Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Locked thread
Zebulon
Aug 20, 2005

Oh god why does it burn?!

Maxwell Lord posted:

She's been under investigation for decades and never even indicted, so she's either not corrupt or she's so good at corruption that we should put her in charge just to benefit from her expertise.

This is the part that confuses me, honestly. She's either clean or so god damned good at hiding it that nothing has ever been found. Either way, what more could you ask for in a modern politician?

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



Tiny Brontosaurus posted:

I'm surprised I haven't heard much from the Cold War generations about all this Trump and Russia stuff. He's looking to be about as close to an actual Manchurian Candidate as possible in reality, and nobody seems outraged enough.
Because their real enemy is, was, and always will be domestic liberals, not the foreigner.

Yaws
Oct 23, 2013

This is kinda petty and childish but who are some ardent Trump supporters on Twitter I should follow on election night? I wanna see the meltdown.

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

Dr.Zeppelin posted:

liz mair is basically tearing her hair out right now that dems/media haven't found the holy grail of trump oppo that she claims is totally out there

To be fair, there probably is quite a bit out there that Clinton's team could find. Like, there's pretty much no way he hasn't, like, cannibalized a child in a Satanic ritual at some point or other. But they probably won't find out about it in time for the election, regrettably.

Tiny Brontosaurus
Aug 1, 2013

by Lowtax

So like is making death threats on public figures just not secret service visit-worthy anymore?

Tricky D
Apr 1, 2005

I love um!

Tiny Brontosaurus posted:

I'm surprised I haven't heard much from the Cold War generations about all this Trump and Russia stuff. He's looking to be about as close to an actual Manchurian Candidate as possible in reality, and nobody seems outraged enough.

"If it takes a Russian stooge to bring down KKKlinton, then so be it." - A True Patriot

Kro-Bar
Jul 24, 2004
USPOL May
The actual cutest. :keke:

https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/793272062529839104

GalacticAcid
Apr 8, 2013

NEW YORK VALUES

I have posted this article before but it really is worth a read - "White Noise" from The American Prospect on the organized white supremacist currents in conservative media and politics. The "intellectual" wing of American white supremacy was grouped around the small journal The Occidental Review, and found its political expression in Tom Tancredo's convention maneuvers to promote anti-immigrant policies in the GOP platform.

The article is from 2004.

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

Tiny Brontosaurus posted:

So like is making death threats on public figures just not secret service visit-worthy anymore?

Keep in mind how well they've been performing over the past few years...:smith:

Casimir Radon
Aug 2, 2008


Tiny Brontosaurus posted:

I'm surprised I haven't heard much from the Cold War generations about all this Trump and Russia stuff. He's looking to be about as close to an actual Manchurian Candidate as possible in reality, and nobody seems outraged enough.
The party that invented McCarthyism sold out to the Russians. :ironicat:

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

axeil posted:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

Upshot has Hillary up 53.6-42 in early vote in NC with a projected finish of 49-43.3, which is running about 4.5 points ahead of what 538 is predicting and 538's model does not take into account early vote.

If she really does outperform projections by 4.5 points that's a landslide.

this is good and encouraging but there isn't a ton of evidence that hillary is beating aggregate polling by 4.5 points across a variety of states

OH and IA both look worse for dems than in 2012 for example (GA too i think), and FL has been somewhat mixed. NC/NV/CO have looked pretty good and AZ has been better than 2012 but not clear if it'll be good enough to flip it

in other news i don't believe this for one minute but file it into the "lol if true" pile
https://twitter.com/AndreaChalupa/status/793263468447236096

Kro-Bar
Jul 24, 2004
USPOL May

Yaws posted:

This is kinda petty and childish but who are some ardent Trump supporters on Twitter I should follow on election night? I wanna see the meltdown.

Bill Mitchell is the first name that comes to mind.

Duscat
Jan 4, 2009
Fun Shoe

Tiny Brontosaurus posted:

I'm surprised I haven't heard much from the Cold War generations about all this Trump and Russia stuff. He's looking to be about as close to an actual Manchurian Candidate as possible in reality, and nobody seems outraged enough.

That part of the American electorate has spent the last 30 years listening to right-wing talk radio. It's why even back in the Bush days we had a Bush spokespeep deriding "the reality-based community".

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

Nessus posted:

You got a source for this? I've been hearing it's both up generally, and significantly up with Democrats, in various locations. I mean if you're saying "worse in some" to mean it's worse in like, Wyoming, I guess you're technically accurate - the best kind of accurate - but not, you know, truthy.

https://twitter.com/electproject

Nevada seems to be the only state that shows the disparity in GOTV operations between Dems and Republicans that the media reporting would lead you to believe.

