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I'm reminded of a campaign where our paladin decided that he should put on the evil aura emitting, black-ice armor that the dungeon boss was wearing without a second thought. That is Trump. EDIT: New page D&D analogy, best D&D analogy.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:53
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TyrantWD posted:Everyone here has been working off the same sources (Elect Project and the journalists that specialize in certain states like Jon Ralston). No one has actually posted a source showing Hillary doing better against Trump than Obama did against Romney (other than in CO and VA which aren't really swing states anymore). piss off, you disingenuous motherfucker
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Nov 2, 2016 00:55
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Samuel Clemens posted:That's a good write-up, although calling PA "competitive" is a bit of a stretch. It pretty much never turns red outside of landslide elections. Its competitive in the same way that Charlie Brown is always close to kicking the football. The GOP usually doesn't get wiped out in PA and they are obviously able to elect the random GOP senator here and there, but they always seem to fall several points short.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:55
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If anyone wants more info about Florida Early Voting, here's some numbers: The black vote is on a lower slope than last time, but there are more days to go and apparently they had a strong surge today edit: The big question is this: Are whites in Florida MORE LIKELY TO VOTE, or MORE LIKELY TO VOTE EARLY If they're more likely to vote this year, that's great for Trump. That means he wins the state. If they're simply more likely to vote EARLY, that means that, effectively, he's just moved voters around. Also, your friendly reminder that Hillary does not need Florida to win. theflyingorc fucked around with this message at 00:57 on Nov 2, 2016 |
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Nov 2, 2016 00:55
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TyrantWD posted:Everyone here has been working off the same sources (Elect Project and the journalists that specialize in certain states like Jon Ralston). No one has actually posted a source showing Hillary doing better against Trump than Obama did against Romney (other than in CO and VA which aren't really swing states anymore). Whoever way saying he was comparing the early voting numbers for 2016 to the TOTAL numbers for 2012. You win the prize! e: Laffo Right now Florida is only 700k from the TOTAL# of early ballots cast in 2012, and dems are beating republicans which is better than 2012. A Winner is Jew fucked around with this message at 01:00 on Nov 2, 2016 |
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Nov 2, 2016 00:57
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Northjayhawk posted:Sure. In all cases states can change categories slowly over time as people move around and ethnic minorities grow. For example, California and Missouri used to be competitive, now they are really not, at all. To give an idea of how recently California was considered competitive, GHWB campaigned here as recently as 1992. But beginning in 1994 with the backlash against Prop 187, we've shifted into a reliably Democratic state.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:57
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Augus posted:By the way the Trump supporters on my facebook wall are becoming more and more incomprehensible every day so I'll assume that means Hillary is winning. I stopped using Facebook but I can't even imagine the war zone my wall on there turned into.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:59
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WithoutTheFezOn posted:Minnesota, the competitive state that hasn't voted R since 1972. They have been slowly moving R over the last few decades. They used to be an impregnable Dem stronghold, but the Republicans embracing white identity politics has moved it closer towards the center. I'd put them into reliable blue, personally, but hey.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:59
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lol what the gently caress is this new FBI release 
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Nov 2, 2016 00:59
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Turnout's going to be really high this year. Which is likely screwing up the polls. Not sure who that favors on a national scale though. This doesn't even have Texas, whose numbers have gone through the roof. 
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Nov 2, 2016 01:00
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Instant Sunrise posted:To give an idea of how recently California was considered competitive, GHWB campaigned here as recently as 1992. But beginning in 1994 with the backlash against Prop 187, we've shifted into a reliably Democratic state. Also an increasing Latino population means you guys will be that way for the foreseeable future, Central Valley shitholes notwithstanding
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Nov 2, 2016 01:01
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Charlz Guybon posted:Turnout's going to be really high this year. Which is likely screwing up the polls. Not sure who that favors on a national scale though. Higher turnout has always favored democrats historically.
