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Epic High Five posted:They will be treated humanely  Hell his non white supporters have been kicked out of his rallies because anyone not white is suspicious as gently caress. Edit: god I have the worst snipes in D&D threads. 
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Aug 21, 2016 00:38
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achillesforever6 posted:I tell him the world will be better when all the non Union Republican Boomers are dead; then he gets mad because I call people from Pennsyltucky hicks who gently caress up everything about this state and that I don't give a poo poo about coal miners losing their jobs because some industries are meant to fade away like the Ice Industry or Whaling. Big Ice is coming back in a big way if this climate change poo poo keeps up
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Aug 21, 2016 00:38
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Trabisnikof posted:No polling empahasises the weakness in the polls. Representative polls do mention their margin of error. This poll is just bullshit that's easily abused, even if it's "technically and methodologically correct" a million times. That all polls are flawed is just a cheap deflection from you, sort of like "well every approximation of Pi is bad, 3.1415926 is flawed, so let's just use 3 for everything".
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Aug 21, 2016 00:39
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right around the time USPOL starts talking about various lovely polls is when I start to get my  on againOther polls have shown a softening of support for Clinton by a few percent in the past week - it isn't just this one. And, while that poll does not do a good job of showing the current stage of the race, and the MoE is high, I don't think it's a coincidence that Trump is seeing an uptick in support among black voters immediately after making a direct appeal to them - regardless of how shallow and tone-deaf his words may have been. That uptick is black Republicans who were waiting for an excuse to support Trump and now they've got it. I'm confident Hillary is going to win, but a landslide is looking a lot less likely, and with that so goes the House and probably the Senate.
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Aug 21, 2016 00:40
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Dr.Zeppelin posted:If the MtG twitter account is any indication the most common planeswalker kid name is Liliana Niton posted:I have a friend with a sister in her 20s named Elspeth, actually This is the dopest thing I've learned from this thread
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Aug 21, 2016 00:42
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It's just the Scottish variant of Elizabeth.
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flavor posted:Representative polls do mention their margin of error. This poll is just bullshit that's easily abused, even if it's "technically and methodologically correct" a million times. That all polls are flawed is just a cheap deflection from you, sort of like "well every approximation of Pi is bad, 3.1415926 is flawed, so let's just use 3 for everything". This poll mentions the margin of error? Did you look at USC's website they host about the poll? The method isn't bad and the fact the numbers don't match other polls with other methods doesn't condemn this poll but provide a greater composite view of the electorate.
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Aug 21, 2016 00:43
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Trabisnikof posted:Good thing the poll says the weighted average of black voters is that they give themselves a 13.6% chance of voting for him. How is this at all useful if it's producing polls that in no way actually reflect voting patterns? quote:While that difference might be too subtle for some, it is a useful and different data point. lol gently caress off
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Aug 21, 2016 00:44
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Fox Ironic posted:Generation X 1964 - 1984 Oh, no, they hated us in the early 90s and griped endlessly about us in the media. Millennials were supposed to be the "good ones" who would right the ship.
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Aug 21, 2016 00:46
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Lotka Volterra posted:How is this at all useful if it's producing polls that in no way actually reflect voting patterns? Do you have any evidence that using this method in the past has produced noticeably worse results than other polling methods? Besides, a more fine grain understanding of the electorate is valuable. Let's say that the jump in self-described probability of voting for Trump among Black voters is sustained. Even if they vote for Clinton in Nov, it would be vastly interesting to partisans to understand why they started giving themselves the mental space to vote Trump. Did security resonate? Clinton corruption? Or maybe this is a normal trend and voters love to pretend they get "swayed" by the horserace? And that's one small way having a diversity of methods is valuable. Edit: I agree reporting on tracking polls is lovely, but the issue isn't the method it is how the media summarizes it. Trabisnikof fucked around with this message at 00:50 on Aug 21, 2016 |
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Aug 21, 2016 00:48
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Kilroy posted:right around the time USPOL starts talking about various lovely polls is when I start to get my Actually the current aggregate of the state polls has Clinton with her highest win % so far at 89%. http://election.princeton.edu/
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Aug 21, 2016 00:54
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Kilroy posted:right around the time USPOL starts talking about various lovely polls is when I start to get my I think it's that he hasn't had some sort of gaffe in the last week or so. Not a bad one at any rate. Sure people under him are rolling in their own poo poo but he's been conspicuously quiet on the national stage and has instead been doing rallies. Also keep in mind that August is normally fairly quiet at this time of the month. We're far past the DNC/RNC. Normally the debates would be the next thing to look forward to but I think Trump is looking for any reason to back out of them without further tanking his own numbers. As someone from the thread mentioned he may try to get Johnson/Stein in a four way debate in order to give himself cover while they attack her. He can speak less and criticize more. He can then criticize Hillary for not wanting free and open debates with two candidates that together barely break 10% of the electorate in a first past the poll system. Hillary refuses and then Trump can declare that "look, politics is rigged" and just not show up for any debates. They both look bad, but Trump doesn't display that he doesn't understand how politics work on stage. He loses, but he loses less than if he was called on the fact that he knows nothing.
