USPOL August: Quoth The Donald, "Arzy more."

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USPOL August: Quoth The Donald, "Arzy more."

Goatman Sacks: Apr 4, 2011; by FactsAreUseless

Boon posted:

The best part about this, is that it's Sunday night and already the entire next week is a lost one for Trump.

I'm telling you guys if these Milwaukee riots get worse (and the right is doing everything they can to provoke), it will be this week's news cycle, and it will flock not-racist-but-actually-racist terrified white people to Trump

# ? Aug 15, 2016 04:33

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# ? May 25, 2024 19:19

Combed Thunderclap: Jan 4, 2011

WashPo just released an excellent in-depth story about the private prison where we've been stashing Central American asylum-seekers and the evolution of family detention policies. Sometimes there's no one in the prison, but never fear, the prison operators get paid the same rate regardless.

The US government basically dumped a billion-with-a-b bucks into a private prison company and it's not entirely clear we're really getting anything out of it because of legal mandates that we can't arbitrarily detain asylum-seekers for deterrence alone, especially when they're children.

quote:

As Central Americans surged across the U.S. border two years ago, the Obama administration skipped the standard public bidding process and agreed to a deal that offered generous terms to Corrections Corporation of America, the nation�s largest prison company, to build a massive detention facility for women and children seeking asylum.

The four-year, $1 billion contract � details of which have not been previously disclosed � has been a boon for CCA, which, in an unusual arrangement, gets the money regardless of how many people are detained at the facility. Critics say the government�s policy has been expensive but ineffective. Arrivals of Central American families at the border have continued unabated while court rulings have forced the administration to step back from its original approach to the border surge.

In hundreds of other detention contracts given out by the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency, federal payouts rise and fall in step with the percentage of beds being occupied. But in this case, CCA is paid for 100 percent capacity even if the facility is, say, half full, as it has been in recent months. An ICE spokeswoman, Jennifer Elzea, said that the contracts for the 2,400-bed facility in Dilley and one for a 532-bed family detention center in Karnes City, Tex., given to another company, are �unique� in their payment structures because they provide �a fixed monthly fee for use of the entire facility regardless of the number of residents.�

The rewards for CCA have been enormous: In 2015, the first full year in which the South Texas Family Residential Center was operating, CCA � which operates 74 facilities � made 14 percent of its revenue from that one center while recording record profit. CCA declined to specify the costs of operating the center.

�For the most part, what I see is a very expensive incarceration scheme,� said Rep. Zoe Lofgren (Calif.), the top Democrat on the House�s Immigration and Border Security subcommittee. �It�s costly to the taxpayers and achieves almost nothing, other than trauma to already traumatized individuals.�

The Washington Post based this account on financial documents � including copies of the agreements spelling out the Dilley deal obtained from the National Immigrant Justice Center � and interviews with government lawyers and former immigration and homeland security officials.

CCA�s chief executive, Damon Hininger, told investors in an earnings call this month that ICE recently has begun pushing for a more �cost-effective solution.� Those discussions, he said, are in the �preliminary stage.�

The facility in Dilley � built in the middle of sunbaked scrubland, in what used to be a camp for oil workers � now holds the majority of the country�s mother-and-child detainees. Such asylum seekers, until two years ago, had rarely been held in detention. They instead settled in whatever town they chose, told to eventually appear in court. The Obama administration�s decision to transform that policy � pushed by lawmakers assailing the porous state of the nation�s border � shows how the frenzy of America�s immigration politics can also bolster a private sector that benefits from a get-tough stance.

Before Dilley, CCA�s revenue and profit had been flat for five years. The United States� population of undocumented immigrants had begun to fall, reversing a decades-long trend, and the White House was looking to show greater leniency toward illegal immigrants already in the country. But under pressure to demonstrate that it still took border issues seriously, the administration took a tougher stance toward newly arriving Central Americans.

�This was about the best thing that could happen to private detention since sliced bread,� said Laura Lichter, a Denver immigration and asylum attorney who spent months living out of an old hunting lodge in Dilley.

For the first years of the Obama administration, the United States maintained fewer than 100 beds for family detention. But by the end of 2014, the administration had plans for more than 3,000 beds, and immigration advocates said the ramp-up had broken with America�s tradition of welcoming those seeking a haven from violence. At the Dilley facility, detainees described in interviews an understaffed medical clinic and rampant sickness among children, among other problems.

CCA, a Nashville-based public company valued at $3.18 billion, declined interview requests for this story. The company declined to respond to 28 of 31 written questions. It said that ICE oversees medical care at the facility, and the agency said it was comfortable with the quality of care.

