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iospace
Jan 19, 2038


AMorePerfctGoonion posted:

When you finally pull the lever to vote for a candidate you are locking in your answer come hell or whitewater.

:golfclap:

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Azathoth
Apr 3, 2001

AMorePerfctGoonion posted:

I'm disturbed by the narrowing of Clinton's lead, and have to admit I've been avoiding the election lately so I don't :derp:. However, I believe there are several factors that polls are not accounting for that favor Trump. I still think that there is going to be a Clinton landslide and that it will come out of nowhere and surprise the pollsters.

Firstly, there may be underage supporters who may be falsely responding to phone and internet polls and are responsible Trump's disproportionate support on social media. Trump seems to appeal to the immature - both figurative and literally - particularly those with daddy issues. Just look at the_donald, the single largest online community of Trump supporters, with up to 6000 exchanging their deep thoughts about Trump ("WORSHIP THE GOD EMPEROR") at any one time. If you look at the posts (as briefly as possible or you could inflict permanent damage to your frontal cortex) you will notice that it is full of shitposts and That Stupid loving Frog. I suspect most of these supporters are Trumplings of the 14 and under "little poo poo" demographic whom are of no value, electorally or, for that matter, otherwise.
Secondly, even if you support Trump you must admit that Trump represents uncertainty and risk. If you have nothing to lose, like Trump's white trash base, this is fine. Hey, the price of crystal meth might even fall as America crashes and burns. Unfortunately for Trump most people have a lot to lose and they also have their children and grandchildren's prospects to consider. Notice how la Abuela has focused on children in several of her advertisements? Children makes us think about the future and hence what Trump might do to this country. Just like Trump uses the fear of Death as his leitmotif to bring out the worst in his supporters, who think about the present with fear and an imagined past rather than the future.

When you finally pull the lever to vote for a candidate you are locking in your answer come hell or whitewater. You are now responsible for that candidate's actions might they win, even if that responsibility is shared among millions, a little of that burden now rests upon your slumped shoulders. Usually this doesn't matter because everyone knows that the candidates are likely to do what they say they are going to do. Democrats will help out the small guy, Republicans will take a great big dump on him. But Trump is unusual because he has no fixed policies, no moral convictions and seems uninterested in anything that happens after November 8. Even 66% of his supporters don't think he will follow through with the centrepiece of his campaign - we know he wants to win, but beyond that he is a black box. (Personally I think he is going to become a Putanista strongman, elevate his friends and family to oligarchs and otherwise run all of this poo poo we call America straight into the loving ground.)

I believe many people who have no problem with telling a pollster now that they support Trump are motivated by the habit of supporting a republican candidate and/or the current visibility of the Clinton scandals in the media. When the time comes to actually vote they may have second thoughts about letting Trump go ahead and stomp illegal immigrants into little pieces wearing the leftover mechanized armour from avatar. Hey, it's as likely to happen as the wall.

Thirdly, we have many people supporting third party candidates because they are hoping for a snowball effect that will make their candidate viable by November 8, but when the time comes to vote, many of these people may realize that they are throwing their vote away in one of the most important elections of our lives and may turn their nose up and reluctantly vote for one of the two viable candidates. Who will they choose? Trump's campaign is a turbocharged, overclocked scandal generator running at critical temperature, operated by a deranged crew of death cultists whereas la Abuela has two scandals. Two scandals that the media have wrung every last drop of blood from. Trump is the black hole of uncertainty whereas Clinton is essentially Obama's third term. I think we all know who they will choose.

...at least this is what I'm telling myself so i don't jump out the nearest window. Sorry for the mindbarf.
I agree on your third point, and hope you're right about the first two.

I have hope on your first point, in that I think Clinton's outreach to the Hispanic community and Trump's comments on said community will drive more first-time voters. I would hesitate to call them entirely young voters though. Listen to the way that Flake and McCain talk about Arizona and the Hispanic population there. I think we'll see a really big percentage of first-time voters this year.