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake

to be honest i'm not sure why the hillary campaign wasn't doing this from day 1

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



TyrantWD posted:

https://twitter.com/electproject

Nevada seems to be the only state that shows the disparity in GOTV operations between Dems and Republicans that the media reporting would lead you to believe.
Yeah, but how bout axiel's stuff upthread about NC?

skylined!
Apr 6, 2012

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON

sexy loving muskrat posted:

nonsense, that's an economic frustration newspaper

a newspaper for stutterers

ImpAtom
May 24, 2007

Dr.Zeppelin posted:

this is good and encouraging but there isn't a ton of evidence that hillary is beating aggregate polling by 4.5 points across a variety of states

OH and IA both look worse for dems than in 2012 for example (GA too i think), and FL has been somewhat mixed. NC/NV/CO have looked pretty good and AZ has been better than 2012 but not clear if it'll be good enough to flip it

in other news i don't believe this for one minute but file it into the "lol if true" pile
https://twitter.com/AndreaChalupa/status/793263468447236096

There is no secret Trump sex tape.

I both believe this and also desperately want it to be true because dear god do I not want to see or hear about a Trump sex tape.

Night10194
Feb 13, 2012

We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Dr.Zeppelin posted:

this is good and encouraging but there isn't a ton of evidence that hillary is beating aggregate polling by 4.5 points across a variety of states

OH and IA both look worse for dems than in 2012 for example (GA too i think), and FL has been somewhat mixed. NC/NV/CO have looked pretty good and AZ has been better than 2012 but not clear if it'll be good enough to flip it

To be fair if we win NC/NV/CO we kinda win the election, don't we?

HannibalBarca
Sep 11, 2016

History shows, again and again, how nature points out the folly of man.

TyrantWD posted:

https://twitter.com/electproject

Nevada seems to be the only state that shows the disparity in GOTV operations between Dems and Republicans that the media reporting would lead you to believe.

Yeah, this has me worried. On the other hand, I feel like GOTV most makes its presence known on E-Day itself, since the sort of people coming out for early voting tend to be motivated hard-partisans. Anyway. we'll see, but my gut feeling is that this is not anything more than a 4-5 point race and that Senate control is basically a coinflip. Not ideal, certainly.

GalacticAcid
Apr 8, 2013

NEW YORK VALUES

Tiny Brontosaurus posted:

I'm surprised I haven't heard much from the Cold War generations about all this Trump and Russia stuff. He's looking to be about as close to an actual Manchurian Candidate as possible in reality, and nobody seems outraged enough.


Casimir Radon posted:

The party that invented McCarthyism sold out to the Russians. :ironicat:

McCarthyism was first and foremost anticommunist.

Putin is not a Communist.

ponzicar
Mar 17, 2008

Tiny Brontosaurus posted:

There have been plenty of oppo bombs, they just never stick for more than a week

True. I was thinking more in terms of hoping for something between now and the election that will flip the house and give Trump the crushing defeat he deserves.

axeil
Feb 14, 2006

Dr.Zeppelin posted:

this is good and encouraging but there isn't a ton of evidence that hillary is beating aggregate polling by 4.5 points across a variety of states

OH and IA both look worse for dems than in 2012 for example (GA too i think), and FL has been somewhat mixed. NC/NV/CO have looked pretty good and AZ has been better than 2012 but not clear if it'll be good enough to flip it


Oh yes that's an excellent point. We only have really detailed info on early voting in North Carolina due to the way they report it so it's a bit spurious to extrapolate things out to other states. Still. If Clinton does win NC then Trump's winning maps are:



A crazy collapse of Clinton support in the Midwest

or



Clinton somehow losing PA.

That's it. Those are pretty much the only scenarios you can lay out where Trump wins if Clinton wins NC and they are already pretty loving unlikely.



I mean this is it, this is the POST A MAP for this election. Yes, Trump could win in this scenario but I have no loving idea how he manages to win MI+WI+IA OR PA+NH+IA+ME-2. It's a really tall order.

axeil fucked around with this message at 03:19 on Nov 1, 2016

Flip Yr Wig
Feb 21, 2007

Oh please do go on
Fun Shoe

Duscat posted:

That part of the American electorate has spent the last 30 years listening to right-wing talk radio. It's why even back in the Bush days we had a Bush spokespeep deriding "the reality-based community".

That was Cheney, and the quote was more him fellating himself about being powerful enough to change reality than about right wing epistemic closure.

Casimir Radon
Aug 2, 2008


GalacticAcid posted:

McCarthyism was first and foremost anticommunist.

