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Sinteres posted:Holy poo poo, Biden just said the Kurds will lose US support if they don't return east of the Euphrates. Why the gently caress did we send them to die for Manbij if we were going to let Turkey steal it from them? It sounds like you're assuming that the Obama administration has a cohesive foreign policy as opposed to a constant desperate scramble of responses designed to "not do stupid poo poo" and avoid any serious criticism.
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Aug 24, 2016 15:28
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I mean I can easily see us throwing the Kurds under the bus to give some concessions to Turkey to keep them in NATO.
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Aug 24, 2016 15:36
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It loving sucks, but at least the people of Manbij are free of ISIS. Also what was the Kurds supposed to have done in the mean time? Attack is the best form of defense as this war has been showing. Though I do wonder who these guys Turkey are backing are. It'll be some seriously  poo poo if all those women burning thier buqas get a new issue of them from the new guys.Also, I wonder if that people's council they set up would be able to keep going.
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Aug 24, 2016 15:43
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I'm curious, what sort of political leverage does Turkey even have over the United States? Do X or else...? It's not like they'd actually be able to successfully realign with Putin.
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Aug 24, 2016 15:45
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TheFallenEvincar posted:It's not like they'd actually be able to successfully realign with Putin. Why not? The US is supporting communists in the Kurds. That would have been unimaginable 30 years ago.
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Aug 24, 2016 15:46
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TheFallenEvincar posted:I'm curious, what sort of political leverage does Turkey even have over the United States? Do X or else...? It's not like they'd actually be able to successfully realign with Putin. Geopolitics. The Dardanelles, and Turkey is a big Airbase for the USAF into the Middle East.
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Aug 24, 2016 15:47
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Xerxes17 posted:The Dardanelles Why do we care about this? What is the Black Sea Fleet going to do, precisely, that we are so worried about?
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Aug 24, 2016 15:49
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Dardanelles Joe
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Aug 24, 2016 15:50
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professor_curly posted:Why do we care about this? What is the Black Sea Fleet going to do, precisely, that we are so worried about? Hedging bets. Just because Russia is in the shitter now, doesn't mean it will be twenty years from now. And as to what it would do, loving with Oil tankers going through the suez canal would be a big deal in WW3.
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Aug 24, 2016 15:54
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Xerxes17 posted:Geopolitics. The Dardanelles, and Turkey is a big Airbase for the USAF into the Middle East. It also holds more Syrian refugees than any other country. Piss Turkey off enough, they'll 'encourage' many of them to travel to Europe.
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Aug 24, 2016 16:00
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Wasn't the US providing air support to the SDF while they were getting Manbij?
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Aug 24, 2016 16:01
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Arab Units can stay though, right? Wasn't it the idea from the beginning?
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Aug 24, 2016 16:03
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Count Roland posted:Wasn't the US providing air support to the SDF while they were getting Manbij? Yep, except in the immediate aftermath of the coup attempt in Turkey.
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Aug 24, 2016 16:09
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https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/768459546129858560 I assume they'll be wanting Manbij too, it would basically mean a 20km buffer zone inside Syria.
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Aug 24, 2016 16:10
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Turkey explains itself. Note how this graphic only talks about ISIS and "terrorists", without mentioned Kurds or Kurdish groups. https://twitter.com/TRDiplomacy/status/768446631779926017 https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/768466007904120832 Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 16:16 on Aug 24, 2016 |
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Aug 24, 2016 16:14
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Manbij was always going to be an Arab administered city, the Turks and Americans are only asking the PYD to leave.
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Aug 24, 2016 16:15
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Brown Moses posted:https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/768459546129858560 Was Jarablus a village? How did it fall so fast?
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Aug 24, 2016 16:16
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Sinteres posted:Yep, except in the immediate aftermath of the coup attempt in Turkey. Biden is talking like there was "always" a requirement that the SDF would not cross the Euphrates. How does Assad, and Russia feel about this? A few months ago they would have been apoplectic, but since the coup and Turkey's apparent reconciliation with Russia and even softening towards Assad, things are a bit different now.