As for how that would help, in the 2004-2012 presidential elections, non-Hispanic whites turn out 64-67% of the time and Black voters turn out 60-66% of the time. However, Hispanic voters turn out only 47-49.9% of the time. Hispanic voters also vote Republican about 30% of the time, compared to 10% for Black voters.

If Hispanic voters turned out and voted the same as Black voters, Texas, and Arizona would be swing states. Obviously, that's not going to happen this election, but even marginal increases in turnout and marginal movement towards Democrats would put Florida out of reach, and there's no winning combination in the electoral college if Florida goes blue.

If Florida goes Democrat, the best Trump could hope for would be to win New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada, which would produce a tie in the electoral college. And that's a best case scenario.

Where I think it's going to be telling, and why I'm not personally sweating poll numbers, is the way that Obama outperformed his polls in 2012. He built a world-class GOTV apparatus, and by all accounts, Hillary is replicating Obama's playbook. And bear in mind that Obama outperformed against Romney, who put together as good of a GOTV operation as he could, and Trump seems to think that all he needs is a Twitter account.

It's no reason to be overconfident, if anything, it's a cautionary statement against overconfidence, but I think that Hillary is in a decent place right now.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Azathoth posted:

If Hispanic voters turned out and voted the same as Black voters, Texas, and Arizona would be swing states. Obviously, that's not going to happen this election, but even marginal increases in turnout and marginal movement towards Democrats would put Florida out of reach, and there's no winning combination in the electoral college if Florida goes blue.

Well, the silver lining of Puerto Rico's economic collapse is that large numbers of ready to vote Latinos have been pouring into places like Florida. I believe the majority of actual new voter registrations since 2012 has come from such migration within the US. Add in that the Cuban vote is getting less and less Republican friendly and the state is becoming ever more blue in the Presidential election. Too bad nobody but old assholes come out to vote in the midterms though.

Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx
I'm fairly sure Hispanic first time voters are going to spike through the glass ceiling for Hillary.

That and white women.

AMorePerfctGoonion
Aug 11, 2016

by exmarx

Azathoth posted:

I agree on your third point, and hope you're right about the first two.

I have hope on your first point, in that I think Clinton's outreach to the Hispanic community and Trump's comments on said community will drive more first-time voters. I would hesitate to call them entirely young voters though. Listen to the way that Flake and McCain talk about Arizona and the Hispanic population there. I think we'll see a really big percentage of first-time voters this year.

As for how that would help, in the 2004-2012 presidential elections, non-Hispanic whites turn out 64-67% of the time and Black voters turn out 60-66% of the time. However, Hispanic voters turn out only 47-49.9% of the time. Hispanic voters also vote Republican about 30% of the time, compared to 10% for Black voters.

If Hispanic voters turned out and voted the same as Black voters, Texas, and Arizona would be swing states. Obviously, that's not going to happen this election, but even marginal increases in turnout and marginal movement towards Democrats would put Florida out of reach, and there's no winning combination in the electoral college if Florida goes blue.

If Florida goes Democrat, the best Trump could hope for would be to win New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada, which would produce a tie in the electoral college. And that's a best case scenario.

Where I think it's going to be telling, and why I'm not personally sweating poll numbers, is the way that Obama outperformed his polls in 2012. He built a world-class GOTV apparatus, and by all accounts, Hillary is replicating Obama's playbook. And bear in mind that Obama outperformed against Romney, who put together as good of a GOTV operation as he could, and Trump seems to think that all he needs is a Twitter account.

It's no reason to be overconfident, if anything, it's a cautionary statement against overconfidence, but I think that Hillary is in a decent place right now.