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Nov 2, 2016 01:01
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Northjayhawk posted:The GOP usually doesn't get wiped out in PA and they are obviously able to elect the random GOP senator here and there, but they always seem to fall several points short. IIRC, one of the Bush aides in 2004 called PA "fool's gold for Republicans", which seems like a fair assessment. It looks appealing to the GOP because it awards a lot of electoral votes and the margin is always fairly close, but Philadelphia pretty much ensures it'll remain blue outside of a horribly loopsided election.
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Nov 2, 2016 01:02
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Here's an article from vox that I think is really good and I would like to share with you but since I'm on mobile I can't do all the fun quoting and mark-up: The best way to understand this odd hopscotch is through the Prime Directive of Clinton investigations: We know the Clintons are guilty; the only question is what are they guilty of and when will we find the evidence? It's even by Matty Y!
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Nov 2, 2016 01:02
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Verus posted:This has always pissed me off -- they has been the singular gender-neutral pronoun for centuries, why do Because a bunch of self appointed language experts in the 1700s and 1800s didn't see a reason to have it, and thought it wasn't elegant enough. Same people who randomly decided that ending sentences with a preposition in English shouldn't be done because it wasn't allowable in ancient Latin. And since those people were considered authorities it stuck for a long time. It's been gradually receding from teaching and style manuals though.
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Nov 2, 2016 01:02
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chumbler posted:He's a republican who held a prominent office. He will have plenty of career options and his reputation will be wholly irrelevant. If anything republicans will venerate him as a real patriot. Fox would gladly bring him on as a talking head, like Judge Neopolitican. Samuel Clemens posted:https://twitter.com/JeffersonObama/status/793574975877767168 God  I'm still having a hard time accepting the idea that Clinton could be up 5+ points. I just don't have that much faith in the American people since it should be C+20 or so because her opponent is a literal fascist surrounding himself with white supremacists.
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Nov 2, 2016 01:03
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Charlz Guybon posted:Turnout's going to be really high this year. Which is likely screwing up the polls. Not sure who that favors on a national scale though. I'm going out on a limb and say its not going to favour the guy who couldn't get more than a dozen people to get on buses and vote for him at one of his own rallies.
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Nov 2, 2016 01:03
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A Winner is Jew posted:Higher turnout has always favored democrats historically. That's true, but in theory white working class voters that typically don't vote could come out in mass. They're one of the lowest participating demographics, so they have room for a lot of growth. It's really the only way Trump could win, so I worry about it.
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Nov 2, 2016 01:03
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nachos posted:lol what the gently caress is this new FBI release It's hilarious because right before that happened my mom was all "James Comey isn't that bad a guy, surely he had a reason to release those emails" and then the instant she saw this new one she was like "ok nope he's a fucker trying to manipulate the election" Can charges be filed against him for doing all of this, or is it a case of "dick move but not illegal"?
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Nov 2, 2016 01:04
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Actually, found a good summary from CNN: http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/01/politics/early-voting-update-black-vote-decreasing/index.html Yes, share of the black vote appears to be down by a few percentage points - but the question is, again, is that because less are voting or because more white people are early voting?
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Nov 2, 2016 01:05
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Probably already been discussed, but my favourite quote that I saw a day or two ago about the Trump campaign was from some old GOP strategist who said something like "He's not running a campaign, he's running a concert tour." Of course the buses didn't work and like a dozen people actually went to vote after the rally, because Trump's only campaign goal is to get as many people into arenas as he can and then say whatever makes them cheer the loudest. Everything else is extraneous. I wouldn't be surprised if he keeps having rallys after the election as a narcissistic idiot speaking tour (Real Talk With Trump! or some other dumb poo poo) because I think they're only part of the political process that he seems to be enthusiastic about and I don't know if he wants to let the high go.
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Nov 2, 2016 01:05
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Captain Invictus posted:Can charges be filed against him for doing all of this, or is it a case of "dick move but not illegal"? I don't think you could present a more textbook example of the Hatch Act unless Comey has secretly been directing Wikileaks this whole time.