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Aug 21, 2016 00:55
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Trabisnikof posted:Edit: I agree reporting on tracking polls is lovely, but the issue isn't the method it is how the media summarizes it. Tracking polls are fine. What isn't fine is taking a metric that is essentially a sliding scale of voter enthusiasm for a candidate and then attempting to translate it to actual support in percentages. Those things aren't 1:1, and it shows by how far off this poll has been off from every other.
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Aug 21, 2016 00:57
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Don't they count any show of support for Trump, but only "enthusiastic" support for Clinton? Even Boosted was mocking this poll back around the RNC, but now he and other Trumpsters are forced to drink from this fetid pond and tell us it is finest Trump
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Aug 21, 2016 00:59
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iospace posted:
This is starting to feel like an episode of Jojo GOP: "We have you now, you must testify under Oath" Hillary: "Yare yare daze..."
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Aug 21, 2016 01:01
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time! My local news reported that Hillary has to testify under oath to judicial watch about the emails
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Trabisnikof posted:This poll mentions the margin of error? Is this supposed to be a question? I'm asking because some people end statements in question marks here. Trabisnikof posted:Did you look at USC's website they host about the poll? The point was that you had posted that other polls don't emphasize their weaknesses. I would contend that they do, that was all. Trabisnikof posted:Edit: I agree reporting on tracking polls is lovely, but the issue isn't the method it is how the media summarizes it. Okay, you're getting it now. Also, some of "the media" that's warping this is the LA Times itself. They should have published this with a huge caveat in the first sentence.
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Aug 21, 2016 01:02
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Mel Mudkiper posted:This is starting to feel like an episode of Jojo
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Aug 21, 2016 01:03
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iospace posted:
The piece I read said she has to respond, in writing if she wishes, to their questions that they have yet to submit and she has like a month to respond once they submit.
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Aug 21, 2016 01:05
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Epic High Five posted:Don't they count any show of support for Trump, but only "enthusiastic" support for Clinton? That's what someone claimed the last time it was talked about.
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Aug 21, 2016 01:07
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flavor posted:Is this supposed to be a question? I'm asking because some people end statements in question marks here. Yeah they all post their margin of errors. But do you have any examples of say ABC or MSNBC conducted polling that sets the standard for honestly reporting results in your eyes? I can believe smaller/ngo organizations do, but I doubt there are many big media companies that start the reporting on their own polling with big caveats. Because in my opinion they're all as bad as this because they all have the same problem: people don't want more complex answers. At least not from their news sources. Plus who wants to poo poo talk the work your company paid to do.
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Aug 21, 2016 01:12
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Well I'm no statistician but when 19/20 polls say one thing and 1 says another well...
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Aug 21, 2016 01:18
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Fox Ironic posted:Not that it matters but; Oddly enough, by this definition both myself and my parents are generation x....
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Aug 21, 2016 01:23
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Fox Ironic posted:Generation X 1964 - 1984 excuse me the gen x/millennial border is 1980
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Aug 21, 2016 01:28
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Freakazoid_ posted:excuse me the gen x/millennial border is 1980 There's a weird overlap twilight range around 77-82 that people haven't quite decided on.
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Aug 21, 2016 01:32
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Freakazoid_ posted:excuse me the gen x/millennial border is 1980
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Aug 21, 2016 01:33
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FetusSlapper posted:The piece I read said she has to respond, in writing if she wishes, to their questions that they have yet to submit and she has like a month to respond once they submit. Or what? (I may have missed the news but is this a real lawsuit or just them trying her further in the court of public opinion? )
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Aug 21, 2016 01:33
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Well I'm no statistician but when 19/20 polls say one thing and 1 says another well... Dewey defeats Truman!