�CCA is committed to treating all individuals in our care with the dignity and respect they deserve while they have due process before immigration courts,� the company said in a five-paragraph statement. �Responding to pressing challenges such [as] this � and doing so in a way that can flexibly meet the government�s changing needs � is a role that CCA has played for federal immigration partners for more than 30 years.�

The Central American asylum seekers were coming mostly from three countries in meltdown � El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras � where gang and drug-related violence have grown so rampant that their murder rates are now three of the world�s five highest, according to U.N. data. By claiming that they feared for their safety, the Central Americans were not subject, as are other unauthorized migrants, to ordinary deportation; they were entitled to press their asylum claims. But Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson, who oversees ICE, heard from border patrollers that the emergency was brewing momentum: People kept coming because word was out that the United States was granting permisos to new arrivals, allowing them to walk right into the country.

According to lawmakers and administration officials, Johnson determined that the United States could cut down the surge only by demonstrating that asylum seekers wouldn�t receive leniency. Johnson won approval from the White House to explore ramping up family detention for asylum seekers on a scale never before seen in America, part of what he called an �aggressive deterrence strategy.� He ordered ICE to figure out a way to make it work.

�This whole thing [was] building and reaching an unsustainable level,� said Christian Marrone, then Johnson�s chief of staff. �We had to take measures to stem the tide.�

Fast action
In a matter of days, ICE patched together a temporary solution. In June 2014, it placed the first batch of Central American mothers and children at a law-enforcement training site in Artesia, N.M. The agency pulled border agents off their usual jobs to help run the facility, and it was wary of hiring new employees and building a permanent facility for a problem it didn�t know how long would last.

�It makes sense that you put some of the risk on a private company,� said Mark Krikorian, executive director at the Center for Immigration Studies, which favors stricter border control.

That�s how ICE made the call to CCA.

The company, founded three decades earlier, had risen from near-bankruptcy thanks to an immigrant detention boom that followed the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Over the following 15 years, the share of revenue that CCA got from federal contracts more than doubled, according to the company�s annual reports. CCA and its only major competitor, the GEO Group, operate nine of the 10 largest immigration detention centers.

Through it all, CCA had pitched Washington on the idea that it could be an antidote to big government spending. One of the company�s co-founders, Thomas Beasley, told Inc. magazine in 1988 that selling prisons was no different from �selling cars, or real estate, or hamburgers.� But behind that pitch, CCA was a mega-sized business � one that pays its chief executive $3.4 million and has on its payroll a slew of former senior government officials.

Immigration activists say CCA had already proved itself incapable of running a family detention center. Between 2006 and 2009 � the only other major U.S. attempt to house women and children seeking asylum � CCA ran a facility in Taylor, Tex. Children wore prison uniforms, received little education and were limited to one hour of play time per day, according to an American Civil Liberties Union lawsuit filed against ICE in 2007 that led months later to a settlement agreement and improved conditions. Months after taking office, Obama closed the facility.

At ICE, officials saw the reboot of family detention as a welcome, if belated, sign of strength on the border. CCA was one of the two companies with the �means� to pull it off, along with GEO, said Phil Miller, an ICE deputy executive associate director who helps to oversee family detention. It could build a new facility quickly and had a legion of staff members with the right security clearances. (GEO, which referred all questions to ICE, ended up refurbishing a smaller facility.)

In forging their deal, CCA and ICE faced one major hurdle: the requirement for a public bidding process � one that threatened to significantly delay construction. So CCA found a workaround. In September 2014, the company approached Eloy, Ariz., an interstate town of 17,000, and asked its officials if they would be willing to amend its existing contract with the town. The company had been operating a detention center for undocumented men in Eloy since 2006. If Eloy modified that contract � essentially, directing CCA to build a new facility in another state, 1,000 miles away � the federal government would be freed from the bidding process. And by reaching out to a town already involved with the industry, CCA could also avoid the political risks that often come when trying to convince a new locality to build a detention center.

The deal is formed by two separate agreements: One between ICE and Eloy, the other between Eloy and CCA. Both were signed on the same day and refer to the family detention center in Dilley. As spelled out in the contracts, ICE provides the money to Eloy; Eloy, in turn, receives a small �administrative fee� for being party to the deal.

According to one Eloy official, county records and an account from the time in a local newspaper, the Eloy Enterprise, a CCA executive pitched the opportunity at a city council meeting in September 2014, saying Eloy could profit from the deal by collecting the payout from Washington, receiving a small percentage � roughly $1.8 million over the four years � and then passing the rest to CCA.

