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Putin may be less interested in a ratchety old garbage client state like Syria if he can have Turkey.
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Aug 23, 2016 02:16
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TildeATH posted:Putin may be less interested in a ratchety old garbage client state like Syria if he can have Turkey. Turkey really isn't the kind of state that's going to mindlessly put up with Putin's bullshit, though. They're more like a (non-nuclear armed) peer than any kind of client state. Russia and Turkey also have very few interests that align in the region so I don't know if Russia can really guarantee a lasting relationship there.
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Aug 23, 2016 02:40
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OAquinas posted:I'm sure she sees the progress on the ground made with the Kurds, though if(?)/when she comes into office in 5 months the situation on the ground is going to be a LOT different. We may be nearing a point of no return wrt Turkey vs Rojava, which could force her hand. While they've been our most reliable allies in both Iraq and Syria, I don't think the Kurds really have anything to offer the US in the long run. Even if they become free, and even if they manage to sort out their inevitable infighting, they'll be a landlocked nation regarded with hostility by their neighbors. Turkey's been a pretty terrible ally in recent years, but if they force the issue, are they really bad enough to throw away for that? Even as someone with tremendous sympathy for the Kurds, it's hard for me to say that. I have no idea where I'd draw the line, but I do hope it would be somewhere short of allowing Turkey to outright invade. TildeATH posted:Putin may be less interested in a ratchety old garbage client state like Syria if he can have Turkey. Turkey's a far bigger prize, but Syria's far more reliable since they have nowhere else to go and need support. Putin could decide Syria's not worth the effort anymore, but anything Turkey has to offer can't be seen as permanent, especially when they'd be backstabbing their current patron to do it. Even the US has repeatedly faced complicated negotiations just to maintain shared air basing rights, which wouldn't remotely approach what Russia desires on the Mediterranean even if it were reliable, and it's hard to see Turkish national pride allowing for more extensive basing at this point. Especially given what Russia did to Ukraine. Warbadger posted:Turkey really isn't the kind of state that's going to mindlessly put up with Putin's bullshit, though. They're more like a (non-nuclear armed) peer than any kind of client state. Russia and Turkey also have very few interests that align in the region so I don't know if Russia can really guarantee a lasting relationship there. I wouldn't think of them as a peer really, but they're at the very least in the same category as Iran, where it would be far more trouble than it's worth to fight them, granting them an ability to tell everyone to gently caress themselves if they're willing to accept the isolation that might cause. Basically they're a legitimate regional power, and in an increasingly multi-polar world, that's enough to matter. Even the US has had to accept that it has limits when it comes to countering the influence of regional powers.
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Aug 23, 2016 02:45
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SAA getting pretty squished in Al-Hasakah.  'There also seems to be reports of Israel airstriking some Assad positions in golan heights after receiving mortar fire. Is this common?
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Aug 23, 2016 03:02
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Sinteres posted:While they've been our most reliable allies in both Iraq and Syria, I don't think the Kurds really have anything to offer the US in the long run. Even if they become free, and even if they manage to sort out their inevitable infighting, they'll be a landlocked nation regarded with hostility by their neighbors. Turkey's been a pretty terrible ally in recent years, but if they force the issue, are they really bad enough to throw away for that? Even as someone with tremendous sympathy for the Kurds, it's hard for me to say that. I have no idea where I'd draw the line, but I do hope it would be somewhere short of allowing Turkey to outright invade. ...and that's the rub. Rojava offers little for us, and a slew of negatives. Hopefully they have better relations with the Iraqi government, but yeah, I don't see much happening beyond "Stay on your side of the room." I don't have too many illusions of this having a happy ending for them, but you never know.
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Aug 23, 2016 03:11
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Imapanda posted:There also seems to be reports of Israel airstriking some Assad positions in golan heights after receiving mortar fire. Is this common? The Israeli's are known to respond with artillery fire if a munition comes over a border at them. The go-to response for rocket attacks from Gaza/the West Bank has been to respond with 155mm or helicopter gunships, so it wouldn't surprise me if the Israelis are shooting back over the border.
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Aug 23, 2016 03:48
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Why aren't the Israelis supporting the rebels? I mean a lot of them are Islamists but surely they don't want Assad in charge either.
