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Nirvikalpa posted:Are you guys not worried about Clinton falling behind in the polls? Clinton's ahead in the polls.
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Nov 4, 2016 14:37
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Fitzy Fitz posted:Clinton's ahead in the polls. Yes, but the first derivative is negative. I extrapolate a TRUMP victory on November 28th. BUY BUY BUY!
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Nov 4, 2016 15:27
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Don't bet on polls. Romney won the polls look at him stuck being a rich rear end in a top hat instead of president. I am max Florida Hilldawg. Free money!
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Nov 4, 2016 15:27
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Nirvikalpa posted:Are you guys not worried about Clinton falling behind in the polls? nope 
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Nov 4, 2016 15:33
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Yeah, the one thing Shook Nate has been weirdly correct about is the poll sine wave. She's fine with overall polling. It's the state results that are the telling factors, and right now the only polls that matter for most states are the EV returns.
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Nov 4, 2016 15:40
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If we narrow down the list of swing states by giving Colorado and Virginia to the Democrats and Ohio and Iowa to the Republicans, that leaves Clinton with 269 EV and Trump with 215, with Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Florida as undecided. RCP polling average has Trump up slightly in all but Florida. 538 has Clinton up slightly in all four in the popular vote. Huffpost Pollster has Clinton slightly up in all four. Looking at the aggregators, 538 is the only one that doesn't have multiple states leaning Democrat that would put Clinton over 270 EV, and they have the four states above with a very slight Clinton edge. The problem for Trump is that he needs to run the table with those four states. Looking at The Upshot's handy listing of aggregators, 8 of 9 have Democrats winning New Hampshire, 7 of 9 have Democrats winning Nevada, 6 of 9 have Democrats winning North Carolina and Florida, and not one puts a single one of those states in the Trump column, and just lists them as tossup. It isn't that Trump can't win, he has a path, it's that even the best reading of the data shows him only within striking distance, not ahead.
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Nov 4, 2016 15:59
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Those New Hampshire polls yesterday definitely made me question whether Hillary is a lock to win. I guess Nevada can sub in for New Hampshire.
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Nov 4, 2016 16:06
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The other really big unknown in all this is just how much of a difference Hillary's ground-game advantage will make on election day (and before in states where there isn't early voting). Trump's best case scenario is that GOTV is wasted money and doesn't matter, and a worst-case is that Clinton will significantly outperform her polling. The reason that I'm so skeptical of Trump's chances is that I don't see the mechanism by which he outperforms his polls. Even if those mythical white voters who sat out the last two elections exist (and I really don't think they do to the extent that certain Republicans think they do), are Republicans going to be better at turning them out than the Democrats will be at turning out their own marginal voters who sat out 2012 / newly registered minority voters angered by Trump? Trump's got that mythical political "momentum" we hear about from the talking heads on TV but Democrats have superior infrastructure and given how much each side is going to be relying on turning out voters who aren't particularly excited about the candidates at the top, I think that gives Democrats an edge, even with the negative news cycle.
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Nov 4, 2016 16:39
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Vox Nihili posted:Those New Hampshire polls yesterday definitely made me question whether Hillary is a lock to win. I guess Nevada can sub in for New Hampshire. Sure. But- One is from ARG so you can basically throw that out, because lolarg. The rest is questionable. There has been literally one poll friendly to Trump this season so far, and that was a tie. Now we suddenly have tie/Trump slightly up polling. I'm not saying it's impossible at all, by any means - but there's not enough time to the election to figure out if these polls are noise or if it's actually really turned around for Trump there.
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Nov 4, 2016 16:48
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Azathoth posted:The reason that I'm so skeptical of Trump's chances is that I don't see the mechanism by which he outperforms his polls. Even if those mythical white voters who sat out the last two elections exist (and I really don't think they do to the extent that certain Republicans think they do), are Republicans going to be better at turning them out than the Democrats will be at turning out their own marginal voters who sat out 2012 / newly registered minority voters angered by Trump?
