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Potato Salad posted:I post on SA In the D&D USPOL thread to be specific...
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Oct 31, 2016 18:52
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Potato Salad posted:DJT stares across the table, scratching out black numbers on a paper before him with his sharpie. If polling trends continue as they've been for the last week he will be ahead by election day. Just so you know.
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Oct 31, 2016 18:52
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Revelation 2-13 posted:I can understand that if you're a fascist, or have fascist opinions, but don't know you're a fascist - you'd vote for the guy with the fascist policies. What I don't get is how people can vote for someone who is so clearly also an incompetent moron. Presumably these people care a great deal about the US. How can they legitimately vote for a clown who has no clue about what he is doing? Like, the 'I know more about ISIS than the generals' thing. I mean, it's such an obviously stupid thing to say, that I cannot comprehend how that alone is not enough for people say 'nahhhh, that guy is probably not a great idea for president.'. I guess it doesn't matter because Hillary might be corrupt and is Bill creeper (nevermind that those exact same things, just orders of magnitude worse, also apply for the cheeto). They care more about supporting the idea of America they've built up where they, as WASPs are the most persecuted men alive and those evil liberals are coming to steal what is their birthright as the true makers of the nation. They can ignore anything else in the service of that narrative, even a man as horrible as Trump. That's not even getting into the white supremacists adoring the chance to get a candidate that represents them so openly.
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Oct 31, 2016 18:53
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Revelation 2-13 posted:What I don't get is how people can vote for someone who is so clearly also an incompetent moron. Because LOCK HER UP is a thing people legitimately believe, not just at Trump rallies At this point I'm actually stressed out by the idea of going to work because I'm surrounded by people who willingly believe this and I made the mistake of letting slip that I voted Hillary
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Oct 31, 2016 18:53
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Ciaphas posted:Because LOCK HER UP is a thing people legitimately believe, not just at Trump rallies Jesus. Be careful the next few weeks.
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Oct 31, 2016 18:54
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Ciaphas posted:Because LOCK HER UP is a thing people legitimately believe, not just at Trump rallies Similar boat, sort of. If you ever wondered, they do laugh at you if you think Fox News is conservative and watch the MSM.
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Oct 31, 2016 18:54
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Ogmius815 posted:If polling trends continue as they've been for the last week he will be ahead by election day. Just so you know. The trend where, before Friday and Comey's release, undecideds and Johnson voters came home to Trump as expected to the tune of 2 points for Trump and support for Clinton remained the same, and the trend after Friday through today where Clinton's support has not backslid an inch while early votes in battlegrounds continue to push DJT out of NC and Nevada? Those trends?
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Oct 31, 2016 18:56
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Ogmius815 posted:If polling trends continue as they've been for the last week he will be ahead by election day. Just so you know. Post your map.
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Oct 31, 2016 18:57
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:I might have misread something, so my apologies but... what we don't know, since you know we only have Podesta's emails and not, you know, Bernie's too, is if it went to them too. It's why poo poo like this is bad. Wikileaks intentionally drops poo poo without context with a really specific reason. I agree, and this is seriously the only wikileaks thing that's bothered me so far. If Bernie's team got questions early too then I hope they come forward about it.
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Oct 31, 2016 18:57
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Ogmius815 posted:If polling trends continue as they've been for the last week he will be ahead by election day. Just so you know. If weather trends the last week continue it will be 90 degrees in Michigan on Christmas Day.
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Oct 31, 2016 18:57
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Ogmius815 posted:If polling trends continue as they've been for the last week he will be ahead by election day. Just so you know. If oil price trends continue gas will cost nothing one month from now.
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Oct 31, 2016 18:58
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skylined! posted:If weather trends the last week continue it will be 90 degrees in Michigan on Christmas Day. drat global warming.
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Oct 31, 2016 18:58
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Ogmius815 posted:If polling trends continue as they've been for the last week he will be ahead by election day. Just so you know. Unironic disco stu argument
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Oct 31, 2016 18:58
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Revelation 2-13 posted:I can understand that if you're a fascist, or have fascist opinions, but don't know you're a fascist - you'd vote for the guy with the fascist policies. What I don't get is how people can vote for someone who is so clearly also an incompetent moron. Presumably these people care a great deal about the US. How can they legitimately vote for a clown who has no clue about what he is doing? Like, the 'I know more about ISIS than the generals' thing. I mean, it's such an obviously stupid thing to say, that I cannot comprehend how that alone is not enough for people say 'nahhhh, that guy is probably not a great idea for president.'. I guess it doesn't matter because Hillary might be corrupt and is Bill creeper (nevermind that those exact same things, just orders of magnitude worse, also apply for the cheeto). this is why the republicans laser-focus on how 1000000% awful the other candidate is every election - it papers over the large cracks in their coalition. Trump may have his personal problems, but how bad could it be compared to History's Greatest Monster Jimmy Clinton-Gore?
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Oct 31, 2016 18:58
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Ciaphas posted:Because LOCK HER UP is a thing people legitimately believe, not just at Trump rallies Regale them with stories of voter fraud and CTR checks.
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Oct 31, 2016 18:59
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skylined! posted:If weather trends the last week continue it will be 90 degrees in Michigan on Christmas Day. This is disingenuous. We have good reason to think that the weather in Michigan will become colder over the next two months. What good reason do we have to think that Trump will not continue to gain support?
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Oct 31, 2016 18:59
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^^ the fact that HRC isn't seeing a backside and Trump hasn't lead once this entire race? Ogmius815 posted:If polling trends continue as they've been for the last week he will be ahead by election day. Just so you know. So Johnson is going to fall to negative 5 percent?
