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Cat Mattress
Jul 14, 2012

by Cyrano4747

Friendly Humour posted:

Which TV? Weren't you Croat?

It was Arte in this case. Fuckhead in question is apparently a journalist at Paris Match.

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Kurtofan
Feb 16, 2011

hon hon hon

Who said that poo poo

Friendly Humour posted:

Which TV? Weren't you Croat?

Cat Mattress is a filthy Frenchman

A Festivus Miracle
Dec 19, 2012

I have come to discourse on the profound inequities of the American political system.

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/771602845774688256

The possibility the Rebels may link up with forces stuck north of Homs has inspired the government to open a dam on the Orontes river.

Fighting around Ibtta today. The truce between the Southern Front and the government is now at an end.

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

If Turkey say the Bob Crow brigade is advancing on them the British government will ask where to send the drones.

Forums Terrorist
Dec 8, 2011


media getting to work on the narrative i see

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos

A White Guy posted:

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/771602845774688256

The possibility the Rebels may link up with forces stuck north of Homs has inspired the government to open a dam on the Orontes river.

Fighting around Ibtta today. The truce between the Southern Front and the government is now at an end.

I doubt opening a dam would have much effect in a 100 degree desert. Might take out some farms, but besides that I don't see it significantly slowing advances.


In comedy news:

https://twitter.com/AsadSouria/status/771758706992091136?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

"An engine malfunction caused the helicopter crash in Hama."

Private Speech
Mar 30, 2011

I HAVE EVEN MORE WORTHLESS BEANIE BABIES IN MY COLLECTION THAN I HAVE WORTHLESS POSTS IN THE BEANIE BABY THREAD YET I STILL HAVE THE TEMERITY TO CRITICIZE OTHERS' COLLECTIONS

IF YOU SEE ME TALKING ABOUT BEANIE BABIES, PLEASE TELL ME TO

EAT. SHIT.



Well, engines do in fact malfunction when they hit the ground at 200 MPH.

Ghost of Babyhead
Jun 28, 2008
Grimey Drawer

rear end struggle posted:

I doubt opening a dam would have much effect in a 100 degree desert. Might take out some farms, but besides that I don't see it significantly slowing advances.


In comedy news:

https://twitter.com/AsadSouria/status/771758706992091136?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

"An engine malfunction caused the helicopter crash in Hama."

Wonder how much of a bollocking that TOW team's cameraman is getting right now (especially if there did turn out to be someone important in there*).

*Is that likely? Presumably you wouldn't risk a scarce helicopter to chauffeur someone expendable.

Ikasuhito
Sep 29, 2013

Haram as Fuck.

Some more comedy. The opposition has weaponized their drones.

https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/771821189450784768

Cat Mattress
Jul 14, 2012

by Cyrano4747

Kurtofan posted:

Who said that poo poo

The guy in the gray suit. Apparently his name is Gilles Martin-Chauffier.



He also said that the refugee camps in Italy were much better than the Calais jungle, despite having much more people in them, because they were managed by the mafia instead of the police.

Kurtofan
Feb 16, 2011

hon hon hon
refugee camps administered by the mafia doesn't seem like a good thing for oh so many reasons

Radio Prune
Feb 19, 2010

Ghost of Babyhead posted:

*Is that likely? Presumably you wouldn't risk a scarce helicopter to chauffeur someone expendable.

Pretty common for field commanders. Especially once they started using Gazelles again - small, quick, and nimble makes them perfect for moving between positions on a given front. Suheil Hassan is fond of this method (although it's unlikely he was on this particular one).

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Count Roland posted:

Turkey has announced that Karimov, the long-time ruler of Uzbekistan, is in fact dead.

Its a big deal for Central Asia (which I know isn't the ME), but some stretchy definitions include it.

I mention it because Central Asia is in a lot of the same positions as the ME before the Arab Spring. Long time dictators, youth unemployment, lack of real prospects, retarded colonial era borders, limited national unity, a gently caress ton of natural gas, wacky or just nonfunctional economies, and a bunch of Great Powers that work hard to influence the region.

(one big difference is that unlike in the ME, there is no unifying language or ethnicity, no equivalent to a generic Arab across the whole region)

Karimov for example was a real rear end in a top hat, that clamped down really hard on any dissent. His is the biggest by far of the 'stans and probably the most functional. Without any clear successor or any civil society at all, the region could be in for some rough times.

so is it gonna fall apart like Yugoslavia now or just break out into various factions/ethinic groups trying to seize power.