Excellent points. Trump seems to think GOTV is a cable channel. It's one thing to respond to a poll and another to actually get your rear end to Mars and vote on election day. I guess we should be thankful that Trump is both a control freak and a manchild so not only does he fire anyone who is competent and assertive enough to say no to the Donald, he has no interest in the boring parts of running a presidential campaign. He's only interested in getting off on his Nuremberg rallies, which must be crack cocaine to a narcissist. When this election is over it will be sad to see him holding rallies with only a few diehards showing up as tumbleweeds roll by. He'll go into severe ego withdrawal. I hope he pulls a Napoleon and retreats to a private island with a few sycophants. He can be A president, and keep out all the illegal immigrants he want.

Another point I should have stated is that Trump supporters are actually more afraid of Clinton than Clinton supporters are afraid of Trump. Decades of right wing media hysteria about Clinton probably has a good part of the country thinking her presidency is literally referred to in Ezekiel 7:23 as the sign of the breaking of the seventh seal or something else you'd write after eating a bag of Jimson weed. So the fact that she is reaching out to Republicans is simply a sign that la abuela knows what's going down, and I don't think it signals any real movement towards the right.

In fact all those Bernie supporters who told us that the Clintosaurus was a DINO should be eating their safety helmets at this point because she has committed herself to a very left wing platform. I really like all her policy statements so far, particularly her promise to put forward an amendment to overturn Citizens United. Since people constantly accuse her of being corrupt and the politicians' poltician, this should really get more play in the media. But expecting the media to be fair in this election is like expecting a Russian Olympian to take a responsible approach to chemical enhancement. The mental health thing will be useful for me, because after Nov 8 I am going to schedule myself a rigorous bout of electroconvulsive therapy so I forget the last 12 months ever happened and that Trump was ever a candidate for POTUS.

I'm surprised that more Hispanics aren't rejecting Trump, I suspect it's the ladder kicking phenomena at work in which recent immigrants become ultrapatriotic anti-immigration diehards. A second generation immigrant friend of mine resents illegal immigrants to the point that he wants to work in the Coastguard and keep out people who coming in the same way that many of his countrymen did after Vietnam. What can you say to that?

Lightning Knight
Feb 24, 2012

Pray for Answer
I realized this thread was a thing that existed like a week or two ago but I figured I'd wait for a point where Hillary wasn't doing as well in the polls before I toxxed so I wouldn't look like a total groupie.

God help us all if Trump wins. :suicide:

(USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST)

Instant Sunrise
Apr 12, 2007


The manger babies don't have feelings. You said it yourself.
if trump wins in november i've got bigger problems to worry about than a forums account

Azathoth
Apr 3, 2001

Instant Sunrise posted:

if trump wins in november i've got bigger problems to worry about than a forums account
I'm already stockpiling shotgun shells and copies of Crippled America as a hedge.

Azathoth
Apr 3, 2001

Gyges posted:

Well, the silver lining of Puerto Rico's economic collapse is that large numbers of ready to vote Latinos have been pouring into places like Florida. I believe the majority of actual new voter registrations since 2012 has come from such migration within the US. Add in that the Cuban vote is getting less and less Republican friendly and the state is becoming ever more blue in the Presidential election. Too bad nobody but old assholes come out to vote in the midterms though.
I wish, I wish, I wish that Democrats could figure out how to get people out to vote in midterms.

AMorePerfctGoonion posted:

Excellent points. Trump seems to think GOTV is a cable channel. It's one thing to respond to a poll and another to actually get your rear end to Mars and vote on election day. I guess we should be thankful that Trump is both a control freak and a manchild so not only does he fire anyone who is competent and assertive enough to say no to the Donald, he has no interest in the boring parts of running a presidential campaign. He's only interested in getting off on his Nuremberg rallies, which must be crack cocaine to a narcissist. When this election is over it will be sad to see him holding rallies with only a few diehards showing up as tumbleweeds roll by. He'll go into severe ego withdrawal. I hope he pulls a Napoleon and retreats to a private island with a few sycophants. He can be A president, and keep out all the illegal immigrants he want.

