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With Bayh looking like he is done it seems like we are heading for an Obama 2012 margin for Hillary and GOP control of the Senate, so we still pretty hosed. Supreme Court stays 4-4, nothing gets done, then after four years of manufactured scandals and people on neither side of the aisle being happy with the state of things, Hillary gets replaced by the seemingly least offensive Republican establishment ticket imaginable - probably Rubio/Haley. Honestly, I'd rather deal with Trump now, than have four years of nothing and then get Trumpism wrapped up in more delicate language.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:05
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Ogmius815 posted:We don't really know if Trump will continue to gain support, we just have to wait and see. Yes we do quote:We don't have much reason to think that he assuredly will just because he hasn't previously led. Yes we do
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Oct 31, 2016 19:05
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Ciaphas posted:Because LOCK HER UP is a thing people legitimately believe, not just at Trump rallies Talmonis posted:Jesus. Be careful the next few weeks. This sucks, BTW. Not being able to talk about voting for Hillary makes it VERY EASY for some people to pull the 'no one I know voted for her!' garbage, when in fact a lot of the people sitting around them shifting nervously in their seats and looking at the ceiling in fact DID but they just don't want to shake the boat or open themselves up to ridicule or worse. I'd say that everyone should be drat proud of their vote but I don't work in a place where I'm risking anything by stating my political opinion and it's lovely that plenty of people do. Silent majority if you have to, I guess.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:06
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Ciaphas posted:I've had so many ways to argue the point but my own nerves and social ineptitude get in the way without fail Good luck. It's not super fun to go to a place where you feel trapped. You'll be fine and have the place to yourself next Tuesday as your co-workers will need a day to recuperate from the loss.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:06
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I need some help. Can anyone recommend some books or whatever if I wanted to deep dive into the history of: *The political History of the Civil Righta Movement *The AIDS crisis, in the US and abroad in countries with universal health care *LGBT Rights history, especially Marriage equality *A history of the southern strategy and Goldwater Republicans Basically anything that involves Identidy politics and the United States.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:06
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Ogmius815 posted:If polling trends continue as they've been for the last week he will be ahead by election day. Just so you know. 
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Oct 31, 2016 19:06
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pretty much all "increased trump support" right now is third party protest voters losing their nerve and rejoining the herd as election day looms
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Oct 31, 2016 19:06
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TyrantWD posted:With Bayh looking like he is done it seems like we are heading for an Obama 2012 margin for Hillary and GOP control of the Senate, so we still pretty hosed. Supreme Court stays 4-4, nothing gets done, then after four years of manufactured scandals and people on neither side of the aisle being happy with the state of things, Hillary gets replaced by the seemingly least offensive Republican establishment ticket imaginable - probably Rubio/Haley. Toxx on it.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:07
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TyrantWD posted:With Bayh looking like he is done it seems like we are heading for an Obama 2012 margin for Hillary and GOP control of the Senate, so we still pretty hosed. Supreme Court stays 4-4, nothing gets done, then after four years of manufactured scandals and people on neither side of the aisle being happy with the state of things, Hillary gets replaced by the seemingly least offensive Republican establishment ticket imaginable - probably Rubio/Haley. Yeah this is why I'm arzying. It's not just the presidency; without control of the Senate the nation is still hosed.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:07
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Ogmius815 posted:The sample size of presidential elections that we have to study is really, really small. That's why the major projection people base their conclusions on what the polls are currently telling them, not on what they think will happen based on previous elections. We don't really know if Trump will continue to gain support, we just have to wait and see. We don't have much reason to think that he assuredly will just because he hasn't previously led. No poll aggregators look at what the polls are telling them because that's the definition of a poll aggregator. I've also never mentioned previous elections. We have reason to believe Trump won't gain much more support because he cannot magically make more white male US citizens appear out of thin air. But of course you know all of this because you've polluted the thread with your lovely Chicken Little routine for a while now and everytime you do somebody tells you this, so maybe the next time you feel the need to regale us with your painting-by-numbers understanding of US politics, just breathe into a paper bag until the anxiousness subsides.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:07
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Majorian posted:Every single police union person I've ever seen has been the literal worst person. Some related New York City news. A schizo black woman was killed, the new police chief said mistakes were bad and they need to make sure better outcomes in the future. Then a police union said "wow you're already sucking the bleeding heart mayor's cock? Blue lives matter!Blue lives matter!Blue lives matter!Blue lives matter!Blue lives matter!Blue lives matter!"