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Aug 21, 2016 01:34
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Trabisnikof posted:Yeah they all post their margin of errors. But do you have any examples of say ABC or MSNBC conducted polling that sets the standard for honestly reporting results in your eyes? I can believe smaller/ngo organizations do, but I doubt there are many big media companies that start the reporting on their own polling with big caveats. I remember that when I see these representative polls on TV or in the NYTimes, they generally say something similar to "800 people were polled over August 3 and 4th and the margin of error is 2%". That's pretty clear to me, and I don't know where there would be any flaw or dishonestly in that. The only nit-picky thing I could think of is that margin of error as an unspoken probability, so it's only a margin of error with, typically, 95% certainty, but that's not disingenuous. The poll that you hold just as good has a huge and obvious flaw that should be clearly mentioned, but isn't. The fact that people treat it the same as a representative poll emphasizes this. Complexity of answers is an irrelevant issue to this and applies to both equally. Everything in the world has flaws, it doesn't make things or people equal. Case in point: Two major presidential candidates.
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Aug 21, 2016 01:39
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flavor posted:I remember that when I see these representative polls on TV or in the NYTimes, they generally say something similar to "800 people were polled over August 3 and 4th and the margin of error is 2%". That's pretty clear to me, and I don't know where there would be any flaw or dishonestly in that. The only nit-picky thing I could think of is that margin of error as an unspoken probability, so it's only a margin of error with, typically, 95% certainty, but that's not disingenuous. Like in every single chart they show the margin of error. I don't understand how you can have actually looked at the reporting and claim they hid the margin of error.
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Aug 21, 2016 01:40
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iospace posted:
 I'm sure the 200th time will be different. I do like that the same people who blamed the DNC for getting hacked because of their LAX SECURITY are insisting that Hilary's actually secure server was an evil plot full of terrorism and definitely not 90% drunken Bill Clinton texts.
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Aug 21, 2016 01:41
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Lotka Volterra posted:Black Voters aren't going 14% for Trump, it's a bad poll. Sorry. That's not what bad poll means, friend.
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Aug 21, 2016 01:42
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Yinlock posted:
The GOP's insistence on harping on Clinton scandals to the point it damages their own reputation like this makes me wonder if the GOP hasn't been completely taken over my radical true believers
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Aug 21, 2016 01:43
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Castomira posted:People born between 1980 and 1984 are sometimes regarded as a "freak" generation, because Millennials just aren't really supposed to have any memories of the Cold War. I like calling it the "Oregon Trail" generation. We had computers but much of that was pre-internet or at least the internet was more novelty than anything else.
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Aug 21, 2016 01:44
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Univision saying trump will announce a legalization process for some undocumented immigrants in the US http://www.univision.com/univision-news/politics/trump-to-introduce-reforms-to-legalize-some-undocumented-immigrants
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Aug 21, 2016 01:45
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emdash posted:Univision saying trump will announce a legalization process for some undocumented immigrants in the US I have to imagine this will alienate his base far more than it might attract Latino voters
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Aug 21, 2016 01:46
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Ice Phisherman posted:I think it's that he hasn't had some sort of gaffe in the last week or so. Not a bad one at any rate. Sure people under him are rolling in their own poo poo but he's been conspicuously quiet on the national stage and has instead been doing rallies.
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Aug 21, 2016 01:46
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Trabisnikof posted:Dewey defeats Truman! Pollings changed a bit since 1948.
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Aug 21, 2016 01:47
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Well I'm no statistician but when 19/20 polls say one thing and 1 says another well... That's just what the liberal media wants you to think!
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Aug 21, 2016 01:48
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Ice Phisherman posted:I like calling it the "Oregon Trail" generation. We had computers but much of that was pre-internet or at least the internet was more novelty than anything else. Oregon Trail came out on the Apple II in 1985, so I'd say the range for that would go quite a bit before 1980. (It was originally for large computers you connected to with terminals in 1971, but that was like all text based and really only the same game in the broadest strokes).
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Aug 21, 2016 01:48
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Ice Phisherman posted:I like calling it the "Oregon Trail" generation. We had computers but much of that was pre-internet or at least the internet was more novelty than anything else. I'm more proud of my old PII with 32mb of RAM and 10gb HDD and Rio Karma than any tech I've owned since emdash posted:Univision saying trump will announce a legalization process for some undocumented immigrants in the US Gonna be really funny when he, you know, doesn't.
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Aug 21, 2016 01:48
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Kilroy posted:It's incredible to me that the Manafort thing is just totally blowing over. The guy in charge of his campaign is working for Putin and the official GOP platform itself reflects that - directly. No one gives a gently caress. Also he broke the law by facilitating bringing in foreign money to influence American politics under the guise of domestic lobbying - ah but the Clinton Foundation, a charity, accepted money from some Saudi Arabian plutocrats a decade ago (and made this fact public a decade ago) so apparently that's a wash. gently caress this electorate. I don't think the Manafort thing is blowing over as much as Trump is already so deep its a statistical impossibility for anything to hurt him
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Aug 21, 2016 01:49
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