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R-No is really really bad D-No is the very safe bet, Sandwich-Yes is probably the best one
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Oct 21, 2016 00:22
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| # ? May 30, 2024 17:58 |
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You could always max R-NO, D-NO (tho I know there's some weird stuff with risk there probably) in Utah, 3rd Party wins state YES and Sandwich-Yes - so many ways to bet on the Sandwich winning...
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Oct 21, 2016 00:25
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Trump's going to win Utah still. R-YES is a great value right now due to the temporary McMuffin hype. Disclaimer: This is just my opinion and is probably wrong, but it's where my money is in the UT market.
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Oct 21, 2016 00:59
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Why? He's not spending any money or time there and Breakfast is on the upswing and spending all of his money and time (and GOP strategist expertise) there. I feel the post-debate polls will validate me
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Oct 21, 2016 01:51
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$73824345.27 raised by Hillary, wooooo!
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Oct 21, 2016 03:10
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This market's going to go crazy for a while: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/4037/Will-Clinton%E2%80%99s-favorable-rate-be-at-least-430-on-October-21#data She's at exactly 42.9 on RCP right now with last week's Gallup at 41. This weeks' Gallup is at 42 (http://www.gallup.com/poll/189299/presidential-election-2016-key-indicators.aspx#pcf-image), which if it gets added will push the average to 43.0 and flip this to YES. Will RCP add the new Gallup? Will any other polls get added? Who knows! Disclaimer: Don't bet on polls. Edit: And the new Gallup just posted to RCP, flipping YES from ~40c to 97c. Woohoo! BCRock has issued a correction as of 19:51 on Oct 21, 2016 |
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Oct 21, 2016 18:22
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BCRock posted:
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Oct 21, 2016 20:42
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Poll share price swings will never not be funny. That hillary market has a history of pain.
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Oct 21, 2016 21:55
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BCRock posted:This market's going to go crazy for a while: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/4037/Will-Clinton%E2%80%99s-favorable-rate-be-at-least-430-on-October-21#data :jokerlightingpileofcashonfire.gif: Edit: Congrats though, lol.
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Oct 21, 2016 22:04
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not sure i see why utah R no is bad? trump's numbers aren't going up there whatsoever, neither are johnson's. hillary and mcmormon will siphon from them both. and given it's already a 3-way tie, i'm not seeing how trump comes out ahead. mcmormon has a lot of room to grow, hillary...maybe, the other two hell no. not touching D no at that price. just my take!
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Oct 22, 2016 02:46
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R-No isnt a bad bet. It's just not one I'd make right now at the current price. Trump is still ahead in UT in all of the recent major polls, just not by much. McMuffin's spike came out of nowhere. It wasn't some gradual trend upwards that's likely to continue (my opinion) and Trump's polling there has probably bottomed out (again, my opinion). Both of those dramatic shifts in polling coincided with the Trump tapes and accusations coming out and his awful debate performances. The debates are done and even if more poo poo comes out about Trump and women, he's probably lost all the support that's willing to dump him already and is at his floor. Add to that the historically observed fact that 3rd party candidates always poll higher than they actual perform and I maintain that Trump is still more likely than not to win UT, even though it'd be awesome and hilarious if he did end up losing it.
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Oct 22, 2016 03:56
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Abel Wingnut posted:not sure i see why utah R no is bad? trump's numbers aren't going up there whatsoever, neither are johnson's. hillary and mcmormon will siphon from them both. and given it's already a 3-way tie, i'm not seeing how trump comes out ahead. mcmormon has a lot of room to grow, hillary...maybe, the other two hell no. Utah Republicans might hold their nose and vote Trump because of the Supreme Court (or other issues), but only if there's a shot that he can actually win nationally, and without that, there's a whole lot less of an incentive to hold their nose and vote Trump at the top. I've heard rumblings that there's segments of the Mormon community that want to send a message to Republican leadership about just how unacceptable a lot of Trump's policies are there, and with Trump's national chances nose-diving, organizing to vote McMuffin as a protest makes a whole lot of sense. It's the chance to send a message that they can and will vote for someone else, but without the risk of being stuck with the "spoiler" label. Voters there can say that McMuffin is the moral choice, vote their conscience, and stick it to Republicans who support Trump all at the same time. On largely religious / social conservative grounds, Utah Republicans have shown much more willingness to go against Trump than their deep-red alignment would indicate. I think those politicians are responding to local opinion and are deeply afraid of being ousted in a primary challenge next cycle when their Republican opponent ties them to Trump's moral failings. Specific to Mormon voters, they have a long and reliable history of voting as a block, similar to organized labor a few decades back. If there's any single voting group / block / demographic that has the power to organize a third-party protest vote, it's the Mormons. Obviously, it's not a poll, but I think it shows just how little support there is for Trump there, certainly compared to other deep-red states.