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Aug 24, 2016 16:18
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Brown Moses posted:Turkey explains itself. Note how this graphic only talks about ISIS and "terrorists", without mentioned Kurds or Kurdish groups. Reason #1 is disgusting. So where were you years ago when ISIS first showed up, hey Turkey? 
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Aug 24, 2016 16:19
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Sinteres posted:Holy poo poo, Biden just said the Kurds will lose US support if they don't return east of the Euphrates. Why the gently caress did we send them to die for Manbij if we were going to let Turkey steal it from them? slavatuvs posted:Manbij was always going to be an Arab administered city, the Turks and Americans are only asking the PYD to leave. https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/768451832368754688 quote:#BREAKING PYD's armed wing YPG says it is pulling its forces from the west bank of Euphrates, but leaving other factions of SDF behind
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Aug 24, 2016 16:20
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Kurtofan posted:Was Jarablus a village? How did it fall so fast? It was apparently pretty empty. https://twitter.com/BosnjoBoy/status/768457310939279360
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Aug 24, 2016 16:21
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Sinteres posted:Holy poo poo, Biden just said the Kurds will lose US support if they don't return east of the Euphrates. Why the gently caress did we send them to die for Manbij if we were going to let Turkey steal it from them? Because realpolitik. It takes less effort to work with a piece of poo poo like Erdogan than it does to build up the Kurds, who are ultimately still reliant on US air support. Even if they probably would bring more long-term stability than Turkey ever could. But I do wonder what Assad/Russia's response to this will be. This is Turkey straight up walking right over the border, not giving a poo poo much like they did in Iraq. I do wonder, though, if Assad might not start feeling moreso threatened by it rather than by YPG, given that they're now being told to give it all up too.
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Aug 24, 2016 16:21
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Kurtofan posted:Was Jarablus a village? How did it fall so fast? From google earth it looks like several thousand residences. https://goo.gl/maps/A2A2hsZXrF52 The Turkish army and their rebel allies had been openly massing on the other side of the border for some time, maybe IS withdrew in anticipation? Question: Who exactly are these rebels that Turkey was hosting on their side of the border? What group(s), and how many?
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Aug 24, 2016 16:34
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professor_curly posted:Why do we care about this? What is the Black Sea Fleet going to do, precisely, that we are so worried about? Nothing. Never. It's just idiots who grew up with the Bosporus and Fulda Gap have no capability to recognize new geopolitical realities.
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Aug 24, 2016 16:42
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Kurtofan posted:Was Jarablus a village? How did it fall so fast? Jarablus is less than a mile from the Turkish border and the remaining defenders were facing an all-out invasion from a NATO military power. The fighters who lived probably dropped their weapons and fled.
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Aug 24, 2016 16:43
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Volkerball posted:Did you read anything more than the headline on this? This is from weeks later, and half the arguments are that Obama should've acted immediately. 1) Yes. McCain doesn't have any other principle other than his own own political career, and he would have turned easily on a dime, probably by stating Obama was JUST DOING IT WRONG 2) The one number principle of the Republican party, as iterated by McConnell, was to oppose Obama. You're just showing your ignorance of American politics here. 3) The Freedom Caucus doesn't have any power? They are the Republican party, jesus christ. 4) Stick to Mid-east politics, you seem knowledgeable there. Republican obstruction is partly the reason why there was no money for diplomatic outreach after the US pullout from Iraq, combined counter terror units (from 100s to 3) with both American and Iraqi personnel was curtailed, and why the US ran away from Libya. Just to re-iterate, there was a shimmering sheen of Republican support for attacking Assad in 2012, which would have immediately evaporated once Obama attacked. Schrodinger's United Front if you will.
