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OAquinas posted:That's staking a lot on a single poll. I'd say its far more competitive than blood-red Utah normally is, but I'd need to see at least one corroborating poll with McMuffin in double digits before I'd stick a fork in Trump. Three previous Utah polls from before the debates (not to mention the tape) had him at 9%, 9%, and 12%. A week ago I was predicting that the next poll would show him gaining again, but I didn't predict by how much. I previously thought he'd just bleed some support from Trump and put Clinton within striking distance. And now that this poll has come out, many of the 48% of people in Utah who didn't know who he was are now aware of him, and at least a few of them will decide to vote for him. I've been reading Mormon blogs and newspapers to try to get a feel for this whole situation, and the Mormons are deathly serious about this guy, and deathly serious about their hatred for Trump. Mormons are unusual for religious conservatives in that they are VERY wary of calls to oppress a religious minority like Muslims because of their own recent history, and also they are very pro-immigration because of their huge emphasis on missionary work and the global Mormon church. They don't dislike Trump just because of the tape, they hate basically everything he stands for. Many people see McMullin as the only chance they have to cast a moral vote, and as a chance to demonstrate to America that they, unlike evangelicals, actually take their faith seriously and won't compromise it for political gains. showbiz_liz has issued a correction as of 23:14 on Oct 12, 2016 |
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Oct 12, 2016 23:11
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I think it all depends on whether Trump can close the gap enough in the polls to make the electoral votes in Utah potentially matter on election day. If election day rolls around and Hillary is still seriously looking at putting Georgia and Arizona in play, I could see the Mormon vote break hard against Trump. Don't forget that Mormons make up a small, but reliable block of Arizona's voters as well. I'll be watching what Gary Johnson's numbers do in Arizona polling, and if they keep going down and Hillary stays viable there, I think that can indirectly speak to McMullin's chances in Utah.
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Oct 12, 2016 23:22
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theflyingexecutive posted:Trump's not going to win Utah, the question is whether it goes blue or yellow. Hottest take of the thread, IMO.
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Oct 12, 2016 23:33
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I haven't paid attention to Predictit in months but holy poo poo I can buy some version of Clinton winning for only 82c I'm going full steam into that and not looking again for another month.
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Oct 13, 2016 05:44
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Shear Modulus posted:I haven't paid attention to Predictit in months but holy poo poo I can buy some version of Clinton winning for only 82c I'm going full steam into that and not looking again for another month. It was like 66c just 10 days ago.
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Oct 13, 2016 07:07
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Shear Modulus posted:I haven't paid attention to Predictit in months but holy poo poo I can buy some version of Clinton winning for only 82c I'm going full steam into that and not looking again for another month. this post rules
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Oct 13, 2016 08:07
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Vox Nihili posted:It was like 66c just 10 days ago. Entire civilizations have risen and fallen in that time. Trivial things like tax returns are what mattered in that era. It's a brave new world 
dangling pointer has issued a correction as of 08:34 on Oct 13, 2016 |
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Oct 13, 2016 08:25
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I bought at 40 cents after she fainted. Also, Trump might be pulling out of Virginia.
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Oct 13, 2016 08:36
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My Gain/Loss has been -$10 for days, and this morning I wake up to +0.60. Thanks for being a skeeze, Trump (not really).
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Oct 13, 2016 13:04
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Vox Nihili posted:It was like 66c just 10 days ago. drat.
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Oct 13, 2016 15:01
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Hi, I appreciate all the tipz, it made my summer a lot easier financially and I would like to suggest that, if you have made some moneys, you consider donating a little bit of that to RAINN. Check out the sticky. 
