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UV_Catastrophe posted:It's an inevitability that the GOP will eventually regain the presidency, it's just a question of whether or not the party moderates itself to the point where they won't completely wreck the country when they do. "eventually" in this case could conceivably be sometime in the 2030's if they don't win now. When Trump bellows "this is your last chance folks, if we don't win now, it'll never happen again", he's not really wrong as long as you presume "never" is a Trumpian exaggeration.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:43
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Nessus posted:Well Hashem is pervasive throughout all space and as such is an American by residence and therefore our Lord would be one as well, much like Obama. Dual(omni?)citizenship? Boy, I don't know.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:44
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Nothing could possibly be better for Democrats than if the Republicans spend the last week of the election promising to block all Supreme Court nominees and salivating at how fast and hard they're going to impeach Hillary.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:44
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Farchanter posted:How many Republican senators are on board with blocking Clinton's nominee? If Clinton wins, and the Republicans keep the Senate, will enough people cross the aisle that it won't matter?
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Nov 2, 2016 03:44
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computer parts posted:Also this statistic is really funny: Maybe, but does that mean that most Americans who think that things are going well are happy with gridlock and a Donald Trump nomination? It seems foolish to try to pull anything out of that statistic other than "Hispanic voters are not happy right now."
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Nov 2, 2016 03:46
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Farchanter posted:How many Republican senators are on board with blocking Clinton's nominee? If Clinton wins, and the Republicans keep the Senate, will enough people cross the aisle that it won't matter? I do believe that a few senators will try to pressure their colleagues to not confirm anyone for the full 4 years no matter who she picks. I'm not sure how they will try to justify that stance, but I'm sure they will think of something. I do not believe it will be very many people. If the GOP holds the Senate, they might force her to pick judges who are not clearly and obviously liberal (I'm sure she can discern that in interviews though, just not obvious in their history), but they won't be able to hold together 51 senators to vote No for all 4 years, especially since a GOP majority would probably be only 51 seats. Northjayhawk fucked around with this message at 03:50 on Nov 2, 2016 |
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Nov 2, 2016 03:47
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MrBuddyLee posted:Anyone watching Weld on Maddow? Is he advocating for HRC? Weld is an evolutionary vestige of Rockefeller Republicanism that, from time to time, reasserts itself in Massachusetts. He would obviously be a full-throated Hillary supporter if he was not obligated to at least pretend to be the Vice-Presidential candidate for the Libertarian ticket. Obviously, Johnson, as the "dude weed lmao burn it all down" candidate, couldn't give a poo poo.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:47
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Paradoxish posted:Apropos of nothing, you guys really need to stop acting like the Democrats have won a demographic total victory and that it's only a matter of time until the GOP dies along with all the old white people. The major growth trend in US demographics is in the Hispanic and Asian populations. Young Asian voters are increasingly identifying as Democrats, but young Hispanic voters aren't a lock at all. A couple of points from here that are worth keeping in mind: The presumption hinges mostly on the prisoner's dilemma of the GoP where they are essentially forced by their base to enact policy that is poisonous to minority voters. Admittedly these numbers suggest that Latinos are growing dissatisfied with the Dems, but they do not suggest that they are moving to the GoP. In theory, the Republican party could make the policy changes needed to court these voters, but at that point it's hard to imagine how they would be any different policy wise from the centrist Democrats.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:47
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The Shortest Path posted:This is roughly the same as the amount of Hillary supporters who went for Obama in 2008, right? I haven't seen any numbers since the primaries but it was actually higher than the Hillary to Obama support with the exact number being something like 94-96%, I forget the specifics from (jesus christ  ) 6 months ago.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:49
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Tricky D posted:The presumption hinges more on the prisoner's dilemma of the GoP where they are essentially forced by their base to enact policy that is poisonous to minority voters. Admittedly these numbers suggest that Latinos are growing dissatisfied with the Dems, but they do not suggest that they are moving to the GoP. In theory, the Republican party could make the policy changes needed to court these voters, but at that point it's hard to imagine how they would be any different policy wise from the centrist Democrats.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:49
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twistedmentat posted:Anyways, I work a grocery store so I see all the tabloids and holy poo poo the Enquirer is hilarious. It's been nothing but the crazies anti-hillary stuff for ages. It's all "Hillary's secret kill list!' "Hillary's personal Hitman tells all!" "Trump tape faked!: We show the evidence!" "Inside how HIllary is faking the polls to say she's winning" "Emails prove Hillary Did Benghazi/9/11/Pearl Harbour/Lusitania/Shot Huey Long" and then "12 ways Trump will fix America!" "Trump already has a plan to defeat ISIS!" "100 people Trump will find and arrest to end BLM riots!" and so on. Reading between the lines, tabloids painting Hillary as the Dread Tyrant and Trump as the underdog is pretty telling as to who is leading the race (read: it's Hillary. It always has been and always will up through Election Day).