Brother Friendship posted:

There has been an increasing number of deaths among ranking Iranians and Tiger forces in addition to the high body count of regular soldiers on both the Hama and Aleppo fronts. It seems that the regime has either run out of or cannot rely on cannon fodder and has been forced to expose it's elite units to the front line with obvious consequences. The regime only uses Hezbollah, Tiger, Republican Guard ect in a controlled manner (such as the Palmyra offensive, closing the encirclement around Aleppo or using sieges to crush rebels) but both Aleppo and Hama have thrown this method out the window. Once the elite forces start being drained it's basically a countdown until catastrophe for the regime because they're depleting their only mobile and professional force.

The rebels sacked a missile base that was apparently stocked with ATGMs and Grad rockets and at least one launcher and are apparently putting them to good use to pound regime positions with the sort of bombardment reserved for the rebels. Regime armor and gun emplacements are feeling the effects of this lethal rebel push as can be attested by the dozens of videos of the regime losing everything from machine gun mounted trucks to tanks to, apparently, a helicopter. They're currently assaulting the mountain range directly north of Aleppo with the seized Grads and from what I can tell are actually serious about fighting for the Khatab. Even if it's just a distraction while they take Maan it shows that the rebels want to take advantage of every opportunity Assad has afforded them in Hama.

Are there any estimates of casualties or overall manpower for the rebels and the regime? Both sides must be suffering thousands of casualties and with two fronts burning red hot right and eating up every bit of manpower.

so basicaly they have pissed away the lives of a ton of their men as well as the men various allied groups and now they are left with their elite groups that are pretty small?

icantfindaname
Jul 1, 2008


Ikasuhito posted:

Some more comedy. The opposition has weaponized their drones.

https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/771821189450784768

What are the blue dong looking things they're dropping? They don't explode or do anything it seems

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

icantfindaname posted:

What are the blue dong looking things they're dropping? They don't explode or do anything it seems

One of them explodes, judging from the sudden fire that breaks out in the second video. My guess is that they could be repurposed autocannon rounds or 30mm AGL grenades.

I'm trying to figure out how they're being dropped.

Freakazoid_
Jul 5, 2013


Buglord

icantfindaname posted:

What are the blue dong looking things they're dropping? They don't explode or do anything it seems

I'm guessing there's like some fireworks or something. This seems more like a prank than an actual attack.

TildeATH
Oct 21, 2010

by Lowtax

Freakazoid_ posted:

I'm guessing there's like some fireworks or something. This seems more like a prank than an actual attack.

Yeah, I can see Ashton Kutcher down there laughing. It's his new series on Netflix.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

How does one defend himself from a drone anyways?

Asimov
Feb 15, 2016

More drones?

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

Grouchio posted:

How does one defend himself from a drone anyways?

That's what I've actually been wondering about this drone footage, especially this one. Are those quadcopters that hard to see? I mean, we've had at least two cases where someone has spotted and shot down a drone, which weren't that different from the stuff being used in Syria. Why haven't we seen people shooting at drones. Of course, the obvious is that they are but this footage is from the ones that have returned. Now, the Aleppo footage could be explained in that people are too distracted to see the drone, but here, no one's looking up when there's obviously stuff starting to explode or impact around them.

TildeATH
Oct 21, 2010

by Lowtax

Young Freud posted:

That's what I've actually been wondering about this drone footage, especially this one. Are those quadcopters that hard to see? I mean, we've had at least two cases where someone has spotted and shot down a drone, which weren't that different from the stuff being used in Syria. Why haven't we seen people shooting at drones. Of course, the obvious is that they are but this footage is from the ones that have returned. Now, the Aleppo footage could be explained in that people are too distracted to see the drone, but here, no one's looking up when there's obviously stuff starting to explode or impact around them.

Do you see how high up these things are? I'd imagine they're nigh invisible and untouchable when finally spotted, though I'd love links to anything that's been done to see how hard it is to shoot down small drones.

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos
Tons have been shot down over Ukraine.
They even BUK'd one.

Torpor
Oct 20, 2008

.. and now for my next trick, I'll pretend to be a political commentator...

HONK HONK
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAFWIXRZYvo

:goonsay:

Which one of you is this?

C.M. Kruger
Oct 28, 2013

Grouchio posted:

How does one defend himself from a drone anyways?