�At the time, there was some reluctance because of the optics� to go along with it, said Harvey Krauss, the Eloy city manager. �But I told everybody, we�re not taking a position; we�re just a fiscal agent. The federal government was in a hurry and this was an expedited way for them to get it done.�

ICE senior leaders signed off on the deal, an official at the agency said.

Mark Fleming, an attorney at the National Immigrant Justice Center, who has reviewed hundreds of federal ICE contracts, said the deal was �singularly unique� and was designed to �avoid transparency.� The center obtained copies of the financial agreements through Arizona open-records laws and gave them to The Post. Several other experts on federal procurement said that while the government can avoid bidding laws in urgent or national security cases, they had never before seen a facility in one state created with the help of a recycled contract from another.

�This is the arrangement of a no-bid contract by twisting and distorting the procurement process past recognition,� said Charles Tiefer, a University of Baltimore law school professor, former solicitor and deputy general counsel of the House of Representatives, who reviewed the deal at the request of The Washington Post.

The contract shows how CCA is assured of a predictable payment, collecting a fixed amount of around $20 million per month � even when the facility�s population drops.

A CCA spokesman, Jonathan Burns, said that the company is required by the contract to provide full staffing and other services no matter the population. But, from the government�s perspective, the contract becomes less cost-effective when fewer people stay in Dilley. When 2,400 people are detained, the government spends what amounts to $285 per day, per person, according to a Post calculation. When the facility is half-full, as it has been in recent months, the government would spend $570. On some days when the facility is nearly empty, as it was for a period in January, the government would be paying multiples more.

At more than 200 non-family immigration detention sites, most per diems are between $60 and $85, according to an ICE document. The daily cost to detain children is higher, ICE officials said, because the government requires a litany of extra standards such as education courses and medicine for nursing mothers.

Critics say ICE could have chosen much more cost-effective alternatives. Ankle monitors, which could track asylum seekers as they await court dates, for example, cost several dollars per day.

Miller, the ICE official, said his agency didn�t push as hard as usual for lower costs because of the �immediacy� of the need.

�If you need an air conditioner today, you�re going to pay what the AC guy tells you,� Miller said. �If it�s December and you want a new AC unit in place by June, you have more time to research.�

The deterrence issue
For the opening of the South Texas Family Residential Center on Dec. 15, 2014, Johnson flew to Dilley and announced that the country�s borders are �not open to illegal migration.� A U.S. government ad blitz in Central America spread a similar message.

But immigration activists cast doubt on whether the United States is getting what it paid for: deterrence.

Border-crossing among asylum-seeking women and children has changed little from two years ago. Over the previous 12 months, according to government statistics, 66,000 �family units� � mostly women and children � have been apprehended at the border, compared with 61,000 in the same period two years earlier.

�What is the root problem? I don�t believe it�s a pull factor so much as a push,� said John Sandweg, a former acting ICE director who left in early 2014, months before the immigration surge. �I do not believe that family detention has been a deterrent.�

Initially, the government had intended Dilley to hold families for months at a time. But that model has been changed by two court decisions in 2015 � one determining that ICE couldn�t detain asylum seekers �simply to deter others,� and one that the government had to abide by a two-decade-old settlement requiring that migrant children be held in the least restrictive environment possible. The judge in that case, Dolly Gee, ordered the government to release children �without unnecessary delay,� and Homeland Security has so far been unsuccessful in appealing.

As a result, stays at Dilley have shortened. Families are typically released in a matter of weeks, after women pass an initial interview establishing they have a �credible� reason to fear returning home. Even when Dilley has many empty beds, families sometimes aren�t detained at all, according to immigration lawyers.

Use of the Dilley facility has become so �haphazard,� said Ian Philabaum, an advocacy coordinator, that in January it was nearly empty, even as Central Americans were arriving at a steady pace along the Texas border.

Government officials no longer say that the Dilley detention center is for deterrence. But Johnson said at a recent roundtable with reporters that family detention, though it had been �reformed considerably,� had still been useful for women and children while the government determined whether they had health problems or posed flight risks.

�I think we need to continue the practice so we�re not just engaging in catch-and-release,� Johnson said.

CCA declined to comment on the evolution of family detention policy. But Hininger, CCA�s chief executive, said in a release for investors that the company was �pleased� with its performance at the start of the year. Its increase in revenue, the company said, was �primarily attributable� to the South Texas Family Residential Center.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 04:35

Bastard Tetris: Apr 27, 2005; L-Shaped; Nap Ghost

Goatman Sacks posted:

I'm telling you guys if these Milwaukee riots get worse (and the right is doing everything they can to provoke), it will be this week's news cycle, and it will flock not-racist-but-actually-racist terrified white people to Drumpf

If those people weren't already Trump voters after Ferguson, they're not going to jump in over this.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 04:37

Goatman Sacks: Apr 4, 2011; by FactsAreUseless

Bastard Tetris posted:

If those people weren't already Trump voters after Ferguson, they're not going to jump in over this.