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Nov 2, 2016 03:50
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Paradoxish posted:Maybe, but does that mean that most Americans who think that things are going well are happy with gridlock and a Donald Trump nomination? It seems foolish to try to pull anything out of that statistic other than "Hispanic voters are not happy right now." There was gridlock in 2012 as well, for several years before. That doesn't explain 20% more Hispanics not liking how the country's going.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:50
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Gunder posted:How big are the alt-right really? They seem pretty omnipresent online, but I have a suspicion that this doesn't translate to real word voting power. It depends on how you use the label Alt-Right. To quote their reddit: quote:If you only know of the alt right from The_Donald, then do not know what the alt right is. You probably think it means something along the lines of cultural libertarianism or just being "more conservative". It doesn't. It doesn't mean anti-establishment right leaning politics either. We do not agree with Conservatives ideologically and we are not people who are just trying to do conservativism "better". A lot of people think "alt-right" is a catchall for modern non-traditional conservatism. What it actually is is essentially a modernized white supremacy movement which originated in 4chan /pol/, that does not include a lot of the self-stylized "alternative media" that often gets conflated with such. To that end, it is not nearly as large as it seems especially since its entire base is online.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:50
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GreyjoyBastard posted:Would you like to make a prediction Inferior Third Season posted:Yeah, this is the thing people don't seem to get. This election only has one thing at stake: the Supreme Court. And for the Democrats, this means needing both the presidency and the Senate. The presidency alone does nothing
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Nov 2, 2016 03:52
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Again, there is zero evidence that Hispanics are favorable to GOP policy in any iteration, not just the "deport the rapists" column.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:52
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Nessus posted:The policy concession of "not nominating someone who called them, as a class, rapists and wants to deport most of them" eh A bridge too far for the current GoP base, I'm afraid.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:52
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computer parts posted:Again, there is zero evidence that Hispanics are favorable to GOP policy in any iteration, not just the "deport the rapists" column. What about the cuban expats?
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Nov 2, 2016 03:53
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Farchanter posted:How many Republican senators are on board with blocking Clinton's nominee? If Clinton wins, and the Republicans keep the Senate, will enough people cross the aisle that it won't matter? No, because they'll just never bring it up in the first place just like with Garland right now. There could be a super majority of Senators who want to hold hearings and confirm Garland but that means nothing as long as the GOP leadership just doesn't process it in the first place. If the GOP control the Senate there's basically nothing the Dems can do to push a SCOTUS nominee to get a hearing. Paradoxish posted:Apropos of nothing, you guys really need to stop acting like the Democrats have won a demographic total victory and that it's only a matter of time until the GOP dies along with all the old white people. The major growth trend in US demographics is in the Hispanic and Asian populations. Young Asian voters are increasingly identifying as Democrats, but young Hispanic voters aren't a lock at all. A couple of points from here that are worth keeping in mind: I said back in the primaries that Marco Rubio was hands down the worst possible opponent for the Democrats, and precisely for reasons like this. Doesn't matter that he isn't the sharpest tool in the box, he'd have done better than Trump did in the debates and having a few competent handlers frame him as an energetic latino conservative leader would be more than enough. Toss in some rear end in a top hat like Kaisch for 'experience' or whatever and yeah Clinton would've almost certainly been hosed.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:53
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Sharkopath posted:What about the cuban expats? Literal plantation owners whose grand/children are largely conforming to generic Hispanic viewpoints on society.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:54
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Sharkopath posted:What about the cuban expats? Cuban expats, while decisively Republican, do not represent a sizeable portion of the electorate outside of South Florida.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:55
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Evil Fluffy posted:
He wouldn't have had a meltdown like Donald did, but Rubio is not a good debater, he would have looked like a moron
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Nov 2, 2016 03:55
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CapnAndy posted:I mean, if he wouldn't, I would? I'll bet any amount you like that there is no more oppo, there is no October surprise, this is it for our side Sorry, I was genuinely unclear. I was asking for an election prediction. I concur that there is probably nothing meaningfully new coming out. (Weird FBI bullshit is not unexpected, exactly, it's just new and very questionably legal.)
