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AMorePerfctGoonion posted:When you finally pull the lever to vote for a candidate you are locking in your answer come hell or whitewater.
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# ? Sep 7, 2016 15:13 |
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# ? Jun 8, 2024 08:46 |
AMorePerfctGoonion posted:I'm disturbed by the narrowing of Clinton's lead, and have to admit I've been avoiding the election lately so I don't . However, I believe there are several factors that polls are not accounting for that favor Trump. I still think that there is going to be a Clinton landslide and that it will come out of nowhere and surprise the pollsters. I have hope on your first point, in that I think Clinton's outreach to the Hispanic community and Trump's comments on said community will drive more first-time voters. I would hesitate to call them entirely young voters though. Listen to the way that Flake and McCain talk about Arizona and the Hispanic population there. I think we'll see a really big percentage of first-time voters this year. As for how that would help, in the 2004-2012 presidential elections, non-Hispanic whites turn out 64-67% of the time and Black voters turn out 60-66% of the time. However, Hispanic voters turn out only 47-49.9% of the time. Hispanic voters also vote Republican about 30% of the time, compared to 10% for Black voters. If Hispanic voters turned out and voted the same as Black voters, Texas, and Arizona would be swing states. Obviously, that's not going to happen this election, but even marginal increases in turnout and marginal movement towards Democrats would put Florida out of reach, and there's no winning combination in the electoral college if Florida goes blue. If Florida goes Democrat, the best Trump could hope for would be to win New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada, which would produce a tie in the electoral college. And that's a best case scenario. Where I think it's going to be telling, and why I'm not personally sweating poll numbers, is the way that Obama outperformed his polls in 2012. He built a world-class GOTV apparatus, and by all accounts, Hillary is replicating Obama's playbook. And bear in mind that Obama outperformed against Romney, who put together as good of a GOTV operation as he could, and Trump seems to think that all he needs is a Twitter account. It's no reason to be overconfident, if anything, it's a cautionary statement against overconfidence, but I think that Hillary is in a decent place right now.
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# ? Sep 7, 2016 18:05 |
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Azathoth posted:If Hispanic voters turned out and voted the same as Black voters, Texas, and Arizona would be swing states. Obviously, that's not going to happen this election, but even marginal increases in turnout and marginal movement towards Democrats would put Florida out of reach, and there's no winning combination in the electoral college if Florida goes blue. Well, the silver lining of Puerto Rico's economic collapse is that large numbers of ready to vote Latinos have been pouring into places like Florida. I believe the majority of actual new voter registrations since 2012 has come from such migration within the US. Add in that the Cuban vote is getting less and less Republican friendly and the state is becoming ever more blue in the Presidential election. Too bad nobody but old assholes come out to vote in the midterms though.
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# ? Sep 8, 2016 00:22 |
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I'm fairly sure Hispanic first time voters are going to spike through the glass ceiling for Hillary. That and white women.
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# ? Sep 8, 2016 00:40 |
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Azathoth posted:I agree on your third point, and hope you're right about the first two. Excellent points. Trump seems to think GOTV is a cable channel. It's one thing to respond to a poll and another to actually get your rear end to Mars and vote on election day. I guess we should be thankful that Trump is both a control freak and a manchild so not only does he fire anyone who is competent and assertive enough to say no to the Donald, he has no interest in the boring parts of running a presidential campaign. He's only interested in getting off on his Nuremberg rallies, which must be crack cocaine to a narcissist. When this election is over it will be sad to see him holding rallies with only a few diehards showing up as tumbleweeds roll by. He'll go into severe ego withdrawal. I hope he pulls a Napoleon and retreats to a private island with a few sycophants. He can be A president, and keep out all the illegal immigrants he want. Another point I should have stated is that Trump supporters are actually more afraid of Clinton than Clinton supporters are afraid of Trump. Decades of right wing media hysteria about Clinton probably has a good part of the country thinking her presidency is literally referred to in Ezekiel 7:23 as the sign of the breaking of the seventh seal or something else you'd write after eating a bag of Jimson weed. So the fact that she is reaching out to Republicans is simply a sign that la abuela knows what's going down, and I don't think it signals any real movement towards the right. In fact all those Bernie supporters who told us that the Clintosaurus was a DINO should be eating their safety helmets at this point because she has committed herself to a very left wing platform. I really like all her policy statements so far, particularly her promise to put forward an amendment to overturn Citizens United. Since people constantly accuse her of being corrupt and the politicians' poltician, this should really get more play in the media. But expecting the media to be fair in this election is like expecting a Russian Olympian to take a responsible approach to chemical enhancement. The mental health thing will be useful for me, because after Nov 8 I am going to schedule myself a rigorous bout of electroconvulsive therapy so I forget the last 12 months ever happened and that Trump was ever a candidate for POTUS. I'm surprised that more Hispanics aren't rejecting Trump, I suspect it's the ladder kicking phenomena at work in which recent immigrants become ultrapatriotic anti-immigration diehards. A second generation immigrant friend of mine resents illegal immigrants to the point that he wants to work in the Coastguard and keep out people who coming in the same way that many of his countrymen did after Vietnam. What can you say to that?