White people frighten easily, and Ferguson was a long time ago.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 04:39

Nessus: Dec 22, 2003; After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!

Goatman Sacks posted:

I'm telling you guys if these Milwaukee riots get worse (and the right is doing everything they can to provoke), it will be this week's news cycle, and it will flock not-racist-but-actually-racist terrified white people to Trump

The what riots? I haven't seen anything about this except mentions here.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 04:40

negromancer: Aug 20, 2014; by FactsAreUseless

Zeroisanumber posted:

get sideways and weird real quick.

This is the name of my sex tape.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 04:40

citybeatnik: Mar 1, 2013; You Are All
WEIRDOS

Zeroisanumber posted:

Not to get weird and whatnot, but I was raised Catholic and an ISIS attack on the Vatican would result in the weirdest coalition of angry people ever. Like Philippinos tag teaming with Mexicans tag teaming with Italians tag teaming with Austrians tag teaming with the Swiss tag teaming with a bunch of dudes who signed up for the US Marines. It would get sideways and weird real quick.

I'm picturing people in luchadore masks and Swiss Guard uniforms hanging out of the side of a Huey "borrowed" from a US military base in Germany while the pilot screams obscenities over the PA in Tagalong.

Combed Thunderclap posted:

WashPo just released an excellent in-depth story about the private prison where we've been stashing Central American asylum-seekers and the evolution of family detention policies. Sometimes there's no one in the prison, but never fear, the prison operators get paid the same rate regardless.

The US government basically dumped a billion-with-a-b bucks into a private prison company and it's not entirely clear we're really getting anything out of it because of legal mandates that we can't arbitrarily detain asylum-seekers for deterrence alone, especially when they're children.

I'm unable to go in to details as to why but gently caress CCA for all they stand for in general and for this asylum poo poo in particular.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 04:40

Alec Bald Snatch: Sep 12, 2012; by exmarx

Zeroisanumber posted:

Not to get weird and whatnot, but I was raised Catholic and an ISIS attack on the Vatican would result in the weirdest coalition of angry people ever. Like Philippinos tag teaming with Mexicans tag teaming with Italians tag teaming with Austrians tag teaming with the Swiss tag teaming with a bunch of dudes who signed up for the US Marines. It would get sideways and weird real quick.

You'd think they'd just turn the other cheek or something.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 04:40

speng31b: May 8, 2010

Goatman Sacks posted:

White people frighten easily, and Ferguson was a long time ago.

Trump's already got the white vote, at this point it's not about convincing them to be on his side, it's about convincing them to turn up at all. There are major riots what, every 2 weeks now? I don't think this is going to make his supporters more enthusiastic about voting.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 04:44

Mel Mudkiper: Jan 19, 2012; At this point, Mudman abruptly ends the conversation. He usually insists on the last word.

I find it interesting on 538 the Predicted Polls and Now-Cast are within a point of each other and the Polls-plus is totally broken

What an election

# ? Aug 15, 2016 04:43

Combed Thunderclap: Jan 4, 2011

citybeatnik posted:

I'm unable to go in to details as to why but gently caress CCA for all they stand for in general and for this asylum poo poo in particular.

Knowing that they're offering the kind of tempting, instant solution the government just can't pass up to get the increase in revenues they need is the worst part. Especially given that they were on the verge of being wiped from existence prior to 9/11.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 04:44

Sarmhan: Nov 1, 2011

Mel Mudkiper posted:

I find it interesting on 538 the Predicted Polls and Now-Cast are within a point of each other and the Polls-plus is totally broken

What an election

The polls have been consistently awful for Trump for the last 2 weeks so the models are converging. The polls-plus is just super conservative.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 04:46

Gen. Ripper: Jan 12, 2013

Goatman Sacks posted:

I'm telling you guys if these Milwaukee riots get worse (and the right is doing everything they can to provoke), it will be this week's news cycle, and it will flock not-racist-but-actually-racist terrified white people to Trump

At this rate I'm pretty sure Trump would piss it all away in a fit of barely-disguised glee that people are dead in a way that will help his presidential campaign. Remember Orlando?

# ? Aug 15, 2016 04:47

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Boon posted:

The best part about this, is that it's Sunday night and already the entire next week is a lost one for Trump. Especially if Adam Weinstein is correct and the hits keep coming.

