|
ComradeCosmobot posted:The USC/LA Times Daybreak poll has Trump back in the lead again. And even though this poll sample shows Trump winning, by 54% to 39% their pollees expect Hillary to win. So even a Trump-leaning selection sees the writing on the wall.
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2016 23:19
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 28, 2024 16:27 |
|
|
Not that it matters but; Lost Generation 1883 - 1900 World War 1 Veterans. They're (mostly) all dead now. Slightly shorter than a usual generation due to... Greatest Generation 1900 - 1924 Came of Age during Great Depression, Fought in World War 2. Longer of a Generation because the qualifying factors are so broad. Silent Generation 1924 -1944 The ones who actually hosed everything up, but pass the blame onto... Baby Boomers 1944 - 1964 Accused of loving everything up, certainly contributed to the loving up of everything, but the worst stuff was done by the Silents and the oldest of the Boomers Generation X 1964 - 1984 Also known as the MTV generation, seen as the last "good generation" by most Boomers and Silents. Millennials (formerly know as Generation Y) 1984 - 2001 My generation, accused of being lazy and entitled. First generation to be born with computers and internet being prevalent. Shorter since the end of the generation is considered 9/11/2001, after that you are considered to be... Generation Z 2001 - 2021 Born AFTER 9/11/2001, other than that ????
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2016 23:19
|
|
|
There are lots of black boomers. What are we to do with them?
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2016 23:22
|
|
|
GalacticAcid posted:There are lots of black boomers. What are we to do with them? Generational descriptions only apply to middle and upper middle class whites.
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2016 23:25
|
|
|
ComradeCosmobot posted:The USC/LA Times Daybreak poll has Trump back in the lead again. I'm the sudden unexplained spike of Black Voters for Trump.
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2016 23:26
|
|
|
happyhippy posted:I'm the sudden unexplained spike of Black Voters for Trump. and check dat MoE on that one Looks like they got tired of ~10% Black support so they only polled like 20 that they knew would be friendly
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2016 23:28
|
|
|
Can we go back to name chat instead of discussing an insipid and condescending pseudoscience that tries to give justification to olds for their head-in-rear end prejudice? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HFwok9SlQQ VV This is cool too, thank you 
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2016 23:28
|
|
|
Basically every point in this Trump speech so far has been an out and out lie or things like "The unemployment rated doubled on his watch" speaking of Tim Kaine, who was governor of VA from 2006-2010.
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2016 23:28
|
|
|
Anyone have the new Trump ads and their markets?
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2016 23:28
|
|
|
Namechat was actually fresh, compared to Gawker & generation-chat. Those are the same derails by the same users making the same posts every time it comes back up.
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2016 23:30
|
|
|
Honestly, we should just lock the thread on the weekends. It'd be for the best.
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2016 23:32
|
|
|
Fox Ironic posted:Silent Generation 1924 -1944 Yes and no. The Silent Generation were the ones nominally responsible for Nixon (since the In short, generations are a land of contrasts. ComradeCosmobot fucked around with this message at 23:35 on Aug 20, 2016 |
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2016 23:33
|
|
|
Trabisnikof posted:And before people poo poo on this as "bad methodology" you're wrong. The methodology is perfectly fine, the kinds of conclusion from this method is different than others. Sure, but the title of the article is "Where the presidential race stands today" and a little further below we have "Who would you vote for? We ask voters..." when it should be something like "Where the race stands according to a republican leaning sample of voters" and so on. It's all super sound methodologically, and yet it doesn't really emphasize the most important point enough, so that somebody who doesn't pay 100% attention to all the content couldn't be forgiven to read this as a regular poll. It wouldn't even technically be wrong for someone to run a news story that "USC/LA Times poll has Trump in the lead".
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2016 23:33
|
|
|
Fox Ironic posted:Generation Z 2001 - 2021 AKA The Worst Generation that will blame us for everything!
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2016 23:34
|
|
|
SSNeoman posted:Can we go back to name chat instead of discussing an insipid and condescending pseudoscience that tries to give justification to olds for their head-in-rear end prejudice? You have a very bizarre strawman for what generations are, dude.
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2016 23:35
|
|
|
flavor posted:It wouldn't even technically be wrong for someone to run a news story that "USC/LA Times poll has Trump in the lead". Which is exactly what Matt Drudge is doing right now.
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2016 23:35
|
|
|
It's technically correct 
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2016 23:36
|
|
|
ComradeCosmobot posted:The USC/LA Times Daybreak poll has Trump back in the lead again. Honestly gently caress that "poll". Trump doesn't completely poo poo the bed for a few days and Clinton sits back and does nothing but coast and they have a 4 point shift? I just don't even know who could possibly be so easily swayed at this point in the election even, with everything that has happened thus far. I don't think it's any coincidence that that is the one poll that uses totally different methodology and happens to be the one poll with different results from the consensus.
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2016 23:39
|
|
|
Here's kind of a fun thought experiment for you guys: Suppose for a moment Johnson get 15% of the vote and they let him on the debate stage. How would this influence the election?
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2016 23:43
|
|
|
happyhippy posted:I'm the sudden unexplained spike of Black Voters for Trump. 
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2016 23:47
|
|
|
SSNeoman posted:Here's kind of a fun thought experiment for you guys: Suppose for a moment Johnson get 15% of the vote and they let him on the debate stage. How would this influence the election? It would help expose the complete sociopathic idiocy of Libertarianism to vast swaths of the US populace.
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2016 23:58
|
|
|
sarmhan posted:Baby Boomers are 1946-1964? I claim to be a boomer as both my parents were born in 1926 and served in WWII though I was born in 1967. Full socialism now pls.
