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rear end struggle posted:The ethnic cleansers we support are gonna ethic cleanse rear end struggle posted:The ethnic cleansers we support are gonna ethic cleanse  freedom and democracy
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Oct 28, 2016 03:11
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I've been out of the loop with following Mid Eastern news since it is pretty much perpetual misery... but was wondering if someone could clarify things for me with regards to Iran. I've seen several relevant news stories in the past day that have me worried. These would be: -Rouhani being pressured to show how the nuclear deal will benefit Iran, and we still haven't fully held up our end of the bargain to give them back access to banking that was formerly sanctioned. https://www.theguardian.com/world/iran-blog/2016/oct/27/wests-failure-to-reconnect-iran-to-global-banks-risks-breaching-nuclear-deal -John Podesta's think tank having a meeting including people like UAE's ambassador to the US in which they discussed how important it is to fully side with the gulf states and start loving with Iran because of their involvement in Syria and Yemen. -US military officials today affirming their belief/knowledge that Iran is aiding the Houthis, who have targeted our Navy a few time off the coast of Yemen. I really, really, really don't want us to fight with Iran at all. I wish we would fully ally with them over Saudi Arabia. Even just a falling out of the nuclear deal would be a major step backwards at this point. What is the outlook? I know a lot of you follow everything in that part of the world very closely, and was hoping to be reassured things will be ok.
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Oct 28, 2016 04:51
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On a scale of 1 to Clancy how possible is it for us to let Saudi Arabia go? I know they're subsidizing half of our murder-death-kill armaments industry, but otherwise, could we manage to ditch them in any kind of timely manner? Also, any pan-Middle East movements brewing? Basically, somebody give me some kind of glimmer of hope with a spec of a chance of happening.
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Oct 28, 2016 06:07
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Sinteres posted:My guess is that Hillary secretly hopes Aleppo falls before she takes office so it's not her problem and then they can cobble together a face-saving "no fly zone" in the areas Turkish and US backed rebels have already solidified a hold on. Russia doesn't give a poo poo about the Turkish border region, and has actively tried to get Assad to negotiate with the Kurds. Hasn't she tilted her hand to the effect of supporting the SDF over the Turkish-backed elements in Syria, though (via comments made during the debates)? One of my wilder hypotheses is that the reason Turkey picked now to intervene is because they're afraid her administration won't be as helpful to them.
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Oct 28, 2016 06:23
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I'm working on a series of posters detailing the forces that have been deployed during the war against Daesh. Let me know if you see any corrections I should make.   
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Oct 28, 2016 08:22
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There are four CAESARs from the land army on the ground in Iraq. http://forcesoperations.com/en/caesar-in-iraq/
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Oct 28, 2016 12:02
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Cat Mattress posted:There are four CAESARs from the land army on the ground in Iraq. I thought the French had more ground forces than I could find records of. Thank you.
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Oct 28, 2016 14:09
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Dusty Baker 2 posted:I'm working on a series of posters detailing the forces that have been deployed during the war against Daesh. Let me know if you see any corrections I should make. Also, all Super Etendards were withdrawn from service, De Gaulle is strictly Rafales (24 of them) now.
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Oct 28, 2016 15:25
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Gervasius posted:Also, all Super Etendards were withdrawn from service, De Gaulle is strictly Rafales (24 of them) now. This is historical deployments, not current. I'll update the Rafale count though, thank you. In other news, Fatah Haleb/Jaysh al-Fatah launched a huge offensive in southern Aleppo to break the siege. Already captured the 1070 apartment blocks again, pushing on the 3000 blocks now. Currently committed groups: Al-Jabhat al-Shamiya Jaysh al-Mujahideen Tajamu Fastaqim Kama Umirt Jabhat al-Asala wal Tanmiya Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zinki 16 Division Jaysih al-Tahrir 1st Brigade Sultan Murad Jaysh al-Izzeh Liw Ahrar al-Sunnah Free Idlib Army Jaysh al-Islam Jaysh al-Sunna Faylaq al-Sham Ahrar al-Sham Liwa al-Haqq Jabhat Fatah al-Sham Jund al-Aqsa (what's left of them at least) Turkistan islamic Party
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Oct 28, 2016 15:51
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Also, incredible nitpick, but Atlantiques are navy, not air force.
