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"cite a credible source" as a response to someone linking to a Slate article, while at the same time referring to a Breitbart interview with Pat Caddell freaking out about early voting sure is something. 
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Nov 1, 2016 11:13
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i would like to come out on record as saying that any individual who has experienced hostility or intolerance because of their race, class, religion, sexual orientation or gender identity are incapble of holding lovely racist and regressive opinions, so don't you dare throw accusations like that around
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Nov 1, 2016 11:14
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Trump hotline to Moscow bank revealed as FBI probes Kremlin's five-year planquote:In Washington, there's a bunch of politicians and investigators trying to join the dots – and over at the FBI a bunch of spooks saying that they don't join up. The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion: Votez escroc, pas facho > USPOL Nov: There's a Trump Sex Tape and the Kremlin has it. In other news, any further posts by Prester Jane? I found them very interesting.
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Nov 1, 2016 11:18
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Tom Guycot posted:The what? That Trump's a Clinton Mole that's losing on purpose. Agent Greenback was what he was called in a political cartoon during the primary.
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Nov 1, 2016 11:18
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Comstar posted:Trump hotline to Moscow bank revealed as FBI probes Kremlin's five-year plan what in the everloving gently caress is happening did wifi make us all insane? is this a joke?
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Nov 1, 2016 11:24
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Geostomp posted:It's idiots, people intimidated by others, and the handful of Republicans that still have too much integrity to go Trump even for the Supreme court, imo. I think there might be a big polling miss bubbling under in that all the while everyone has been laser focused on the infamous Trump Voter, you have even more Clinton voters and it might be that it's Clinton voters that the polls are missing. It swings both ways. You just can't write a good thinkpiece on Clinton voters because Clinton voters are diverse ordinary people while the Trump bloc is far more homogenic.
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Nov 1, 2016 11:24
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Comstar posted:In other news, any further posts by Prester Jane? I found them very interesting. From their own thread, Prester Jane is taking a step back from dealing with this stuff for the sake of their health and to try and move on in their life. They made a post explaining it all, but basically they don't want this to harm their efforts at sorting out an identity they're comfortable with moving forward after everything they've had to deal with so far in life. Here we go, found a link to the specific post: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3708238&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=95#post465729510
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Nov 1, 2016 11:28
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QuarkJets posted:what in the everloving gently caress is happening
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Nov 1, 2016 11:27
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Crazy Ted posted:We secretly added an extra seven days to October in order to fit in more surprises. Aligns with baseball in November too.
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Nov 1, 2016 11:29
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QuarkJets posted:what in the everloving gently caress is happening turns out 40 straight years of conservatives actively eschewing intellectualism and critical thought whenever they were at odds with conservative policy worked
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Nov 1, 2016 11:30
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Can we all agree to never even indulge Tashan Dorrsett with a reply to their insane behavior, because they're a devoted troll with just a garbage perspective?
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Nov 1, 2016 11:32
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I'm aryzing so drat hard here.  https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/793253029197836292
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Nov 1, 2016 11:33
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Charlz Guybon posted:I'm aryzing so drat hard here. He just wants clicks. Trump is not going to win. It doesn't matter that Clinton's underperforming Obama when she's only underperforming him by fractions of a percent in most of those. She's still winning by multiple percentage points. The only thing to arzy over is the Senate, and even there I'm confident that dems will get at least 50 seats + Kaine tiebreaker.
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Nov 1, 2016 11:34
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Literally Elvis posted:Can we all agree to never even indulge Tashan Dorrsett with a reply to their insane behavior, because they're a devoted troll with just a garbage perspective? i promise to not respond to a tashan dorrsett post for the remainder of november
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Nov 1, 2016 11:36
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Nate has been pushing this electoral/popular vote split for months now. It's pretty convenient to show that she's underperforming Obama's real margin when his own polling underperformed his real margin iirc
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Nov 1, 2016 11:39
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Queering Wheel posted:He just wants clicks. Trump is not going to win. It doesn't matter that Clinton's underperforming Obama when she's only underperforming him by fractions of a percent in most of those. She's still winning by multiple percentage points. The only thing to arzy over is the Senate, and even there I'm confident that dems will get at least 50 seats + Kaine tiebreaker. "A strong national polling doesn't necessarily translate into an EC win" is the main takeaway here and it means people shouldn't rest on their laurels. Also the EC is dumb and bad but I guess we won't get rid of it until it starts hurting the GOP somehow (even though EC math generally favours the Dem, the GOP would have absolutely no hope of winning a popular vote election because you'd have incredible Democratic GOTV in all major urban areas throughout the country and it would make vote suppression way less effective).
