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Munkeymon
Aug 14, 2003

Motherfucker's got an
armor-piercing crowbar! Rigoddamndicu𝜆ous.



mcmagic posted:

You can have all the moral bravery you want while you lose. Good for you. I care about winning and winning by the largest margins possible. That would have a much more positive impact on people's lives and on the issues that I and I expect most progressives care about than one person's accomplishments.

So no fucks about governance after the win? Or about the fact that you've handed the opposition a winning strategy for sinking more careers at will?

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Lemming
Apr 21, 2008

Northjayhawk posted:

Hypothetically, if on election night the polls are where they are now, we expect Clinton to get a close win maybe a 50/50 senate, and..... inexplicably Clinton just cruises to a 12-point wipeout and the Dems take all of congress.

What would that mean for polling this year and how could they adjust to a huge miss? Maybe a correlation between people who enjoy answering polls and GOP voters? Missing latinos showing up at the polls? Or just a one-time anomaly driven by the fact that Trump is Trump?

It'd likely show that ground game matters and GOTV operations have a significant effect on who actually ends up voting, so it wouldn't be that the polls were wrong, it would mean the likely voter screens the pollsters create were wrong.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

Northjayhawk posted:

Hypothetically, if on election night the polls are where they are now, we expect Clinton to get a close win maybe a 50/50 senate, and..... inexplicably Clinton just cruises to a 12-point wipeout and the Dems take all of congress.

What would that mean for polling this year and how could they adjust to a huge miss? Maybe a correlation between people who enjoy answering polls and GOP voters? Missing latinos showing up at the polls? Or just a one-time anomaly driven by the fact that Trump is Trump?

If the polls are wrong, there are lots of potential explanations, ranging from land line bias to lack of Spanish language polls to poor expected voter estimations.

Duscat
Jan 4, 2009
Fun Shoe

iospace posted:

The understanding is that account is a bot, and is publishing FOIA requests to the public.

I think anyway.

It didn't autonomously pick the timing nor choose the material to publish.

Doctor Butts
May 21, 2002

CascadeBeta posted:

Why is it every time I look at USPol, I see your stupid garbage polluting the thread. We get it, you think you're smarter than everyone and Bernie should be the dark messiah for 1000 years of liberal darkness but now because everyone (read: white men) hate Hillary, the cheeto's going to win. Either Toxx for Trump or stop posting, jesus.

Man, I dunno, I think it's time you put him on ignore.

Gorelab
Dec 26, 2006

Also the average of polls I thought was closer to a 2012 level win than a super close Bush v Gore affair.

Ever Disappointing
May 4, 2004

This election has really turned me into a hardline partisan. At this point it is clear that I cannot get along with the kind of psychopath who would vote for Trump. Kinda scary that around 40% of the electorate might as well be aliens to me now. I don't even want to engage in discussion with them. Scorched earth. I'd be pruning my Facebook heavily if I had not quit it years ago because of the conservative bully pulpit there.

Anyone else feeling the same way?

Covok
May 27, 2013

Yet where is that woman now? Tell me, in what heave does she reside? None of them. Because no God bothered to listen or care. If that is what you think it means to be a God, then you and all your teachings are welcome to do as that poor women did. And vanish from these realms forever.
Full on arzy mode now. Full on. FBI is rigging the election for Trump because Comey is a partisan fucker violating the limits of his own power.

We're all hosed forever.

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

COMMENCE THE RITE OF SHITPOSTING

Doctor Butts posted:

Man, I dunno, I think it's time you put him on ignore.

Ignoring mcmagic only made me notice his posts more

Tricky D
Apr 1, 2005

I love um!

Munkeymon posted:

So no fucks about governance after the win? Or about the fact that you've handed the opposition a winning strategy for sinking more careers at will?

You should probably just give up if you are trying to get mcmagic to honestly consider the consequences of his position.

canepazzo
May 29, 2006



FWIW, that SurveyUsa poll of NC had Trump at 14% afro-american vote and 43% 18-35 vote which seems a bit off.

Anime Schoolgirl
Nov 28, 2002

Tir McDohl posted:

This election has really turned me into a hardline partisan. At this point it is clear that I cannot get along with the kind of psychopath who would vote for Trump. Kinda scary that around 40% of the electorate might as well be aliens to me now. I don't even want to engage in discussion with them. Scorched earth. I'd be pruning my Facebook heavily if I had not quit it years ago because of the conservative bully pulpit there.

