Ardennes posted:

No, I would say the IMF could do something positive but in reality they trap countries into failure. If the IMF disappeared you probably would see far more bilateral lending from individual countries.

Play posted:

We're getting a bit outside the scope of the thread, but why in the world would the IMF "trap countries into failure" when it's the success of those countries that provide a return on their investment? I think they can be shortsighted at times and corrupt and money-grubbing at other times but in the best case scenario they are aiming for economic success and development within a country. I agree that too often that vision is corrupted by a desire for fast returns and privatization.

I don't really see other countries stepping up to the plate, unless their goal is also to extract concessions and sovereignty. And the fact that few countries care to offer loans on better terms than the IMF (in these particular cases) suggest that maybe they couldn't fill the gap.

In any case it was fun to talk about and made me think more but I'll stop now because this thread isn't about the IMF

Ghost of Mussolini posted:

The fact that the Saudi's have proven to ha e very itchy trigger fingers is not, in my opinion, the main problem with supporting the Saudi state.

It lies more in the fact that it is an absolute authoritarian state that has shown absolutely no care for anything other than carrying out their reactionary policies. "The West" shouldn't support Saud because the Saudi state is good for little else other than providing a good contrast of what western conceptions of human rights, equality before the law, and democratic rule are supposed to stand for.

I honestly don't understand how anyone can support Saudi intervention in Yemen and Western support for it.

Herstory Begins Now posted:

It's hosed up, but the real answer to why the US has supported this is that SA has been the biggest purchaser of American arms in the world, since 2011.

Imapanda posted:

Rebels with ATGMs still pretty good at destroying soviet relics. This coming a day after the same guy blew up that group of SAA infantry in that video posted a couple days ago.

maybe a little ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYiPkmN-QQY

I think they forgot to leave their hollywood pyrotechnics at home.

euphronius posted:

I have not been paying attention much sorry but is the Mosul offensive the first time American and Iranian forces have worked in concert like this.

Volkerball posted:

The US has been indirectly aiding Iranian backed Shia militias for pretty much the duration of the fighting in Iraq since Mosul fell.

TheDeadlyShoe posted:

i um, feel like i fell behind. what master? is it Gulen? It's Gulen, isn't it.

TheDeadlyShoe posted:

i um, feel like i fell behind. what master? is it Gulen? It's Gulen, isn't it.

euphronius posted:

Was it part of he nuke truce or separate.

Probably all wrapped up together ?

euphronius posted:

I have not been paying attention much sorry but is the Mosul offensive the first time American and Iranian forces have worked in concert like this.

Atrocious Joe posted:

We worked together early on in Afghanistan too.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_uprising_in_Herat

VikingSkull posted:

Cat Mattress posted:

It's much older than 2011, and weapons aren't the main reason.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-05-30/the-untold-story-behind-saudi-arabia-s-41-year-u-s-debt-secret

quote:

Erdogan: We will lay siege on Manbij and Al-Bab

VikingSkull posted:

Erdogan is probably on the phone with Putin every step of the way. This is all stuff directed at the US.

Sinteres posted:

They're definitely talking, but at least some FSA groups have made it pretty clear that Aleppo's their next stop after Al Bab, so I have to imagine Russia would prefer for the Efrin buffer to remain in place if possible. The only way their interests could really coincide is if Turkey's planning to backstab the rebels and occupy northern Syria as the country is partitioned so Assad has a more manageable rump state to manage, but that seems messy at best.

Ardennes posted:

I think Erdogan's desire at this point is more to drive a wedge between the two SDF forces then completely annihilate them. Also, I don't know how well Turkish backed FSA units are going to do without air support if they did make it to Aleppo, at a certain point those units can't fight both ISIS and the SDF as well as Pro-Assad forces unless the Turkish military actually goes all in.

This probably has been spurred by the fact that SDF forces are pushing pretty strongly towards Al-Bab as well.

Sinteres posted:

Even just opening a corridor to Aleppo allows weapons to start entering the city in a big way again though, including anti-air weaponry if Turkey feels like it. If I'm Putin, I'm definitely hoping the Kurds get to Al-Bab before the FSA.

quote:

Two months after driving Islamic State from this Syrian border town, the young rebel fighters patrolling its streets nurse an ambition beyond the aims of their Turkish backers: to break the siege of Aleppo.

These Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighters, some in their teens, others hardened by years of war, swept into Jarablus almost unopposed in August.

They were part of Turkey's "Operation Euphrates Shield" meant to clear the jihadists from the border and prevent Kurdish militias gaining ground in their wake.

But for them, that operation was a means to an end, just the start of a journey that would ultimately see them battle their main enemy - the Russian-backed forces of President Bashar al-Assad - and come to the aid of hundreds of thousands of civilians encircled in opposition-held eastern Aleppo.

Such ambitions leave Turkey in a difficult position as it restores relations with Moscow.

Long one of Assad's fiercest opponents, Ankara's main priority appears to have shifted towards preventing Kurdish territorial gains and away from pushing for his immediate departure, putting it at odds with the fighters it supports.

"Our most important target is to break the siege of Aleppo. There, our FSA brothers are trapped," Ismail, a commander from the Sultan Murad group, an FSA faction, told Reuters in Jarablus, wearing camouflage fatigues and Adidas sneakers.

"This is our own idea, but in the coming days we will discuss this with our Turkish brothers," he said.

The answer may not be what he wants to hear.