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Oct 28, 2016 16:19
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TildeATH posted:On a scale of 1 to Clancy how possible is it for us to let Saudi Arabia go? I know they're subsidizing half of our murder-death-kill armaments industry, but otherwise, could we manage to ditch them in any kind of timely manner? Solid Early Tom Clancy: fanciful, but not insane. Requires the US continue to normalize relations with Iran, trading an utterly loathsome theocratic monarchy for a just mostly loathsome theocracy as an ally in the region.
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Oct 28, 2016 16:28
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The biggest problems with trading Saudi Arabia for Iran are that Iran doesn't want to be our ally, and doesn't want to get along with Israel. Plus we'd be worried about the Saudis collecting their layaway nukes and/or starting their own crash nuclear program, plus (somehow) increasing their radicalization efforts elsewhere. Basically they have the potential to be a worse enemy than Iran, and the US is likely to continue to wager that having them as a very bad ally is useful as harm mitigation.
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Oct 28, 2016 16:33
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TildeATH posted:On a scale of 1 to Clancy how possible is it for us to let Saudi Arabia go? I know they're subsidizing half of our murder-death-kill armaments industry, but otherwise, could we manage to ditch them in any kind of timely manner? If we don't sell the saudis weapons, Russia will, and whatever moderating influence we have over them will be theirs. JeffersonClay fucked around with this message at 16:41 on Oct 28, 2016 |
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Oct 28, 2016 16:37
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Gervasius posted:Also, incredible nitpick, but Atlantiques are navy, not air force. That is not a nitpick that is an important point and I'm honestly ashamed of myself for not catching that.
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Oct 28, 2016 16:38
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I think US and SA are splitting. SA wants OPEC to cut production, but OPEC is asking how much SA will contribute to those cuts. SA wants that number to be close to zero, so OPEC will tell them that's unrealistic (Why does every other cartel member need to take a bigger haircut because you're bad with money??). edit: OPEC is meeting on the 30th to decide if they will cut production and divvy up, very important day for SA. US is increasing production with recent oil rig counts jumping up. A Saudi official just said publicly that they may be bankrupt in 3-4 years. He immediately backtracked saying ohhh did I say bankrupt?? I mean uhhh not bankrupt. So what do they do when oil production is like 4/5ths of their income and it's now losing them $98 billion a year? Buy war machines of course. Doom Sleigher fucked around with this message at 17:58 on Oct 28, 2016 |
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Oct 28, 2016 17:32
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Ze Pollack posted:Solid Early Tom Clancy: fanciful, but not insane. Requires the US continue to normalize relations with Iran, trading an utterly loathsome theocratic monarchy for a just mostly loathsome theocracy as an ally in the region. Hey, I consider Red Storm Rising early Clancy 
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Oct 28, 2016 17:50
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This seems odd given that there's a major rebel force attempting to break the siege right now. Russia was weirdly passive last time that happened too. https://twitter.com/miladvisor/status/792040277607346178
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Oct 28, 2016 17:52
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Dusty Baker 2 posted:This is historical deployments, not current. I'll update the Rafale count though, thank you. It is interesting in that the opposition isn't trying to plow through the artillery base again, but seems to be trying to push into central Aleppo. I wonder if it is a distraction or they forced into that direction pro-government forces are in better shape in the south than last time they know they can't break out through the same area. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 17:58 on Oct 28, 2016 |
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Oct 28, 2016 17:55
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Sinteres posted:This seems odd given that there's a major rebel force attempting to break the siege right now. Russia was weirdly passive last time that happened too. Sending a message to Assad? Or letting the Turks have an excuse to beat up on the Kurds?