Signal jamming. Either kill the command signal and/or jam GPS so it crashes, or jam the camera feed so it can't provide real-time information.

Brother Friendship
Jul 12, 2013

Dapper_Swindler posted:

so basicaly they have pissed away the lives of a ton of their men as well as the men various allied groups and now they are left with their elite groups that are pretty small?

The entire war is an exercise in pissing away lives. From what I understand Iran essentially reforged the SAA once the rebels started receiving foreign backing by taking the vast stockpiles of armor and weaponry the SAA had accumulated and then dispersing them to various militias (NDF as a common force focused on local defense, Tigers as an elite force focused on key offensive and defensive actions). Combined with a legal decree that allowed private businessmen to create their own militias this swelled the numbers of fighters loyal to the regime but crippled its integrity as a cohesive armed force loyal to a central government because instead of the strict hierarchy of an army Iran replaced it something more analogous to the rebel forces, where small war bands control their own little fiefdoms and answer only nominally to the greater 'cause' to which they are pledged. Essentially what happened in both South Aleppo and Hama is that the local NDF charged with garrison duty failed in their duties to either prepare their defenses or hold them, which ripped a hole in Assad's lines and allowed the rebels to pour through. The only way to plug those holes is with the elite forces but that then exposes them to the casualties associated with front line fighting in contrast to their preferred method of using the NDF to hem in rebel forces and employ the elite soldiers only when victory can be assured through sheer advantage in firepower.

It's impossible for us to determine what the actual fighting strength is of any of these factions. All we can tell is that everyone involved in this fighting is bleeding heavily and it's up in the air to determine who can afford it the least. Personally, I think the elite forces are just beefed up versions of the NDF with unknown loyalties that may crack and bend in unexpected ways when compared to a truly professional force. The elite forces (Tiger, Air force intelligence, Republican Guard, Hezbollah forces and Iranian army) losing their high ranking officers is a sign that they may be suffering losses they cannot easily replace. They could be well trained and deeply experienced professionals and products of a completely different era of Syrian history and you can't just recreate that in in a training ground. The more of these men they lose the more the elite forces become like everyone else in the war.

RZApublican posted:

I can't remember the name of the formation, but a few months ago when the regime tried to launch an offensive toward Raqqah ISIS beat them back so hard that one of the regime's special forces units completely disintegrated to the point that the government denied that it had ever existed. If Aleppo and Hama keep going the way they've been going for the regime we're probably going to be seeing a lot of division-level unpersoning in the near future.

It was Orwellion as gently caress to see the loyalist media try to sweep aside any mention of the division that got wiped out. "No, we suffered no losses in the road to Raqqa. That division never even existed." It's one thing to die fighting in a war, but it's another to have you death swept into a dustbin because someone hosed up.

You might like this:

http://spioenkop.blogspot.com/2016/06/no-end-in-sight-failed-tabqa-offensive.html

The offensive was composed of multiple, if not dozens segregated militias that lacked a cohesive command structure and I don't think the regime lost its elite fores in the Taqba offensive. Instead what I think happened was that a failure to secure their perimeter allowed ISIS's own elite fighters to bring in SBVIEDS and tanks right next to regime lines. When the elite forces realized their position they loving booked it and left the regular NDF forces to their own devices. This then caused a panic that ultimately routed the offensive forces and pushed them back all the way past their original positions.

Could you imagine the marines abandoning army divisions in the middle of hostile territory like that? This is what I meant that the elite forces are just beefed up versions of the NDF and shouldn't be considered a regular professional force even if they are some of the most effective fighters in the war (any decent faction with material advantage and air supremacy can count itself as effective). I may be mistaken, but this may also be the most severe test of these units yet. Or at the very least in the past two years or since the outbreak of the revolution. Out of all the loyalist forces I would imagine that Hezbollah forces would fight as a the most professional and, if you saw some of the reports of out Southwest Aleppo as the rebels prepared for the breaking of the siege, you'd hear similar reports from the ground. The front would come under attack and only Hezbollah would hold its position, forcing them to suffer loses and still have to retreat under adverse conditions because the other fighters weren't strong enough to stand under fire. This is the key flaw in the loyalist strategy that allowed the rebels to creep so close to Aleppo in the first place.

That Italian Guy
Jul 25, 2012

We need the equivalent of the shrimp = small pastry avatar, but for ambulances and their mysteries now.

Grouchio posted:

How does one defend himself from a drone anyways?