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Oct 22, 2016 05:06
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Abel Wingnut posted:not sure i see why utah R no is bad? trump's numbers aren't going up there whatsoever, neither are johnson's. hillary and mcmormon will siphon from them both. and given it's already a 3-way tie, i'm not seeing how trump comes out ahead. mcmormon has a lot of room to grow, hillary...maybe, the other two hell no. Hillary has no room to grow in Utah. It's just conservatives switching to other conservatives right now.
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Oct 22, 2016 07:15
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Hillary doesn't have to grow, the conservative vote just has to be split enough and not show up enough for her to get it. Probably not going to happen but I don't think Hillary's growth there, or lack thereof, is a meaningful factor there.
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Oct 22, 2016 07:59
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The thing is that Clinton is only close when support is evenly split between Trump and McMullin. If either of them loses supporters to the other (and/or picks up Johnson’s), she loses bigly. e: In other words, it’s an unstable arrangement. Platystemon has issued a correction as of 08:13 on Oct 22, 2016 |
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Oct 22, 2016 08:05
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Platystemon posted:The thing is that Clinton is only close when support is evenly split between Trump and McMullin. That's why I bought GOP.NO instead of DEM.YES. I really think they're disgusted enough with Trump to vote McMuffin and enjoy being an asterisk in this, the most bizarre of elections.
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Oct 22, 2016 08:10
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It isn't just that there are x number of right-wing voters and they adjust on a slider of McMullin or Trump voters. It's a question of if x is diminishing by the week as voter enthusiasm on the right disappears. The split of the vote is just an additional factor.
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Oct 22, 2016 08:39
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Platystemon posted:The thing is that Clinton is only close when support is evenly split between Trump and McMullin. The shares on discussion were GOP Nos. Hillary doesn't have to win for that to pay. If you think a McMuffin win is on the way, GOP No is the more profitable bet (but yes, more likely to backfire than "Dem NO". Also, isn't there a "third party wins a state" market somewhere? That's now got to be essentially the McMillan Utah market.) Ditocoaf has issued a correction as of 08:48 on Oct 22, 2016 |
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Oct 22, 2016 08:45
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Fidel Castronaut posted:It isn't just that there are x number of right-wing voters and they adjust on a slider of McMullin or Trump voters. It's a question of if x is diminishing by the week as voter enthusiasm on the right disappears. The split of the vote is just an additional factor. That's why I'm in on GOP.NO in Utah. McMullin was in a statistical 3-way tie on one poll despite ~60% name rec. Once Mormon UT voters get wind of him as a legit candidate in the state, he'll only go up. McMullin is their alternative to staying home, and a way to scream "a pox on both your houses". They'll take that opportunity.
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Oct 22, 2016 09:35
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skaboomizzy posted:That's why I'm in on GOP.NO in Utah. McMullin was in a statistical 3-way tie on one poll despite ~60% name rec. Once Mormon UT voters get wind of him as a legit candidate in the state, he'll only go up. McMullin is their alternative to staying home, and a way to scream "a pox on both your houses". They'll take that opportunity. If you think McMullin is underpriced (probably!), bet on him. If you want to hedge, bet Dem.No. GOP.No is the worst of both worlds, because you only have one viable candidate in that bet but are paying for two.
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Oct 22, 2016 11:46
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Ditocoaf posted:The shares on discussion were GOP Nos. Hillary doesn't have to win for that to pay. There are both 'Will McMullin win Utah?' and 'Will a 3rd Party Candidate Win a State?' markets, yes. 3rd party is another way to bet on McMullin, with also the very, very slight coverage if Gary Johnson somehow manages to win New Mexico or something.
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Oct 22, 2016 14:38
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skaboomizzy posted:That's why I bought GOP.NO instead of DEM.YES. What's up GOP no buddy.
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Oct 22, 2016 18:06
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I'm buying up Dems in downticket races where prices are reasonable - Hassan in NH, Ross in NC, CCM in NV, etc. - basically 100% a bet on ground game: https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/789882819820392448 https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/789882862292000768 
thethreeman has issued a correction as of 19:22 on Oct 22, 2016 |
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Oct 22, 2016 19:20
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Here's some schadenfreude from reddit user "southernmaga" who bet too much on Trump for President, a walking reminder to not get emotionally tied and only bet what you can lose. https://www.reddit.com/r/predictit/comments/56f1rb/does_anyone_think_trumpgop_prices_will_go_up_again/ quote:Totally biased and just wrong. Betting all savings on Trump with these ridiculous odds from blind MSM followers quote:I don't think Virginia matters but he is going to win NM. I put almost $2600 on Trump winning it all. Already checking out cars to buy in November quote:Savings and every cent I can save between now and Nov 8 is betting on this quote:I put in 2,750 total some on my account and some on brother's account, just GOP and Trump. We went to the Roanoke rally and a friend showed me this site. Don't know what I was thinking but I just don't want to lose everything. quote:If selling now I lose about 800. That's like 3 months rent/bills. I know I put too much in. I'm hoping this is temporary. It was dumb but I can probably afford losing 400 if the price goes back up. quote:Waiting until Monday. Some people think the [second] debate will help even things out. quote:Seems like it's over. gently caress knows if I'll ever support the GOP again. Cash would have been better spent on beer. DMCrimson has issued a correction as of 01:08 on Oct 23, 2016 |
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Oct 23, 2016 00:18
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That is so stupid on so many levels.