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# ? Sep 8, 2016 01:36 |
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I realized this thread was a thing that existed like a week or two ago but I figured I'd wait for a point where Hillary wasn't doing as well in the polls before I toxxed so I wouldn't look like a total groupie. God help us all if Trump wins. (USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST)
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# ? Sep 8, 2016 02:28 |
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if trump wins in november i've got bigger problems to worry about than a forums account
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# ? Sep 8, 2016 02:43 |
Instant Sunrise posted:if trump wins in november i've got bigger problems to worry about than a forums account
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# ? Sep 8, 2016 03:34 |
Gyges posted:Well, the silver lining of Puerto Rico's economic collapse is that large numbers of ready to vote Latinos have been pouring into places like Florida. I believe the majority of actual new voter registrations since 2012 has come from such migration within the US. Add in that the Cuban vote is getting less and less Republican friendly and the state is becoming ever more blue in the Presidential election. Too bad nobody but old assholes come out to vote in the midterms though. AMorePerfctGoonion posted:Excellent points. Trump seems to think GOTV is a cable channel. It's one thing to respond to a poll and another to actually get your rear end to Mars and vote on election day. I guess we should be thankful that Trump is both a control freak and a manchild so not only does he fire anyone who is competent and assertive enough to say no to the Donald, he has no interest in the boring parts of running a presidential campaign. He's only interested in getting off on his Nuremberg rallies, which must be crack cocaine to a narcissist. When this election is over it will be sad to see him holding rallies with only a few diehards showing up as tumbleweeds roll by. He'll go into severe ego withdrawal. I hope he pulls a Napoleon and retreats to a private island with a few sycophants. He can be A president, and keep out all the illegal immigrants he want. As for Hispanics not rejecting Trump, it's important to remember just how many Hispanics would self-identify as non-Hispanic white and/or feel no kinship with minority groups. It's something that's played out over the course of American history, so it shouldn't really be surprising. It wasn't that long ago that Irish and Italian immigrants in the northern part of the U.S. were treated as an entirely separate demographic, what I've heard referred to as "northern ethnics". Aside from being more recent immigrants, they also were heavily Catholic, which was a way bigger deal back then than it is now. In time, they ceased voting as a block and are now included in the general "non-Hispanic white" category in all these polls. I could keep going back to other immigrant groups before that, because waves of immigration like this happen more often than you'd think, but I think I've made my point. It's the one counter-argument to the demography=destiny argument that Republicans will become increasingly marginalized each election cycle that I find to be potentially compelling. It's also worth noting that Hispanic voters have, on occasion, been amenable to the Republicans pretty recently. George W. Bush did particularly well by de-emphasizing immigration rhetoric and emphasizing socially conservative policies, which adhered well to what the Catholic Church promoted. Also remember that W. won New Mexico in 2004, which subsequently went to Obama by 15% and 10% in the next two elections, largely on changes in the voting patterns of non-white Hispanics in the state. Granted, the Republicans keep shooting themselves in the foot, legs, and arms on immigration policy and minority outreach, so there's a better chance than not that the Hispanic vote becomes increasingly solidly Democratic, but I don't think that it can be taken as a given.
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# ? Sep 8, 2016 04:11 |
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Anyone have a link to the old 2008-era McCain/Obama toxx threads? Wanted to read them again, and I can't find them anywhere.
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# ? Sep 8, 2016 08:21 |
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Sweet Grandiosa Abuela! Trump's moving down on 538, finally. I think we've just reached peak trump and it's all downhill from here. The Clinton Landslide Has Begun, Racists Take Shelter! Azathoth: I'd love to reply to your comment but this animated gif background is messing with my browser. Probably a problem on my side... anyway else having issues?
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# ? Sep 8, 2016 13:35 |
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Yeah it sucks
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# ? Sep 8, 2016 14:06 |
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The background is actually awesome and works great with Firefox.
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# ? Sep 8, 2016 14:17 |
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Thump! posted:The background is actually awesome and works great with Firefox.
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# ? Sep 8, 2016 14:32 |
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Posting here because every time I comment in CSpam I have a moment of gut clenching fear that I'm accidentally posting in Trump/3rd party threads. Hillary is gonna win by a lot.
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# ? Sep 8, 2016 14:56 |
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Eifert Posting posted:Posting here because every time I comment in CSpam I have a moment of gut clenching fear that I'm accidentally posting in Trump/3rd party threads. Pretty much. I only look at the third party thread to see if anyone new pledged to Lowtax. I stay out of the Trump thread.
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# ? Sep 8, 2016 15:18 |
AMorePerfctGoonion posted:Sweet Grandiosa Abuela! Trump's moving down on 538, finally. I think we've just reached peak trump and it's all downhill from here. The Clinton Landslide Has Begun, Racists Take Shelter! using chrome? go to chrome://flags and 1. enable GPU rasterization. 2. Set the next option to at least 4.
