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Le Saboteur posted:Didn't that voting map say polls close in Florida at like 7pm EST? If you're in line before 7 PM, you get to vote. Some lines are hours long.
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Nov 3, 2016 17:40
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theflyingorc posted:edit: Also, approximately half of the Florida total electorate has voted. Seeing stuff like this is kind of annoying. I live in VA, which has no formal early voting. The best you can do is absentee vote and fill in a reason vaguely related to work or something, but the process goes out of its way to tell you that's illegal. It's not like that stops a lot of people, but seeing that allowing polls to open suddenly opens the floodgates to over half the electorate, when we constantly complain about the lack of turnout, is just irritating to me. I'm more than aware why it doesn't get changed, that doesn't stop it from looking really stupid.
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Nov 3, 2016 17:41
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Periodiko posted:Is that as devastating from Trump-in-Florida as it seems? Like, pseudo "exit polls" (not sure of name) like that should be more accurate than normal polling, and that's a pretty huge lead, no? No. Assuming Clinton's firewall holds (and there's no reason to believe it shouldn't), Trump literally can't afford to lose a single swing state.
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Nov 3, 2016 17:41
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Periodiko posted:Is that as devastating from Trump-in-Florida as it seems? Like, pseudo "exit polls" (not sure of name) like that should be more accurate than normal polling, and that's a pretty huge lead, no? Trump cannot win without Florida unless he takes Pennsylvania and Ohio and like everything else. The most conservative estimates have Hillary "safe" in some ~241-242 EVs. Florida is worth 29, getting her to 270 by itself. It's worth noting that this particular poll is not from a major pollster and I know nothing of their methodology(they offer both online and phone services) - but absentee and early voters cannot be improperly accounted for by an LV screen. Take it with a grain of salt, but it's good news.
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Nov 3, 2016 17:41
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Le Saboteur posted:Didn't that voting map say polls close in Florida at like 7pm EST? people who are still standing in line can vote, which is likely to happen in the crucial urban districts which will determine if florida goes blue florida isn't that important this round though, pennsylvania is more important
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Nov 3, 2016 17:41
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Periodiko posted:Is that as devastating from Trump-in-Florida as it seems? Like, pseudo "exit polls" (not sure of name) like that should be more accurate than normal polling, and that's a pretty huge lead, no? It's hard to say if they are more accurate. On the one hand, everyone of those is a guaranteed vote (unless the people lie for some weird reason.) So they are more than likely voters. But on the other hand, this reduces the sample size significantly and makes statistical errors more likely. And we don't know exactly how party affiliation is correlated with the time of voting. In theory if all Democrats prefer early voting, while all Republicans prefer election day, such polls would become absolutely meaningless.
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Nov 3, 2016 17:41
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weekly font posted:In Jersey we have something like this in regards to a gas tax and I have no real clue how to vote for it. Me neither. The only thing that swayed me in either direction is that basically every person that is entrenched in Trenton who got us into this pension/budget mess is endorsing a yes vote. I'll probably vote no just because they haven't shown any ability to properly manage the exorbitant amount of taxes we already pay.
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Nov 3, 2016 17:41
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Part of me wants New Hampshire to go for Trump while Arizona goes blue as proof that NH is the libertarian shithole that I think it is.
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Nov 3, 2016 17:42
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Cross posting this because it's adorable: https://twitter.com/TODAYshow/status/794040789051514880/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
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Nov 3, 2016 17:42
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boner confessor posted:was obama a weak candidate? you also have to consider this position of yours in the context of unprecedented and rising levels of partisanship I don't think so because the people who wouldn't vote for him on the basis of racism wouldn't have voted for any neutral democratic candidate anyways. Hillary is losing middle class voters and male voters very badly and there are a lot of those.
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Nov 3, 2016 17:42
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What time do people expect the election to be called on the 8th? I'm thinking 11 pm central at the earliest.