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Nov 1, 2016 11:40
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Queering Wheel posted:He just wants clicks. Trump is not going to win. It doesn't matter that Clinton's underperforming Obama when she's only underperforming him by fractions of a percent in most of those. She's still winning by multiple percentage points. The only thing to arzy over is the Senate, and even there I'm confident that dems will get at least 50 seats + Kaine tiebreaker. This is precisely what he should do.
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Nov 1, 2016 11:41
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Zebulon posted:From their own thread, Prester Jane is taking a step back from dealing with this stuff for the sake of their health and to try and move on in their life. They made a post explaining it all, but basically they don't want this to harm their efforts at sorting out an identity they're comfortable with moving forward after everything they've had to deal with so far in life. I was wondering about that. Best of luck to her. Tashan Dorrsett posted:Are you accusing me of being a racist and putting words in my mouth? I'd answer in the affirmative, but it looks like I won't hear your rebuttal for the next month or so. 90s Solo Cup fucked around with this message at 11:44 on Nov 1, 2016 |
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Nov 1, 2016 11:40
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Charlz Guybon posted:I'm aryzing so drat hard here. We're alright my goon. Hillary's got this and Senates in a good spot too. Deep breath. Seven days.
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Nov 1, 2016 11:42
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Domestic Amuse posted:I'd answer in the affirmative, but it looks like I won't hear your rebuttal for the next month or so. Haha, okay I know I asked people to stop quoting her, but because I have her ignored I missed the probation, so, thanks for the heads up. Islam is the Lite Rock FM posted:We're alright my goon. Hillary's got this and Senates in a good spot too. Deep breath. Seven days. Yeah, despite all the "win popular vote but not the election" talk, even Nate's own model shows that as very unlikely. 10% (according to the election forecast) isn't ideal, but it's better odds than Russian Roulette with one bullet, at least, and Nate himself admits that his model is conservative on the chances of Hillary's victory. We're fine. Still need to vote, and any way one can help Hillary or downballot Democrats is definitely worth doing, but things are very likely to work out about as well as they can here. We're fine.
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Nov 1, 2016 11:47
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Yeah for sure the best thing we all can do here is vote and encourage like-minded pals to vote too.
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Nov 1, 2016 11:50
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Cingulate posted:He set up his model months ago, and now he's faithfully responding what the model says. He's particularly inclined to stick with the model because it was might better at accounting for The Angry Old White/Orange Dude in the primaries. To be clear, I think Nate generally does a good job and I don't mean to bash him. It's just hard to see how Trump even pulls off an EC win at this point. There would have to be a widespread, systemic failure of polling. A Trump comeback would be unprecedented. His model takes things like that into account and makes it more conservative, which I don't have a problem with. I just think it's a very unlikely scenario. Antti posted:"A strong national polling doesn't necessarily translate into an EC win" is the main takeaway here and it means people shouldn't rest on their laurels. Agreed, and I'm glad that Clinton's campaign is pushing the message that Dems should not take anything for granted.
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Nov 1, 2016 11:50
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Queering Wheel posted:To be clear, I think Nate generally does a good job and I don't mean to bash him. It's just hard to see how Trump even pulls off an EC win at this point. There would have to be a widespread, systemic failure of polling. A Trump comeback would be unprecedented. His model takes things like that into account and makes it more conservative, which I don't have a problem with. I just think it's a very unlikely scenario. Especially since the main reason the GOP keeps taking Congress and consistently dominates local elections is because most Democrats are too complacent to bother voting in those elections.