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Oct 31, 2016 18:59
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Ogmius815 posted:This is disingenuous. We have good reason to think that the weather in Michigan will become colder over the next two months. What good reason do we have to think that Trump will not continue to gain support? He has never led in the polls.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:00
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Ogmius815 posted:What good reason do we have to think that Trump will not continue to gain support? Facts
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Oct 31, 2016 19:01
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Phone posted:All of you are just jealous that Trump made a huge and tremendous deal. He's been honing his (R)president budget logic for an entire lifetime. Gain public goodwill from tax cuts and jingoist spending increases (the biggest, best product... ahead of schedule!), then scold the Democrats for not running a surplus or creating a utopia after they regain control and manage the cleanup process (And under budget, because the product still wasn't good enough for meeeee to pay the bill)
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Oct 31, 2016 19:01
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Ogmius815 posted:This is disingenuous. We have good reason to think that the weather in Michigan will become colder over the next two months. What good reason do we have to think that Trump will not continue to gain support? i'd say reality and cause/effect relationships also reminder to take your meds
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Oct 31, 2016 19:01
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Ogmius815 posted:This is disingenuous. We have good reason to think that the weather in Michigan will become colder over the next two months. What good reason do we have to think that Trump will not continue to gain support? You're right of course. We have good reason to believe that the weather in Michigan will become colder soon based on the history of temperature measurements and our understanding of weather patterns. To make the same prediction for polling would require us to have something like a history of polling data and an understanding of the political processHEY WAIT A SECOND
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Oct 31, 2016 19:01
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computer parts posted:He has never led in the polls. Why should we expect this to be replicated in the future?
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Oct 31, 2016 19:01
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CascadeBeta posted:^^ the fact that HRC isn't seeing a backside and Trump hasn't lead once this entire race? He's arzying, but in fairness we still haven't seen much polling that fully captures the fallout from the FBI stuff
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Oct 31, 2016 19:02
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Ciaphas posted:Because LOCK HER UP is a thing people legitimately believe, not just at Trump rallies Yeah. People want to feel as if both candidates are equally bad, because then they can easily dismiss any sort of critical thinking that comes to the election and feel as if they're part of this cool crew of anti-establishment. Bill Maher's latest new rules was about people dismissing both candidates because they're "equally bad" was that basically Americans actually use a lot of critical thinking towards watching a football game, but straight up dismiss it when it comes to thinking about elections.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:02
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lozzle posted:Post your map. Check the most recent 538 updates- depending on where you draw your trendlines from. If you think Hillary's chances of winning are in an accelerated decline, then the tangent trend from Oct 26-31 would indicate DT will pull ahead by Nov 8th. No idea if he'd have the map & EVs to pull it off, but the polling trends are less than encouraging.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:02
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Ogmius815 posted:Why should we expect this to be replicated in the future? every day i check to see if gravity still goes down instead of up before i leave the house. never can be too careful
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Oct 31, 2016 19:02
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Ogmius815 posted:This is disingenuous. So was your original post, Disco Stu.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:02
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Everybody Arzying about the emails would do well to remember that there's still eight days until election day. Unless Comey releases information that shows Clinton definitively released classified information in these emails or whatever, it's going to fade in importance as the media shifts into "OH poo poo, LAST WEEK OF THE ELECTION!" Also Trump is likely to get overconfident and say something stupid between now and then, and that will probably get some attention. The reason why this got so much attention was because it was a super-slow news week.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:03
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Ogmius815 posted:Why should we expect this to be replicated in the future? The same reason I expect you to make terrible posts in the future.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:03
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Ogmius815 posted:Why should we expect this to be replicated in the future? Recorded history, just like the weather.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:03
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Ogmius815 posted:Why should we expect this to be replicated in the future? Because it is more reasonable than assuming it wouldn't
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Oct 31, 2016 19:03
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Ogmius815 posted:Why should we expect this to be replicated in the future? Past performance is an indicator of future results. 
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Oct 31, 2016 19:03
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Ogmius815 posted:Why should we expect this to be replicated in the future? stones will never float
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Oct 31, 2016 19:03
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Admiral Ray posted:Regale them with stories of voter fraud and CTR checks. I've had so many ways to argue the point but my own nerves and social ineptitude get in the way without fail I'm just gonna have to try to be stoic and silent for a few weeks (ed) and seek out OTC anti-anxiety meds probably Ciaphas fucked around with this message at 19:05 on Oct 31, 2016 |
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Oct 31, 2016 19:03
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botany posted:You're right of course. We have good reason to believe that the weather in Michigan will become colder soon based on the history of temperature measurements and our understanding of weather patterns. To make the same prediction for polling would require us to have something like a history of polling data and an understanding of the political processHEY WAIT A SECOND The sample size of presidential elections that we have to study is really, really small. That's why the major projection people base their conclusions on what the polls are currently telling them, not on what they think will happen based on previous elections. We don't really know if Trump will continue to gain support, we just have to wait and see. We don't have much reason to think that he assuredly will just because he hasn't previously led.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:03
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Ogmius815 posted:Why should we expect this to be replicated in the future? There's really no evidence that Trump is going to ever take the lead. The history of this election suggests that he has a hard ceiling, and he's never once broken it.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:04
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Ogmius815 posted:Why should we expect this to be replicated in the future? If Comey's email things are enough to give Trump a lead in the polls then it is literally impossible for Hillary Clinton to win so no point in worrying about it.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:04
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USPOL Nov: Collective Therapy Session For Posters With Election Related Stress And Anxiety Disorders: The Doctor Is In!
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Oct 31, 2016 19:04
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boner confessor posted:USPOL Nov: Collective Therapy Session For Posters With Election Related Stress And Anxiety Disorders: The Doctor Is In! I thought you were a priest though.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:05
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