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Nov 3, 2016 17:42
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Speaking of NH being a Libertarian shithole, the poll that had Trump +4 on Clinton in NH was a head-to-head and did not include Johnson
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Nov 3, 2016 17:43
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Spacebump posted:What time do people expect the election to be called on the 8th? I'm thinking 11 pm central at the earliest. yeah, 11pm est is when it will be called if it's a landslide
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Nov 3, 2016 17:44
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Spacebump posted:What time do people expect the election to be called on the 8th? I'm thinking 11 pm central at the earliest. They never call earlier than polls closing on the West Coast If NC or OH goes blue by then, they will probably call it
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Nov 3, 2016 17:44
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weekly font posted:In Jersey we have something like this in regards to a gas tax and I have no real clue how to vote for it. In Florida, we had a similar thing about solar power. The wording of the amendment makes it sound like it will make things easier for solar power to get established in the state, but if you look into who proposed and backed it, it's the existing electric companies trying to block solar power from becoming a widespread thing in Florida via state constitutional amendment.
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Nov 3, 2016 17:45
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WampaLord posted:Cross posting this because it's adorable: *BREAKING* Clinton cedes Ohio to Trump.
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Nov 3, 2016 17:45
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cant cook creole bream posted:And we don't know exactly how party affiliation is correlated with the time of voting. In theory if all Democrats prefer early voting, while all Republicans prefer election day, such polls would become absolutely meaningless. Depends on the state too. Republicans usually do the most early voting in Texas, but so far it's Democrats that have been turning out more, with a big jump in hispanic turnout.
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Nov 3, 2016 17:45
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Spacebump posted:What time do people expect the election to be called on the 8th? I'm thinking 11 pm central at the earliest. If she wins NC solidly that's probably pretty close to true? If she doesn't win NC solidly they might wait until after we know about Nevada which is gonna be laaaaaaaate.
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Nov 3, 2016 17:45
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WampaLord posted:Cross posting this because it's adorable: So much for the Cleveland vote.
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Nov 3, 2016 17:46
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Spacebump posted:What time do people expect the election to be called on the 8th? I'm thinking 11 pm central at the earliest. Depends, if NH, VA and PA are able to be called relatively early then its over.
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Nov 3, 2016 17:46
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Why are New Hampshire and Vermont so different in terms of Democratic reliability? I know nothing about the two states other than they are a similar size and shape, adjacent, and located in New England.
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Nov 3, 2016 17:45
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+1 for Hillary/Feingold/Solen/Binger, bitches. 
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Nov 3, 2016 17:46
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boner confessor posted:hillary is a strong candidate, she's just been uniquely hated by the right wing for so long that people uncritically accept this hatred as truth This is one thing I think Obama failed to disarm. Like he just has to say something like "You know the BS about me for the last 8 years is BS, something about my birth cert. Well if they can lie for 8 years, they can like for 30 years."
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Nov 3, 2016 17:47
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Mind_Taker posted:Why are New Hampshire and Vermont so different in terms of Democratic reliability? I know nothing about the two states other than they are a similar size and shape, adjacent, and located in New England. Vermont is a SUPER weird state.
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Nov 3, 2016 17:47
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boner confessor posted:people who believe this have poor perception and understanding of the world, so poor that they do not realize there are large gaps in their understanding of reality. it's the same as infants not having object permanence, if a thing is not in plain sight then it does not exist. therefore, if no black people are protesting in the streets then racism does not exist. black people protested in the 60's with that king fellow, but then the government ended racism and the protests stopped. now the blacks are protesting again because obama is making racism happen again Spacebump posted:Social Media plus more people having cameras has exposed many to racial issues they didn't know about. Instead of thinking about changes in tech, people just blamed the black President they didn't like. Ugh the worst thing about this lack of awareness is if you were to try and explain they would probably shut down and ignore you. The other thing is that even with our weak form of federalism, Obama has such limited power here anyway. When I hear the demand that he fix that or fix black community problems before police shootings, I have a hard time wrapping my brain around that too. Do they expect him to parachute into every municipality and fix the police force himself?
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Nov 3, 2016 17:47
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theflyingorc posted:If she wins NC solidly that's probably pretty close to true? NC is a good measure, but I am not sure it's the only one, but yeah without NC his map is incredibly difficult and it's hard to believe he'd be able to win NV/CO if he's lost NC.
