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BCRock posted:I saw the tweets coming and bailed on my NO shares at a 10c loss. First time I've sold at a loss. Boo. You're in luck - it's back up to 27c. This market is crazy.
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Sep 27, 2016 21:01
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kaishek posted:You're in luck - it's back up to 27c. This market is crazy. Lol nevermind back down in the teens. Still a profit from 7c Edit: hahahaha holy poo poo what is happening Hufflepuff or bust! has issued a correction as of 21:10 on Sep 27, 2016 |
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Sep 27, 2016 21:02
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Given the volatility I'm glad I sold at a 10 cent loss instead of trying to time when to sell it off. Goodbye $1, the 2/3rd's of a candy bar or a soda you could have bought will be missed.
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Sep 27, 2016 21:45
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RandomPauI posted:Given the volatility I'm glad I sold at a 10 cent loss instead of trying to time when to sell it off. Goodbye $1, the 2/3rd's of a candy bar or a soda you could have bought will be missed. With hindsight, I wish I had sold at 50c and then rebought at 9. Given how close the final result is likely to be (within 1 million of target) I think I made the right call based on EV but would rather have $30 at risk for the same number of shares than like $115
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Sep 27, 2016 22:03
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Sorry guys. That was so drat close! I got some yes at 80 and rode that up, made back some of my loss.
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Sep 27, 2016 22:16
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Yeah that was super close. Good gamble.
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Sep 27, 2016 22:20
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As for the VP debate, I'm thinking of doing No on all three. I think Sanctuary Cities is incredibly unlikely, yet I somehow got matched at 68 NO. I can see Pence saying "religious liberty" but not the moderator, which is the requirement. Seems awfully off-topic to ask Pence about Trump's tax returns. Out of all three I am least confident about NO here, but I'd still make a small bet. E: Official ratings numbers out. bought yes again at 97 FourLeaf has issued a correction as of 23:27 on Sep 27, 2016 |
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Sep 27, 2016 23:22
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I'm sure some of you are still making money from Bernbots, but I'm trying to unwind my dumb PREZ holdings and they're making it hard for me to do it without taking a small hit on my Bernie shares 
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Sep 27, 2016 23:25
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They included 13 networks, including PBS, in the numbers. Yes won. RIP.
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Sep 27, 2016 23:32
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Too bad the goon project failed (who could have seen that coming?). I blame a cop. Anyway, I still managed to hit my $5k milestone with the other debate stuff, and since this has been eating too much of my time anyway, I'm tapping out for now.  Goon luck to those that remain.
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Sep 27, 2016 23:50
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What was the goon project ?!?!?! Good job Vox. Im down a whole lot!
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Sep 27, 2016 23:57
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a cop posted:What was the goon project ?!?!?! Good job Vox. Im down a whole lot! Goon project was No on a record-setting debate. We were basically correct that the estimations were quite inflated, but in the end we still lost! I'm sure lots of people sold off some of their holdings, though, I know I did. Final score~~~  2500% returns on my second round of play, after fees (the withdrawal numbers shown are before the 5% hit, so I'll get $5044.42 before taxes).
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Sep 28, 2016 00:01
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I'm up :5bux:, mostly because I don't have the spare cash other dudes in this thread do, but it's honestly really fun to gently caress around with this.
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Sep 28, 2016 00:12
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I bought a share of no on trump being at all the debates.
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Sep 28, 2016 00:18
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Vox Nihili posted:Goon project was No on a record-setting debate. We were basically correct that the estimations were quite inflated, but in the end we still lost! I'm sure lots of people sold off some of their holdings, though, I know I did. Ohhh ok then yeah I accept the blame. I'm poison! And drat man, that shits impressive.
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Sep 28, 2016 00:21
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The pumping/dumping happening at the end was truly incredible. I realize that either I have a lot to learn, or need a LOT more spare time. I think there are still some technical aspects of this that are eluding me. Fortunately, overall on the debate questions I only came out down $40bux or so because of winning on NOs on all the moderator questions. I'm taking $60 positions on each of the NOs in the vice presidential debate with my remaining funds...I'm $300 in, and have $180 remaining.
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Sep 28, 2016 00:54
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We could have bought that aircraft carrier finally.
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Sep 28, 2016 01:00
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Vox Nihili posted:Goon project was No on a record-setting debate. We were basically correct that the estimations were quite inflated, but in the end we still lost! I'm sure lots of people sold off some of their holdings, though, I know I did. Congrats man! Treat yourself to something nice and unplug from the news cycle for a week or so. My returns were only half as good as yours through the primaries and I know I got burned out a few times, luckily I took my break the week of the Michigan goon massacre. There's money to be made in this site playing smart but it can for sure be a huge time sink. Reminder when it stops being fun it's time for a break!! I've personally pulled out after the conventions but will probably be jumping back in for the next debate.. the IRC channel was dead last I checked, is the slack channel active? If so where can I get an invite for those ~hot tips~ I will miss your tireless pumping in the comments though lol. Unrelated but I would love to read it if a whale/high roller wrote up their process for gambling/ what their daily time sink is using this site after it's all said and done. Not necessarily a goon but if anyone sees something like that posted somewhere like a blog or something link it here! dangling pointer has issued a correction as of 01:45 on Sep 28, 2016 |
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Sep 28, 2016 01:42
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dangling pointer posted:the IRC channel was dead last I checked, is the slack channel active? If so where can I get an invite for those ~hot tips~ Anyone already in the slack channel can invite you, but they need your email. E: you don't have PMs, maybe just post it and then edit it out? FourLeaf has issued a correction as of 03:23 on Sep 28, 2016 |
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Sep 28, 2016 01:51
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Vox Nihili posted:Goon project was No on a record-setting debate. We were basically correct that the estimations were quite inflated, but in the end we still lost! I'm sure lots of people sold off some of their holdings, though, I know I did. You're really good at this but when it stops being fun its time to get out. That was me this spring. Not nearly as good as you, but I still managed $500 into $1800 on the eve of Super Tuesday. Bet wrong on everything but still had $1400. I cashed $1000 out and decided to play with the rest. I got hit by 2 black swan events in a row (Cruz winning Maine, Bernie winning Michigan, went in all the way after Refdesk called it for Hillary) and cashed out again with about $9. Basically it sucked and I was shaken. They lured me back with a $25 credit if I put $25 in. I now have $80. For me that amount of money is fun. BTW, I made about $10 betting against everyone on the debate viewership. I hope this becomes fun for you at some time in the future; you make us all better
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Sep 28, 2016 03:05
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FourLeaf posted:Anyone already in the slack channel can invite you, but they need your email. Can you get me too? My junk email is edit: ty Oiled and Ready has issued a correction as of 03:55 on Sep 29, 2016 |
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Sep 29, 2016 00:34
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Oiled and Ready posted:Can you get me too? My junk email is [deleted] Done!
