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rscott posted:538 doesn't poll anyone, it's an aggregator that weighs polls based on their accuracy in previous elections Okay, would you call it reliable? e- duh, I must have read that Silver tweet wrong. long day, forgive me.  still though is 538 a trustworthy source?I mean as much as what a 'metacritic-politic' could be. Complaint Compilation fucked around with this message at 23:35 on Oct 26, 2016 |
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Oct 26, 2016 23:31
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PhilippAchtel posted:Don't buy bad beer. Spend twice as much and drink half as much. This works for scotch as well. Only it's drink half as much but spend four times as much.
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Oct 26, 2016 23:33
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Oh no, Trump has received the coveted Tim Allen endorsement. I don't think so Tim.
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Oct 26, 2016 23:33
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Complaint Compilation posted:Okay, would you call it reliable? I'd say so. Compared to other polling aggregators, 538's model bakes in more uncertainty, so it's much harder for a candidate to get an overwhelming lead. It certainly doesn't like, unskew polls in favor of one side or the other though. The numbers themselves are good, but some of their analyses have dipped into the realm of handwringing.
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Oct 26, 2016 23:34
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boner confessor posted:he got infinite money, outbid beyonce and jay-z for a ridiculous mansion in los angeles, and he sits in there like a turbonerd all alone complaining about women on twitter That Creeper money That reeeeal gently caress you cash
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Oct 26, 2016 23:35
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Complaint Compilation posted:Okay, would you call it reliable? Nate Silver's model is fine. Not necessarily the best but not objectively bad or anything, and gets way more hate from certain parts of the thread than is really warranted. Nate Silver's punditry is completely awful and you should ignore the gently caress out of it.
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Oct 26, 2016 23:35
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Complaint Compilation posted:I was under the impression that 538 was one of the more even-handed poll-ish operations. I guess I just don't know how to find which ones aren't poo poo. Suggestions? Meanwhile, the Trump supporter side is getting confused bigly by this: 
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Oct 26, 2016 23:37
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lozzle posted:Nate Silver's model is fine. Not necessarily the best but not objectively bad or anything, and gets way more hate from certain parts of the thread than is really warranted. You shouldn't take his punditry to heart as gospel but it's useful to see what the center left is thinking on a given day
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Oct 26, 2016 23:37
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Beer chat! I've always preferred Weißbiers and softer sours. But Dogfish Head was actually the one to turn me on to IPAs with their 90 Minute. I just wish they released their Black & Blue more than once every year or two. That poo poo is amazing. I don't care how much berry must they throw into it. On topic: I want to give a shout out to that post from 40 pages ago about the goon visiting his conservative family in West VA. That's some depressing poo poo, and I see it a lot in the people from my home town (southern Maryland). I see the same kind of poo poo coming out of my 18 yo nephew.
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Oct 26, 2016 23:40
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Nate's punditry is great when he's telling you what he sees in the historical and predictive data he's been staring at for the past eight years but out of that depth he's just some guy.
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Oct 26, 2016 23:40
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ImpAtom posted:https://twitter.com/notch/status/790887942294306816 Agrajag posted:Well... Ghostbusters 2016 is poo poo. https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/789669489910673408 538 had a take on it a while back. https://twitter.com/jaytopia2016/status/789670252959457280
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Oct 26, 2016 23:44
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Fox finally gets the poll they wanted: https://twitter.com/foxnewspoll/status/791399550359441408
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Oct 26, 2016 23:44
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So a poll with their guy still losing, on the same day as others with 6, 9, and 15 point margins, huh? Anything to keep people from being too demoralized to hit the polls, I guess.
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Oct 26, 2016 23:45
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BlueBlazer posted:Porters will unite the common man. I drink my bread. Just so you know, both Rainier and Olympia breweries closed. Both labels are owned by Pabst now. They're both brewed in California. Sorry to burst your bubble (but as a PNWer, you should have already known these facts  )edit: politics of beer! My grandpa worked at Olympia Brewery for 30 years and was a part of their union. While him and my grandma were mega-Catholic people, they always voted for Democrats because of their pro-union views.
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Oct 26, 2016 23:47
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PBR is garbage beer for garbage people. Trump would drink PBR if he did drink.
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Oct 26, 2016 23:46
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Night10194 posted:So a poll with their guy still losing, on the same day as others with 6, 9, and 15 point margins, huh? https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/791406348537921536
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Oct 26, 2016 23:47
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In my neighborhood I find little beer can pyramids of these, usually close to one or two empty 12 pack cartons.
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Oct 26, 2016 23:48
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The hell is knocking the polling all out of whack?
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Oct 26, 2016 23:51
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And before anyone starts arzying, the Clinton +1 polls were Rasmussen and IBD.
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Oct 26, 2016 23:51
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Hillary, it's time to unleash the secret weapon.