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Nov 4, 2016 16:51
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Hell of a swing in the last 24 hours. Went from being down 6% to up 5. NV DEM YES is up bigly.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:36
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Yeah, the best-case reading for Trump that I've seen is that they're keeping pace with Democrats, and this is an area where Republicans usually have the advantage. However, since we don't really have much history, we're kinda stuck comparing what is happening to 2012 only so I don't think we can say really what this all means until after election day. Both sides see things that they like, but the results seem to fall on a spectrum between neutral to both sides and unambiguously good for Democrats. Given that Democrats are far more reliant on marginal voters than Republicans (hence the recent midterm results), that Republicans can't pull away has got to be a worrying sign for them. Right now, I read the situation as a rough draw, but the Republicans need a win here to have much of a shot on Tuesday, so perhaps a slight victory for Democrats stragetically. Which just reinforces my point that Trump doesn't have a mechanism to outperform polls, and Clinton does.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:37
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Agronox posted:Hell of a swing in the last 24 hours. Went from being down 6% to up 5.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:37
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My balance sheet gained 10% today. Indiana repub senator bought at 20 really my shinning star sold that poo poo and bought PA Hilldawg. Oh yeah.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:43
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It looks like the bottom for Hillary-related markets has hit and while a state or two might surprise I don't think you're going to get the more obvious markets any cheaper than you can get them right now the rest of the way.
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Nov 4, 2016 18:22
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Azathoth posted:The early voting numbers there have been unambiguously good for Democrats, not surprised to see that. Yep. Incidentally, if anyone here doesn't read the Schnorkles early voting posts in the Trump Thread, it's worth your while to. He does a really good job of summarizing what is going on in the swing states.
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Nov 4, 2016 18:25
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If predict it didn't have limits Florida Rep No would be buying me a new House.
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Nov 4, 2016 19:37
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Should I cut my losses on OH and plow what's salvageable there into NV or the top of the ticket?
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Nov 4, 2016 19:46
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Elephanthead posted:If predict it didn't have limits Florida Rep No would be buying me a new House. What's the reason for this recent spike?
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Nov 4, 2016 20:41
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bawfuls posted:Should I cut my losses on OH and plow what's salvageable there into NV or the top of the ticket? I'm in the same boat, (with Iowa too). I'm holding on until election night, because I think it'll at least be a close enough race that it won't get called immediately when the polls closed, and prices will surge as people get worried (and as people look for markets to reinvest from other markets). But I could be wrong and greedy, and maybe its worth taking a 50% loss now in order to try to recoup some of it through other markets.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:44
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I'm not in IA or OH (i have no idea what's going to happen in either state but if you put a gun to my head I'd say Trump wins both), but if I were, I think I'd hold until e-day because I expect it to swing like hell, or at least revert to 50/50 at some point. Throw up some sells and hope they hit.
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Nov 4, 2016 22:03
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got a hot tip that the voting machines in TX are changing your vote from straight ticket republican to democrat so i just maxed out on DEM YES in TX at .08/share
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Nov 4, 2016 22:46
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jarofpiss posted:got a hot tip that the voting machines in TX are changing your vote from straight ticket republican to democrat so i just maxed out on DEM YES in TX at .08/share Goonspeed 
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Nov 4, 2016 22:48
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just trying to give you all a heads up because i don't see how that guy in my office who heard from an old man he goes to church with that "his vote got changed" could be wrong about this 
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Nov 4, 2016 22:52
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Now you made me check and lol @ these markets giving a higher likelihood of a Republican 370 sweep than Texas turning blue
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Nov 4, 2016 22:58
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I'm for real excited to have as close to a real 'control' experiment as possible on how much GOTV actually matters. Will it be nothing? Will it be a landslide?? Who knows!