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2016 00:01
|
|
|
SSNeoman posted:Here's kind of a fun thought experiment for you guys: Suppose for a moment Johnson get 15% of the vote and they let him on the debate stage. How would this influence the election? I think this would drive up votes for the libertarian party by partially legitimizing them. Those votes would probably come from the Never Trump crowd because they have a fair amount of ideological overlap and are looking for someone else to vote for. This wouldn't really effect the presidential election, since Trump will probably lose that anyways. A lot of those same people might vote Republican down ballot though, whereas maybe they would have stayed home otherwise. So my guess is that it might strengthen the Republicans in non-presidential races. Also it would probably move the conversation rightwards as Clinton is forced to talk about her opinions on auditing the fed, etc.
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2016 00:01
|
|
|
SSNeoman posted:Here's kind of a fun thought experiment for you guys: Suppose for a moment Johnson get 15% of the vote and they let him on the debate stage. How would this influence the election? I imagine like O Malley (sp) in the d primary debates, ignore
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2016 00:02
|
|
|
SSNeoman posted:It's technically correct The best kind of correct.
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2016 00:02
|
|
|
happyhippy posted:I'm the sudden unexplained spike of Black Voters for Trump. that is an epically bad poll
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2016 00:03
|
|
|
SSNeoman posted:Here's kind of a fun thought experiment for you guys: Suppose for a moment Johnson get 15% of the vote and they let him on the debate stage. How would this influence the election? Trump would love it, since then he wouldn't have to debate Hillary one on one. He's always better at multi-person debates since he was weasel out of everything and doesn't even pretend to bother addressing the question.
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2016 00:04
|
|
|
Trump's probably going to try to refuse to attend unless the Greens and Libertarians are invited It would be doubly great for him because both Stein and Johnson would pretty much only attack Clinton because Stein is craven and Johnson is a coward like the GOP was the first time around with Trump Epic High Five fucked around with this message at 00:07 on Aug 21, 2016 |
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2016 00:05
|
|
|
Trabisnikof posted:And before people poo poo on this as "bad methodology" you're wrong. quote:We ask voters what the chance is that they will vote for Trump, Clinton or someone else, using a 0-100 scale. The overall level of support for each candidate reflects the weighted average of those responses.
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2016 00:07
|
|
|
Kennel posted:AKA The Worst Generation that will blame us for everything! They are going to be bitching on the hyper-internet about how horribly conservative and regressive those old-fart millennials are (and how much better things will be when they all due off.)
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2016 00:21
|
|
|
Mel Mudkiper posted:I tell my dad the world will be better when him and his peers are dead all the time
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2016 00:24
|
|
|
BarbarianElephant posted:They are going to be bitching on the hyper-internet about how horribly conservative and regressive those old-fart millennials are (and how much better things will be when they all due off.) If we don't stop Trump, they'll be right
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2016 00:25
|
|
|
 time! My local news reported that Hillary has to testify under oath to judicial watch about the emails
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2016 00:26
|
|
|
flavor posted:Sure, but the title of the article is "Where the presidential race stands today" and a little further below we have "Who would you vote for? We ask voters..." when it should be something like "Where the race stands according to a republican leaning sample of voters" and so on. No polling empahasises the weakness in the polls. You don't see likely voter polls from PPP with press releases headlines like "if we guessed the future turnout right, Clinton is up +7." WithoutTheFezOn posted:Tracking the same people isn't the bad part. This is the bad part: That's not bad, that's just not what you want to be and its not directly comparable to other polls. It gives a measure of voter sentiment that avoids the false choice dichotomy that plagues "if the election was held today" for example. berserker posted:Honestly gently caress that "poll". Trump doesn't completely poo poo the bed for a few days and Clinton sits back and does nothing but coast and they have a 4 point shift? I just don't even know who could possibly be so easily swayed at this point in the election even, with everything that has happened thus far. Yes the fact that the method is different and the result is different is very much the useful and valuable fact here. All polls are flawed instruments and a diversity of flaws gives us a better picture when combined together. On the topic of shock that a week of boring Trump could produce that swing. Doesn't this thread constantly crow about the short memory of some voters? That's the short memory swing in action.
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2016 00:29
|
|
|
Trabisnikof posted:No polling empahasises the weakness in the polls. You don't see likely voter polls from PPP with press releases headlines like "if we guessed the future turnout right, Clinton is up +7." Black Voters aren't going 14% for Trump, it's a bad poll. Sorry.
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2016 00:31
|
|
|
Lotka Volterra posted:Black Voters aren't going 14% for Trump, it's a bad poll. Sorry.
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2016 00:33
|
|
|
Kilroy posted:What do they have to lose? They will be treated humanely
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2016 00:33
|
|
|
Lotka Volterra posted:Black Voters aren't going 14% for Trump, it's a bad poll. Sorry. Good thing the poll says the weighted average of black voters is that they give themselves a 13.6% chance of voting for him. While that difference might be too subtle for some, it is a useful and different data point. Also note that the uncertainty for black voters jumped up significantly this month, so it may still be noise. A challenge with all trackers.
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2016 00:37
|
|
|
Politico piece on the Reagan Administration's contingency plan to round up and intern legal migrants from eight Muslim countries. whither the Principled Republicans of Olde??
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2016 00:37
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 28, 2024 16:27 |
|
|
GalacticAcid posted:Politico piece on the Reagan Administration's contingency plan to round up and intern legal migrants from eight Muslim countries. Oh what could've been if the manufactured War on Drugs hadn't worked out so amazingly for them
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2016 00:38
|
|