Another point I should have stated is that Trump supporters are actually more afraid of Clinton than Clinton supporters are afraid of Trump. Decades of right wing media hysteria about Clinton probably has a good part of the country thinking her presidency is literally referred to in Ezekiel 7:23 as the sign of the breaking of the seventh seal or something else you'd write after eating a bag of Jimson weed. So the fact that she is reaching out to Republicans is simply a sign that la abuela knows what's going down, and I don't think it signals any real movement towards the right.

In fact all those Bernie supporters who told us that the Clintosaurus was a DINO should be eating their safety helmets at this point because she has committed herself to a very left wing platform. I really like all her policy statements so far, particularly her promise to put forward an amendment to overturn Citizens United. Since people constantly accuse her of being corrupt and the politicians' poltician, this should really get more play in the media. But expecting the media to be fair in this election is like expecting a Russian Olympian to take a responsible approach to chemical enhancement. The mental health thing will be useful for me, because after Nov 8 I am going to schedule myself a rigorous bout of electroconvulsive therapy so I forget the last 12 months ever happened and that Trump was ever a candidate for POTUS.

I'm surprised that more Hispanics aren't rejecting Trump, I suspect it's the ladder kicking phenomena at work in which recent immigrants become ultrapatriotic anti-immigration diehards. A second generation immigrant friend of mine resents illegal immigrants to the point that he wants to work in the Coastguard and keep out people who coming in the same way that many of his countrymen did after Vietnam. What can you say to that?
I'm convinced that Trump's post-election play is to set up a right-wing news channel to compete with Fox News if he loses. I think he's gonna go back to doing the same stuff he did before, being a blowhard on national television, only this time, he'll own the network. It'll be you're standard fearmongering, only with Clinton coming to take away your guns, gold, and colloidal silver instead of Obama. I'm sure UN and FEMA paranoia will play a large role as well.

As for Hispanics not rejecting Trump, it's important to remember just how many Hispanics would self-identify as non-Hispanic white and/or feel no kinship with minority groups. It's something that's played out over the course of American history, so it shouldn't really be surprising. It wasn't that long ago that Irish and Italian immigrants in the northern part of the U.S. were treated as an entirely separate demographic, what I've heard referred to as "northern ethnics". Aside from being more recent immigrants, they also were heavily Catholic, which was a way bigger deal back then than it is now. In time, they ceased voting as a block and are now included in the general "non-Hispanic white" category in all these polls. I could keep going back to other immigrant groups before that, because waves of immigration like this happen more often than you'd think, but I think I've made my point.

It's the one counter-argument to the demography=destiny argument that Republicans will become increasingly marginalized each election cycle that I find to be potentially compelling. It's also worth noting that Hispanic voters have, on occasion, been amenable to the Republicans pretty recently. George W. Bush did particularly well by de-emphasizing immigration rhetoric and emphasizing socially conservative policies, which adhered well to what the Catholic Church promoted. Also remember that W. won New Mexico in 2004, which subsequently went to Obama by 15% and 10% in the next two elections, largely on changes in the voting patterns of non-white Hispanics in the state.

Granted, the Republicans keep shooting themselves in the foot, legs, and arms on immigration policy and minority outreach, so there's a better chance than not that the Hispanic vote becomes increasingly solidly Democratic, but I don't think that it can be taken as a given.

Mrit
Sep 26, 2007

by exmarx
Grimey Drawer
Anyone have a link to the old 2008-era McCain/Obama toxx threads? Wanted to read them again, and I can't find them anywhere.

AMorePerfctGoonion
Aug 11, 2016

by exmarx
Sweet Grandiosa Abuela! Trump's moving down on 538, finally. I think we've just reached peak trump and it's all downhill from here. The Clinton Landslide Has Begun, Racists Take Shelter!

Azathoth: I'd love to reply to your comment but this animated gif background is messing with my browser. Probably a problem on my side... anyway else having issues?