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Nov 4, 2016 23:00
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Necc0 posted:Now you made me check and lol @ these markets giving a higher likelihood of a Republican 370 sweep than Texas turning blue still trying to wrap my head around how trump supporters think there's a 10% chance they sweep with 370 votes in a rigged election
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Nov 4, 2016 23:02
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jarofpiss posted:still trying to wrap my head around how trump supporters think there's a 10% chance they sweep with 370 votes in a rigged election Putin's hackers son.
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Nov 4, 2016 23:12
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jarofpiss posted:got a hot tip that the voting machines in TX are changing your vote from straight ticket republican to democrat so i just maxed out on DEM YES in TX at .08/share lmao
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Nov 4, 2016 23:22
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jarofpiss posted:still trying to wrap my head around how trump supporters think there's a 10% chance they sweep with 370 votes in a rigged election Not counting weird diehards, it might be risky daytraders who are trying to flip a ton of extremely cheap shares during a short term dip/peak. IIRC, someone in this thread bought a ton of Biden runs for prez shares after Biden announced he wouldn't run. They made profit when the shares swung between 1 cent and 3 cents as Biden.Yes owners tried to cash out early. There's some room to profit off weird gaps or impossible to resolve shares like that. DMCrimson has issued a correction as of 23:45 on Nov 4, 2016 |
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Nov 4, 2016 23:43
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jarofpiss posted:still trying to wrap my head around how trump supporters think there's a 10% chance they sweep with 370 votes in a rigged election Part of it is because of the way the vig is structured and betting limits. That 5% on every withdrawal is brutal; it means that, unless you see something that you'd like to trade after November 9th (and I don't), you shouldn't buy anything 95 cents or above. And even then, the $850 limit stops a lot of markets from looking more rational. I mean, if the limit didn't exist I would be happy to sell people tens of thousands of dollars of TRUMP LANDSLIDE YES for 10 cents because the true odds are, well, something that would definitely round down to zero. But I can't.
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Nov 5, 2016 00:18
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nachos posted:What's the reason for this recent spike? Amazingly, Florida ran out of old white people after the first week. On track for a 70+% turnout this election, and hispanic/latino vote is literally doubling.
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Nov 5, 2016 01:15
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Necc0 posted:I'm for real excited to have as close to a real 'control' experiment as possible on how much GOTV actually matters. Will it be nothing? Will it be a landslide?? Who knows! obama's great gotv vs romney's competent gotv beat polls by 3.5% now we get to see Muhammad Ali fight an 80 foot tall mechanical joe Frazier
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Nov 5, 2016 01:23
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What happened to the Predicit map?
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Nov 5, 2016 01:26
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Nirvikalpa posted:What happened to the Predicit map? Link is in the header instead of the sidebar, that’s all.
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Nov 5, 2016 01:27
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theflyingexecutive posted:obama's great gotv vs romney's competent gotv beat polls by 3.5% i don't quite remember but i believe the entire earth was destroyed
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Nov 5, 2016 01:27
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a bet of $0 dollars on bender would yield a thousand bucks if he wins. Still, very few takers It's just not a smart bet
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Nov 5, 2016 01:29
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whatever7 posted:Putin's hackers son. For what it's worth we've all been a bit deliberately blind to the fact that Republicans are controlling a lot of key swing states and have made it perfectly clear there's no low to low for them Necc0 has issued a correction as of 01:51 on Nov 5, 2016 |
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Nov 5, 2016 01:46
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Agronox posted:Yep. Do you have a link? Elephanthead posted:If predict it didn't have limits Florida Rep No would be buying me a new House. Why?
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Nov 5, 2016 02:19
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Necc0 posted:I'm for real excited to have as close to a real 'control' experiment as possible on how much GOTV actually matters. Will it be nothing? Will it be a landslide?? Who knows! didnt obama already prove that it matters the last couple elections? his gotv effort was enormous, probably dwarfed mccain's almost as much as hillary's dwarfs trump's
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Nov 5, 2016 04:36
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