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Necc0 posted:I'm for real excited to have as close to a real 'control' experiment as possible on how much GOTV actually matters. Will it be nothing? Will it be a landslide?? Who knows! a door knock in the last 4 days of an election can increase the probability of a voter making it to the polls by 8%. a really good gotv is probably worth no more than 1-2%.
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Nov 5, 2016 04:41
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| # ? May 28, 2024 17:50 |
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Clinton is locked in Nevada and looking extremely good in Florida. The latino vote this year is turning out to be legendary, and many of them are not registered dems, so it doesn't show up in the early vote margin.
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Nov 5, 2016 05:44
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i hope i make a fortune off florida
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Nov 5, 2016 05:54
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Same. All of the early voting news in NV & FL is very reassuring.
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Nov 5, 2016 07:08
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Hillary wins, I go home even. Hillary wins with Florida? I go home a happy happy man. Hillary picks up Georgia, Ohio, or Texas (lol) drinks are on me.
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Nov 5, 2016 07:29
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if i had known how much money i was going to dump into this dumb website i probably wouldn't have voted third party in tx. going to be really hoisted by my own retard if it's close and she loses lol
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Nov 5, 2016 16:35
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jarofpiss posted:if i had known how much money i was going to dump into this dumb website i probably wouldn't have voted third party in tx. going to be really hoisted by my own retard if it's close and she loses lol Now you understand why Dems get so pissed at people voting third party who should know better?
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Nov 5, 2016 16:43
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In other news it looks like the markets are slowly returning to sanity. I imagine from this point on it will be a constant march towards 99 or 1 depending on the market. If you don't plan on holding until the electoral college makes their formal vote I recommend queueing up your sell orders now.
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Nov 5, 2016 16:45
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Just bought Florida Dem yes and then immediately realized that Rep no was lower and I was like "Really, me? Really?" Not a big deal in money terms but like half the fun in this taking advantage of these dumb irrational price differences.
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Nov 5, 2016 16:54
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Necc0 posted:Now you understand why Dems get so pissed at people voting third party who should know better? and people say it doesn't matter who's president! i'm still $200 short of maxing out on REP 370 NO and i've got a buy order in at 90c. would be nice if it dropped again but i should probably put that $200 PENCE NO or nevada shouldn't i
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Nov 5, 2016 16:55
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People who are delusional and/or engaging in sunk cost fallacy are making me very happy on predictit.
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Nov 5, 2016 17:15
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Concerned Citizen posted:a door knock in the last 4 days of an election can increase the probability of a voter making it to the polls by 8%. a really good gotv is probably worth no more than 1-2%. ahahahaha quoting this for Tuesday
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Nov 5, 2016 17:42
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Necc0 posted:In other news it looks like the markets are slowly returning to sanity. I imagine from this point on it will be a constant march towards 99 or 1 depending on the market. If you don't plan on holding until the electoral college makes their formal vote I recommend queueing up your sell orders now. Can you explain this a little more? I'm pretty new to PredictIt.
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Nov 5, 2016 17:52
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theflyingexecutive posted:ahahahaha quoting this for Tuesday why
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Nov 5, 2016 17:55
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showbiz_liz posted:Can you explain this a little more? I'm pretty new to PredictIt. A lot of these markets aren't actually going to close and settle on Nov 9th. They're going to wait until the electoral college actually votes which won't be until two months after the election on Jan 6th. So what will happen initially is all of the markets will spike up to .99 or down to .01 the night of the election as people either flee to grab what few pennies they still have, cash out to get their money two months ahead- selling their shares at .99 instead of waiting another two months for the full dollar, or jumping IN to the market to grab up all the free pennies off the people cashing out. What will happen after is instead of a dance over what the 'correct' price of the event actually occurring is, it'll instead be a balance between people wanting to get their money out without having to wait and other people wanting more than a penny on the dollar to hold on to it for them. At this point the price will drop from 99/01 to maybe 95/05 and then slowly trickle back up as the actual closing date gets closer. SO! If you're going to want your money asap after the election I recommend you put sell orders for all your shares at .98 or .99 right now to get as far ahead in line as possible. If you don't mind waiting an extra two months for that last penny or two then don't worry about it. Just keep in mind that if you change your mind after the election you're going to have a HUGE line to get behind or bite the bullet and sell off your shares at .94-.96
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Nov 5, 2016 18:00
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Does anybody know if it's "first in, first out"? I bought all of my Hillary wins shares when she got ill and put 99c sell orders in around that time. I bought into Florida last week and also put sell orders in immediately. So, is there a queue of sorts where my shares will sell before somebody who put their sell orders in after me? Also, I would be willing to bet (heh) that the site crashes around the time that Florida results come pouring in. Which is a bummer because that makes me even less likely to get my money out with haste. Also, that means not getting to see any meltdowns in the comment section.
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Nov 5, 2016 18:05
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theflyingexecutive posted:ahahahaha quoting this for Tuesday The lovely part is, even though one side has gotv efforts and the other does not, the polls are so universally poo poo that you can make that claim for just about any number or margin of Victory and have it be somewhat accurate or at least sound right.
