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Ogmius815 posted:If polling trends continue as they've been for the last week he will be ahead by election day. Just so you know. Good thing that's not how polling trends work then huh
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Oct 31, 2016 19:16
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Majorian posted:Glad Feingold's ahead at least. Feingold is like, a lock right? He's well liked and his opponent is crazy. If 2010 hadn't been such a horrible wave year he'd never have lost.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:17
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Majorian posted:I'd be pretty incensed by this if it wasn't such a loving bummer.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:17
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Jesus Christ, what is wrong with the northeast?
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Ogmius815 posted:But we don't have anything comparable to compare Trump's support to. So you think Trump's demagogue style of politicking is a new thing, huh?
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Oct 31, 2016 19:17
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FactsAreUseless posted:Haha, yeah, this problem exclusive to the Northeast. That's the only place you get unions anymore.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:18
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Mel Mudkiper posted:Let me be clear One poll went from Clinton +9 to a virtual dead heat in less than a weak. Does that seem like a "minor fluctuation" to you? I'd challenge that characterization. That seems much more like a significant signal.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:18
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FactsAreUseless posted:Haha, yeah, this problem exclusive to the Northeast. It's not, I just...I dunno, tend to expect more out of them. And then you hear NY and Boston police union heads or whatever, and they're so much more overtly racist than any Southerner I've ever met.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:19
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Ogmius815 posted:One poll went from Clinton +9 to a virtual dead heat in less than a weak. Does that seem like a "minor fluctuation" to you? I'd challenge that characterization. That seems much more like a significant signal. One poll is not significant. Try again, idiot.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:19
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computer parts posted:That's the only place you get unions anymore. Pretty sure the cops in the south are just as bad even without their strong unions
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Oct 31, 2016 19:19
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BarbarianElephant posted:How do you "deal" with Trump running the country into the ground while persecuting minorities? The same we are going to have to deal with it when the GOP have someone other than Trump on the ticket in 2020. People suffer until they come to their senses and vote for the Democrats (who will still be a flawed, lessor of two-evils). Trump's policies may be insane, but the majority of the country wants them. If you have a more skilled politician delivering those policies, who doesn't have decades of egregiously racist and misogynistic behavior on their record, they would win in a landslide (against Hillary at least).
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Oct 31, 2016 19:19
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BigRed0427 posted:I need some help. Can anyone recommend some books or whatever if I wanted to deep dive into the history of: I don't have any suggestions other than And The Band Played On, and maybe Burack's Tough Love: Sexuality, Compassion, and the Christian Right, but that reminds me: Gaetan Dugas, aka Patient Zero of the AIDS epidemic and a villain in ATBPO, was without caveat exonerated as the source of HIV/AIDS in North America. quote:Mr. Dugas was once blamed for setting off the entire American AIDS epidemic, which traumatized the nation in the 1980s and has since killed more than 500,000 Americans. The New York Post even described him with the headline “The Man Who Gave Us AIDS.” Occasionally I'll talk to older LGBT people who lived through the 80s and early 90s, and they say it's impossible to overstate how traumatizing that time was. Young healthy people wasted away and their families didn't submit obituaries because they didn't want the shame of "after a long illness" and "survived by longtime companion," and Reagan's people literally laughed as they died. Reagan did a lot of evil things and pretending AIDS didn't matter because only the homosexuals got it is one of the worst 
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Oct 31, 2016 19:19
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Ogmius815 posted:One poll went from Clinton +9 to a virtual dead heat in less than a weak. Does that seem like a "minor fluctuation" to you? I'd challenge that characterization. That seems much more like a significant signal. I hate to be that guy, but post your map.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:20
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Ogmius815 posted:One poll went from Clinton +9 to a virtual dead heat in less than a weak. Does that seem like a "minor fluctuation" to you? I'd challenge that characterization. That seems much more like a significant signal. a significant signal that something is wrong with that poll
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Oct 31, 2016 19:20
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Ogmius815 posted:One poll went from Clinton +9 to a virtual dead heat in less than a weak. Does that seem like a "minor fluctuation" to you? yes. you do not understand how polls work. you are freaking out over something you do not understand, and this generates amusement when you post these turds in the thread
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Oct 31, 2016 19:21
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TyrantWD posted:Trump's policies may be insane, but the majority of the country wants them.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:21
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Ogmius815 posted:One poll went from Clinton +9 to a virtual dead heat in less than a weak. Does that seem like a "minor fluctuation" to you? I'd challenge that characterization. That seems much more like a significant signal. Individual polls aren't very useful or predictive. You have to look at them in the aggregate, where we don't yet see Clinton losing significant ground, even though Republicans are, as should be expected, filtering back to Trump after a couple weeks of him not publicly making a complete rear end of himself. That has happened before and does not mean he's going to exceed his previous high-water mark.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:21
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TyrantWD posted:
75% of white people support Trump, you heard it here.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:21
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Ogmius815 posted:One poll went from Clinton +9 to a virtual dead heat in less than a weak. Does that seem like a "minor fluctuation" to you? I'd challenge that characterization. That seems much more like a significant signal. Ogmius, Ogmius, think of it this way: shut up. People have told you all the things they can tell you about why it's not as bad as you think. At least arzy about the Senate.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:21
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Majorian posted:Glad Feingold's ahead at least. Yeah as long as its 51-50 we can do this. We can get the courts on our side and then Hillary will probably have to do at least six years of executive fiat. Not a preety way to govern, but when the other party has gerrymandered its way to house dominance its how it will have to be done.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:21