E: Yeah, IMO an attack on the Vatican would be tantamount to 9/11 or worse. Huge swathes of South America, Asia, and Africa would be DEEPLY upset. Catholics, whether you believe it or not, are also the largest religious sect in the United States and there would be plenty of non-Catholics ready to kick some rear end if it meant bombing brown people.

I'm an athiest and if ISIS or someone attacked the Vatican I'd be 100% for violent intervention. The Pope is cool, even if we don't agree on everything.

Combed Thunderclap posted:

Sometimes there's no one in the prison, but never fear, the prison operators get paid the same rate regardless.

Uh, shouldn't they get the same amount of money regardless? Otherwise you are incentivizing them locking people up.

Like there are lots of things to criticize but fee for service whether you use it or not isn't one of them here.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 04:48

speng31b: May 8, 2010

axeil posted:

I'm an athiest and if ISIS or someone attacked the Vatican I'd be 100% for violent intervention. The Pope is cool, even if we don't agree on everything.

Funny I'm pretty sure the pope you're rising so atheistically to the defense of would be 100% against it.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 04:50

ZobarStyl: Oct 24, 2005; This isn't a war, it's a moider.

Oxxidation posted:

If this Russia thing gains legs I think Assange is going to be out of the picture as far as the election goes. The "Wikileaks is a Russian mouthpiece" thing was a wild haymaker thrown by the Democrats in an attempt to deflect the damage of the DNC leaks, but between Trump's big fat loving mouth and Manafort's publicized pro-Russian ties, any future bombshells are going to be duds.

They were always duds - for one, if Assange had anything of value, he'd be screaming it from the embassy rooftop this very second. Neither he nor the Russians passing him data have the patience to release things strategically. Of course, this all assumes that the clumsy GRU/FSB hacking of the DNC was just the beginning of the Russians finally uncovering all the horrible misdeeds Hillary Clinton hasn't actually committed.

For nearly three decades, the GOPe has beaten off to their John Grisham inspired fantasy of Hillary finally being indicted for...something, anything. It's partly projection from the Denny Hastert types that actually have buried bodies out there, but mostly just a side effect of a system of epistemic closure based on hatred, just-world thinking and FYGM. They honestly just don't believe that reality would let Hillary Clinton become president. The fact that she's actually a good person who didn't leave a trail of scandal behind her just doesn't comport, so they'll continue believe there's some golden chest hidden deep underground that contains 4K video of Hillary vivisecting a golden retriever with a hammer and sickle while praying to Alinsky (PBUH).

Semi-related, but I'd also argue that the concept of an October Surprise seems weirdly out of place in this election. The idea is typically that an otherwise close race (think Bush v Kerry) is tipped by the release of some insane revelation that the candidate doesn't have the time to clamp down before the election. Such an idea will likely seem quaint on October 20th, after Trump skips the 2nd and 3rd debates, blacklists all media outside of FNC and Breitbart and calls for open insurrection against all things 'crooked.'

# ? Aug 15, 2016 04:55

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

speng31b posted:

Funny I'm pretty sure the pope you're rising so atheistically to the defense of would be 100% against it.

Well if he's dead he can't do much about it now can he?

Plus the American Empire is Good for America and Americans and this would be a chance to get back in the world's good graces.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 04:54

Pakled: Aug 6, 2011; WE ARE SMART

axeil posted:

I'm an athiest and if ISIS or someone attacked the Vatican I'd be 100% for violent intervention. The Pope is cool, even if we don't agree on everything.

We're already violently intervening against ISIS though. :v:

# ? Aug 15, 2016 04:56

Nessus: Dec 22, 2003; After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!

I doubt Daesh wants to attack the Vatican anyway, at least in specific and in so far as they have a particular agenda. That just gets them bombed flat, it doesn't insert a wedge in islamic communities abroad.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 04:56

citybeatnik: Mar 1, 2013; You Are All
WEIRDOS

Combed Thunderclap posted:

Knowing that they're offering the kind of tempting, instant solution the government just can't pass up to get the increase in revenues they need is the worst part. Especially given that they were on the verge of being wiped from existence prior to 9/11.

I'm hoping that the MJ article and this will serve to drive a stake through their loving heart.

speng31b posted:

Funny I'm pretty sure the pope you're rising so atheistically to the defense of would be 100% against it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnuGC3reAkc

The Vatican also came up with a theological argument for why assassinating Hitler would be less sinful than the murder itself, and was taking steps to carry it out before it all went tits-up when WW2 started. Don't gently caress with Jesuits.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 04:58

woke wedding drone: Jun 1, 2003; by exmarx; Fun Shoe

speng31b posted:

Funny I'm pretty sure the pope you're rising so atheistically to the defense of would be 100% against it.

