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Ogmius815 posted:Okay. The polling average has gone from Clinton +7 on RCP on October 19, to Clinton +2.5 today. That seems like significant tightening to me. I don't think he can. The improvement in his polling has largely been driven by abandonment of Johnson. Big surprise- 'Independent Libertarians' are rallying around the Republicans. But all this is to say Hillary's polling in particular hasn't suffered quite as much- Trump's just improved. Even acknowledging this, he basically requires significant depression of Democratic turnout while converting the vast majority of remaining Johnson voters to his side. Even if the grand majority of Johnson voters goes his way, he will have at best a 1 point lead on Hillary in the popular vote. Even that doesn't give him the map he needs to win.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:26
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Brony Car posted:How did Bayh's lead erode so badly? Bayh is a terrible, terrible third-way Democrat who has lots of ties to Wall Street. I'd still rather have him win, if it helps the Dems take control of the Senate, but even so, he's awful.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:26
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Ogmius815 posted:Okay. The polling average has gone from Clinton +7 on RCP on October 19, to Clinton +2.5 today. That seems like significant tightening to me. polls of potential theoretical national popular vote outcomes are necessarily decoupled from the electoral college, which actually votes for the president again, it's staggering how uninformed you are about this process, and yet you're antagonizing yourself to the edge of panic anyway
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Oct 31, 2016 19:26
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So did Leon Trotsky 2012 clone himself or something?
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Oct 31, 2016 19:27
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The general public has the decision making ability of Two-Face from Batman, but instead of Lady Liberty the coin just says Racist on one side Not Racist on the other I hope this insight helps
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Oct 31, 2016 19:27
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Ogmius815 posted:Okay. The polling average has gone from Clinton +7 on RCP on October 19, to Clinton +2.5 today. That seems like significant tightening to me. the RCP average was down to C+.9 at one point. Yet somehow that trend didn't continue and it was back up to +7 later! Isn't that odd? Yes obviously he COULD win, but the chances are very slim and there are zillions of people working and donating to make sure it doesn't happen. Still! Even though this thread thinks HRC will win! Weird how that works
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Oct 31, 2016 19:28
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Adam Vegas posted:Do you understand anything at all about statistical significance
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Oct 31, 2016 19:28
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boner confessor posted:polls of potential theoretical national popular vote outcomes are necessarily decoupled from the electoral college, which actually votes for the president Yes obviously the electoral college exists. But movements in state polls are-get this-correlated with movement in national polls. If the national polls are tightening, it's very likely that the race has tightened in key battleground states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida (all of which are states Trump more or less must win to win the election, barring a surprise in a state like Colorado, Wisconsin, or Michigan). Major polling aggregators like 538 use national polls to fill in gaps in state polling to figure out where various races are. The national popular vote doesn't elect the president, but national polls do give us useful information about the race.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:29
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Brony Car posted:How did Bayh's lead erode so badly? There has been a glut of bad polls released recently, with one firm being run by Ted Cruz's old campaign manager that's just come on the scene. Most of the more accurate polls won't be released until later this week and we'll really know the events of Comey-gate.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:30
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Crowsbeak posted:So did Leon Trotsky 2012 clone himself or something? Hey man, I'm only Arzying about the Senate. I was just trolling the people Arzying about Clinton. Og seems to be serious.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:30
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Ogmius815 posted:Yes obviously the electoral college exists. But movements in state polls are-get this-correlated with movement in national polls. If the national polls are tightening, it's very likely that the race has tightened in key battleground states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida (all of which are states Trump more or less must win to win the election, barring a surprise in a state like Colorado, Wisconsin, or Michigan). Major polling aggregators like 538 use national polls to fill in gaps in state polling to figure out where various races are. The national popular vote doesn't elect the president, but national polls do give us useful information about the race. Trump is not going to win Pennsylvania, Colorado, Wisconsin, or Michigan.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:30
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Jesus Christ dude go loving outside instead of stressing yourself out over literally nothing. Or like, smoke weed, I don't know.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:31
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Ogmius815 posted:Yes obviously the electoral college exists. But movements in state polls are-get this-correlated with movement in national polls. If the national polls are tightening, it's very likely that the race has tightened in key battleground states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida (all of which are states Trump more or less must win to win the election, barring a surprise in a state like Colorado, Wisconsin, or Michigan). Major polling aggregators like 538 use national polls to fill in gaps in state polling to figure out where various races are. The national popular vote doesn't elect the president, but national polls do give us useful information about the race. your brain and your soul have no value to yourself or anyone else on earth
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Oct 31, 2016 19:31
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You know what, I like the phrase bed wetting better than I like Arzying. If only because people who come in here trying to make everyone else panic can then be called out for pissing in other people's beds.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:31