Anyone else feeling the same way?
If you think that's the depths of human depravity, you haven't seen jack loving poo poo

Covok posted:

Full on arzy mode now. Full on. FBI is rigging the election for Trump because Comey is a partisan fucker violating the limits of his own power.

We're all hosed forever.
Sounds like a good time for a housecleaning and for Comey to hitch a ride on Putin's crew only to be found dead in a wastebasket 2 years later for not tightening Putin's shoes correctly

Donkwich
Feb 28, 2011


Grimey Drawer

Instant Sunrise posted:

"Not only are we going to New Hampshire, Tom Harkin, we're going to South Carolina and Oklahoma And Arizona.. And North Dakota And New Mexico! We're going to California and Texas and New York! And we're going to South Dakota and Oregon and Washington and Michigan! And then we're going to Washington D.C. to take back the White House! Yeah!!!"

that was played 633 times in a 4 day period, now multiply that out over the course of an entire election cycle.

At least it's more energy than Kerry showed.

Speaking of candidates from bygones past:

https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/793453371000705024

Cingulate
Oct 23, 2012

by Fluffdaddy
I, for one, am arzying.

:derp:

Tir McDohl posted:

This election has really turned me into a hardline partisan. At this point it is clear that I cannot get along with the kind of psychopath who would vote for Trump. Kinda scary that around 40% of the electorate might as well be aliens to me now. I don't even want to engage in discussion with them. Scorched earth. I'd be pruning my Facebook heavily if I had not quit it years ago because of the conservative bully pulpit there.

Anyone else feeling the same way?
It has really pulled me closer towards the center of the left. Not in what I believe, but in how much I believe it.

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.
How badly is Obama regretting his Comey appointment right about now?

U-DO Burger
Nov 12, 2007




Shimrra Jamaane posted:

How much is that due to there being more early voting precincts?

That's a good question, but I doubt there's an accurate way to measure that effect before early voting actually ends.

Ogmius815
Aug 25, 2005
centrism is a hell of a drug

Cingulate posted:

I, for one, am arzying.

:derp:

It has really pulled me closer towards the center of the left. Not in what I believe, but in how much I believe it.

I've also moved significantly toward the center. Mostly as a reaction to seeing how foolish and impractical the far left is.

Lead out in cuffs
Sep 18, 2012

"That's right. We've evolved."

"I can see that. Cool mutations."




Gyges posted:

So I got texted to help with GOTV here. Anyone know what all I'll be doing for that?

Hillary's website has a super-quick quiz that guides you through the various options and helps you choose:

https://www.hillaryclinton.com/page/volunteer-quiz-start/

E: This should probably be in the OP or something.

Anime Schoolgirl
Nov 28, 2002

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

How badly is Obama regretting his Comey appointment right about now?
That would be the (double-digit)th time something as political appeasance has backfired on him, it's not like he's not used to that

Northjayhawk
Mar 8, 2008

by exmarx

Tir McDohl posted:

This election has really turned me into a hardline partisan. At this point it is clear that I cannot get along with the kind of psychopath who would vote for Trump. Kinda scary that around 40% of the electorate might as well be aliens to me now. I don't even want to engage in discussion with them. Scorched earth. I'd be pruning my Facebook heavily if I had not quit it years ago because of the conservative bully pulpit there.

Anyone else feeling the same way?

Yep. I've never voted straight Democrat. Federally, Governor, and the state legislature sure, but at the state and local level I do my research and usually find at least 1 or 2 Republicans somewhere that look more competent (or their opponent is a crazy-rear end) running for what is basically a non-partisan non-legislative office.

This year, I'm doing no research except for races where party is not listed and not known, then I guess I'll figure those out. This year, if you have a D next to your name, you got my vote. If a Republican is running unopposed, I'll leave that race blank.

Monaghan
Dec 29, 2006

Maybe democrats will learn that appointing republicans to positions of power is stupid and will always gently caress them over.

... and I can quietly feel vindicated for supporting Bernie while president trumps fucks up everything.