So, in that case somebody should suggest to Francis that the only way to reduce the loss of innocent lives is for him to prevail over his attackers at any cost. In white Jesuit battle armor

# ? Aug 15, 2016 04:59

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Nessus posted:

I doubt Daesh wants to attack the Vatican anyway, at least in specific and in so far as they have a particular agenda. That just gets them bombed flat, it doesn't insert a wedge in islamic communities abroad.

Well they keep losing ground because our military campaign is working and are resorting to more and more crazy off-the wall homegrown ideas. I admit it's probably a bit tricky to radicalize an Italian and get them to attack St. Peter's or whatever, but we're in purse Tom Clancy fanfic at this point.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 04:59

Ms Adequate: Oct 30, 2011; Baby even when I'm dead and gone
You will always be my only one, my only one
When the night is calling
No matter who I become
You will always be my only one, my only one, my only one
When the night is calling

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

We are now halfway through August and Trump's entire campaign is still trending downward. He is literally running out of time to even stabilize things because if he goes into September with this stank of loser all over him he'll never be able to make up ground.

I'm not sure that it's remotely salvageable now to be honest. He's running out of time, but more than that, he has no path to actually recover anyway. Even if we pretend that Trump becomes the best candidate he can personally be and are very generous with the definition of that, his 'best' is going to be bombastic, shooting from the hip, and self-centered. The question isn't "can Trump pivot?" (putting aside that no he clearly can't), it's what can he pivot to? He'd still be loudmouthed and talk without thinking even if he managed to rein in his worst impulses and stop him saying poo poo about Obama literally not-being-sarcastic founding ISIS or having Clinton shot or whatever.

But even if he did turn into the best version of Trump for the General, there's weeks of gaffes, unforced mistakes, factually untrue nonsense, and more, to say nothing of everything he said before the RNC actually happened. The Dems must have about four thousand different avenues to attack him and 90% of them will be in Trump's own words. Unless he is filmed and witnessed personally averting 9/11 2.0 nothing he does will matter much because the other side will keep that stank stuck right to him.

And yeah 538 is great, polls-plus now has Clinton at about 30% chance of winning in Montana, South Dakota, Mississippi, 27.5%-ish in Alaska and Indiana, and around 25% in Utah, North Dakota, and loving Texas. As I've said before the GOP seeing one or two of those going blue will make their crisis an order of magnitude worse, losing Georgia is bad enough but jeeze. It really might be time for her to go 50-state and crush Trump and the GOP everywhere.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 04:59

iospace: Jan 19, 2038

Goatman Sacks posted:

I'm telling you guys if these Milwaukee riots get worse (and the right is doing everything they can to provoke), it will be this week's news cycle, and it will flock not-racist-but-actually-racist terrified white people to Trump

Doubt it. They're already over on the right.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 05:00

CelestialScribe: Jan 16, 2008

Mister Adequate posted:

I'm not sure that it's remotely salvageable now to be honest. He's running out of time, but more than that, he has no path to actually recover anyway. Even if we pretend that Trump becomes the best candidate he can personally be and are very generous with the definition of that, his 'best' is going to be bombastic, shooting from the hip, and self-centered. The question isn't "can Trump pivot?" (putting aside that no he clearly can't), it's what can he pivot to? He'd still be loudmouthed and talk without thinking even if he managed to rein in his worst impulses and stop him saying poo poo about Obama literally not-being-sarcastic founding ISIS or having Clinton shot or whatever.

But even if he did turn into the best version of Trump for the General, there's weeks of gaffes, unforced mistakes, factually untrue nonsense, and more, to say nothing of everything he said before the RNC actually happened. The Dems must have about four thousand different avenues to attack him and 90% of them will be in Trump's own words. Unless he is filmed and witnessed personally averting 9/11 2.0 nothing he does will matter much because the other side will keep that stank stuck right to him.

And yeah 538 is great, polls-plus now has Clinton at about 30% chance of winning in Montana, South Dakota, Mississippi, 27.5%-ish in Alaska and Indiana, and around 25% in Utah, North Dakota, and loving Texas. As I've said before the GOP seeing one or two of those going blue will make their crisis an order of magnitude worse, losing Georgia is bad enough but jeeze. It really might be time for her to go 50-state and crush Trump and the GOP everywhere.

She is not going to win all 50 states. Jesus Christ.

I'm as Arzy as they come and even I know she's going to win (albeit with 270-something votes, not over 300).