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Aug 24, 2016 16:54
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Seriously, take a second to think about this. We just directly supported the Kurds in helping them take over basically all of Hasakah. If we were planning to drop support for them, there's no way we would have stuck our necks out like that. Especially not when ISIL still controls Raqqa, and the SDF is the only viable force that can take Raqqa. That said, I'm astounded that Turkey actually sent troops into Syria. Just goes to show that the Syrian Civil War always has a new curveball around the corner.
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Aug 24, 2016 16:55
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Xerxes17 posted:Hedging bets. Just because Russia is in the shitter now, doesn't mean it will be twenty years from now. Ya ww3 is really going to hinge on oil tankers in the suez fuckin'  TildeATH posted:Nothing. Never. It's just idiots who grew up with the Bosporus and Fulda Gap have no capability to recognize new geopolitical realities. This guy knows what's up. Xerxes17 posted:Geopolitics. The Dardanelles, and Turkey is a big Airbase for the USAF into the Middle East. This is about so much more than silly bases, it's not the 20th century anymore dude. It's about keeping turkey closer to the west than the east, it's about refugees and it's a bit of: J33uk posted:It sounds like you're assuming that the Obama administration has a cohesive foreign policy as opposed to a constant desperate scramble of responses designed to "not do stupid poo poo" and avoid any serious criticism. At least Obama is aware at how clueless he is about foreign policy, though. Much better than bush which is about the only praise you can give him on the subject.
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Aug 24, 2016 16:55
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According to Google Maps, it looks like Jarabulus is around 1km is diameter, so it's pretty tiny.
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Aug 24, 2016 16:57
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What does this mean? https://twitter.com/globeandmail/status/768456798181421059 https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/768393459589910528
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Aug 24, 2016 16:58
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tsa posted:Ya ww3 is really going to hinge on oil tankers in the suez fuckin' Why can't it be all three mixed together? There is no reason to think that it's just one big particular reason instead of a composite of many concerns/interests.
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Aug 24, 2016 16:59
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Apparently Biden said that the PKK and YPG are one and the same, and that the U.S. will help with the extradition process, so, they really want Turkey's involvement here.
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Aug 24, 2016 17:03
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Kurtofan posted:What does this mean? It means the USA is listening to Turkey's request and considering it, but that it's likely not enough to extradite him which makes our relationship with Turkey pretty dicey.
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Aug 24, 2016 17:03
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Goddammit Biden
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Aug 24, 2016 17:05
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Emanuel Collective posted:Jarablus is less than a mile from the Turkish border and the remaining defenders were facing an all-out invasion from a NATO military power. The fighters who lived probably dropped their weapons and fled. Yeah, this https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/768450825089933312
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Aug 24, 2016 17:07
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Nitrousoxide posted:It means the USA is listening to Turkey's request and considering it, but that it's likely not enough to extradite him which makes our relationship with Turkey pretty dicey. Biden can talk all he wants but Gulen is an US immigrant (he might be a citizen by now, but the protections still remain). Hail our frozen and inept legal and immigration system! Nothing's going to happen there for a loving while.
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Aug 24, 2016 17:10
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Kurtofan posted:What does this mean? Gulen masterminded it all after all
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Aug 24, 2016 17:12
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Torpor posted:Goddammit Biden Gotta hand it to him, tho. He knows diplomacy. If you want to appease a dictatorial egomaniac like Erdogan, and keep Turkey moreso leaning west towards NATO, making statements like this that back his play and appease his ego would definitely be the way to do it. Thus far he's not yet committed anything too specific with his words either (though  @ that Gulen insinuation)...let's just hope he keeps up the foreplay with Turkey and doesn't completely bend the gently caress over.
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Aug 24, 2016 17:12
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I hope Biden was being Biden and isn't actually on the same page as Obama and Hillary on some of this. I love the guy, but he goes off reservation all the time.
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Aug 24, 2016 17:13
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I'm almost tempted to believe Obama wants a full blown clusterfuck to highlight how unprepared Trump is. I cant quite map outin my head what anyone expects to happen when the Turkish exclusion zone runs into Syrian govt controlled territory.
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Aug 24, 2016 17:14
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