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Yeah it sucks

Thump!
Nov 25, 2007

Look, fat, here's the fact, Kulak!



The background is actually awesome and works great with Firefox.

Lastgirl
Sep 7, 1997


Good Morning!
Sunday Morning!

Thump! posted:

The background is actually awesome and works great with Firefox.

Eifert Posting
Apr 1, 2007

Most of the time he catches it every time.
Grimey Drawer
Posting here because every time I comment in CSpam I have a moment of gut clenching fear that I'm accidentally posting in Trump/3rd party threads.

Hillary is gonna win by a lot.

iospace
Jan 19, 2038


Eifert Posting posted:

Posting here because every time I comment in CSpam I have a moment of gut clenching fear that I'm accidentally posting in Trump/3rd party threads.

Hillary is gonna win by a lot.

Pretty much. I only look at the third party thread to see if anyone new pledged :10bux: to Lowtax. I stay out of the Trump thread.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.

AMorePerfctGoonion posted:

Sweet Grandiosa Abuela! Trump's moving down on 538, finally. I think we've just reached peak trump and it's all downhill from here. The Clinton Landslide Has Begun, Racists Take Shelter!

Azathoth: I'd love to reply to your comment but this animated gif background is messing with my browser. Probably a problem on my side... anyway else having issues?

using chrome? go to chrome://flags and

1. enable GPU rasterization.
2. Set the next option to at least 4.

Azathoth
Apr 3, 2001

AMorePerfctGoonion posted:

Sweet Grandiosa Abuela! Trump's moving down on 538, finally. I think we've just reached peak trump and it's all downhill from here. The Clinton Landslide Has Begun, Racists Take Shelter!

Azathoth: I'd love to reply to your comment but this animated gif background is messing with my browser. Probably a problem on my side... anyway else having issues?
I used my ad blocker to block the specific image and that fixed it. I'm phone posting so I don't have the exact name, but it had "Halloween" in the name I remember.

Captain_Maclaine
Sep 30, 2001

Every moment that I'm alive, I pray for death!

Mrit posted:

Anyone have a link to the old 2008-era McCain/Obama toxx threads? Wanted to read them again, and I can't find them anywhere.

I'm not sure there were separate threads back then, and even if so they would have likely ended up in LF, so digging any remnant out would be tricking at this juncture.

Mrit
Sep 26, 2007

by exmarx
Grimey Drawer

Captain_Maclaine posted:

I'm not sure there were separate threads back then, and even if so they would have likely ended up in LF, so digging any remnant out would be tricking at this juncture.

Pretty sure LF still exists, and archives can see it. I just cant find my way there.
Edit: Okay, looks like in 2008 toxx bets were made randomly in supporters threads? Oh, and LF was good and cool.
Edit2: Duh, search for bans in Nov 2008, McCain toxx thread: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=2925554
Edit3: And the Obama 2008 toxx thread: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=2848731

Mrit has issued a correction as of 19:54 on Sep 8, 2016

plasticowlmachine
Oct 12, 2012

by exmarx
Whatever happened to that "la-la-la-landslide" Romney poster from 2012?

Captain_Maclaine
Sep 30, 2001

Every moment that I'm alive, I pray for death!

plasticowlmachine posted:

Whatever happened to that "la-la-la-landslide" Romney poster from 2012?

What, Hnak? He got banned and thankfully didn't rereg as far as I know.

Captain_Maclaine
Sep 30, 2001

Every moment that I'm alive, I pray for death!

zen death robot posted:

how did everyone miss the fact that this guy double-toxxed?

I already hit him for that, which is where is red title comes from.