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Covok posted:I expect Trump to get better in the polls as we near election day as a) people who've already voted are kind of out of those polls now and a lot of Dems voted already and b) partisan ties are powerful. I don't think he'll overcome Clinton as his ceiling of support has been a hard one this entire election cycle they still get counted. They just filter them into "voted" and "will vote" in the crosstabs. Also: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/793124880921333769 https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/793130851970060288
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Oct 31, 2016 19:21
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Ogmius815 posted:One poll went from Clinton +9 to a virtual dead heat in less than a weak. Does that seem like a "minor fluctuation" to you? I'd challenge that characterization. That seems much more like a significant signal. Mel Mudkiper posted:You are a stupid paranoid ignorant mother fucker who literally doesn't understand how polling works
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Oct 31, 2016 19:21
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Ogmius815 posted:One poll went from Clinton +9 to a virtual dead heat in less than a weak. Does that seem like a "minor fluctuation" to you? I'd challenge that characterization. That seems much more like a significant signal. *ignores half-dozen polls that didn't change from last week to last two days*
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Oct 31, 2016 19:21
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Ogmius815 posted:One poll went from Clinton +9 to a virtual dead heat in less than a weak. Does that seem like a "minor fluctuation" to you? I'd challenge that characterization. That seems much more like a significant signal. Do you understand anything at all about statistical significance
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Oct 31, 2016 19:21
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TyrantWD posted:The same we are going to have to deal with it when the GOP have someone other than Trump on the ticket in 2020. People suffer until they come to their senses and vote for the Democrats (who will still be a flawed, lessor of two-evils). Trump's insanity is the only reason he's gotten this far. Skilled, groomed, polished politicians can't stump for those policies, because they know that they're toxic to the people who are really bankrolling the GOP.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:22
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TyrantWD posted:The same we are going to have to deal with it when the GOP have someone other than Trump on the ticket in 2020. People suffer until they come to their senses and vote for the Democrats (who will still be a flawed, lessor of two-evils). That is not true.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:22
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FactsAreUseless posted:Show me the statistics saying this. Facebook likes are the only poll that matter.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:22
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WampaLord posted:One poll is not significant. Try again, idiot. Okay. The polling average has gone from Clinton +7 on RCP on October 19, to Clinton +2.5 today. That seems like significant tightening to me. I'm not saying that Trump is going to win the election. I acknowledge that, as of this moment, it's more likely than not that he will lose. But I'm telling you that he could win. This thread doesn't believe that's true though, it thinks the election is over already and that is mistaken.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:22
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Square wheels totally work, you just have to get rid of the extreme angles on the sides.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:22
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Talmonis posted:So how much looking the other way (or hell, joining in) will the cops be doing when Trump loses badly, and his followers start attacking minority neighborhoods? In New York at least, I don't anticipate this happening and I do think the NYPD would act to restore order in such a situation.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:23
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How did Bayh's lead erode so badly?
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Oct 31, 2016 19:23
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Samuel Clemens posted:That was supposed to be their plan for this year. Turns out the GOP base really doesn't like the idea of an inoffensive establishment pick. After the shenanigans that happened this year, that even forced donors like the Kochs to the sidelines, you can be certain that the next RNC chairman is going to fiddle with the rules to ensure that the most "anti-establishment" Republican to choose from will be Rand Paul.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:23
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10s of millions of people will vote for Donald Trump this should bother you in a deeply queer way
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Oct 31, 2016 19:23
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TyrantWD posted:The same we are going to have to deal with it when the GOP have someone other than Trump on the ticket in 2020. People suffer until they come to their senses and vote for the Democrats (who will still be a flawed, lessor of two-evils). The USA has managed to survive Republicans before and will survive them again. Trump really is something "special" on the crazy-meter. Romney and McCain were *not* just "Trump with manners."
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Oct 31, 2016 19:23
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Hollismason posted:10s of millions of people will vote for Donald Trump this should bother you in a deeply queer way I figured out a long time ago that most people really don't research anything when they vote. Like I would not be surprised if 10 million people are voting for Trump because "oh I heard Hillary was bad but I never looked into it, and Trump's going against Hillary so I better vote for him".
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Oct 31, 2016 19:24
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computer parts posted:He has never led in the polls. SAYS WHO? SAYS WHO? 
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Oct 31, 2016 19:24
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Hollismason posted:10s of millions of people will vote for Donald Trump this should bother you in a deeply queer way This has been known since the primary, you should have dealt with it by now. Yes, a chunk of America is terrible, I'm constantly amazed that this is news to anyone.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:25
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Brony Car posted:How did Bayh's lead erode so badly? Some poo poo came out about him not really living in Indiana or something and the press made a big deal out of it.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:25
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Brony Car posted:How did Bayh's lead erode so badly? Bashing him for constantly being out of state, I think. Don't live in Indiana.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:25
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Ogmius815 posted:But I'm telling you that he could win. This thread doesn't believe that's true though, it thinks the election is over already and that is mistaken. shut up
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Oct 31, 2016 19:25
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Ogmius815 posted:Okay. The polling average has gone from Clinton +7 on RCP on October 19, to Clinton +2.5 today. That seems like significant tightening to me. And it could be 90 degrees in Michigan on Christmas. Because an undetected meteor could hit earth. And we lack Bruce Willis to drop a nuke into it. Because this is actually a bad timeline. Because you are in it holy poo poo shut up.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:25
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