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Ditocoaf posted:I still don't get why Republican NO is consistently 3 cents cheaper than every equivalent-or-worse market. Is there some scenario I'm not seeing where Republican NO fails but Hillary YES and Woman Prez YES pay out? It seems like it would be the other way around, if anything. I chalk it up to trader inefficiency that people gravitate towards YES shares and not realize NO shares exist, tend to not realize how many equivalent markets there are, and infrequently do any day-trading which would quickly minimize differences. Not to mention how markets are more stable once maximum amount of traders are reached.
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Oct 17, 2016 21:09
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| # ? May 29, 2024 18:50 |
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I was able to play credit card deposit money in a significant amount immediately. So feel free to degen it the gently caress up.
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Oct 17, 2016 21:14
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I'm trying to figure out this line:quote:If an event does take place, all Yes shares are redeemed at $1. Does that mean that the Trump Lose shares I bought can be just cashed out after the election? Or do I have to time it and find a buyer on election day?
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Oct 17, 2016 21:30
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LinYutang posted:I'm trying to figure out this line: Unless there are massive recounts and uncertainty, PI will probably pay out those shares (for a full dollar each) within a day or three of the election. If you're impatient, you can usually sell your share for 99c (to let a loser get 1c out of their failed bet, or let someone else wait out that 99c turning into 100c).
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Oct 17, 2016 21:38
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Ditocoaf posted:Unless there are massive recounts and uncertainty, PI will probably pay out those shares (for a full dollar each) within a day or three of the election. If you're impatient, you can usually sell your share for 99c (to let a loser get 1c out of their failed bet, or let someone else wait out that 99c turning into 100c). Makes sense, thanks!
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Oct 17, 2016 21:41
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Nosre posted:https://www.predictit.org/Market/2451/What-will-be-the-2016-presidential-election-popular-vote-margin-of-victory is looking tempting with all this talk/signs of Clinton overperforming. If she beats 2008 Obama (7.26%) and gets to 8, the top 3 brackets can be had for 50c total. It may be a great bet, but the risk is that Trump racks up bigger wins in deep red states like Oklahoma, West Virginia, deep south than McCain or loses less bad in New England and the Mid Atlantic. Neither will sway the overall election but both could mean that Trump over performs relative to McCain. Trump will underperform in Utah, Georgia, Arizona, over perform in Iowa and Indiana. Keep in mind how unpopular W was in 08 and that we were still in the panic phase of the great recession. It would probably pay off in the end considering how many women despise Trump, but you should not view this as free money.
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Oct 17, 2016 21:55
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Elephanthead posted:I think credit card deposits take 30 days to clear so if you are planning to float the grace you might get nailed with interest. My wife wants me to put 10k on Hillary. I put it all on McMuffin taking Utah. They go through instantly for me but I've had an account open for a while now. I think it's withdrawing that takes time.
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Oct 17, 2016 22:13
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Yeah the only 'free money' that existed on this site was arbitrating the large multi-option markets like the Republican primaries before they introduced linking. That's long gone now. There's still arbitrage opportunities but the tiny margins, profit cut, and market caps make them almost worthless. Months ago I would have said that squatting a market and buying up shares once the event came to pass and before PI closed it was free money as well but that Missouri clusterfuck threw a wet blanket on that as well. Trickle in some throw away money to play penny stocks to get the hang of the site. DO NOT jump straight in with large amounts of money. You WILL lose it and will be VERY SAD. Also we'll laugh at you.
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Oct 17, 2016 22:18
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I should re-write the OP to be more clear about a bunch of things, huh?
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Oct 17, 2016 22:18
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The credit card interest is insignificant. The bigger deal is it represents leverage. Like anything that is levered if you win your wins will be magnified. But your losses too. And you will be left with the debt even if you no longer have the money. Admittedly it will be tempting if Hillary winning can still be bought for 80 cents the day of the election and it is being propped up by Trump rally goers living in a bubble
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Oct 17, 2016 22:19
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Ditocoaf posted:Unless there are massive recounts and uncertainty, PI will probably pay out those shares (for a full dollar each) within a day or three of the election. If you're impatient, you can usually sell your share for 99c (to let a loser get 1c out of their failed bet, or let someone else wait out that 99c turning into 100c). IMPORTANT: We're not sure about this. Some of the election markets may not close until the Electoral College votes  in December and makes it "official", even if the election was a blowout. That means if you jump in a market at 98 cents on election night hoping to make free pennies you may have to wait an entire month to get your winnings. It also means that a lot of people who weren't expecting this may get impatient and cash out early, pushing the price down to like 95 even if the outcome is 100% certain. So basically, if you want to withdraw all your money on November 9th without losing too many pennies, you might want to set your sells at 99 or 98 right now.It would be great to get more clarification on this from PI, so I sent them an email.