Technogeek
Sep 9, 2002

by FactsAreUseless

Mrit posted:

Pretty sure LF still exists, and archives can see it. I just cant find my way there.
Edit: Okay, looks like in 2008 toxx bets were made randomly in supporters threads? Oh, and LF was good and cool.
Edit2: Duh, search for bans in Nov 2008, McCain toxx thread: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=2925554
Edit3: And the Obama 2008 toxx thread: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=2848731

RentACop had a fairly solid post in the Romney toxx thread once it hit the "oh poo poo, we're all gonna get banned" stage.

https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3508392&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=26#post409334036

Technogeek has issued a correction as of 06:42 on Sep 9, 2016

The Ninth Layer
Jun 20, 2007

zen death robot posted:

how did everyone miss the fact that this guy double-toxxed?

Snitches get stitches.

Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx
I don't read the other thread. Distracts from my posting about how Hillary's giving Trump a new eye socket with her heel in November.

EmperorFritoBandito
Aug 7, 2010

by exmarx

zen death robot posted:

how did everyone miss the fact that this guy double-toxxed?

Hey I just go over there to poke fun at them and in their spitefulness and desperation they give me their increasingly ugly towers, how's that my fault

VAGENDA OF MANOCIDE
Aug 1, 2004

whoa, what just happened here?







College Slice

Technogeek posted:

RentACop had a fairly solid post in the Romney toxx thread once it hit the "oh poo poo, we're all gonna get banned" stage.

https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3508392&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=26#post409334036

Lol that all of them are back and have the tower

No pattern recognition

But hey, republican voters

Captain_Maclaine
Sep 30, 2001

Every moment that I'm alive, I pray for death!

EmperorFritoBandito posted:

Hey I just go over there to poke fun at them and in their spitefulness and desperation they give me their increasingly ugly towers, how's that my fault

Yeah, you're not supposed to do that champ, which is why we keep hitting you with things. Toxx threads are meant to be for supporters (or those willing to shitpost exclusively as one) only.*

Lightning Knight
Feb 24, 2012

Pray for Answer
Did I miss the boat on Lyin' Crooked Hillary? :ohdear:

Instant Sunrise
Apr 12, 2007


The manger babies don't have feelings. You said it yourself.
yeah i was wondering how to get one of those gang tags.

Mrit
Sep 26, 2007

by exmarx
Grimey Drawer
Anyone can toxx for Hillary. But a tag wearer? They are willing to take a permaban toxx for her.

The Ninth Layer
Jun 20, 2007

My life for Abuela!

Captain_Maclaine
Sep 30, 2001

Every moment that I'm alive, I pray for death!

Mrit posted:

Anyone can toxx for Hillary. But a tag wearer? They are willing to take a permaban toxx for her.

Note: This is no longer a guaranteed avenue to the gang tag.

Afraid of Audio
Oct 12, 2012

by exmarx
i want people to do goofy poo poo for the tag in addition to permatoxxing

super mario batali
Aug 1, 2013

Dice-a the Mushroom
Grimey Drawer
:toxx: for hillary

(USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST)

EmperorFritoBandito
Aug 7, 2010

by exmarx

Captain_Maclaine posted:

Yeah, you're not supposed to do that champ,

Psst I know that

quote:

which is why we keep hitting you with things.

Thank you for making my accouterments look more awesome and perfect, I love it

E: Guess I should thank ZDR, thank you sincerely, ZDR

super mario batali
Aug 1, 2013

Dice-a the Mushroom
Grimey Drawer

EmperorFritoBandito posted:

Psst I know that


Thank you for making my accouterments look more awesome and perfect, I love it

E: Guess I should thank ZDR, thank you sincerely, ZDR

Didn't I just see you in the third party toxx thread?

EmperorFritoBandito
Aug 7, 2010

by exmarx

super mario batali posted:

Didn't I just see you in the third party toxx thread?

Don't insult me

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Notable Dom X
Apr 3, 2011

by exmarx
Buglord

Technogeek posted:

RentACop had a fairly solid post in the Romney toxx thread once it hit the "oh poo poo, we're all gonna get banned" stage.

https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3508392&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=26#post409334036

"please educate yourselves, goddamn'

probably my favorite post from the whole thing

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