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Endorph posted:what were ancient roman get out the vote efforts like HILLARY Friends, Americans, countrymen, lend me your retweets; I come to bury Obama, not to praise him. The evil that men do lives after them; The good is oft interred with their bones; So let it be with Obama. The noble Trump Hath told you Obama was ambitious: If it were so, it was a grievous fault, And grievously hath Obama answer'd it. Here, under leave of Trump and the rest-- For Trump is an honourable man; So are they all, all honourable men-- Come I to speak in Obama's funeral. He was my friend, faithful and just to me: But Trump says he was ambitious; And Trump is an honourable man. He hath brought many businesses home to America Whose taxess did the general coffers fill: Did this in Obama seem ambitious? When that the poor have cried, Obama hath wept: Ambition should be made of sterner stuff: Yet Trump says he was ambitious; And Trump is an honourable man. You all did see that on the White House I thrice presented him a kingly crown, Which he did thrice refuse: was this ambition? Yet Trump says he was ambitious; And, sure, he is an honourable man. I speak not to disprove what Trump spoke, But here I am to speak what I do know. You all did love him once, not without cause: What cause withholds you then, to mourn for him? O judgment! thou art fled to brutish beasts, And men have lost their reason. Bear with me; My heart is in the coffin there with Obama, And I must pause till it come back to me.
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Nov 4, 2016 22:31
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Donkwich posted:Is Mother Jones also supported by a freakish cult that I don't know about  Liberals.
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Nov 4, 2016 22:32
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GalacticAcid posted:
Agentically?
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Nov 4, 2016 22:32
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it's a pretty common word?
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Necc0 posted:They didn't find a bug 
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Nov 4, 2016 22:31
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ReV VAdAUL posted:Is there enough time for NC to appeal this? There's one working day before election day. Less than zero chance they can even schedule a hearing, let alone get a verdict.
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Nov 4, 2016 22:32
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Julio Cruz posted:There's one working day before election day. Less than zero chance they can even schedule a hearing, let alone get a verdict. Excellent.
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Nov 4, 2016 22:34
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greatn posted:Why DOES Clinton get these weirdos like Podesta and Penn in her operations? She has a lot of great people, but I feel like Obama didn't have these problems with staffers sending optically bad emails and looking dumb. Of course maybe he would have if he had been hacked. Oh there were those of us that said some real dumb poo poo, we just weren't hacked. Bernie was not kidding when he said if they saw his emails it would look bad too - Bet there would be the same tons of snark, people blowing off steam, etc. Editing since I realized it read like I was Sander's staff this cycle when I wasn't,
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Nov 4, 2016 22:34
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RVProfootballer posted:You are conflating polling errors and win probability errors. They are not the same thing, as I tried to explain to you earlier. Win likelihood is a function of what you think the polling error is. And goons make way too much of the electoral college vs popular vote thing. When they're generally highly correlated.
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Nov 4, 2016 22:35
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Cingulate posted:Am I understanding this correctly? Not trying to argue, I'll not try to rebut you if you correct me. I don't know about anyone else, but my biggest qualm is that "better" can mean a tremendous amount of things and packing the entirety of the worldwide human condition into a single word is so absurd as to be virtually meaningless. The other problem is that it implies a sort of inevitability - if you claim that things have always just gotten better with the passage of time over the entirety of human history, that comes with the unspoken addendum that things will inevitably continue to get better regardless of what people do. And of course, the basic assumption that everything has gotten better forever can definitely be challenged - for one thing, industrialization has allowed mass torture and murder on an unprecedented scale.
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Nov 4, 2016 22:34
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Eugene V. Dabs posted:Thank god for the courts So what happens if, like, McCrory decides to cancel the election or gets the lege to ram through some kind of thing like South Carolina had in the past, where the state's electors are determined by the legislators? To be clear for those with weak stomachs, this is mere speculation, I am just curious what the fallout of something like that would actually be. Obviously the Republicans would endorse it as good because it helps them, if perhaps with some defections...
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Nov 4, 2016 22:35
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FlamingLiberal posted:Chelsea Manning apparently tried to kill herself again after she was sentenced to solitary confinement for a previous suicide attempt in jail. I know. Just thinking about what it must be like to be in her shoes right now gives me the willies. 
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Nov 4, 2016 22:36
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Nessus posted:This is why they're so desperate to stop HRC from making these appointments. Any appointments. We might get republican clause jurisprudence for the first time in history... which would lead to whatever came from the circuit being "affirmed by an equally divided court."
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Nov 4, 2016 22:37
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Eugene V. Dabs posted:I'd say probably another way to do it would be by more fine-grained demography and relative support among those splits (education, sex, race, geography, etc.) for each candidate including voting trends. You're also introducing a bootstrap problem here - you want to use the model to estimate candidate support, but you need to know candidate support (per demographic!) to build the model ...