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Oct 17, 2016 23:03
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Yeah, it's a "risk" in that there's still 3 weeks left and anything can happen. The Russians, wikileaks, O'Keefe, and GOP oppo have all been laughable thus far but all it takes is one good one to hit. Realistically, I'd say Thursday morning you should know if there are any major changes to be seen. If Trump can't make anything happen in the 3rd debate, you can take a  to his options.
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Oct 17, 2016 23:03
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FourLeaf posted:IMPORTANT: We're not sure about this. Some of the election markets may not close until the Electoral College votes it also means that if they go belly up you will be the last people left holding the bag so don't be dumb enough to do this
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Oct 17, 2016 23:06
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Adar posted:it also means that if they go belly up you will be the last people left holding the bag so don't be dumb enough to do this Yeah I don't trust PI to not just vanish overnight with all of our money.
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Oct 17, 2016 23:36
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Necc0 posted:Trickle in some throw away money to play penny stocks to get the hang of the site. DO NOT jump straight in with large amounts of money. You WILL lose it and will be VERY SAD. Also we'll laugh at you. Unless you go max contract on Hillary Pres 
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Oct 18, 2016 01:08
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Necc0 posted:Missouri clusterfuck I was gone for about 6 months. What happened?
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Oct 18, 2016 01:27
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I was gone for about 6 months. What happened? The winner wasn’t officially called, to PI’s satisfaction, some long period of time. I forget the specifics. I didn’t have money in that market.
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Oct 18, 2016 01:30
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Platystemon posted:The winner wasn’t officially called, to PI’s satisfaction, some long period of time. They can be weird like that. I remember how the Nevada market required the Secretary of State certify the results and either that person didn't exist or that wasn't their role
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Oct 18, 2016 01:41
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I was gone for about 6 months. What happened? The Missouri dept. of state declared Hillary the winner by a narrow margin with 100% of the vote tallied. I including many others rushed in to grab the pennies knowing that PredictIt would close the market by the next morning at the latest. With how many markets were regularly closing every few days these pennies added up after a while. A few hours later the dept. of state goes 'lol woopsy it's actually not all tallied we have to wait for abroad votes as well. Market goes nuts with uncertainty and us penny-grabbers are left holding the bag like a bunch of dipshits. Don't remember if the Bernie campaign sued or just pressed the election board but they then came out a few days later saying that they were going to give it a month for any abroad votes post-marked either on or before election day and then tallying said votes would take an additional two weeks / month on top of that. So we had to sit there with hundreds of dollars locked up for a couple of bucks. Absolutely wasn't worth it and I lost my appetite for penny-nabbing after that.
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Oct 18, 2016 01:47
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Hello pals. You know a good bet? One that's sure to help a great cause and spite this poo poo out of Trump! Donate to RAINN because Trump is a piece of poo poo 
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Oct 18, 2016 03:14
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Fitzy Fitz posted:Yeah I don't trust PI to not just vanish overnight with all of our money. It is a Victoria University research project. I don't think the university can just abscond with our money in the same way that some sketchy privately-owned site could. Still, I'm putting in 99c sell orders just so I don't get locked into the market until the electoral college or whenever they decide to liquidate it.
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Oct 18, 2016 06:01
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Current holdings: Goal is to double my recent $500 re-buy into $1000 by November 8. On track so far.
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Oct 18, 2016 06:21
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Ditocoaf posted:I still don't get why Republican NO is consistently 3 cents cheaper than every equivalent-or-worse market. Is there some scenario I'm not seeing where Republican NO fails but Hillary YES and Woman Prez YES pay out? It seems like it would be the other way around, if anything. My theory is that people’s first reaction was to buy YES for their side they thought would win. Bullish Trumpeters are over‐represented in REP.PREZPRTY16, and as the market has hit its trader cap, it will remain that way. I’ll admit that this doesn’t fully explain why they don’t sell all their shares and buy into a one of the remaining open equivalent markets.