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I'm not going to say that there's no chance whatsoever Trump could win. There is definitely a part of me that is stressing out over this more than I should. But is there a point to freaking? Not really. I am going to vote, and then I am going to find other things to do for the rest of the day, perhaps nervously checking twitter a bit too often, until finally it ends and I can sleep.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:31
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Pakled posted:Trump is not going to win Pennsylvania, Colorado, Wisconsin, or Michigan. Well if that's true he has no chance of winning the election. But the evidence doesn't support the degree of certainty you're expressing.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:32
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Ogmius815 posted:Yes obviously the electoral college exists. But movements in state polls are-get this-correlated with movement in national polls. If the national polls are tightening, it's very likely that the race has tightened in key battleground states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida (all of which are states Trump more or less must win to win the election, barring a surprise in a state like Colorado, Wisconsin, or Michigan). Major polling aggregators like 538 use national polls to fill in gaps in state polling to figure out where various races are. The national popular vote doesn't elect the president, but national polls do give us useful information about the race. Post a map containing enough states flipping to ensure an electoral vote victory for trump. Then float to the center of Lake Michigan and wait for the loving Christmas meteor.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:32
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Majorian posted:Bayh is a terrible, terrible third-way Democrat who has lots of ties to Wall Street. I'd still rather have him win, if it helps the Dems take control of the Senate, but even so, he's awful. I'm okay with Bayh, mostly because I'm not sure you'd be able to get a better democrat elected in Indiana. As long as he doesn't gently caress over the caucus and helps give us the majority I'm pretty okay about it.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:32
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Ogmius815 posted:Yes obviously the electoral college exists. But movements in state polls are-get this-correlated with movement in national polls. If the national polls are tightening, it's very likely that the race has tightened in key battleground states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida (all of which are states Trump more or less must win to win the election, barring a surprise in a state like Colorado, Wisconsin, or Michigan). lmao you really do not understand how polls work. incredible you could just, you know, look at those state polls aside from ignoring all the polls which don't feed your insane need to feel bad about reality Maxwell Lord posted:But is there a point to freaking? Not really. I am going to vote, and then I am going to find other things to do for the rest of the day, perhaps nervously checking twitter a bit too often, until finally it ends and I can sleep. i think with a lot of these idiots it's a combination of a need to express inner anxiety and having no better outlet than an internet thread, combined with the turbonerd desire to always be correct and right in an internet argument and thus refusing to concede the point despite widespread mockery and people pointing out critical flaws and ignorant assumptions with the argument boner confessor fucked around with this message at 19:35 on Oct 31, 2016 |
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Oct 31, 2016 19:32
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+2 from my fiancee and I here in Colorado for Hillary, even though we both hated doing it. Also +2 for ColoradoCare. Cmon you stupid rural fuckers look at how loving stupid buying health insurance through marketplaces make the process
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Oct 31, 2016 19:32
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Super Librarian posted:Yeah, the race is in a different place now because millions of people have already voted. The potential swing based on scandals/revelations/etc will necessarily be smaller because a significant portion of votes are already locked in. As of last Friday, it was estimated that 12.6 million votes had already been entered. For perspective, 129 million votes were cast for the whole 2012 general election, so we're as much as 10% of the vote in already, let alone all the votes that were done over the weekend.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:33
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Ogmius815 posted:If the national polls are tightening, it's very likely that the race has tightened in key battleground states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida (all of which are states Trump more or less must win to win the election, barring a surprise in a state like Colorado, Wisconsin, or Michigan). They haven't tightened that much in Pennsylvania or NC, and as you point out, Trump must win those states, if he hopes to win. Post-Comey polls don't show much of a shift in Trump's favor in these states so far.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:34
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Ogmius815 posted:Well if that's true he has no chance of winning the election. But the evidence doesn't support the degree of certainty you're expressing. gently caress you
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Oct 31, 2016 19:34
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+1 for H in Florida. I wish we didn't have so many uncontested Republicans at the lower level though, and even where they were contested, their often independent opponents often seemed to be worse.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:34
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Seriously at this point whatever happens is out of our control. If Trump wins it's pretty much white America going all in on racism while everyone else stays home and ground games, fundraising, and campaigns were actually meaningless all along. If that's the case there's nothing anyone can really do about it so just enjoy the last week before the Trumpocalypse.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:34
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Ogmius815 posted:But I'm telling you that he could win. This thread doesn't believe that's true though, it thinks the election is over already and that is mistaken.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:35
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Ogmius815 posted:Well if that's true he has no chance of winning the election. But the evidence doesn't support the degree of certainty you're expressing. 