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Nov 4, 2016 22:37
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Main Paineframe posted:I don't know about anyone else, but my biggest qualm is that "better" can mean a tremendous amount of things and packing the entirety of the worldwide human condition into a single word is so absurd as to be virtually meaningless. The other problem is that it implies a sort of inevitability - if you claim that things have always just gotten better with the passage of time over the entirety of human history, that comes with the unspoken addendum that things will inevitably continue to get better regardless of what people do. And of course, the basic assumption that everything has gotten better forever can definitely be challenged - for one thing, industrialization has allowed mass torture and murder on an unprecedented scale.
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Nov 4, 2016 22:38
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JohnCompany posted:We might get republican clause jurisprudence for the first time in history... which would lead to whatever came from the circuit being "affirmed by an equally divided court."
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Nov 4, 2016 22:39
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WampaLord posted:Agentically? Just for you WampaLord I'll summarize in small words: bush sucked rear end on purpose
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Nov 4, 2016 22:41
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Kubrick posted:These leaked emails are "humanizing" Clinton more than all the silly market research. Honestly, I wish she had all these out months ago. Besides showing her as human despite the decades of attacks, the Republican narrative only works if they can keep up a cloud of vague dread over her head to try to distract from their own evil. Without that, they have so little even their voters would get tired of hearing it.
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Nov 4, 2016 22:41
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Apparently Republicans are really pushing don't let children be raped because of Transgender laws https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YD1_NMMMsu4 Probably the most infuriating political commercial ever. http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2016/11/04/pro-republican-ad-depicts-little-girl-getting-raped-because-of-transgender-equality/ quote:“Extremist LGBT activists want to make an example of Republican Gov. Pat McCrory because of his support of the common-sense idea that men should not be in women’s bathrooms. But we are stopping them.
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Nov 4, 2016 22:42
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Agean90 posted:A thing to remember is that the concept of race as we know it is very much a product of the late 18/early 19th century. While stereotypes are a thing (Theres graffiti that shows that the Black men have large dicks stereotype goes back to ancient rome at least) its not like you have Romans declaring the Carthaginians biologically inferior, fit only for serving their betters. although i do distinctly remember plato's republic talking about how certain kinds of people are 'natural slaves.' women, for example. it seems like there's this feedback loop between taking slaves for seemingly strictly 'economical' reasons and needing to justify it on moral grounds which in turn because an imperative to maintaining/expanding the practice. no one wants to think they're doing a bad thing, even as they grind the neck of their fellow human beings into the dirt
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Nov 4, 2016 22:43
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Nessus posted:Well I mean like, I know McCrory got a special session together to pass HB2, right? What would stop him from doing that to try to save the Republican chances here? I have the feeling if he pulled this it would somehow be blamed on Hillary, of course There's no way he gets enough legislators back for a special session in the last moments of the election. Aside from the horribly unpopular nature of such a move, if they fail to get a quorum all they did was paint a target on their back and lose valuable campaigning time.
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Nov 4, 2016 22:43
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Dirt posted:The plot thickens: what..  This. loving. Election.
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Nov 4, 2016 22:44
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greatn posted:Why DOES Clinton get these weirdos like Podesta and Penn in her operations? She has a lot of great people, but I feel like Obama didn't have these problems with staffers sending optically bad emails and looking dumb. Of course maybe he would have if he had been hacked. in her defense her inner circle is largely free these days of the real scumbags and weirdos who used to orbit the clintons, and lot of that stems from bill's time as an active politician the short answer is southern politics is extremely ugly stuff and you had to get the roughest operators to win and the clintons are extremely loyal to their people
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Nov 4, 2016 22:44
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Nessus posted:Well I mean like, I know McCrory got a special session together to pass HB2, right? What would stop him from doing that to try to save the Republican chances here? I have the feeling if he pulled this it would somehow be blamed on Hillary, of course Not sure anything structural would stop him beforehand since there's no federal constitutional rule on how a state distributes EVs (caveat: I know nothing about the NC constitution at all) - this is why, e.g. Maine or Nebraska can distribute votes by district, and why the interstate popular vote compact would be legal (assuming it was approved as an interstate compact by Congress). There are, however, massive social safeguards that should prevent this, but we assume they don't apply if McCrory means business. Once he did sign this legislation, there would absolutely be court challenges on a number of grounds: due process and the guarantee/republican clause come immediately to mind. Without digressing into a lecture on substantive due process, and a more speculative lecture on the modern content of the republican clause (if any), the appeals would go to the 4th Circuit, then would be appealed en banc, then would go to SCOTUS, to be affirmed 4-4.