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Nov 2, 2016 03:55
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Northjayhawk posted:I do believe that a few senators will try to pressure their colleagues to not confirm anyone for the full 4 years no matter who she picks. I'm not sure how they will try to justify that stance, but I'm sure they will think of something. It does not take 51 republicans to block a Justice. It takes one, sitting as chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:56
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Spiffster posted:gently caress MY STATE DO NOT SCREW UP THE SENATE!!! This has been a given for a few weeks now - Bayh is a terrible candidate. It's not worth arzying over if the outcome is already known. We don't need Bayh to retake the senate do we? If so lol
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Nov 2, 2016 03:56
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MODE ACTIVE TILL ELECTION NOW!
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computer parts posted:Again, there is zero evidence that Hispanics are favorable to GOP policy in any iteration, not just the "deport the rapists" column. GWB got 40% in 2004. He's basically what the GOP needs to become, minus the war baggage. They don't actually need to win an outright majority of hispanic voters, they need to stop the bleeding in this quickly-growing demographic, and then the white men can take them over the line.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:56
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Evil Fluffy posted:No, because they'll just never bring it up in the first place just like with Garland right now. Does not matter if they can't get through the primaries, which they can't as long as they're beholden to the crazy white racists
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Nov 2, 2016 03:57
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Tricky D posted:In theory, the Republican party could make the policy changes needed to court these voters, but at that point it's hard to imagine how they would be any different policy wise from the centrist Democrats. It's hard to say, but voters aren't necessarily rational and it may be enough to just dial back the toxic rhetoric so that minorities aren't voting against them in such overwhelming numbers. For what it's worth, I really didn't intend my post to be taken as some kind of hugely pessimistic outlook on the future. The point is that it's incredibly important that we start taking back Congress (and state legislatures too) so that Democrats can actually do stuff. There's a really frustrating belief in this thread that if Democrats just hold the line for long enough the Republicans will all go away and then we can finally start to govern. computer parts posted:There was gridlock in 2012 as well, for several years before. That doesn't explain 20% more Hispanics not liking how the country's going. It's only 7%. The higher statistic is Hispanics born in the US vs. immigrants. In any case:  It was going up slightly anyway, but there aren't enough data points here for a trend and there was definitely a slightly larger uptick in 2016.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:57
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Shifty Pony posted:It does not take 51 republicans to block a Justice. It takes one, sitting as chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. Grassley is not going to do that. It was difficult for him to do 1 year.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:58
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TheGreatGnocchi posted:You're all a bunch of loving babies. Quit your Arzying. I've already toxxed over in C-SPAM, but same.  for  here.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:58
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has that outlier poll saying 28% of registered republicans voted clinton in early voting in florida been discussed yet?
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Nov 2, 2016 04:00
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FuzzySlippers posted:Yeah there was that magic 2 years in the 60s when LBJ got a ton accomplished. If HRC doesn't flail around stupidly 2 year with mandate would be huge. IE, learn from Obama's mistakes and don't sideline everything for a loving mythical Grand Bargain with a hostile Congress.
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Nov 2, 2016 04:00
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Deified Data posted:We don't need Bayh to retake the senate do we? If so lol IN is one of six remaining competitive Senate races - the others are NV, NC, PA, NH, and MO (and that's if you give Feingold the benefit of the doubt in WI). Outlook is grim.