She might win Georgia. Might. Anything else? No way, sorry. Not going to happen.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 05:03

Crowsbeak: Oct 9, 2012; by Azathoth; Lipstick Apathy

there wolf posted:

I'm sorry but 'it happened' is not the same thing as ' it was a mass cultural custom done constantly for every god all over the Greek/Roman world.' Human sacrifice was perishingly rare in Rome; overall they found it distasteful and barbaric, and had it outlawed. Again, if you sincerely cared about this you'd portray it accurately instead of exaggerating and inventing stories to feel self-righteous about.

I never said it was common, but it did happen, and it hardly reflects the Gibbonite fantasy certain liberals embrace. Also personally when it comes to private prisons like CCA. I am perfectly fine with making it a crime to be the head of such a company, and make it so heading such a company gets you declared Hostis Humani Generis. Really thinking up private prisons should also get you that.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 05:03

speng31b: May 8, 2010

citybeatnik posted:

The Vatican also came up with a theological argument for why assassinating Hitler would be less sinful than the murder itself, and was taking steps to carry it out before it all went tits-up when WW2 started. Don't gently caress with Jesuits.

I'm well aware of how the Jesuits roll, I was educated by them. Still pretty sure Francis wouldn't be cool with a global campaign of vengeance in retaliation for a terrorist attack on the Vatican.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 05:04

computer parts: Nov 18, 2010; PLEASE CLAP

CelestialScribe posted:

She is not going to win all 50 states. Jesus Christ.

I'm as Arzy as they come and even I know she's going to win (albeit with 270-something votes, not over 300).

Considering Obama got 330, I think that's still a little pessimistic.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 05:05

woke wedding drone: Jun 1, 2003; by exmarx; Fun Shoe

Crowsbeak posted:

I never said it was common, but it did happen, and it hardly reflects the Gibbonite fantasy certain liberals embrace.

Harambe was a gorilla, not a gibbon.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 05:06

CelestialScribe: Jan 16, 2008

computer parts posted:

Considering Obama got 330, I think that's still a little pessimistic.

She's going to lose North Carolina, Ohio and Florida.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 05:08

citybeatnik: Mar 1, 2013; You Are All
WEIRDOS

speng31b posted:

I'm well aware of how the Jesuits roll, I was educated by them. Still pretty sure Francis wouldn't be cool with a global campaign of vengeance in retaliation for a terrorist attack on the Vatican.

Pax man, pax - I wasn't saying that he would. I was referring more to the Church of Spies book I read during my trip to the Vatican. Which, as a lapsed Catholic turned agnostic was still a hell of a place to visit.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 05:07

Geostomp: Oct 22, 2008; Unite: MASH!!
~They've got the bad guys on the run!~

VitalSigns posted:

The party that's out of power is free to be totally irresponsible if they want to because they're not making the decisions nor facing the consequences, that's all this is. When Bush was in power of course he was very careful to not insult Muslims or slam their religion because obviously we need the support of Muslim allies and partners in the middle east.

But after Bush's preemptive war turned out to be a disaster, Republicans don't have any other ideas for how to win against ISIS and Al-Qaeda. If they criticize Obama's policies like Romney/Ryan did in 2012 then they have to answer the follow-up "okay what would you do different" (Romney's answer here was stammering and then admitting he'd do the same thing as Obama but vaguely better somehow). Since that poo poo doesn't convince anyone to vote for you, they've decided instead to excite and energize white nationalists by accusing Obama of being sympathetic to terrorists or being a terrorist himself. Romney tried this with "he won't call it terrorism" but hosed it up because Obama did call it terrorism and Romney got fact-checked at the debate.

Thus the impossible test: they know Obama won't say it because it does nothing and will only piss off our Muslim allies, so they can claim this is proof he's a terrorist and angry up people who already want to believe that. Of course the obvious question is "what will they do if they catch that car, get elected, and have to work with the allies they've spent the last year insulting on international news", well the problem is all the Republicans capable of thinking that far ahead got destroyed in the primaries when Trump took 50 years of Republican dogwhistling to its logical conclusion and stole all the votes.

TLDR: The Republicans took advantage of their freedom to be irresponsible to increase their own power to the detriment of the country, this has now hilariously backfired and some idiot demagogue stole that power because he was willing to be so irresponsible that it's a detriment to the Republican party.

The best part is that even if, by some dark miracle, they did take full power again, they'd be eaten alive by the rabid base they cultivated for so long. They beat the drum for hating government, compromise, and the Other for so long that making the kind of moves necessary to actually rule a nation would be taken as heresy by the very rubes they worked so hard to fool. They can only pretend to be "pure" for them so long as they have a Democrat to blame. When they don't and actually have to do something, then it all comes crashing down on them.