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# ? Sep 8, 2016 17:03 |
AMorePerfctGoonion posted:Sweet Grandiosa Abuela! Trump's moving down on 538, finally. I think we've just reached peak trump and it's all downhill from here. The Clinton Landslide Has Begun, Racists Take Shelter!
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# ? Sep 8, 2016 19:00 |
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Mrit posted:Anyone have a link to the old 2008-era McCain/Obama toxx threads? Wanted to read them again, and I can't find them anywhere. I'm not sure there were separate threads back then, and even if so they would have likely ended up in LF, so digging any remnant out would be tricking at this juncture.
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# ? Sep 8, 2016 19:11 |
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Captain_Maclaine posted:I'm not sure there were separate threads back then, and even if so they would have likely ended up in LF, so digging any remnant out would be tricking at this juncture. Pretty sure LF still exists, and archives can see it. I just cant find my way there. Edit: Okay, looks like in 2008 toxx bets were made randomly in supporters threads? Oh, and LF was good and cool. Edit2: Duh, search for bans in Nov 2008, McCain toxx thread: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=2925554 Edit3: And the Obama 2008 toxx thread: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=2848731 Mrit has issued a correction as of 19:54 on Sep 8, 2016 |
# ? Sep 8, 2016 19:36 |
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Whatever happened to that "la-la-la-landslide" Romney poster from 2012?
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# ? Sep 9, 2016 01:17 |
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plasticowlmachine posted:Whatever happened to that "la-la-la-landslide" Romney poster from 2012? What, Hnak? He got banned and thankfully didn't rereg as far as I know.
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# ? Sep 9, 2016 03:04 |
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zen death robot posted:how did everyone miss the fact that this guy double-toxxed? I already hit him for that, which is where is red title comes from.
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# ? Sep 9, 2016 05:02 |
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Mrit posted:Pretty sure LF still exists, and archives can see it. I just cant find my way there. RentACop had a fairly solid post in the Romney toxx thread once it hit the "oh poo poo, we're all gonna get banned" stage. https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3508392&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=26#post409334036 Technogeek has issued a correction as of 06:42 on Sep 9, 2016 |
# ? Sep 9, 2016 06:39 |
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zen death robot posted:how did everyone miss the fact that this guy double-toxxed? Snitches get stitches.
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# ? Sep 9, 2016 07:07 |
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I don't read the other thread. Distracts from my posting about how Hillary's giving Trump a new eye socket with her heel in November.
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# ? Sep 9, 2016 07:21 |
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zen death robot posted:how did everyone miss the fact that this guy double-toxxed? Hey I just go over there to poke fun at them and in their spitefulness and desperation they give me their increasingly ugly towers, how's that my fault
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# ? Sep 9, 2016 08:06 |
Technogeek posted:RentACop had a fairly solid post in the Romney toxx thread once it hit the "oh poo poo, we're all gonna get banned" stage. Lol that all of them are back and have the tower No pattern recognition But hey, republican voters
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# ? Sep 9, 2016 13:17 |
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EmperorFritoBandito posted:Hey I just go over there to poke fun at them and in their spitefulness and desperation they give me their increasingly ugly towers, how's that my fault Yeah, you're not supposed to do that champ, which is why we keep hitting you with things. Toxx threads are meant to be for supporters (or those willing to shitpost exclusively as one) only.*
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# ? Sep 9, 2016 16:26 |
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Did I miss the boat on Lyin' Crooked Hillary?
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# ? Sep 9, 2016 17:27 |
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yeah i was wondering how to get one of those gang tags.
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# ? Sep 9, 2016 17:33 |
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Anyone can toxx for Hillary. But a tag wearer? They are willing to take a permaban toxx for her.
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# ? Sep 9, 2016 17:40 |
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My life for Abuela!
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# ? Sep 9, 2016 17:55 |
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Mrit posted:Anyone can toxx for Hillary. But a tag wearer? They are willing to take a permaban toxx for her. Note: This is no longer a guaranteed avenue to the gang tag.
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# ? Sep 9, 2016 18:10 |
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i want people to do goofy poo poo for the tag in addition to permatoxxing
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# ? Sep 9, 2016 18:11 |
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for hillary (USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST)
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# ? Sep 9, 2016 20:21 |
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Captain_Maclaine posted:Yeah, you're not supposed to do that champ, Psst I know that quote:which is why we keep hitting you with things. Thank you for making my accouterments look more awesome and perfect, I love it E: Guess I should thank ZDR, thank you sincerely, ZDR
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# ? Sep 9, 2016 22:34 |
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EmperorFritoBandito posted:Psst I know that Didn't I just see you in the third party toxx thread?
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# ? Sep 10, 2016 01:04 |
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super mario batali posted:Didn't I just see you in the third party toxx thread? Don't insult me
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# ? Sep 10, 2016 02:02 |
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# ? Jun 8, 2024 08:46 |
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Technogeek posted:RentACop had a fairly solid post in the Romney toxx thread once it hit the "oh poo poo, we're all gonna get banned" stage. "please educate yourselves, goddamn' probably my favorite post from the whole thing
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# ? Sep 10, 2016 13:01 |