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Sep 29, 2016 01:29
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FourLeaf posted:Anyone already in the slack channel can invite you, but they need your email. PM me too, I'd love to get in on this.
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Sep 29, 2016 02:34
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Hufflepuff or bust! posted:The pumping/dumping happening at the end was truly incredible. I realize that either I have a lot to learn, or need a LOT more spare time. I think there are still some technical aspects of this that are eluding me. It's crazy that there are so many moderator question market when it turns out the moderator can only ask about like 6 of 1000 possible questions. It should be a "how many of these topics will the moderator bring up?" multibracket market. (And it should stay open during the debate  )
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Sep 29, 2016 02:36
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The markets are good the way they are. It’s not PI’s problem if people don’t place rational values on them.
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Sep 29, 2016 02:40
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theflyingexecutive posted:It's crazy that there are so many moderator question market when it turns out the moderator can only ask about like 6 of 1000 possible questions. It should be a "how many of these topics will the moderator bring up?" multibracket market. (And it should stay open during the debate Beware, some of the present mention markets trigger on candidate mentions as well as moderator mentions. Others still trigger only with moderator mentions.
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Sep 29, 2016 03:10
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Hosed again by the RCP intern.
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Sep 29, 2016 03:11
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EngineerSean posted:Hosed again by the RCP intern. What happened? Please describe in infuriating detail.
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Sep 29, 2016 03:30
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Vox Nihili posted:What happened? Please describe in infuriating detail. There’s a T v C polling market ending tonight. RCP added a new PPP late (past 21:00 EDT), pushing it into the top bracket.
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Sep 29, 2016 03:33
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Ah, looks like it was actually posted pretty promptly--just came out at an odd hour. Far from RCP's most egregious crime.
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Sep 29, 2016 03:44
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Yeah it's fair, I'm just pouty.
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Sep 29, 2016 04:11
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Well, looks like I'm going to lose or have lost the Congress acting on Zika bet.
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Sep 29, 2016 06:48
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anyone still in the Trump lies in September market? 3 or fewer is shooting up (would have been an amazing haul if you had the guts to buy during the debate), and I'm trying to decide if I should bail on my NOs with a tiny loss or keep buying - both seem entirely defensible to me
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Sep 30, 2016 07:41
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Don’t bet on polls, but if you do bet on polls, Trump v. Clinton in Florida ending today, strikes me as one of the better bets. As it stands, the market is in bracket 2, Clinton +0.1% to 0.9%. However, PPP released a poll yesterday, with Clinton up three points, that RCP hasn’t posted yet. It alone is enough to enough to push Clinton into the top bracket. New polls could be released today, but they’re very likely to put Clinton up at least one point , and any stale polls RCP drops from the average will benefit her. Essentially, it’s a bet on whether RCP will update. At the moment, B2 NO or B1 YES are at about 70¢, so you stand to make 40% returns if they do. If you want a really safe bet, NO in the bottom brackets will yield 1–4%, not bad for twenty‐four hours. At the same time, this illustrates why not to bet on polling markets. No one is in serious doubt that the situation on the ground in Florida has Clinton up more than one point, but the result is down to the whims of a third‐party website. Platystemon has issued a correction as of 11:07 on Sep 30, 2016 |
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Sep 30, 2016 10:58
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Betting on polls is fine as long as your admit to yourself it's a roulette wheel
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Sep 30, 2016 21:53
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Necc0 posted:Betting on polls is fine as long as your admit to yourself it's a roulette wheel or just play swings, news drops, and just odds
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Sep 30, 2016 23:39
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it happening folks: hillary yes/republican no is surging in ME-2. it's still a dank bet folks. as a noted poor, i cannot afford to buy more but as long as it's under 50 cents, i say cop that. it's a good bet. obama won that district 52-44 in 2012. in august, polling showed clinton ahead there and fivethirtyeight predicted a win for her; it looks like we're moving in that direction. as far as i can tell, predictit follows fivethirtyeight.
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Oct 1, 2016 06:55
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Not too late to get in on the slack channel is it? E: thanks! dik-dik has issued a correction as of 07:49 on Oct 2, 2016 |
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Oct 2, 2016 07:16
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Oct 3, 2016 06:25
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Terrible lottery ticket price
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Oct 3, 2016 07:01
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