CO-FIGHTERS

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Russia's Vladimir Putin agreed at a meeting in Istanbul last week to try to seek common ground on Syria, despite backing opposing sides, although there has been little sign of concrete progress.

Erdogan said he had spoken with Putin on Tuesday and agreed to try to help meet a Russian demand that fighters from the group formally known as the Nusra Front, now called Jabhat Fatah al Sham, be removed from Aleppo.

"The necessary orders were given to our friends, and they will do what is needed," Erdogan said in a speech in Ankara.

Such willingness to do Moscow's bidding is unlikely to go down well with the FSA fighters Turkey is backing.

"Russia says they are bombing terrorists, but be it al Nusra or Ahrar al Sham, these are people who have fought with us to save our land," Sighli Sighli, another commander from the Sultan Murad brigade, told Reuters in Jarablus.

He said he was grateful for the backing of the Turkish military, and that the FSA's recent advances could not have been achieved without it, but that Aleppo was the strategic goal.

"It's not possible for us to accept what Russia or Iran or the PYD (Kurdish militia) wants to do with our country. This land belongs to Syrians, not Russians or Iranians," he said.

HARDER FIGHT AHEAD

Some of the civilians in Jarablus, where shops have gradually reopened selling fruit and cloth as rebel fighters patrol the streets on foot and in pick-up trucks, are also suspicious of Ankara's warming ties with Moscow.

"My family is starving in Aleppo. Thousands are starving... Erdogan has left our people there to die, he has abandoned us," said one Turkmen resident who gave his name only as Yahya, and who said his wife and five children were in Aleppo.

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"He sold Aleppo off to the Russians and Iranians. They made a deal and they no longer care about Aleppo," he said, standing outside a grocery store in the main square.

Rebel fighters who have benefited from Turkish firepower in recent weeks are less skeptical, convinced that they will go on to battle Assad in Aleppo once Turkey's ambition of flushing Islamic State from its border is achieved.

"We have put aside our desire to fight Assad just for now. We haven’t abandoned it ... it's not like we've dropped our target," Bessam Muhammed, a 40-year-old rebel fighter, told Reuters in the garden of a Turkish-run field hospital.

"We haven’t come all the way and fought this war to seize Jarablus and then stay here," he said.

Operation Euphrates Shield has made good progress. Backed by Turkish tanks and warplanes, the rebels captured the village of Dabiq, southwest of Jarablus, from Islamic State on Sunday, a stronghold where the jihadist group had promised a final, apocalyptic battle with the West.

Turkey's military has said border security has now been largely achieved. But as the offensive moves towards al-Bab, 35 km (22 miles) northeast of Aleppo, the battle may get harder.

"The fight here for Jarablus was easy, but the fight for al-Bab will be much harder. Here there wasn't much resistance. They fled the town and we moved in," said Mahmut, 26, an FSA fighter wearing a Turkish police helmet.

"We don’t want to stop here or in al Bab. Next is Aleppo."

(Writing by Nick Tattersall; editing by Philippa Fletcher)

Throatwarbler posted:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-jarablus-idUSKCN12J2CW


Erdogan has hugged it out with Putin and is going to tell Nusra to leave Aleppo.

Runaktla posted:

"...once Turkey's ambition of flushing Islamic State from its border is achieved."

Yes Turkey really, really cared about this.

Descar posted:

but that's why they crossed to secure the border?

Herstory Begins Now posted:

I'd say their role in keeping the price of oil stable matters far more to the US than holding a lot of treasury bonds if we're talking long-term, though the two are connected. Stable oil prices (or at least a reliable bottom floor) means stable treasury bonds. My main point is that SA has undergone a major shift in policy in the last decade that is leading it towards some kind of major confrontation, which based on their rhetoric seems most likely aimed at Iran ultimately.

That SA military spending has quietly blown up in the last 5 years should be alarming af.

Ardennes posted:

That policy has not changed at all, actual IMF recommendations really have no change drastically since the 1990s. In Tunisia they are demanding the government cut back on public salaries, one of the few sources of public stability the country has. It has not backed away from privatization either. The IMF has always recommended cutting back food subsides in Egypt. The terms of the IMF "economic stability" means cutting back government spending until there is a surplus, thats it.

quote:

Mati: First, let me say that reforming the civil service is the number one priority listed by all the key stakeholders we talked to, and not surprisingly is at the top of the authorities’ list in their economic vision. All stakeholders recognize both weaknesses in the quality of public services and the unsustainability of the current wage bill path, which represent 65 percent of tax revenue, 14 percent of GDP, and 45 percent of total spending.

The reform—which aims at increasing public sector efficiencies and quality of services—will look at several aspects, including status for high-level civil servants, revision of the pay structure, better linking of pay with performance, and redeployments to the underserved interior regions. It will also help contain the wage bill by reducing it to 12 percent of GDP by 2020, thereby creating the necessary fiscal space to double public investment.

Civil service reform is a necessary step to create growth but can only be successful if the reform achieves broad-based consensus. This in turn requires reforms in other important areas. For example, civil service reform should go hand in hand with tax reform that improves fairness by widening the base and increasing the purchasing power for the lowest income taxpayer (e.g., by raising the income tax threshold). As recognized by the authorities, reform implementation is essential as only the private sector can create sustainable jobs— not the public sector.

Throatwarbler posted:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-jarablus-idUSKCN12J2CW


Erdogan has hugged it out with Putin and is going to tell Nusra to leave Aleppo.