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Aug 23, 2016 03:50
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Apparently, the Southern Front, the more unified of the two rebel-areas, is re-unifying itself under a consolidated command room https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/767797866274455552 NDF are surrendering at the Kawqab artillery base, the base outside of Hasakah. Dunno if this has been confirmed, but it doesn't seem completely beyond the realm of possibility. In Aleppo, SAA troops managed to recapture Syriatel hill today.
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Aug 23, 2016 03:55
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OAquinas posted:...and that's the rub. Rojava offers little for us, and a slew of negatives. Hopefully they have better relations with the Iraqi government, but yeah, I don't see much happening beyond "Stay on your side of the room." I think the best thing the Kurds offer to us is potentially a leadership that will govern an area without provoking sectarian violence... as much as just about anybody else in the region.
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Aug 23, 2016 03:57
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Nitrousoxide posted:Why aren't the Israelis supporting the rebels? I mean a lot of them are Islamists but surely they don't want Assad in charge either. Because they don't give a gently caress and they got their own genocide to busy themselves with? Assad signed a peace treaty with Israel, which is a lot more than can be said for most of Israel's neighbours. Then again, he is allied with Iran so who knows. Maybe they just don't want none of that mess on their hands.
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Aug 23, 2016 03:58
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Nitrousoxide posted:Why aren't the Israelis supporting the rebels? I mean a lot of them are Islamists but surely they don't want Assad in charge either. Aren't most of the rebels just franchised spinoffs of Al Qaeda, or little better than? Israel's in the same boat as we are with regard to who to support, only they have a slightly more immediate issue of being next door. They're probably just keeping an eye on things to make sure spillover is minimized. I'm sure BiBi would prefer a nuanced and precisely targeted conventional bombing campaign, though.
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Aug 23, 2016 04:02
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OAquinas posted:Aren't most of the rebels just franchised spinoffs of Al Qaeda, or little better than? "Precisely targeted" At civilian centers.
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Aug 23, 2016 04:13
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Nitrousoxide posted:Why aren't the Israelis supporting the rebels? I mean a lot of them are Islamists but surely they don't want Assad in charge either. Despite the rhetoric from Assad. The Israel-Syrian border has been quiet for a long time. Assad falling risks Islamist groups turning their weapons on Israel and firing rockets over the border. I think the Israelis prefer the conflict to drag on as long as possible and leave everyone in a weak state. Friendly Humour posted:Because they don't give a gently caress and they got their own genocide to busy themselves with? Assad signed a peace treaty with Israel, which is a lot more than can be said for most of Israel's neighbours. Then again, he is allied with Iran so who knows. Maybe they just don't want none of that mess on their hands. The Assad's rhetoric has always been anti-Israel since Israel occupies the Golan Heights.
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Aug 23, 2016 04:28
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OhFunny posted:I think you're confusing Syria with Egypt here. There is no peace treaty between Israel and Syria. The countries have existed in a Korea style armistice stand off since 1974. Syria also does not officially recognize the State of Israel. Some past Israeli governments have offered to return the Golan Heights to exchange for a peace treaty, but those offers were rebuffed or fell through. I'm not, I'm just wrong. They did have negotiations though. Ah well, my point was that Bibi probably wants nothing to do with the mess. And they would also much prefer Assad to any of the contenders since he's a known quality.
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Aug 23, 2016 04:51
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As long as the Syrian civil war keeps Iran and Hezbollah occupied and the conflict doesn't spill their way, Israel is a happy camper. Israel interferes with its neighbours from time to time, but they realize that they have a Midas touch that turns everything into poop and the more they touch around the worse the smell gets.