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Oct 13, 2016 15:03
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Fidel Castronaut posted:Hi, I appreciate all the tipz, it made my summer a lot easier financially and I would like to suggest that, if you have made some moneys, you consider donating a little bit of that to RAINN. Check out the sticky. Did so last night, donated $25. Vox Nihili posted:It was like 66c just 10 days ago.  the performance of maxed-out hillary and other related bets kept me sane during the last few weeks
DMCrimson has issued a correction as of 16:14 on Oct 13, 2016 |
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Oct 13, 2016 15:57
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Still a free 4% gain to be had in the 3rd party at a debate market. Doesn't close until Nov. 8, sadly, but I know some folks here have extra cash sitting around. https://www.predictit.org/Contract/2749/Will-a-third-party-candidate-participate-in-any-of-the-presidential-debates#openoffers
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Oct 13, 2016 17:26
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New Utah poll: Trump 34 Clinton 28 McMullin 20 Johnson 9 http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_UT_101316/
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Oct 13, 2016 20:10
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lol @ a candidate winning a state with less than 35% of the vote
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Oct 13, 2016 20:13
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http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-2016-the-waiting-game/ So Sabato is now predicting approximately 235 seats in the House for Republicans with the current polling, give or take around 5 seats: quote:So our current House ratings show 228 seats Safe, Likely, or Leaning Republican, 193 Safe/Likely/Leaning Democratic, and 14 Toss-ups. Splitting the Toss-ups down the middle seven to seven would make the House 235-200 Republican, or a net gain of 12 for the Democrats. We’ve consistently suggested a Democratic gain in the 10-15 range, and that’s where we remain as we await more information on whether Trump is truly dragging down House Republicans or not. The current House Seats market is pretty out of wack in favor of the Democrats: https://www.predictit.org/Market/2106/How-many-House-seats-will-the-GOP-hold-in-January IMO, B2 Yes is an insane steal at 5c (probably worth at least 15c) and B3 Yes is a pretty good buy at 30c, as it covers the expected range fairly well. However, the best deal is at B4+B5 No, both of which fall outside of Sabato's predicted range and currently cost 59c and 79c, respectively. With the linked market system that is a ridiculously good deal, suggesting only a 38% chance that it would fall outside that range even though the expert analysis seems to show something much closer to the inverse. Unfortunately, my money is all tied up in ridiculous debate gambits at the moment. Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 20:24 on Oct 13, 2016 |
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Oct 13, 2016 20:22
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Vox Nihili posted:Still a free 4% gain to be had in the 3rd party at a debate market. Doesn't close until Nov. 8, sadly, but I know some folks here have extra cash sitting around. Keep in mind, you need at least a 6% total return on your money to make a profit (10% reduction from your profits, and 5% reduction from your total funds when you cash out). Since it doesn't close until Nov. 8th, you might have a hard time finding anything else worthwhile to invest in. There's tons of markets that are 90/10 though that I would consider 'free money'. Discospawn has issued a correction as of 00:00 on Oct 14, 2016 |
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Oct 13, 2016 23:56
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Discospawn posted:Keep in mind, you need at least a 6% total return on your money to make a profit (10% reduction from your profits, and 5% reduction from your total funds when you cash out). Since it doesn't close until Nov. 8th, you might have a hard time finding anything else worthwhile to invest in. There's tons of markets that are 90/10 though that I would consider 'free money'. This is only true if you are only making one bet before cashing out, which seems kind of silly to me. Also the 10% fee is from your profits, so on a 4% return it would be 0.4 of your total bet. Not 1.
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Oct 14, 2016 01:23
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I got caught on the wrong side of the Jill Stein polling that's closing tomorrow. Fox replaced a 2 with a 3. I'm trying to figure out if the market reaction was justified or did YES overshoot
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Oct 14, 2016 01:37
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I got caught on the wrong side of the Jill Stein polling that's closing tomorrow. Fox replaced a 2 with a 3. I'm trying to figure out if the market reaction was justified or did YES overshoot Looks like that could depend on whether a new Economist/Yougov poll replaces the old one. But I think you're probably OK, it's just not as safe a position as it was before. It closes on Saturday, by the way.
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Oct 14, 2016 01:55
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Vox Nihili posted:Looks like that could depend on whether a new Economist/Yougov poll replaces the old one. But I think you're probably OK, it's just not as safe a position as it was before. YG on a Friday or Saturday seems unlikely though I have been burned before. YES needs Ras to tick up to 3 and another new 3 on top of that. Also if there are drops, two 3s are the first to die. I'm riding (some of) my NOs to the end.
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Oct 14, 2016 02:04
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Oct 14, 2016 18:19
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3 out of 5 pants on fires for Trump now. And we've got two more weeks and a debate! This is crazy.
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Oct 14, 2016 18:23
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Oct 14, 2016 18:33
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Fitzy Fitz posted:3 out of 5 pants on fires for Trump now. That market is the bullshitiest thing to bet on. Just 3 last month, and now they're doing one for chess? Mid-last month I said the exact same thing (we're already at 3, with still the debate to come!) and lost a chunk when I went into the higher brackets.
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Oct 14, 2016 18:40
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Nosre posted:That market is the bullshitiest thing to bet on. Just 3 last month, and now they're doing one for chess? Yeah I actually sold right after I posted that. Came out with +$9 instead of +$14, which is fine by me.