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Oct 28, 2016 18:17
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Ardennes posted:It is interesting in that the opposition isn't trying to plow through the artillery base again, but seems to be trying to push into central Aleppo. I wonder if it is a distraction or they forced into that direction pro-government forces are in better shape in the south than last time they know they can't break out through the same area. The artillery base was reduced to ruins by the regime when they seized it and the rebels were rolled back when their defenses (Wall of Death) were cracked and elite troops flooded the area. It's also a relatively open piece of ground, which is part of why the rebels were able to inflict as much damage as they did, but also a part of why they may not want to charge into it due to air strikes and artillery. Consider that the rebels still hold the 1070 apartment complexes even after the rest of the offensive's gains were seized back, so it does make solid sense to attempt to seize the 1030 apartments. Although the 1070 apartments are concrete structures that are significantly sturdier and hold more utility as a defensive position than normal buildings that might be obliterated by powerful strikes and I don't know if 1030 apartments are built the same way. Presumably, going by their names. It's really their only move as it plays to their one strength, room to room urban combat, and mitigates the utility of airstrikes and artillery. This attack reeks of desperation and if it ends in failure that will be three offensives in a row that the rebels were thoroughly turned into corn cobs. It should always be suspect when gains are made that are matched with proof of very few casualties or prisoners. Regime garrison units typically flee as soon as the attack becomes apparent, which exposes parts of their line to collapse, but the regime prefers to use their manpower in counter attacks backed with overwhelming fire power to fight the rebels. We'll see how long the rebels can apply pressure and how they react to a counter attack. I believe that the Russians are only not bombing the besieged eastern part of Aleppo due to international pressure and their desire to split the opposition. Everyone outside the rebel pocket is fair game, especially those striking the west of the city. I'm not really sure why the Russians wouldn't bomb them, to be honest. Without air support the rebels are much more likely to gain critical terrain. It doesn't mesh with Putin's statement yesterday that pretty much went "Yep, we'll have to kill them all  " Random aside, but why does anyone think that the Turkish FSA is actually attempting to relieve the siege of Aleppo? How is it logical to fight not just through ISIS, but also the Kurds and then the defensive lines held by the SAA for years in order to finally put pressure on the siege when there is already an army attempting to crack the siege and has a wide axis to fight from? Like why fight through 3 armies, besiege two major cities, then maybe break the siege when you could just fight through one? One that is currently engaged? Maybe if this offensive happened a year ago it might make more sense. The siege is more likely to be over by the time an offensive like that, even if it succeeded, were to be finished. It's clearly Turkish fuckery against the Kurds.
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Oct 28, 2016 18:23
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Some footage from a drone flying over the area captured today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4-Sa6350fc And some from the ground. https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/792037337513492480 You know that area looks like it would have been a pretty nice place to live. Shame whats about to happen to it.
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Oct 28, 2016 18:38
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Brother Friendship posted:The artillery base was reduced to ruins by the regime when they seized it and the rebels were rolled back when their defenses (Wall of Death) were cracked and elite troops flooded the area. It's also a relatively open piece of ground, which is part of why the rebels were able to inflict as much damage as they did, but also a part of why they may not want to charge into it due to air strikes and artillery. Consider that the rebels still hold the 1070 apartment complexes even after the rest of the offensive's gains were seized back, so it does make solid sense to attempt to seize the 1030 apartments. Although the 1070 apartments are concrete structures that are significantly sturdier and hold more utility as a defensive position than normal buildings that might be obliterated by powerful strikes and I don't know if 1030 apartments are built the same way. Presumably, going by their names. It's really their only move as it plays to their one strength, room to room urban combat, and mitigates the utility of airstrikes and artillery. This attack reeks of desperation and if it ends in failure that will be three offensives in a row that the rebels were thoroughly turned into corn cobs. It should always be suspect when gains are made that are matched with proof of very few casualties or prisoners. Regime garrison units typically flee as soon as the attack becomes apparent, which exposes parts of their line to collapse, but the regime prefers to use their manpower in counter attacks backed with overwhelming fire power to fight the rebels. We'll see how long the rebels can apply pressure and how they react to a counter attack. Yeah, the 1070 apartments makes sense, it was already contested but really do achieve their objective the only real route is through the artillery base again, everywhere else is simply moving in the wrong direction unless they are hoping to take the entire city at once. We will have to see but the last offensive did cost the rebels quite dearly even after the regime hosed up quite a few times. As for the Turkish backed units, it doesn't make much sense especially since they are probably still weeks away from actively engaging the SAA if that was their mission. If anything the Kurds seem to be on the offensive in certain areas which means they are going to be bogged down even further. It only makes sense if Erdogan is just there to screw over the Kurds and his proxies on the ground haven't realized it yet.