Ogmius815 posted:

I've also moved significantly toward the center. Mostly as a reaction to seeing how foolish and impractical the far left is.


please define far left and how they are foolish and impractical.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

How badly is Obama regretting his Comey appointment right about now?

Luther is being deployed as we post.

Trade Chat Troll
Jan 22, 2010

Northjayhawk posted:

Hypothetically, if on election night the polls are where they are now, we expect Clinton to get a close win maybe a 50/50 senate, and..... inexplicably Clinton just cruises to a 12-point wipeout and the Dems take all of congress.

What would that mean for polling this year and how could they adjust to a huge miss? Maybe a correlation between people who enjoy answering polls and GOP voters? Missing latinos showing up at the polls? Or just a one-time anomaly driven by the fact that Trump is Trump?

GOTV

E: beaten like Ted Strickland

Trade Chat Troll fucked around with this message at 22:29 on Nov 1, 2016

comingafteryouall
Aug 2, 2011


Tir McDohl posted:

This election has really turned me into a hardline partisan. At this point it is clear that I cannot get along with the kind of psychopath who would vote for Trump. Kinda scary that around 40% of the electorate might as well be aliens to me now. I don't even want to engage in discussion with them. Scorched earth. I'd be pruning my Facebook heavily if I had not quit it years ago because of the conservative bully pulpit there.

Anyone else feeling the same way?

Mostly the same. It's hard to get along with someone when they get their news from infowars, breitbart, or whatever dumb smaller websites they read. You can't argue with them. They're not reasonable and will never admit a story isn't true, no matter how much evidence you give them.

Except for a couple of my friends that were educated at good schools and learned how to do research, but still lean conservative. Unfortunately, that is a small subset of the Republican party these days and they still read the sketchy sources.

Eggplant Squire
Aug 14, 2003


Is this freakout over that one NC poll? For that to be indicative of a national trend it requires pretty much everyone in this country to go "welp Trump is alright I guess" combined with Democrats suddenly caring about emails. Even then NC isn't required. I'm guessing more and more embarrassed Republicans are coming home to daddy Trump instead of being principled and voting third party or abstaining but that still isn't enough.

The FBI seemingly going all in on Trump support regardless of effect is a lot more creepy especially if after the election everyone treats it like it was cute.

Northjayhawk
Mar 8, 2008

by exmarx

canepazzo posted:

FWIW, that SurveyUsa poll of NC had Trump at 14% afro-american vote and 43% 18-35 vote which seems a bit off.

Thats 43% of 18-35 who had no Halloween weekend plans, stayed home sober and watched TV. So, good young Republicans.

The MUMPSorceress
Jan 6, 2012


^SHTPSTS

Gary’s Answer

iospace posted:

I live in Milwaukee County and Ryan is my congressman :barf:

lol, I didn't realize they'd hosed with the district boundary that much in the last redistricting. I take it you're in the white flight zone of Milwaukee County then?

for thread's reference: The outskirts of Milwaukee county are 1.5 hours from Janesville (which used to be the center of Ryan's district) and you have to drive through 1-2 other counties in between depending on your route. Also Rock County (Ryan's original district center) is one of the poorest and most minority-heavy in the state, and the outer part of Milwaukee County is one of the richest and whitest areas in the state. The two areas have basically nothing in common.

Cingulate
Oct 23, 2012

by Fluffdaddy

Lead out in cuffs posted:

Hillary's website has a super-quick quiz that guides you through the various options and helps you choose:

https://www.hillaryclinton.com/page/volunteer-quiz-start/

E: This should probably be in the OP or something.
I hope y'all Americans are doing this. Yours is a beautiful country. Shame if something ... happened to it.

Libertine
Jun 21, 2004

When I die, I hope they say I made the eSports industry a better place than I made millions of dollars.

Harrow posted:

Yeah, the media bubble thing is absolutely a part of it, too. It's why people like my dad are all-in on Clinton body count bullshit, while other people believe that Trump's accusers have been fully discredited (when they haven't). Conspiracy theory echo chambers are only getting stronger and stronger.

This post is pretty ironic considering the thread is full of stuff like this:

Tir McDohl posted:

This election has really turned me into a hardline partisan. At this point it is clear that I cannot get along with the kind of psychopath who would vote for Trump. Kinda scary that around 40% of the electorate might as well be aliens to me now. I don't even want to engage in discussion with them. Scorched earth. I'd be pruning my Facebook heavily if I had not quit it years ago because of the conservative bully pulpit there.