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Aug 23, 2016 05:25
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Iraq has hanged 36 people connected to the 2014 mass killing of army recruits by ISIS. http://www.reuters.com/video/2016/08/22/iraq-hangs-36-people-in-mass-execution?videoId=369631889
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Aug 23, 2016 05:48
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Guess who's back https://steemit.com/syria/@kpatrickdawes/glasshouse-a-true-story-of-the-arab-spring-part-1 https://steemit.com/syria/@kpatrickdawes/glasshouse-a-true-story-of-the-arab-spring-part-2-jabberwocky
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Aug 23, 2016 06:59
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CommieGIR posted:"Precisely targeted" They've actually got a much better track record in Syria than they do in Gaza. Pretty much every strike they've done has hit Hezbollah right in the mouth with limited collateral damage. As far as Israeli support for the rebels, it's pretty limited, but it exists. I'm not sure if rebels still control part of the border with Israel but they did for a long time, and Israel allowed them to cross the border and get medical treatment. Of course, whatever the relationship between the rebels and Israel, it's highly overstated by the regime just for propaganda value, in the way that everyone in the middle east who has enemies tries to link them to Israel. They don't talk about it as much now, but back when the revolution kicked off, the regime was referring to the opposition as Israeli operatives just as much as they were calling them jihadists. That still lingers a bit with claims that Israel is backing al Qaeda linked militias, and let to a sort of grassroots massacre a year or so ago when some unarmed people were heading to Israel for medical treatment and were murdered by some Druze loyalists. The biggest issue with Israeli support is that in a place like Syria, it can be more trouble than it's worth, and Israel is aware of that. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 07:10 on Aug 23, 2016 |
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Aug 23, 2016 07:08
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Brown Moses posted:Guess who's back 
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Aug 23, 2016 07:14
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Brown Moses posted:Guess who's back How's that crazy bastard recovering (relatively speaking for an insane guy)?
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Aug 23, 2016 07:25
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Brown Moses posted:Guess who's back 2016 continues to deliver
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Aug 23, 2016 07:28
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Brown Moses posted:Guess who's back no loving way
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Aug 23, 2016 07:32
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has anyone ever seen caro and gulen in the same room together? i think not
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Aug 23, 2016 07:48
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His writing seems less salady, but with all the spy stuff I don't know if he's on his meds.
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Aug 23, 2016 07:53
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It's nuts how he saw so many people he recognized from Libya, and how they all had the same  reaction to seeing him.
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Aug 23, 2016 07:56
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He wrote all the way up to his capture at one time two weeks ago and nothing since. I'm guessing the next episode isn't an easy one to write.
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Aug 23, 2016 08:04
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Volkerball posted:It's nuts how he saw so many people he recognized from Libya, and how they all had the same I wonder if he was wearing the helmet.
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Aug 23, 2016 08:12
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Volkerball posted:He wrote all the way up to his capture at one time two weeks ago and nothing since. I'm guessing the next episode isn't an easy one to write. I'm guessing from the long digression on the best boots to wear, even the capture is something he desperately wants to avoid thinking about. But if his descriptions of inside the beast are as filled with consumer reports then sign me up.
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Aug 23, 2016 08:43
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I tried, i cant read that, knowing that he was totally off his meds during all this and that hes totally ignoring that side of the story to portray himself as some brave adventurer is totally frustrating. I could handle the purple prose and self aggrandising if he was honest and talked about flushing his meds and how his mind started to unravel. The worst thing is, theres an awesome story in there somewhere, this guys mental illness led him into the worst place on earth currently, and he just about made it out alive, not through his extreme tenaciousness but seemingly sheer luck. I would like to read a more self aware version of this story that details why he did what he did but i think hes too far gone for that, he still seems to be in the mindset that he knew what he was doing when in reality im confident in presuming he was pretty deluded throughout the entire experience.
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Aug 23, 2016 11:12
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Nitrousoxide posted:He realized he done hosed up and tried to back down but the other side has already taken off their shirts. Why the gently caress do you have to take your shirt off when you fight, Randü? drat slavatuvs posted:His writing seems less salady, but with all the spy stuff I don't know if he's on his meds. No matter how cracked he is, he is clearly either medicated or at least recovered somewhat from his psychoses. It used to be "human clones are sending evil beams into my radio, I can smell them from here" this and "the new age of enlightenment will be here, if I can escape the CIA robots" that. Tias fucked around with this message at 12:12 on Aug 23, 2016 |
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Aug 23, 2016 12:03
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Tias posted:Why the gently caress do you have to take your shirt off when you fight, Randü? drat In a fistfight it's so your opponent can't easily grab you Looks like Hasakah cease fire between Kurdish and regime forces after ISIS launched their own assault. https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/768040369862930433
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Aug 23, 2016 12:14
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it was a trailer park boys joke don't hit me
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Aug 23, 2016 12:46
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Hasakah cease fire terms. https://twitter.com/Rodi_Khalil/status/768056877766828032 The main terms of agreement of ceasefire in Hasakah 1- All clashes to stop inside the city of Hasakah from 02:00pm 23 Aug 2016 2- All recent liberated areas by YPG will be guarded and remain under control of the Kurdish Asayish security forces. 3- All Syrian regime troops, including all of its affiliated militias (except for the civil police), to withdraw from the city of Hasaka. 4- Syrian army/troops are not allowed to enter Hasakah anymore. The "security square" in the center of the city will remain under the control of Syria regime, but to be guarded only by civil police (no Syria regime troops allowed inside the city). All in all a total capitulation and demilitarization in exchange for not technically losing complete control of another provincial capital.