If anything, they're lucky Trump is imploding it on them now rather than later because that would give their rebelling movement time to coalesce into something even worse than the Tea Party.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 05:09

Zwabu: Aug 7, 2006

CelestialScribe posted:

She is not going to win all 50 states. Jesus Christ.

I'm as Arzy as they come and even I know she's going to win (albeit with 270-something votes, not over 300).

She might win Georgia. Might. Anything else? No way, sorry. Not going to happen.

If she won GA she'd definitely be way over 350.

Because of the way the states tilt, if she won GA, the national party alignment "thermometer" means she almost certainly already won NC and every "usual" swing state like OH and FL. (And she's not losing PA, Trump summoning his army of flying monkeys nonwithstanding). Even if you give him NV and IA she'd be at 351 in that scenario:

http://www.270towin.com/maps/1lKz8

And definitely over 300.

Also, 270 is the threshold to win. If you were only predicting less than 280 EVs you are predicting a race with a high probability for a Trump win, not a race that Clinton would "definitely" be winning.

Zwabu fucked around with this message at 05:13 on Aug 15, 2016

# ? Aug 15, 2016 05:10

Epic High Five: Jun 5, 2004

Zwabu posted:

If she won GA she'd definitely be way over 350.

Because of the way the states tilt, if she won GA, the national party alignment "thermometer" means she almost certainly already won NC and every "usual" swing state like OH and FL. (And she's not losing PA, Trump summoning his army of flying monkeys nonwithstanding). Even if you give him NV and IA she'd be at 351 in that scenario:

http://www.270towin.com/maps/1lKz8

And definitely over 300.

Are you factoring in that Trump's going to take CA and NY?

# ? Aug 15, 2016 05:11

CelestialScribe: Jan 16, 2008

Zwabu posted:

If she won GA she'd definitely be way over 350.

Because of the way the states tilt, if she won GA, the national party alignment "thermometer" means she almost certainly already won NC and every "usual" swing state like OH and FL. (And she's not losing PA, Trump summoning his army of flying monkeys nonwithstanding). Even if you give him NV and IA she'd be at 351 in that scenario:

http://www.270towin.com/maps/1lKz8

And definitely over 300.

This is my prediction:

http://www.270towin.com/maps/voLlJ

# ? Aug 15, 2016 05:12

Trabisnikof: Dec 24, 2005

CelestialScribe posted:

She's going to lose North Carolina, Ohio and Florida.

Watching you back peddle from this will be so great.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 05:12

The Glumslinger: Sep 24, 2008; Coach Nagy, you want me to throw to WHAT side of the field?; Hair Elf

Geostomp posted:

The best part is that even if, by some dark miracle, they did take full power again, they'd be eaten alive by the rabid base they cultivated for so long. They beat the drum for hating government, compromise, and the Other for so long that making the kind of moves necessary to actually rule a nation would be taken as heresy by the very rubes they worked so hard to fool. They can only pretend to be "pure" for them so long as they have a Democrat to blame. When they don't and actually have to do something, then it all comes crashing down on them.

If anything, they're lucky Trump is imploding it on them now rather than later because that would give their rebelling movement time to coalesce into something even worse than the Tea Party.

Regardless of how quickly they would get primaried for instituting Full Anarchy Now!, they would still have time to completely wreck the social safety net of this country in horrible ways, that would take decades to undo. Remember how Bush's big thing in 2000 was about privatizing social security? Imagine that, but for everything

# ? Aug 15, 2016 05:13

Ogmius815: Aug 25, 2005; centrism is a hell of a drug

There's always room to Arzy. Right now I'm Arzying over Russian hacks. Arzy today Arzy tomorrow, Arzy in every election until I'm dead.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 05:15

Geostomp: Oct 22, 2008; Unite: MASH!!
~They've got the bad guys on the run!~

The Glumslinger posted:

Regardless of how quickly they would get primaried for instituting Full Anarchy Now!, they would still have time to completely wreck the social safety net of this country in horrible ways, that would take decades to undo. Remember how Bush's big thing in 2000 was about privatizing social security? Imagine that, but for everything

Oh, of course. I live in a red state, so I know that wrecking everything is a major goal for the GOP.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 05:16

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# ? May 25, 2024 19:19

FuzzySlippers: Feb 6, 2009

I know the conventional wisdom is that when white people get scared they run to the Republican party but is Trump really the safe law and order candidate? The crazy man with chaotic rallies, who calls for his political opponents to be killed or hacked by a foreign power, has deep ties to Russian oligarchs, etc?

# ? Aug 15, 2016 05:15

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USPOL August: Quoth The Donald, "Arzy more."

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