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Oct 14, 2016 19:14
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i dont know how i feel about things like this
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Oct 14, 2016 19:52
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I think the reason I'm going to get a W2-G form from PredictIt is because of guys like that
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Oct 14, 2016 20:34
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I've got $90 sitting after getting out of the handshake market. what's looking good out here?
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Oct 14, 2016 20:58
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IM DAY DAY IRL posted:I've got $90 sitting after getting out of the handshake market. what's looking good out here? That depends on your appetite for risk. There are a ton of really sure bets at 90c and some good +EV bets at 40-60.
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Oct 14, 2016 21:01
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Fidel Castronaut posted:Hi, I appreciate all the tipz, it made my summer a lot easier financially and I would like to suggest that, if you have made some moneys, you consider donating a little bit of that to RAINN. Check out the sticky. +1 for this - pulled out of PI and threw a bit of my (small compared to some of y'all, sheesh) profits in there. Turn some of the money y'all made off of Trump to this.
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Oct 14, 2016 21:37
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 EngineerSean. you made good posts itt
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Oct 14, 2016 21:40
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Necc0 posted:
aw thanks  edit: my final score is $2000 -> $13000 -> currently $8000. The minimum I stand to finish with is $3500 but I also have the following bets: 2000 shares of Republicans to win Arizona 2250 shares of Republicans to win Utah (consolation prize of $1100 if Utah goes third party) 2000 shares of Democrats to win Florida 2000 shares of Republicans to win Georgia 1200 shares of Democrats not getting 370 EV 550 shares of Democrat majority in the Senate 500 shares of Republican Senate seats to be 49 or less 500 shares of Republican Senate seats to be 53 or more So good luck me! EngineerSean has issued a correction as of 21:55 on Oct 14, 2016 |
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Oct 14, 2016 21:48
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Something key to remember for AZ is that legalization is on the ballot. You will have a lot of first time Democratic voters. I live in AZ and I have no idea which way it will go.
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Oct 14, 2016 23:25
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pro tip: this has all the markings of a massive wave year. public polls are not reflecting how bad things are going for the GOP because it's not what they're supposed to do - they're a nowcast and not really supposed to predict November 8th so much as show public attitudes October 14th. what they are consistently saying: -there are no pro-Trump undecideds -there are very few really energized Trump supporters, even in his base (20/77 role model lol) -he has a ceiling made out of titanium alloy -given he has that ceiling, the final margin is guaranteed to be broader than it appears there's a lot more than that but the bottom line is right after Halloween the public polls are very likely to shift in the same direction and the result will be...something don't bet on Republicans to win anything up to and including dog catcher and you will probably be pleasantly rewarded also, McMullin to win Utah is probably like 2/1 IRL
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Oct 14, 2016 23:57
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Adar posted:pro tip: this has all the markings of a massive wave year. public polls are not reflecting how bad things are going for the GOP because it's not what they're supposed to do - they're a nowcast and not really supposed to predict November 8th so much as show public attitudes October 14th. what they are consistently saying: Do you think the House might flip? Everything I've seen/read indicates that it won't.
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Oct 15, 2016 00:08
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if C+10 would be guaranteed to do it I think the answer is it flips nearly every time, but I have zero info on individual districts so it's a magical mystery box I'm that confident Hillary will outperform the current polls, though
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Oct 15, 2016 00:26
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Adar posted:if C+10 would be guaranteed to do it I think the answer is it flips nearly every time, but I have zero info on individual districts so it's a magical mystery box Sabato thinks we're in a no-flip scenario as of yesterday, based on some mix of actual individual district info and overall race metrics. http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-2016-the-waiting-game/
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Oct 15, 2016 01:06
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Sabato is basing this on a C+6 baseline. He hedges later on in the article when he brings up C+10 as a possibility but mentions the polls aren't there yet. What I'm saying is the fact that nearly every undecided voter has already ruled out Trump completely means the wave is coming from a direction that the polls are not picking up yet and won't until the last minute.
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Oct 15, 2016 10:55
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I think it is easy to overestimate Trump's impact on this race (which is ironic, because during the primaries he was constantly underestimated). A lot of 'independents' who always vote straight-ticket Republican are going to get to that ballot in November, see the 'R' next to Trump's name, and do what they always do. A lot of people who have heard negatives about Clinton for the past 2 decades see her more unfavorably than Trump, regardless of the specifics of either candidate and their actual behavior. I think typically Republican states are way undervalued right now (e.g. TX going Republican is at $.77) and that's where the money to be made is. It seems like any time anybody starts to push a narrative like, "don't look at the polls now, look at the future polls," you're more likely to be following a bandwagon that doesn't end up going anywhere.
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Oct 15, 2016 11:32
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