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Aug 23, 2016 13:49
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Really seems the SAA troops cannot find the will the fight the YPG like they do the rebels, and it seems the YPG are more than happy to end conflicts with them with as little blood shed as possible. Am I correct in this observation or am i missing something here?
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Aug 23, 2016 14:03
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WoodrowSkillson posted:Really seems the SAA troops cannot find the will the fight the YPG like they do the rebels, and it seems the YPG are more than happy to end conflicts with them with as little blood shed as possible. The US stepped in and put some unclear limits on Assad's ability to bomb the Kurds in Hasakah, plus the city's been isolated and surrounded by Kurds pretty much forever. Between that and Russia not really caring much what happens in the northeast, it was about as unfavorable a battleground as Assad could have. If the Kurds do continue to poke the regime around Aleppo though, I imagine we'll see some more ferocity on the part of the regime.
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Aug 23, 2016 14:06
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Maybe Assad is hoping that by rolling over on a few isolated pockets with no strategic value he can get his general ceasefire back with the Kurds.
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Aug 23, 2016 14:19
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https://twitter.com/leloveluck/status/768070632122834944 Looking forward to the White House statement on this one.
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Aug 23, 2016 14:23
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Volkerball posted:https://twitter.com/leloveluck/status/768070632122834944 Idiotic claim for anyone who actually remembers the course of events after ghouta.
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Aug 23, 2016 14:36
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farraday posted:Idiotic claim for anyone who actually remembers the course of events after ghouta. As far as I can tell, it's in a gray area where facts are unlikely to emerge. Negotiations were going on, and Iran certainly would not have been pleased about the US targeting Assad. I'd say it's more likely than not that it would've been a dealbreaker if the US had gone forward with strikes. That certainly could've played into Obama's decision making. If you're referring to the Kerry/Russia thing as though it undermined a US attempt to go to war, that was not the case. quote:Many of his advisers did not grasp the depth of the president’s misgivings; his Cabinet and his allies were certainly unaware of them. But his doubts were growing. Late on Friday afternoon, Obama determined that he was simply not prepared to authorize a strike. He asked McDonough, his chief of staff, to take a walk with him on the South Lawn of the White House. Obama did not choose McDonough randomly: He is the Obama aide most averse to U.S. military intervention, and someone who, in the words of one of his colleagues, “thinks in terms of traps.” Obama, ordinarily a preternaturally confident man, was looking for validation, and trying to devise ways to explain his change of heart, both to his own aides and to the public. He and McDonough stayed outside for an hour. Obama told him he was worried that Assad would place civilians as “human shields” around obvious targets. He also pointed out an underlying flaw in the proposed strike: U.S. missiles would not be fired at chemical-weapons depots, for fear of sending plumes of poison into the air. A strike would target military units that had delivered these weapons, but not the weapons themselves. http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/ He was very clearly looking for a way out all along. If, and how much, the Iran deal played into that decision, is up for debate. I'd lean towards it not playing much of a role, but I do want to hear how they explain that it wasn't.
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Aug 23, 2016 14:50
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Volkerball posted:As far as I can tell, it's in a gray area where facts are unlikely to emerge. Negotiations were going on, and Iran certainly would not have been pleased about the US targeting Assad. I'd say it's more likely than not that it would've been a dealbreaker if the US had gone forward with strikes. That certainly could've played into Obama's decision making. If you're referring to the Kerry/Russia thing as though it undermined a US attempt to go to war, that was not the case. Moronic. Obama was unwilling to move alone and major allies had made it clear they would not take part. Then the US moved it to Congress where it was facing resistance. Pretending this was a unilateral Obama decision to save the Iran deal, which itself then was only the glimmer of a hope, is absolutely stupid.
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Aug 23, 2016 14:55
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