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Nov 3, 2016 17:48
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WampaLord posted:Cross posting this because it's adorable: I'm gonna have this exact same reaction on the 8th
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Nov 3, 2016 17:48
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Mel Mudkiper posted:Speaking of NH being a Libertarian shithole, the poll that had Trump +4 on Clinton in NH was a head-to-head and did not include Johnson Yeah. That whole "Freestate Project" flopped hard and the Libertarians there basically just turned into bitter Republicans (they were always bitter republicans). It's actually a freaky, fascinating thing to read about.
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Nov 3, 2016 17:48
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Apraxin posted:
Ah man. I wanted to see Trump implode live on air.
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Nov 3, 2016 17:49
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https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/794216772459229184 Clinton doing better with Hispanics than Obama (but seriously, the 19% of Hispanics voting for Trump are the dumbest people on the planet) This is good for Nevada and Florida.
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Nov 3, 2016 17:49
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Apraxin posted:https://youtu.be/wVkgCkw6rq8?t=2576 drat this is some grade-A Obama right here.
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Nov 3, 2016 17:50
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Libertine posted:I don't think so because the people who wouldn't vote for him on the basis of racism wouldn't have voted for any neutral democratic candidate anyways. Hillary is losing middle class voters and male voters very badly and there are a lot of those. This argument is a lot more valid-in fact, is only valid- if you #RepealThe19th.
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Nov 3, 2016 17:50
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Militree posted:Part of me wants New Hampshire to go for Trump while Arizona goes blue as proof that NH is the libertarian shithole that I think it is. Travel more?
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Nov 3, 2016 17:50
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http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/11/02/alabama_secretary_of_state_says_more_voting_would_cheapen_the_work_of_civil.htmlquote:Merrill explained his thoughts in an interview with a progressive voting rights initiative called Answering the Call. Asked about automatic registration for people who turn 18, Merrill responded, “I don’t think that just because your birthday comes around, that you ought to be registered to vote.” He then listed a litany of voting rights advocates—including Rep. John Lewis, Martin Luther King, and Rosa Parks—and declared:
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Nov 3, 2016 17:50
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:NC is a good measure, but I am not sure it's the only one, but yeah without NC his map is incredibly difficult and it's hard to believe he'd be able to win NV/CO if he's lost NC. I'm not sure whether or not the networks will call it, but I'm willing to personally be certain if she wins NC. I'm really, really glad that my vote is contributing to that happening. 
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Nov 3, 2016 17:50
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Mind_Taker posted:Why are New Hampshire and Vermont so different in terms of Democratic reliability? I know nothing about the two states other than they are a similar size and shape, adjacent, and located in New England. Vermont is weird and New Hampshire had an event happen there known as the "Free State Project". Basically: Libertarians decided they wanted to try and game some low population state's political rules and send 20k people in to basically take it over and make it into some Libertopia. It failed hard, but ended up with enough people moving to get some demo shifts if I remember. It's still "on going" and they have 20k people signed up to move, with like 2500 already moved there to "Set up".
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Nov 3, 2016 17:52
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CNN decided to respond to the "post the map" challenge, I guess: All of those look incredibly unlikely, but whatevs
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Nov 3, 2016 17:52
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Welp, Trump telling his crowd that he'll stop America being Islamized like France and Germany; his friend who used to go to Paris every year ('oh the city of light, oh paree, paree, he used to say') doesn't go now because "it's not Paris anymore". Also that he has tremendous support from 'the women' because he'll keep them secure and stop generations of Islamic terror (terrorist children, I guess?) infiltrating their schools. Then he went on a derail about how great his support is with minorities, put on a mocking voice to address the media pool and said "The Protected One isn't being protected." I think we might get off-the-leash Trump for the last few days of the campaign.
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Nov 3, 2016 17:52
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 The map I almost posted last Friday when people started freaking out about Comey is looking more and more possible.
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Nov 3, 2016 17:52
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The map I almost posted last Friday when people started freaking out about Comey is looking more and more possible.
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Nov 3, 2016 17:52
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