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Oct 31, 2016 19:35
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Mel Mudkiper posted:gently caress you Cripes, chill out man
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Oct 31, 2016 19:36
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Does CNN lean right or left?
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Oct 31, 2016 19:36
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Covok posted:Does CNN lean right or left? neither, cnn cravenly leans towards wherever the ratings indicate they would get more viewers historically they're a little left on politics sort of but with a huge bias towards sensationalism and lean harder right on true crime stories and the like
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Oct 31, 2016 19:36
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That story Eichenwald was teasing last night is out: Donald Trump's Companies Destroyed Emails in Defiance of Court Ordersquote:Over the course of decades, Donald Trump’s companies have systematically destroyed or hidden thousands of emails, digital records and paper documents demanded in official proceedings, often in defiance of court orders. These tactics—exposed by a Newsweek review of thousands of pages of court filings, judicial orders and affidavits from an array of court cases—have enraged judges, prosecutors, opposing lawyers and the many ordinary citizens entangled in litigation with Trump. In each instance, Trump and entities he controlled also erected numerous hurdles that made lawsuits drag on for years, forcing courtroom opponents to spend huge sums of money in legal fees as they struggled—sometimes in vain—to obtain records.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:36
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This does make me feel better, actually.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:36
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Ogmius815 posted:Yes obviously the electoral college exists. But movements in state polls are-get this-correlated with movement in national polls. If the national polls are tightening, it's very likely that the race has tightened in key battleground states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida (all of which are states Trump more or less must win to win the election, barring a surprise in a state like Colorado, Wisconsin, or Michigan). Major polling aggregators like 538 use national polls to fill in gaps in state polling to figure out where various races are. The national popular vote doesn't elect the president, but national polls do give us useful information about the race. Post your loving map or get out.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:36
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So following the news that Trump is stiffing his pollster to the tune of 3/4 of a million dollars, and following Romney's thing where he didn't really plan for any kind of concession in 2012, what do you suppose the projected outlay is for Trump's victory party, and do you suppose he's going to give a not-concession speech in front of a banner that says "President Trump".
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Oct 31, 2016 19:37
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Covok posted:Does CNN lean right or left? Their polling arm with ORC? They had a slight Democratic lean last cycle.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:37
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Bushiz posted:So following the news that Trump is stiffing his pollster to the tune of 3/4 of a million dollars, and following Romney's thing where he didn't really plan for any kind of concession in 2012, what do you suppose the projected outlay is for Trump's victory party, and do you suppose he's going to give a not-concession speech in front of a banner that says "President Trump". There is 0% chance Trump writes a concession speech. I would peg the chances that he concedes at all right around "very slim". He will claim to be the rightful winner for four years on TrumpTV and laugh all the way to the bank. But no one but the worst deplorables will believe him or follow him because no one likes to back a loser. That said, the fact Trump is stiffing his pollster probably indicates that he doesn't like the results he sees in his internals.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:39
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loving Donna Brazile.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:40
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GalacticAcid posted:Cripes, chill out man how many times are we gonna keep dealing with the same poo poo before we stop assuming good faith and just tell them to gently caress off
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Oct 31, 2016 19:40
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Ogmius815 posted:This does make me feel better, actually. Good, it should. Trump's not going to win NC or Colorado, unless the polls have been catastrophically wrong all this time. Mel Mudkiper posted:how many times are we gonna keep dealing with the same poo poo before we stop assuming good faith and just tell them to gently caress off I don't agree with you, and think you shouldn't flip out at people either. No one is saying you should assume good faith, but if you think someone is trolling, ignore them.
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Oct 31, 2016 19:40
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TyrantWD posted:With Bayh looking like he is done it seems like we are heading for an Obama 2012 margin for Hillary and GOP control of the Senate, so we still pretty hosed. Supreme Court stays 4-4, nothing gets done, then after four years of manufactured scandals and people on neither side of the aisle being happy with the state of things, Hillary gets replaced by the seemingly least offensive Republican establishment ticket imaginable - probably Rubio/Haley. They can't stonewall for 4 years. If it becomes too obvious, then Clinton will have plenty of cover to do a recess appointment to force the issue.
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