Most places in the country are like a 40/40 split with the independent 20 deciding who wins. Everyone who lives in the United States knows somebody supporting both candidates, full stop. If you've disowned any of your friends and family for their vote I don't know what to tell you, neither one of these candidates are worth that kind of loyalty at all.

This whole election has just been wrought with individual grandstanding.

remusclaw
Dec 8, 2009

So, one thing for sure is that the Director of the FBI is now a partisan position and will likely not be appointed across party lines from now on.

Instant Sunrise
Apr 12, 2007


The manger babies don't have feelings. You said it yourself.

LeftistMuslimObama posted:

lol, I didn't realize they'd hosed with the district boundary that much in the last redistricting. I take it you're in the white flight zone of Milwaukee County then?

for thread's reference: The outskirts of Milwaukee county are 1.5 hours from Janesville (which used to be the center of Ryan's district) and you have to drive through 1-2 other counties in between depending on your route. Also Rock County (Ryan's original district center) is one of the poorest and most minority-heavy in the state, and the outer part of Milwaukee County is one of the richest and whitest areas in the state. The two areas have basically nothing in common.

project REDMAP strikes again

Gorelab
Dec 26, 2006

Radish posted:

Is this freakout over that one NC poll? For that to be indicative of a national trend it requires pretty much everyone in this country to go "welp Trump is alright I guess" combined with Democrats suddenly caring about emails. Even then NC isn't required. I'm guessing more and more embarrassed Republicans are coming home to daddy Trump instead of being principled and voting third party or abstaining but that still isn't enough.

The FBI seemingly going all in on Trump support regardless of effect is a lot more creepy especially if after the election everyone treats it like it was cute.

What makes it hilarious is that there were other post email polls of NC and they had Clinton ahead, except for one tie, and one by Remington which was Trump +2. Trump +7 is almost certainly a massive massive outlier.

The Rokstar
Aug 19, 2002

by FactsAreUseless

Libertine posted:

This post is pretty ironic considering the thread is full of stuff like this:


Most places in the country are like a 40/40 split with the independent 20 deciding who wins. Everyone who lives in the United States knows somebody supporting both candidates, full stop. If you've disowned any of your friends and family for their vote I don't know what to tell you, neither one of these candidates are worth that kind of loyalty at all.

This whole election has just been wrought with individual grandstanding.

It's not so much loyalty to Clinton as it is if you're voting for Trump you're a goddamn psychopath.

ImpAtom
May 24, 2007

Northjayhawk posted:

Thats 43% of 18-35 who had no Halloween weekend plans, stayed home sober and watched TV. So, good young Republicans.

Man, I don't know what Republicans you know who are the sober type.

Eggplant Squire
Aug 14, 2003


remusclaw posted:

So, one thing for sure is that the Director of the FBI is now a partisan position and will likely not be appointed across party lines from now on.

Seriously any Democrat that appoints a Republican to any office unless there's no alternative whatsoever after Obama's term is an absolute fool.

smug n stuff
Jul 21, 2016

A Hobbit's Adventure
If people don't all hate Hillary Clinton, why do I keep insisting they do?

theflyingorc
Jun 28, 2008

ANY GOOD OPINIONS THIS POSTER CLAIMS TO HAVE ARE JUST PROOF THAT BULLYING WORKS
Young Orc

Northjayhawk posted:

Thats 43% of 18-35 who had no Halloween weekend plans, stayed home sober and watched TV. So, good young Republicans.

...that's honestly a really good point

Libertine
Jun 21, 2004

When I die, I hope they say I made the eSports industry a better place than I made millions of dollars.

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

How badly is Obama regretting his Comey appointment right about now?

Considering he endorsed him less than 24 hours ago, probably not much.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

remusclaw posted:

So, one thing for sure is that the Director of the FBI is now a partisan position and will likely not be appointed across party lines from now on.

Has a Republican ever appointed a Democrat as Director of the FBI?

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Donkwich
Feb 28, 2011


Grimey Drawer

ImpAtom posted:

Man, I don't know what Republicans you know who are the sober type.

Does meth count?

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