Non military solutions (commercially available) include lasers, signal deprivation "guns" (that render the drone unresponsive and make it crash), drones armed with barbed nets and even fuckin birds of prey.

zetamind2000
Nov 6, 2007

I'm an alien.


I actually have read that article before, and I highly recommend it to anyone else that might be curious about how the Syrian Army is dragging itself along after years of warfare.

While the article itself is quite long and informative, this part in particular stuck out to me as being as the best summary of the regime's problems over the past year

quote:

This brings us back to the Tabqa offensive, where all of the points mentioned above in combination with a gross underestimation of the Islamic State's capabilities, poor planning, greatly exposed flanks and a lack of Russian support which was desperately needed to make such an operation succeed led to a veritable disaster.

The force tasked with capturing Tabqa airbase and the town of Tabqa itself consisted of no less than eleven different branches and factions out of three (technically four) different countries, comprising Suqour al-Sahraa', the Syrian Arab Army (further divided into at least two regiments, at least believed to have been part of the 4th Armoured Division), the Syrian Arab Air Force, the National Defence Force (further divided into the Golan Regiment and several smaller regiments), the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP), the Ba'ath Brigades, the Arab Nationalist Guard, the Republican Guard, Hizbullah, the Russian Army and the Russian Air Force, each operating its own tanks and equipment. In addition, the Syrian Navy Seals also took part in the operation, although it remains unknown under what branch this unit serves. No Shiite militias are believed to have taken part in the fighting, likely due to their preoccupation with holding the front in Southern Aleppo.

This force could call upon large numbers of tanks, artillery, multiple rocket launchers (MRLs), the Syrian Arab Air Force's (SyAAF) assets, including fighter-bombers and attack helicopers, the Russian Army's 291th artillery brigade operating 152mm 2A65 Msta-Bs and the Russian Air Force's (RuAF) Mi-24s forward deployed at Kweres airbase. The composition of tanks used by the various branches and factions involved in the conflict give a clear image of the current state of the regime's military and the logistical nightmare in equipping each and every tank with the right type of ammunition and spare parts. Participating in the offensive were: T-90s, T-72Bs, T-72AVs, a T-72AV 'TURMS-T', T-72M1s, T-62 Model 1967s and T-62 Model 1972s, T-55As, T-55Ms and T-55(A)MVs and BMP-1s. Artillery support was in the hands of truck-mounted anti-aircraft guns, Syrian-manned 122mm D-30 howitzers and 130mm M-46 field-guns and truck-mounted 107mm MRLs, 122mm BM-21s, IRAMs and 220mm BM-27s. The Russian Army provided one battery of 152mm 2A65 Msta-B howitzers. Surprisingly, the Russian Air Force limited its support to several Mi-24s, leaving the SyAAF to provide fast jets for aerial support to the advancing troops. The SyAAF however remains incapable of providing the same degree of air support as the RuAF has been doing over the past year. The SyAAF's SA-342 and Mi-25 attack helicopters also made an appearance over the battlefield, but ended up seeing almost no use during the offensive. Whether this was due to a lack of coordination between the SyAAF and the forces on the ground or due to a lack of sufficient operational airframes in the area remains unknown.

Altogether, these units posed an impressive force on paper. While the aerial support provided by the RuAF and the SyAAF was not up to the same standards seen during the offensive on Tadmur, the largely flat terrain around Tabqa was a huge advantage to the regime, sharply contrasting the mountainous area surrounding Tadmur. The force was mobilised for the upcoming offensive on the 1st of June, which was launched a day later. Spearheading the offensive was Suqour al-Sahraa', which deployed its Russian-delivered T-90s, T-72Bs, GAZ Tigers, Iveco LMs and armoured Ural-4320s, along with Russian advisors. Behind Suqour al-Sahraa' came the rest of the force, with the more experienced units operating closer to Suqour al-Sahraa' than the poorly trained units operating in the back and flanks. This immediately proved to be a problem however, as communication between such large numbers of units taking part has to be excellent in order to advance at the same time, inform other units about possible incoming attacks and to coordinate a possible retreat. Communication between all units was completely inadequate however, which would eventually result in the catastrophic defeat.

The funniest thing about this whole train wreck was when (if I'm remembering it correctly) one of the Syrian commanders involved in the operation publicly complained afterward about the lack of Russian air support.

zetamind2000 fucked around with this message at 05:41 on Sep 3, 2016

Ofaloaf
Feb 15, 2013

Grouchio posted:

How does one defend himself from a drone anyways?