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Nov 2, 2016 01:06
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Samuel Clemens posted:IIRC, one of the Bush aides in 2004 called PA "fool's gold for Republicans", which seems like a fair assessment. It looks appealing to the GOP because it awards a lot of electoral votes and the margin is always fairly close, but Philadelphia pretty much ensures it'll remain blue outside of a horribly loopsided election. Yeah they even voted for Kerry in 2004. If the GOP continues to waste resources in PA thinking it's competitive I'm all for it.
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Nov 2, 2016 01:07
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Hey ComradeCosmobot, would you be interested in adding my Twitter list to the OP? https://twitter.com/NewsFedora/lists/corncobs It's a list of people who are supposed to turn into corncobs on election night, but now I'm starting to wonder if it'll be anyone who follows this list that ends up the corncob.  Also: feel free to give me more corncob suggestions. Currently has 25 people. I left Trump off on purpose.
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Nov 2, 2016 01:07
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https://twitter.com/allinwithchris/status/793588342218600448
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Nov 2, 2016 01:07
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Northjayhawk posted:MI (lol Trump, why the gently caress are you wasting time in Michigan?) I was born and raised in Michigan, my social media is a lot of Michigan people, and am wearing a Michigan hoodie right now so hey, I'll give it a crack. Trump almost certainly has to win at least one non-Ohio midwest/rust-belt state to win the election. It has to be either Penn, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Minnesota. It's not likely that he can win any of those, and I certainly wouldn't gamble on him winning any of those. That said, of the four, Michigan is probably the softest target to flip and it does actually make sense that he would campaign there. The state polled heavily for Clinton and then went to Sanders in maybe the largest disparity in polling/results in the election cycle. The state has never really recovered economically post-NAFTA and all the older people I know from my parents generation revile NAFTA and attach it to Clinton. Trade resentments to stoke, Sanders supporters to try and flip, it's a juicier target for Trump than any of the other three targets. Anecdotally, most of my friends in Michigan are split pretty evenly between Clinton, Trump, and "gently caress it third party smoke weed burn it down Gary Johnson time motherfuckers" That said, it's gone solidly Democrat since 1992 and would require some kind of revolutionary sea change to flip from past margins.
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Nov 2, 2016 01:08
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predicto posted:Outperforming Obama's actual vote totals on election day, or out performing Obama's poll standing a week before before the election? Majorian posted:What is this data? Where are you getting any of this from? Again, Elect project, Politico and some other journalists in each state who know their electorate - it was all posted in the morning to the forums. By this point in 2012 the Democrats had overcome the the GOP lead in FL (they still trail this year). They are down in NC compared to 2012 (in part due to voter suppression efforts) while the GOP is up. I don't know if everyone checked out after September and reading about Trump field offices that didn't even exist, but there is no swing state data to support the idea of a Democrat GOTV operation that is doing as well or better than 2012 relative to the GOP.
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Nov 2, 2016 01:08
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attackmole posted:Probably already been discussed, but my favourite quote that I saw a day or two ago about the Trump campaign was from some old GOP strategist who said something like "He's not running a campaign, he's running a concert tour." Of course the buses didn't work and like a dozen people actually went to vote after the rally, because Trump's only campaign goal is to get as many people into arenas as he can and then say whatever makes them cheer the loudest. Everything else is extraneous. I wouldn't be surprised if he keeps having rallys after the election as a narcissistic idiot speaking tour (Real Talk With Trump! or some other dumb poo poo) because I think they're only part of the political process that he seems to be enthusiastic about and I don't know if he wants to let the high go. I don't think that the idea of Trump running a vanity campaign to build his brand seems at all implausible. He can just poo poo out ghost written book after book after this and his built in audience will gobble them up. Also, Trump TV!
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Nov 2, 2016 01:08
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Koyaanisgoatse posted:Also an increasing Latino population means you guys will be that way for the foreseeable future, Central Valley shitholes notwithstanding STOP THE CONGRESS CREATED DUST BOWL BURMA SHAVE
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Nov 2, 2016 01:08
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Well, I did my part. It won't change the electoral college unless we're living in the best timeline, but at least I got to see this adorable guy, who was no stranger to politics or the news. Only 8 more days!