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Oct 31, 2016 19:07
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Trump is not going to gain beyond what he had before the first debate, when Clinton's campaign was in the worst shape it's been in for the entire race. He might get close to reaching that, but he isn't going to exceed it, especially with just over one week to election day. There's no reason to believe that an extremely muddy story about emails is going to cause Trump to exceed his previous high-water mark. The worry is that Clinton will lose a significant amount of support, not that Trump will gain a significant amount, and so far, the polls aren't showing that happening. She might lose a point or two more in the polls by election day if this gets worse, but short of an actual pre-election day indictment, it's a really safe bet she's still going to win.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:07
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TyrantWD posted:Honestly, I'd rather deal with Trump now, than have four years of nothing and then get Trumpism wrapped up in more delicate language. How do you "deal" with Trump running the country into the ground while persecuting minorities? The problem with Trump isn't just his boorish manners, but mainly his insane policies.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:07
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Now is the time for Hillary camp to release their super secret Op research pieces that will surely destroy Donald
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Oct 31, 2016 19:08
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boner confessor posted:pretty much all "increased trump support" right now is third party protest voters losing their nerve and rejoining the herd as election day looms The latest email whatever is certainly reminding "moderate" Republicans of why they really hate the Clintons, in case they were planning to stay home.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:08
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Ogmius815 posted:Why should we expect this to be replicated in the future? Reversion to the mean. Individual events may cause spikes and fluctuations, but the overall equilibrium of the race (to which polls consistently gravitate) changes much more slowly. A come-from-behind victory might be plausible in a race where the candidates had traded leads previously. Much less so when one candidate has led all year.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:09
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Bayh is in a dead heat I thought not losing right?
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Oct 31, 2016 19:09
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Ogmius815 posted:The sample size of presidential elections that we have to study is really, really small. That's why the major projection people base their conclusions on what the polls are currently telling them, not on what they think will happen based on previous elections. We don't really know if Trump will continue to gain support, we just have to wait and see. We don't have much reason to think that he assuredly will just because he hasn't previously led. You're right. Trump is going to win. Now what the gently caress you gonna do?
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Oct 31, 2016 19:09
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BigRed0427 posted:*The AIDS crisis, in the US and abroad in countries with universal health care And the band played on by Randy Shilts. Two birds with one stone. Also my favorite non fiction work ever.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:10
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How are Johnson refugees breaking? I thought his support was overstated and that seems to be becoming the case. I wouldn't flip out considering she considerable lead in early voting in Nevada and NC, which together are enough to just knock Trump out.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:10
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Ogmius815 posted:Why should we expect this to be replicated in the future? Because humans possess a unique power called "pattern recognition".
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Oct 31, 2016 19:10
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Ogmius815 posted:This is disingenuous. So was your initial comment. That was the whole loving point.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:11
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Yeah this is why I'm arzying. It's not just the presidency; without control of the Senate the nation is still hosed. This is why the democrats need to reach out to old papa Cliggan and his bum knee. The more rural states run the Senate.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:11
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Crowsbeak posted:Bayh is in a dead heat I thought not losing right? Welcome to what it means to arzy
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Oct 31, 2016 19:11
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Hollismason posted:Now is the time for Hillary camp to release their super secret Op research pieces that will surely destroy Donald Yeah I'm bummed that was all BS. They would have released it when NC early voting started.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:11
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PhazonLink posted:Some related New York City news. A schizo black woman was killed, the new police chief said mistakes were bad and they need to make sure better outcomes in the future. Michael Greenberg posted:After Officer Ramos’s funeral, I asked a group of cops who had gathered in one of the neighborhood bars why they aimed their anger so exclusively at Mayor de Blasio. Didn’t the blacks and the protesters merit at least a portion of their contempt? No, they said, I didn’t understand, the protesters didn’t count. They were just “followers,” “rabble-rousers,” “anarchists,” “know-nothing kids looking to make a scene.” When I suggested that this surely wasn’t true of every one of the 30,000 demonstrators on December 13, one of the officers shot back, “It was de Blasio’s fault that all those people showed up. He told them it was okay to spit in our faces. They knew we had been given orders to let them run wild.” The NY Police vs The Mayor, from the 5 February 2015 issue of the New York Review of Books. It's a pretty ghastly account all the way through.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:11
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I expect Trump to get better in the polls as we near election day as a) people who've already voted are kind of out of those polls now and a lot of Dems voted already and b) partisan ties are powerful. I don't think he'll overcome Clinton as his ceiling of support has been a hard one this entire election cycle
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Oct 31, 2016 19:12