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Oct 18, 2016 07:07
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Just FYI, during the 2nd Presidential debate, the market on who would win the first CNN post-debate poll fluctuated wildly (they kept the market open for trading until 30 minutes after the debate). I'm hoping to make some money on Wednesday by taking advantage of that, but if you have any extra money laying around to place a buy order for Clinton at $.60 or so, it could be a quick turnaround. (equivalent market for 3rd debate here: https://www.predictit.org/Market/2600/Who-will-win-the-UNLV-post-debate-poll)
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Oct 18, 2016 10:02
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Baddog posted:I was able to play credit card deposit money in a significant amount immediately. I meant the withdrawal is delayed 30 days they let you buy right away for insane amounts.
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Oct 18, 2016 16:56
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Elephanthead posted:I meant the withdrawal is delayed 30 days they let you buy right away for insane amounts. Getting your cash back out is delayed you can buy all the HRC wins Texas bets you want immediately with your new citi bank sapphire card.
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Oct 18, 2016 16:58
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PredictIt rolled out an electoral map based on current prices, it's pretty cool
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Oct 18, 2016 21:32
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DMCrimson posted:PredictIt rolled out an electoral map based on current prices, it's pretty cool Link please. Oh, nevermind, they created a whole new tab for it on the left of the 'Markets' view (https://www.predictit.org/Home/Election2016).
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Oct 18, 2016 21:42
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Just came here to mention that as well. It's an interesting way of looking at EV for sure. Not a single state is trading at Trump >95c, while Hillary has 128 EV locked up at >95c right now and another 150 between 80c and 94c. Edit: 
BCRock has issued a correction as of 21:45 on Oct 18, 2016 |
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Oct 18, 2016 21:42
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DMCrimson posted:PredictIt rolled out an electoral map based on current prices, it's pretty cool not a goddamn speck of deep red bless this year
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Oct 18, 2016 21:43
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What do people think about "Will a UNLV debate moderator say “rigged"?" - No @ .50? I'm thinking about it since it's moderator specific, but maybe .50 is around the correct price.
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Oct 18, 2016 22:23
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null posted:What do people think about "Will a UNLV debate moderator say “rigged"?" - No @ .50? I'm thinking about it since it's moderator specific, but maybe .50 is around the correct price. I think 50/50 is about right for that one. I can easily see Chris Wallace saying, "You've repeatedly made claims that this election is rigged. Please explain." Sort of a softball that let's him keep touting his mainstream media is against me (except for you guys at Fox News, of course!) line and leaves it entirely up to Hillary to press him on how loving crazy he is.
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Oct 18, 2016 22:48
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I bet on Trump saying crooked Hillary.
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Oct 19, 2016 00:11
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BCRock posted:I think 50/50 is about right for that one. I can easily see Chris Wallace saying, "You've repeatedly made claims that this election is rigged. Please explain." Yeah I agree with that, I don't think I'll bet on this one unless it moves. With these debate markets being so subjective it seems like it's easy to convince yourself either way sometimes. null has issued a correction as of 00:42 on Oct 19, 2016 |
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Oct 19, 2016 00:32
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I put a little bit of money on the "will anybody say 'Paul Ryan' during the debate" market for YES just because it allows anybody to say it. It seems like this would likely be a good attack strategy for Clinton to bring up, even if the moderator doesn't, and the Ryan/Trump feud seems to be continuing through this week. But it is trading at less than $.50, so I'm fully prepared to lose that market.
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Oct 19, 2016 01:17
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I'm reloading on moderator no's on this debate since its just the one moderator and only a few question areas. Not quite as much money as before tho....
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Oct 19, 2016 01:50
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I just saw an ad for predictit on facebook
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Oct 19, 2016 03:10
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I saw a banner ad on here. It's catching on! Just in time to become irrelevant! Do they have any plans for after the election? Is it just going to be polls and foreign elections? They should get into entertainment. Markets on how much films are going to take in for opening weekend. What movies and shows win awards, etc.
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Oct 19, 2016 04:40
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It means they're either doing really well or really terribly
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Oct 19, 2016 04:42
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The more inexperienced traders, the better, IMO.
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Oct 19, 2016 04:44
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