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Nov 2, 2016 04:01
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Northjayhawk posted:GWB got 40% in 2004. He's basically what the GOP needs to become, minus the war baggage. Gay Marriage was a wedge issue in 2004. Not so much now. http://www.pewresearch.org/2008/04/01/an-overview-of-the-samesex-marriage-debate/ quote:According to an August 2007 survey by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life and the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 55% of Americans oppose gay marriage, with 36% favoring it. But those with a high frequency of church attendance oppose it by a substantially wider margin (73% in opposition vs. 21% in favor). Opposition among white evangelicals, regardless of frequency of church attendance, is even higher — at 81%. A majority of black Protestants (64%) and Latino Catholics (52%)3 also oppose gay marriage, as do pluralities of white, non-Hispanic Catholics (49%) and white mainline Protestants (47%). Only among Americans without a religious affiliation does a majority (60%) express support.
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Nov 2, 2016 04:02
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Mel Mudkiper posted:one more
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Nov 2, 2016 04:03
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Paradoxish posted:It's hard to say, but voters aren't necessarily rational and it may be enough to just dial back the toxic rhetoric so that minorities aren't voting against them in such overwhelming numbers. Maybe so, but when you start to get into the whole 'can voters actually make sound decisions in the booth?' line of thinking, you're already on the path to delegitimizing democracy. So I prefer not to walk that road.
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Nov 2, 2016 04:06
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Tricky D posted:The presumption hinges mostly on the prisoner's dilemma of the GoP where they are essentially forced by their base to enact policy that is poisonous to minority voters. Admittedly these numbers suggest that Latinos are growing dissatisfied with the Dems, but they do not suggest that they are moving to the GoP. In theory, the Republican party could make the policy changes needed to court these voters, but at that point it's hard to imagine how they would be any different policy wise from the centrist Democrats. I honestly don't know what can change to make the GOP more palatable on the national stage. This election has proved the base doesn't give two shits about one single piece of long standing GOP economic policy. They are in it for guns, gays, racism, fetuses, and their own jobs, nothing more. The problem is those core issues, outside of their jobs, are just not winning issues, they're dying out. So what do you make a transformation on? You change those and you now have no party outside of bow-tie wearing college republicans.
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Nov 2, 2016 04:08
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Paradoxish posted:It's hard to say, but voters aren't necessarily rational and it may be enough to just dial back the toxic rhetoric so that minorities aren't voting against them in such overwhelming numbers. All the Republican Party has to do is stop making GBS threads on immigration. Latino voters are extremely socially conservative.
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Nov 2, 2016 04:09
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"The Shortest Path" posted:A lot of people think "alt-right" is a catchall for modern non-traditional conservatism. What it actually is is essentially a modernized white supremacy movement which originated in 4chan /pol/, that does not include a lot of the self-stylized "alternative media" that often gets conflated with such. To that end, it is not nearly as large as it seems especially since its entire base is online. This cannot be overstated. Calling it the alt right ties this new political movement in with traditional economic conservatism when it should really be seen as a social conservative movement. I haven't seen much evidence at all that the so-called "alt right" is a low taxes small government thing. More a response to the democratic party adopting increasingly radical social progressivism. When this trump bullshit is shaken and there is no more republican party (i hope) it needs a new name. MattD1zzl3 fucked around with this message at 04:13 on Nov 2, 2016 |
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Nov 2, 2016 04:09
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BiohazrD posted:All the Republican Party has to do is stop making GBS threads on immigration. Latino voters are extremely socially conservative. In yet another case of "Republican policies actually are pretty anti-american and weaken the nation", immigration is also what's sparing the USA from the demographic crash that Europe and Asia are going through
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Nov 2, 2016 04:10
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Tom Guycot posted:I honestly don't know what can change to make the GOP more palatable on the national stage. This election has proved the base doesn't give two shits about one single piece of long standing GOP economic policy. They are in it for guns, gays, racism, fetuses, and their own jobs, nothing more. The problem is those core issues, outside of their jobs, are just not winning issues, they're dying out. So what do you make a transformation on? You change those and you now have no party outside of bow-tie wearing college republicans. That's kinda my point. It would be completely different part at that point, so why would anyone assume that it's going to happen?
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Nov 2, 2016 04:10
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