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Nov 2, 2016 01:08
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computer parts posted:I don't think you could present a more textbook example of the Hatch Act unless Comey has secretly been directing Wikileaks this whole time. I wonder if they'll actually go after him for it though. Hopefully! Naked, wholly biased abuse of power like that shouldn't be condoned, and not punishing him for it just encourages future abuse.
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Nov 2, 2016 01:08
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Captain Invictus posted:It's hilarious because right before that happened my mom was all "James Comey isn't that bad a guy, surely he had a reason to release those emails" and then the instant she saw this new one she was like "ok nope he's a fucker trying to manipulate the election" It's blatantly obvious that he's violating the Hatch Act but prosecuting him for it would probably be exceedingly difficult.
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Nov 2, 2016 01:10
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Captain Invictus posted:I wonder if they'll actually go after him for it though. Hopefully! Naked, wholly biased abuse of power like that shouldn't be condoned, and not punishing him for it just encourages future abuse. The thing is, though, they'd have to prove that Comey was acting with deliberate intent to sway the election, as opposed to just being extremely careless. In any case, if the emails turn out to be nothing, it'd be such a massive humiliation for Comey that he'd basically have to resign.
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Nov 2, 2016 01:10
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theflyingorc posted:Actually, found a good summary from CNN:
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Nov 2, 2016 01:11
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attackmole posted:Probably already been discussed, but my favourite quote that I saw a day or two ago about the Trump campaign was from some old GOP strategist who said something like "He's not running a campaign, he's running a concert tour." Of course the buses didn't work and like a dozen people actually went to vote after the rally, because Trump's only campaign goal is to get as many people into arenas as he can and then say whatever makes them cheer the loudest. Everything else is extraneous. I wouldn't be surprised if he keeps having rallys after the election as a narcissistic idiot speaking tour (Real Talk With Trump! or some other dumb poo poo) because I think they're only part of the political process that he seems to be enthusiastic about and I don't know if he wants to let the high go. Hey he can bill it as the TRUE state of the union addresses from the REAL president, not that phony one the (((globalists))) put into fake power.
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Nov 2, 2016 01:11
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Muggsy posted:Thanks! This really does look interesting. I'm taking three math courses already this semester, but I'll definitely consider Statistics as an elective next time. I hated most quantitative classes before taking statistics and I enjoyed statistics so much I ended up teaching and tutoring it at a university level for three years. Probably the most intellectually valuable and monetarily lucrative class I ever ended up falling into. I would recommend it to anyone. It improves your understanding of analysis of data (like this election) and other professional and personal stuff immensely.
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Nov 2, 2016 01:11
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Some republicans are annoyed with Comey. Having them spearhead the persecution would avoid any unsightly optics.
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Nov 2, 2016 01:11
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Tom Guycot posted:Hey he can bill it as the TRUE state of the union addresses from the REAL president, not that phony one the (((globalists))) put into fake power. The new Avignon, Trump Tower
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Nov 2, 2016 01:11
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Tricky D posted:I don't think that the idea of Trump running a vanity campaign to build his brand seems at all implausible. He can just poo poo out ghost written book after book after this and his built in audience will gobble them up. Also, Trump TV! Yeah Trump barely ever had any chance of winning the election and he pretty much ended his campaign a few weeks ago. Now he is just trying to find some market for his brand and make sure people still pay attention to him after the election. The question has always been if dems can pull off a win big enough to cause a political realignment. poo poo is completely broken now and a mild electoral win for Hillary won't be a cause for me to celebrate that much. We didn't crash immediately but we're still going to spend the next 4-8 years spinning apart.
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Nov 2, 2016 01:12
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Noctone posted:It's blatantly obvious that he's violating the Hatch Act but prosecuting him for it would probably be exceedingly difficult. I would be happy with him just getting kicked out.
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Nov 2, 2016 01:12
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