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Oct 23, 2016 01:25
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maybe next time he should actually bet on the gop
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Oct 23, 2016 01:59
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jk, he should bet on anything other than his stupidity
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Oct 23, 2016 01:59
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I like the part where he measures his loss by rent/utilities but measures his intended winnings with new cars. His priorities are in the right places. Oh god, didn't even include his best quote: quote:I honestly think I have made a terrible mistake. DMCrimson has issued a correction as of 02:38 on Oct 23, 2016 |
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Oct 23, 2016 02:35
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I only bet to steal money from dumb Trump supporters the money is meaningless. Less money for them to buy guns and trump memberships. I am going to buy some sweet mortgage principle with my winnings though.
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Oct 23, 2016 13:26
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Elephanthead posted:I only bet to steal money from dumb Trump supporters the money is meaningless. Less money for them to buy guns and trump memberships. 
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Oct 23, 2016 17:53
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mods rename thread "the closet opens on election day when they are hidden in the voting booth.."
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Oct 23, 2016 19:29
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DMCrimson posted:I like the part where he measures his loss by rent/utilities but measures his intended winnings with new cars. His priorities are in the right places. PredictIt: I honestly think I have made a terrible mistake.
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Oct 24, 2016 12:03
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I never considered that. Now I am going to make another deposit with the hopes of taking some Trumpetes rent money, leaving them homeless for the winter, and since they won't sign up for Obamacare, having them die of some infection that $3 of antibiotics could cure.
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Oct 24, 2016 13:51
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Elephanthead posted:I never considered that. Now I am going to make another deposit with the hopes of taking some Trumpetes rent money, leaving them homeless for the winter, and since they won't sign up for Obamacare, having them die of some infection that $3 of antibiotics could cure. You're basically like Jesus Christ, himself: taking the sin of money onto himself to save others from turning from God. Good work, young man/woman. We should make our own Prosperity Gospel based on taking crazy people's money. It would be immoral for us to not match their bet, for example. The North Tower has issued a correction as of 14:46 on Oct 24, 2016 |
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Oct 24, 2016 14:44
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The North Tower posted:We should make our own Prosperity Gospel based on taking crazy people's money. It would be immoral for us to not match their bet, for example. My new goal in life is to find messages bragging about going long on Trump and watch their election day reactions: https://twitter.com/PaulTown_/status/784920730160992256 https://twitter.com/muster_buster/status/787685667719487488 https://twitter.com/creditspread23/status/787132635248066560 https://twitter.com/500pagesAday/status/784952751289696256 https://twitter.com/GeorgeMcIntyre_/status/775150912365002752 quote:If trump wins, I'll be super happy because he won and I also got 700 bucks to go along with it, if trump loses I'll be so mad I won't mind losing money. It's fool proof. quote:I have about $1500 on Trump. I stand to triple that if he wins. DMCrimson has issued a correction as of 18:53 on Oct 24, 2016 |
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Oct 24, 2016 18:30
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DMCrimson posted:My new goal in life is to find every message like this and watch their election day reactions: "I'm nearly 75% invested in...Trump" does kinda make me sad, BUT what if I sunk some of that money into vetted, high-return charity works? The kind that would make these people pissed off? Welp, off to sink some more money into what is a statistically probable, yet underpriced (at a 5% reduction) bet to do it, I guess. Edit: previously wrote 'monkey', but a monkey is a bad investment and has the high probability of ripping off your genitalia and ripping out your eyes. The North Tower has issued a correction as of 18:55 on Oct 24, 2016 |
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Oct 24, 2016 18:52
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Surprised that Hillary winning 370 electoral votes is so high right now. According to Predictit's own map, she'd have to win North Carolina AND all of Iowa, Arizona, Ohio AND Georgia for 370 votes. I don't see it.
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Oct 24, 2016 19:58
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New to this market, was very active on Intrade, Is it easy for US person to get money into the market?
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Oct 24, 2016 20:42
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5436 posted:New to this market, was very active on Intrade, Is it easy for US person to get money into the market? Yes, it takes about five minutes to get started.
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Oct 24, 2016 20:57
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Nirvikalpa posted:Surprised that Hillary winning 370 electoral votes is so high right now. Yeah. I've been heavily invested in Dem.370.NO for a long time and I'm still very confident that she'll end up just short of 370 when it's all said and done. I've got a couple of hedge bets to make the losses hurt less if she does pull off the massive landslide, and I figure it'll be worth losing a bit of money to watch that kind of annihilation happen to Trump.
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Oct 24, 2016 21:04
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