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This joke is funny because we know that it was foolish of Stu to make predictions based only on past information about disco record sales. He should have looked at how other genres of popular music have plateaued and later declined in popularity. But we don't have anything comparable to compare Trump's support to. We know that he hasn't led in polls this election cycle, but we don't know that he has some kind of "ceiling" of support (like Nate Silver famously and in retrospect foolishly supposed he did in the primary election). If he can get within a point of Clinton why can't he get ahead? It isn't enough to say that he hasn't before; the race is in a different place now. Ogmius815 fucked around with this message at 19:15 on Oct 31, 2016 |
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Oct 31, 2016 19:12
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Senate Polls: Monmouth Indiana Tie Emerson Florida Rubio +2 Ohio Portman +14 North Carolina Burr +4 Nevada Heck +4 Wisconsin Feingold +5 Politico / Morning Consult Pennsylvana Tie
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Oct 31, 2016 19:12
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TyrantWD posted:With Bayh looking like he is done it seems like we are heading for an Obama 2012 margin for Hillary and GOP control of the Senate, so we still pretty hosed. Supreme Court stays 4-4, nothing gets done, then after four years of manufactured scandals and people on neither side of the aisle being happy with the state of things, Hillary gets replaced by the seemingly least offensive Republican establishment ticket imaginable - probably Rubio/Haley. That was supposed to be their plan for this year. Turns out the GOP base really doesn't like the idea of an inoffensive establishment pick.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:12
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Crowsbeak posted:Bayh is in a dead heat I thought not losing right? Nate has him at 65% to win.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:13
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Ogmius815 posted:This joke is funny because we know that it was foolish of Stu to make predictions based only on past information about disco record sales. He should have looked at how other genre's of popular music have plateaued and later declined in popularity. But we don't have anything comparable to compare Trump's support to. We know that he hasn't led in polls this election cycle, but we don't know that he has some kind of "ceiling" of support (like Nate Silver famously and in retrospect foolishly supposed he did in the primary election). If he can get within a point of Clinton why can't he get ahead? It isn't enough to say that he hasn't before; the race is in a different place now. i'm glad that you are giving yourself ulcers because of your own ignorance and thus are hastening your death. you would probably feel better if you took a break from the election and sought medication to treat your anxiety, although i am not a doctor and cannot dispense medical advice
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Oct 31, 2016 19:13
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Ogmius815 posted:This joke is funny because we know that it was foolish of Stu to make predictions based only on past information about disco record sales. He should have looked at how other genre's of popular music have plateaued and later declined in popularity. But we don't have anything comparable to compare Trump's support to. We know that he hasn't led in polls this election cycle, but we don't know that he has some kind of "ceiling" of support (like Nate Silver famously and in retrospect foolishly supposed he did in the primary election). If he can get within a point of Clinton why can't he get ahead? It isn't enough to say that he hasn't before; the race is in a different place now. 
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Oct 31, 2016 19:13
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canepazzo posted:https://twitter.com/mateagold/status/793137316831326208 I'd put money on this being because said pollster isn't telling him what he wants to hear
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Oct 31, 2016 19:14
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PhazonLink posted:Some related New York City news. A schizo black woman was killed, the new police chief said mistakes were bad and they need to make sure better outcomes in the future. I'd be pretty incensed by this if it wasn't such a loving bummer.  Jesus Christ, what is wrong with the northeast?
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Oct 31, 2016 19:14
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Senate Polls: Glad Feingold's ahead at least. 
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Oct 31, 2016 19:15
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GalacticAcid posted:The NY Police vs The Mayor, from the 5 February 2015 issue of the New York Review of Books. It's a pretty ghastly account all the way through. So how much looking the other way (or hell, joining in) will the cops be doing when Trump loses badly, and his followers start attacking minority neighborhoods?
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Oct 31, 2016 19:15
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Supercar Gautier posted:Reversion to the mean. Individual events may cause spikes and fluctuations, but the overall equilibrium of the race (to which polls consistently gravitate) changes much more slowly. What baffles me is I never saw a polling bump for Clinton after Debate 3. she's near ceiling, I realize, but I thought the whole 'I may not accept the results' gaffe would have embarrassed Republicans and depressed his chances more. Boy was I hoping that would push the Dems over the top for a downticket Democratic sweep.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:16
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Ogmius815 posted:This joke is funny because we know that it was foolish of Stu to make predictions based only on past information about disco record sales. He should have looked at how other genre's of popular music have plateaued and later declined in popularity. But we don't have anything comparable to compare Trump's support to. We know that he hasn't led in polls this election cycle, but we don't know that he has some kind of "ceiling" of support (like Nate Silver famously and in retrospect foolishly supposed he did in the primary election). If he can get within a point of Clinton why can't he get ahead? It isn't enough to say that he hasn't before; the race is in a different place now. Let me be clear you are a stupid mother fucker You are a stupid paranoid ignorant mother fucker who literally doesn't understand how polling works and the fact you continue to voluntarily chose to panic over what is obvious to the rest of the world to be minor fluctuations is a sign that you objectively lack the intellectual rigor or emotional stamina to participate in this thread gently caress off forever
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Oct 31, 2016 19:16
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Ogmius815 posted:It isn't enough to say that he hasn't before; the race is in a different place now. Yeah, the race is in a different place now because millions of people have already voted. The potential swing based on scandals/revelations/etc will necessarily be smaller because a significant portion of votes are already locked in.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:16
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