Putin is not a Communist.
He operates like a Soviet, probably because that's where he got his start.

bad day
Mar 26, 2012

by VideoGames

smug n stuff posted:

I just want to say I love your avatar--one of the most bizarre governmental ""scandals" of recent memory.
I actually volunteered for Rep. Wu's campaign for my high school government class project--was pretty odd hearing about his shenanigans.

Well clearly I did not give it to myself. :smithicide:

I am somewhat serious about this "Illuminati" question. Evidence in the Saville case suggests that similar things were happening in association with a Catholic Boy's Town charity in Iowa and a black dude named Larry King with close ties to Capitol Hill and a gay escort ring that visited the White House multiple times.

I was really surprised at all this because I researched the whole Project Monarch conspiracy theory and its various threads in order to write a comic book some ten years ago, but the Saville thing has confirmed at least some of this stuff is real. And it has to do with Jeffery Epstein. Who is both Trump and Bill Clinton's personal friend.

So..

Night10194
Feb 13, 2012

We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

axeil posted:

Oh yes that's an excellent point. We only have really detailed info on early voting in North Carolina due to the way they report it so it's a bit spurious to extrapolate things out to other states. Still. If Clinton does win NC then Trump's winning maps are:



A crazy collapse of Clinton support in the Midwest

or



Clinton somehow losing PA.

That's it. Those are pretty much the only scenarios you can lay out where Trump wins if Clinton wins NC and they are already pretty loving unlikely.

Bastard ain't gettin' Michigan, I can tell you that.

rscott
Dec 10, 2009

GalacticAcid posted:

McCarthyism was first and foremost anticommunist.

Putin is not a Communist.

A friend of mine asked me when the democrats started caring about the Russians and I told him when the United States became more left wing than Russia did

Tiny Brontosaurus
Aug 1, 2013

by Lowtax
Periscope of the White House halloween party - Barry starts doing some classic dad-dancing to "Thriller" about a minute in.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

axeil posted:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

Upshot has Hillary up 53.6-42 in early vote in NC with a projected finish of 49-43.3, which is running about 4.5 points ahead of what 538 is predicting and 538's model does not take into account early vote.

If she really does outperform projections by 4.5 points that's a landslide.

How did Obama do in the early voting in 2012?

Sarmhan
Nov 1, 2011


Night10194 posted:

Bastard ain't gettin' Michigan, I can tell you that.
Also NE-2 is looking promising and ME-3 is looking safe.

parcs
Nov 20, 2011
Realistically what will happen if Trump wins?

Sky Shadowing
Feb 13, 2012

At least we're not the Thalmor (yet)
I don't understand 538 sometimes- their last update had two solid polls for Hillary- B+ rated in New Hampshire, D in Michigan. But her percentage dropped by .8%.

But it's almost okay. We're almost there. We just have to hold on.

GalacticAcid
Apr 8, 2013

NEW YORK VALUES

Casimir Radon posted:

He operates like a Soviet, probably because that's where he got his start.

Authoriatiarian impulses do not make someone a Communist. Authoritarians are very popular on the American Right.

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


parcs posted:

Realistically what will happen if Trump wins?

Best case scenario is 4 years of dumb Republican policies getting rubberstamped

Kro-Bar
Jul 24, 2004
USPOL May

parcs posted:

Realistically what will happen if Trump wins?

Northjayhawk
Mar 8, 2008

by exmarx

axeil posted:

Oh yes that's an excellent point. We only have really detailed info on early voting in North Carolina due to the way they report it so it's a bit spurious to extrapolate things out to other states. Still. If Clinton does win NC then Trump's winning maps are:



A crazy collapse of Clinton support in the Midwest

or



Clinton somehow losing PA.

That's it. Those are pretty much the only scenarios you can lay out where Trump wins if Clinton wins NC and they are already pretty loving unlikely.



I mean this is it, this is the POST A MAP for this election. Yes, Trump could win in this scenario but I have no loving idea how he manages to win MI+WI+IA OR PA+NH+IA+ME-2. It's a really tall order.

I think we can safely eliminate the 1st map.

The ONLY map I can see that won't get someone predicting a Trump win laughed right out of the room is the second one, and thats pretty drat unlikely.

axeil
Feb 14, 2006

Night10194 posted:

Bastard ain't gettin' Michigan, I can tell you that.

Yep. Way too many minority voters in MI to make it possible. WI is a maybe but even then he still loses. Which is why I think that first scenario is completely out and the only chance is playing for a 269-269 tie and swinging it to the House.

I'm pretty confident in saying that NC is in the bag for Hillary at this point along with VA. With that you don't need much to win the election and in many scenarios it's already won.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



parcs posted:

Realistically what will happen if Trump wins?
Nothing good unless you're Donald Trump or already very rich

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Agrajag
Jan 21, 2006

gat dang thats hot

yes but they are both equally bad because emails

  • Locked thread