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Oct 26, 2016 23:52
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Bassetking posted:Yo, if it's beerchat time I am gonna second the hell out of La Fin Du Monde. Promoting some of the local stuff around me, Reingheist's Cougar (Blonde) and Reingheist's Truth(IPA) are both excellent, as are Warped Wing's Ermal(Blonde), and Gamma Bomb(IPA). Never posted before till now but this dude is correct. Bassetking posted:Reingheist has you covered here, as well. Couple of real solid ciders. Cincinnati / Dayton area has some killer breweries. Not to mention Jackie O's in Athens and Brew Kettle up around the Cleveland area. White Rajah is fantastic.
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Oct 26, 2016 23:52
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...omepage%2Fstory As we all know the Republican-controlled House is going call special committee after special committee during Clinton's Presidency. God to hope we take the Senate so the SCOTUS isn't deadlocked 4-4 for years.
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Oct 26, 2016 23:51
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OhFunny posted:https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...omepage%2Fstory They have absolutely nothing better to do. What do you expect them to do, govern?
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Oct 26, 2016 23:54
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Night10194 posted:The hell is knocking the polling all out of whack? If I had to I'd bet my house that the +1s are the LA Times and Rasmusen polls which aren't worth the pixels they're displayed on. Shimrra Jamaane fucked around with this message at 23:58 on Oct 26, 2016 |
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Oct 26, 2016 23:55
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:If I had to I'd bet my house I'd wager that the +1s are the LA Times and Rasmusen polls which aren't worth the pixels they're displayed on. Oh, I don't mean them. I mean the more credible polls being like +3-+14.
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Oct 26, 2016 23:56
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Night10194 posted:The hell is knocking the polling all out of whack? At a guess, uncertainty created by the high number of undecideds.
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Oct 26, 2016 23:56
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MN gotta represent. Summit has a drat good Oktoberfest, and their porter is outstanding. Surly is really good if you like a ton of hops in your beers. If you can find it Indeed brewery's Day Tripper is a great summer drink. CaptainBeefart posted:Cincinnati / Dayton area has some killer breweries. Not to mention Jackie O's in Athens and Brew Kettle up around the Cleveland area. White Rajah is fantastic. If your talking Cleveland Beer, Great Lakes' Edmund Fitzgerald is my No. 1 favorite beer. Went to a wedding in Duluth that had it on tap, best wedding of my life.
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Oct 26, 2016 23:56
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Night10194 posted:So a poll with their guy still losing, on the same day as others with 6, 9, and 15 point margins, huh? With Trump, even the most desperate of shills can only do so much without completely losing their grip on reality.
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Oct 26, 2016 23:56
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Looks like Trump already making good on his promise to build the wall: https://www.facebook.com/DonaldTrump/videos/10157963626870725/
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Oct 26, 2016 23:58
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Built 4 Cuban Linux posted:Hillary, it's time to unleash the secret weapon. Freeway? 
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Oct 26, 2016 23:57
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My Linux Rig posted:Nah he probably just used okcupid like every other fat developer ...Is there something wrong with okcupid other than the male clientele?
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Oct 26, 2016 23:57
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Night10194 posted:Oh, I don't mean them. I mean the more credible polls being like +3-+14. If all those polls have a margin of error of +/- 3 with one saying she's +1 and another saying she's +7 they could both technically be correct, just at the extremes of their margin of error. +1 to +14 swing though has to be differences of likely voter models each poll uses.
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Oct 26, 2016 23:59
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All you beer drinkers should just move to Oregon and drink Hair of the Dog/Burnside/Gigantic/Laurelwood all day. edit: And if Trump wins, move up to Vancouver and drink some great microbrews here while complaining that you can't afford to live here.
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Oct 26, 2016 23:59
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If Democrats win the Senate with a majority I could see Ginsberg retiring.
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Oct 27, 2016 00:01
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Polling in general seems to be much more volatile this year than it was in 2012. Everyone agrees that Clinton is winning, but no knows by how much. The post-mortems are going to be interesting.
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Oct 27, 2016 00:02
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OxySnake posted:MN gotta represent. My dad often forgets he doesn't care for the Edmund Fitzgerald so I get a free 5 pack every couple of months. Good poo poo.
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Oct 27, 2016 00:02
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Night10194 posted:Oh, I don't mean them. I mean the more credible polls being like +3-+14. Likely voter screening methodology, if I had to guess.
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Oct 27, 2016 00:02
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The Fox poll is still Hillary +5 in the head to head.
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Oct 27, 2016 00:04
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The only good beer is Sapporo period. They also have beer cans made out of loving magic that even Superman himself can't even crush. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IG30ps4EwmI Go get hosed other beers. Agrajag fucked around with this message at 00:08 on Oct 27, 2016 |
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Oct 27, 2016 00:06
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Bassetking posted:It's been like, a whole day since Trump tweeted something about doing cocaine off of underaged tigers. Why am I not surprised Trump hangs out with Ramzan Kadyrov.
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Oct 27, 2016 00:06
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