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Nov 4, 2016 22:46
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"MoD seriously misled me on Saudi arms sales, says Vince Cable"quote:The Ministry of Defence has been accused of “seriously misleading” a cabinet minister in a desperate effort to get export licences for British-made missiles for use by Saudi Arabia in its controversial bombing campaign in Yemen.
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Nov 4, 2016 22:46
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this loving election
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Nov 4, 2016 22:46
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Hollismason posted:Apparently Republicans are really pushing don't let children be raped because of Transgender laws that's nothing. this has been running nonstop for weeks https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RODwl5QS9W4
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Nov 4, 2016 22:47
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Julio Cruz posted:There's one working day before election day. Less than zero chance they can even schedule a hearing, let alone get a verdict. I don't know anything about 4th Circuit federal practice, but I would guess there's absolutely a chance that the 4th Circuit could issue an emergency stay. My Con Law professor described the 4th Circuit as "where rights go to die."
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Nov 4, 2016 22:47
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Young Hegelian posted:I don't know anything about 4th Circuit federal practice, but I would guess there's absolutely a chance that the 4th Circuit could issue an emergency stay. My Con Law professor described the 4th Circuit as "where rights go to die." They struck down NC's voter ID law though so they're not completely terrible
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Nov 4, 2016 22:47
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Things continue to look positive in Nevada: https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/794648720419803136
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Nov 4, 2016 22:48
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canepazzo posted:https://twitter.com/AriBerman/status/794652203546013696 Yeah I'm sure the NC GOP won't just sit on this until Wednesday and then say "oh sorry we couldn't restore their rights in time... darn I guess that means we get to keep these vote results that're more favorable than they could've been." NC's right wing assholes lost this fight but the real question is if they've managed to do enough damage to not lose their stranglehold on the state government.
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Nov 4, 2016 22:48
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It'd be great to see NC go blue and get a Democratic Governor, but I haven't been paying attention to the latest in the Governors race other than that the Governor is a total shithead no one likes.
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Nov 4, 2016 22:49
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Gyges posted:HILLARY So is Huma Cleopatra in this scheme?
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Nov 4, 2016 22:49
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ReV VAdAUL posted:Is there enough time for NC to appeal this? nope, but the county boards of election just won't do it
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Nov 4, 2016 22:49
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Did anyone post that PPP has Hillary +5 in NH? I think they also had her plus 3 in NC.
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Nov 4, 2016 22:48
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PerniciousKnid posted:Win likelihood is a function of what you think the polling error is. And goons make way too much of the electoral college vs popular vote thing. When they're generally highly correlated. One or both of us is confused about what the other is arguing. Hypothetical here, but a polling error of 2 points that reduces Hillary's lead from 3 points to 1 point is a massive polling error. It cuts her advantage by two thirds. A 1 point lead in the popular vote gives you an overwhelming probability of winning the presidency. That is the exact opposite of thinking the electoral college and popular vote are not highly correlated. If you can show me somehow that a confident, aggregated estimate of a polling lead of 1-3 points empirically does not have a high win probability, I would like to see it. That's the kind of thing that could convince me 538 is in the right realm of uncertainty. What you've shown so far is that polling errors of 0.5-3 points have still let the polls get the winner right. Somewhat of a tangent, but I also suspect polling error magnitude is not independent of the difference between the candidates. Has anyone seen data specifically on that? I feel like 538 blog or somewhere looking at polling errors over the last x elections might have given some hint about this. Let me see if I can find it...
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Nov 4, 2016 22:49
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I finished taking my professional exam (LEED AP BD+C) and now can spend my time mindlessly reading this thread again. Now my huge amounts of anxiety are only coming from one source, lovely polls.
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Nov 4, 2016 22:49
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Hollismason posted:I haven't been paying attention to the latest in the Governors race other than that the Governor is a total shithead no one likes. mayor mccheese just announced a horse show sponsored by the company a former lackey runs that'll apparently bring in infinity more moneys than the nba all star game also they spent about 8 million in bribes to get a couple hundred jobs in charlotte
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Nov 4, 2016 22:51
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Cingulate posted:I'm not so much wondering what might be the facts at hand, but why it is controversial. Maybe it's wrong, let us leave that aside - why is it offensive for me to claim it? I did not find it offensive, fwiw. I just think there are many measures by which we have not had consistent progress over time and that they are still the kinds of things we are trying to work on today as societies, so they are relevant.
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Nov 4, 2016 22:51
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https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/794657746972975104 hmmmmm.
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Nov 4, 2016 22:51
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I'd honestly be kind of mad if my boss was on a computer and emailed me to remind them to do something when they get home. You're on a PC in the 21st century Grandma. There's dozens of ways to remind yourself to do something when you get home without having your assistant call you! Google "The Good Wife Schedule" It's faster than emailing someone.
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