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler

RZApublican posted:


The funniest thing about this whole train wreck was when (if I'm remembering it correctly) one of the Syrian commanders involved in the operation publicly complained afterward about the lack of Russian air support.

Which is one of the things mentioned in 'Why Arabs Lose Wars', after any catastrophic defeat it's the fault of Someone Else.

the JJ
Mar 31, 2011

CeeJee posted:

Which is one of the things mentioned in 'Why Arabs Lose Wars', after any catastrophic defeat it's the fault of Someone Else.

I really fail to see how this is a uniquely Arab quality.

A Festivus Miracle
Dec 19, 2012

I have come to discourse on the profound inequities of the American political system.

the JJ posted:

I really fail to see how this is a uniquely Arab quality.

It's not, but that's not the point. In the article, the author mentioned that this was a thing that happened regardless of whichever Arab country he went to - the officers blaming anything bad that happens on anybody but themselves. While this probably isn't a uniquely Arab quality, it certainly does shed light on the thinking of the nominal high command of the NDF if the fault of failed offensives isn't because piss-poor command structures, horrible troop quality, or terrible communication made it impossible for them to succeed.

If the first reaction of your commanding officers is to blame failure on anything but themselves, your commanding officers will never learn. The lessons the SAA needed to learn to win this war were multiple, and despite 5 straight years of civil war where they've failed to best an opponent that on paper they should've crushed before the civil war, they still haven't learned them.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Young Freud posted:

One of them explodes, judging from the sudden fire that breaks out in the second video. My guess is that they could be repurposed autocannon rounds or 30mm AGL grenades.

I'm trying to figure out how they're being dropped.

Probably an extra servo to release the bomb once triggered remotely. Our own goon hero Cy Brown hooked up a (tiny) rocket launcher to his plane for example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWEbbUczrYQ

Jippa
Feb 13, 2009

Charliegrs posted:

How the hell did a 12 year old British kid make it to the middle east to join ISIS?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...r-a7049066.html

1stGear
Jan 16, 2010

Here's to the new us.
Looking on syriancivilwarmap.com, any idea what the rationale behind the recent Daesh offensive near Al-Ra'i is? Are they just picking someone they can beat up?

Ikasuhito
Sep 29, 2013

Haram as Fuck.

1stGear posted:

Looking on syriancivilwarmap.com, any idea what the rationale behind the recent Daesh offensive near Al-Ra'i is? Are they just picking someone they can beat up?

I would say its more of a counterattack than an offensive. IS needs to have the Turkish border open to them so they can smuggle troops, supplies and oil across to keep the war effort going. As such its very important that they keep control of as much of the border as they can for as long as they can. It is an attack of necessity and desperation.

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

the JJ posted:

I really fail to see how this is a uniquely Arab quality.

My impression is that Arab countries have very similar military cultures and organization. Ie, the importance of 'face' among commanding officers that severely punishes failures and demands that commanders seem invincible, hence the tendency to blame others and inability to cop to your own mistakes and learn from them. Some individual officers with a head on their shoulders might thrive in such an environment regardless, but it does lead to inability to properly evaluate real military capabilities when all the officers are (expected to be) so bloody minded bravados.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Syria in a nutshell part 2 billion

https://twitter.com/jenanmoussa/status/772046351932780544

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

Friendly Humour posted:

My impression is that Arab countries have very similar military cultures and organization. Ie, the importance of 'face' among commanding officers that severely punishes failures and demands that commanders seem invincible, hence the tendency to blame others and inability to cop to your own mistakes and learn from them. Some individual officers with a head on their shoulders might thrive in such an environment regardless, but it does lead to inability to properly evaluate real military capabilities when all the officers are (expected to be) so bloody minded bravados.

Show me a military officer corp that's a meritocracy rather than a corrupt system rife with nepotism and internal politicking, and I'll show you a green dog.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Bit of movement in the Turkish invasion today:

https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/772059822976032768

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TROIKA CURES GREEK
Jun 30, 2015

by R. Guyovich

Volkerball posted:

Show me a military officer corp that's a meritocracy rather than a corrupt system rife with nepotism and internal politicking, and I'll show you a green dog.

I guess if you ignore scale completely and view everything as black and white, but that's a really dumb thing to do. I'm not sure why 'arab militaries tend to suck' ruffles so many feathers but the proof has kinda been in the pudding for the past century.

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