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Oct 28, 2016 18:45
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Footage from Aleppo https://youtu.be/g5UjGxSvMtw - truck bombs https://youtu.be/ScMLFbeBgVo - Grad barrages (feat. selfie) https://youtu.be/GSnD6riYQjk - Grads targeting the airport at the SE edge of the city https://youtu.be/OMpzJuhE8a8 - advancing into al-Assad neighbourhood
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Oct 28, 2016 19:12
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TildeATH posted:Sending a message to Assad? Or letting the Turks have an excuse to beat up on the Kurds? Russian planes supposedly stopped Turkey from bombing the Kurds, so it seems specific to Aleppo.
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Oct 28, 2016 19:55
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selfie dude owns. shadow warrior 2 loading screen but irl
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Oct 28, 2016 19:58
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Ardennes posted:Yeah, the 1070 apartments makes sense, it was already contested but really do achieve their objective the only real route is through the artillery base again, everywhere else is simply moving in the wrong direction unless they are hoping to take the entire city at once. We will have to see but the last offensive did cost the rebels quite dearly even after the regime hosed up quite a few times. Perhaps their thinking is since taking the more open area around the collage and then move into more urban territory didnt pan out, they would try the reverse. Hit the tougher target while there still fresh and then hit the collage from the north. Not sure how much water it holds but its a theory.
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Oct 28, 2016 20:27
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Supposedly a bunch of Russian planes are on their way to Aleppo now, so I guess the Russian pause is just about over. I wonder if it had anything to do with the UN Human Rights Council vote.
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Oct 28, 2016 21:30
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Here's hoping the rebels succeed and break through, good luck to them! Here's hoping plenty of fascist animals eat it in the mean time.
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Oct 28, 2016 22:09
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Crazy low firing angle on those grads
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Oct 28, 2016 22:08
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Al-Saqr posted:Here's hoping the rebels succeed and break through, good luck to them! Here's hoping plenty of fascist animals eat it in the mean time. Agreed. I don't know what type of 46d cyber chess putin in playing but let's hope whatever it is gives the rebels time to get over castello.
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Oct 28, 2016 22:15
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So the SyAAF released some video from their aircraft of strikes they've conducted and it seems like a geolocation wet dream. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wh-OTXFmZ_U
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Oct 28, 2016 22:53
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Al-Saqr posted:Here's hoping plenty of fascist animals eat it in the mean time. If it's anything like last time the SAA will be driving unescorted vehicles into a parking full of dead APCs and TOW missile scorch marks.
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Oct 28, 2016 22:58
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How are things going in Algeria and Morocco these days?
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Oct 28, 2016 23:58
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some dude from weird twitter went and joined the dang ol' YPG https://twitter.com/PissPigGranddad 
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Oct 29, 2016 00:16
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Dusty Baker 2 posted:So the SyAAF released some video from their aircraft of strikes they've conducted and it seems like a geolocation wet dream. Found it, it's somewhere in who gives a poo poo, Syria.
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Oct 29, 2016 00:33
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Sinteres posted:The biggest problems with trading Saudi Arabia for Iran are that Iran doesn't want to be our ally, and doesn't want to get along with Israel. Plus we'd be worried about the Saudis collecting their layaway nukes and/or starting their own crash nuclear program, plus (somehow) increasing their radicalization efforts elsewhere. Basically they have the potential to be a worse enemy than Iran, and the US is likely to continue to wager that having them as a very bad ally is useful as harm mitigation. This is a good perspective and hard to argue against. I would think we could build a amicable relationship with Iran if we turned our backs on SA and Israel... but that would obviously be a huge deal with tons of implications. My issue is that if we keep backing SA and Israel as we have been, how can we expect things to get better in the Middle East. It really seems like everything over there is such an extreme mess that there are no remedies.
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Oct 29, 2016 00:41
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we shouldn't try to swap SA for Iran as an ally, but we can squeeze a hell of a lot more out of SA, Israel and Turkey than we have in the past because they have nowhere else to go really
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Oct 29, 2016 00:50
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:Found it, it's somewhere in who gives a poo poo, Syria. Don't cut yourself on that edge.
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Oct 29, 2016 01:03
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Aliquid posted:some dude from weird twitter went and joined the dang ol' YPG at least the war tourists of generations past wrote decent prose and poems afterwards instead of this poo poo
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Oct 29, 2016 01:06
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dick head dinosaur posted:at least the war tourists of generations past wrote decent prose and poems afterwards instead of this poo poo What kind of douche calls Hemingway a war tourist?
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Oct 29, 2016 01:17
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