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Nov 1, 2016 11:59
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The biggest evidence that Trump’s losing. Aryzing finished. Stiffed his pollster over 700 grand. http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Nov01.html#item-2 http://www.thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/303615-trump-camp-refusing-to-pay-pollster quote:Trump Stiffs His Pollster
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Nov 1, 2016 12:07
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The ABC tracking poll is now at Trump +1, but you know - tracking poll.
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Nov 1, 2016 12:07
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Charlz Guybon posted:I'm aryzing so drat hard here. That's somewhat misleading since he seems to be comparing the real results to the current poll numbers.
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Nov 1, 2016 12:12
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freckle posted:Just lol if you haven't voted multiple times in multiple states already. Don't voteshame.
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Nov 1, 2016 12:12
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canepazzo posted:The ABC tracking poll is now at Trump +1, but you know - tracking poll. This is one post-mortem I really want to see. How the gently caress does your tracking poll go from +12 to -1 in a week? Did they sample multiple 19-year old high-income black men from Chicago?
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Nov 1, 2016 12:13
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Antti posted:This is one post-mortem I really want to see. How the gently caress does your tracking poll go from +12 to -1 in a week? Did they sample multiple 19-year old high-income black men from Chicago? Because their likely voter screen appears to be too reactive. They have already said that the changes are not because of voter intention in the sample, but because of who is passing the likely voter screen and who isn't.
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Nov 1, 2016 12:14
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Pedro De Heredia posted:Because their likely voter screen appears to be too reactive. That also explains why it's Trump's number that keeps fluctuating, not Clinton's. I would expect Trump voter intent to be more in flux. Again, even in the context of this poll, it's not that Clinton is going up or down, it's that Trump's numbers keep going all over the place from high 30s to mid 40s. This is in basically every poll right now. He's bumping into his ceiling again in the final stretch. If you look at the average, it's not a Clinton collapse like September, but a Trump rally.
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Nov 1, 2016 12:15
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What's the story behind those FBI crime statistics? They're getting trotted out a lot lately.
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Nov 1, 2016 12:19
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I wish this nightmare was already over. I just want President Clinton and an end to this madness and horror.
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Nov 1, 2016 12:20
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I've learned a lot of things this election and apparently you can just not pay people if you don't want to.
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Nov 1, 2016 12:22
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Jonas Albrecht posted:What's the story behind those FBI crime statistics? They're getting trotted out a lot lately. Certain people use them to claim that black people are disproportionately predisposed to being criminals due to genetics. While leaving out the fact that black people are disproportionately economically and educationally disadvantaged.
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Nov 1, 2016 12:23
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Night10194 posted:I wish this nightmare was already over. ummm... excuse me? i think you'll find that the true madness and horror will be unleashed under the thousand years of liberal darkness brought about by the Vagenda of Manocide.
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Nov 1, 2016 12:24
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That ABC poll can't help but make me arzy some. I know it's a dumb tracking poll and there has to be something wrong with one that shows a 13 point swing in 8 days, but I'd sure like to see a few pro-Clinton outliers, too, to calm me down.
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Nov 1, 2016 12:26
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ABC/WaPo poll in 2012:code:
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Nov 1, 2016 12:26
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So California's attempting to pressure states with anti-LGBT laws now:quote:The state of California isn’t sending any of its employees to North Carolina, Tennessee, or Arkansas, because it’s now against the law to do so. More in the link. Not sure how it'll work out, but, we'll see I guess.
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Nov 1, 2016 12:27
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The thing is, whenever Trump surges to get kinda close again it's this weird feeling like a natural disaster, you know? Where it's like 'We've done everything we can, why the gently caress is this happening?'
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Nov 1, 2016 12:28
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I'm feeling confident about the White House and even optimistic for the Senate but extremely pessimistic for the next 4 years. Republicans are going to be shitheads as always and the Deplorables will be more empowered than ever  .
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Nov 1, 2016 12:28
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