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Nov 5, 2016 18:05
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On the other hand, there is bound to be a huge amount of volatility on election night proper, especially when polls close and networks don't call states immediately. You can try to play this extra bit of insanity to increase your profits (e.g., you could buy TX.REP.NO at a low price on Nov. 7th, and then when Texas polls close and the networks say it's too close to declare a winner at first, see if you can double your money as people panic sell out of fear). Note that this is a very risky strategy that probably isn't worth pursuing, but it definitely happened back in 2012 and some people claimed to be able to make a lot of money doing it. Fidel Castronaut posted:Does anybody know if it's "first in, first out"? I bought all of my Hillary wins shares when she got ill and put 99c sell orders in around that time. I bought into Florida last week and also put sell orders in immediately. So, is there a queue of sorts where my shares will sell before somebody who put their sell orders in after me? Yes, the first offers get priority. You can test it yourself by putting an offer on the site that's the same as an existing one, and on the 'Prices' tab for that market your orders will show up below the existing ones. Discospawn has issued a correction as of 18:08 on Nov 5, 2016 |
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Nov 5, 2016 18:05
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Fidel Castronaut posted:Does anybody know if it's "first in, first out"? I bought all of my Hillary wins shares when she got ill and put 99c sell orders in around that time. I bought into Florida last week and also put sell orders in immediately. So, is there a queue of sorts where my shares will sell before somebody who put their sell orders in after me? It's FIFO for each 'price point', yes If you look at the 'available shares' in any of the markets where you have sell orders you'll see the price you placed sales at split into three rows instead of one: the row closer to the current price is all the shares in front of you in line, the row further is all the shares behind you. The ones in the middle are yours and should be highlighted
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Nov 5, 2016 18:07
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I'm debating on setting up .99c sell orders to cash out quicker and then re-buy into other markets with house money (and possibly some of my deposit - depending on how things look) after the election but before the electoral college does their thing. What markets do people see as being good buys post-Tuesday? I'm considering "Will Comey resign in 2016" to be good odds with "Nos" selling for .75 currently. Thoughts?
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Nov 5, 2016 18:15
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Discospawn posted:On the other hand, there is bound to be a huge amount of volatility on election night proper, especially when polls close and networks don't call states immediately. You can try to play this extra bit of insanity to increase your profits (e.g., you could buy TX.REP.NO at a low price on Nov. 7th, and then when Texas polls close and the networks say it's too close to declare a winner at first, see if you can double your money as people panic sell out of fear). I have all my shares set to sell at .99 I plan on taking the winnings and turning them right back into all the markets once they inevitably drop back down to ~.95 as people look to cash out. Want to get one last squeeze out of this site before I finally cash out myself
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Nov 5, 2016 18:15
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tangy yet delightful posted:I'm debating on setting up .99c sell orders to cash out quicker and then re-buy into other markets with house money (and possibly some of my deposit - depending on how things look) after the election but before the electoral college does their thing. There's going to be MASSIVE volatility after the election / markets close as tons of money gets dumped into everyone's accounts and they all go nuts with it. There's no telling what will happen but there will almost certainly be good opportunities
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Nov 5, 2016 18:17
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reminder to be careful if you plan on playing election night - no guarantee PI's servers will make it through. don't get caught holding a bag you don't want if (when??) the servers gently caress up
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Nov 5, 2016 18:18
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ALSO keep in mind that there's still a chance that Trump will refuse to concede the election. If that happens there's no way PredictIt will close the markets.Social Studies 3rd Period posted:reminder to be careful if you plan on playing election night - no guarantee PI's servers will make it through. don't get caught holding a bag you don't want if (when??) the servers gently caress up
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Nov 5, 2016 18:19
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Tuesday is it for me. I made some dumb bets during the primary and only through the grace of Primary Jesus made it all back and ended the primaries with a nice profit. I only trust myself enough to bet on Hillary winning the whole thing and maybe Florida. Any politics after Tuesday I am way too stupid to be able to bet with confidence. But hey, all goes well and I got a couple thousand dollars and all it cost me was hanging out with you people. 
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Nov 5, 2016 18:22
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thanks to some dumb errors on part, i walked away with approx. $500 in profits (could been more...) but hey with depositing only a little, making Stupid Mistakes aplenty, i'll take that for indulging my dumb politics hobby. 
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Nov 5, 2016 18:24
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Necc0 posted:There's going to be MASSIVE volatility after the election / markets close as tons of money gets dumped into everyone's accounts and they all go nuts with it. There's no telling what will happen but there will almost certainly be good opportunities Fair enough point there, .99 sell orders set. If they resolve in time for me to play other markets cool, otherwise I'll wait till electoral college to cash out.
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Nov 5, 2016 18:29
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Necc0 posted:SO! If you're going to want your money asap after the election I recommend you put sell orders for all your shares at .98 or .99 right now to get as far ahead in line as possible. If you don't mind waiting an extra two months for that last penny or two then don't worry about it. Just keep in mind that if you change your mind after the election you're going to have a HUGE line to get behind or bite the bullet and sell off your shares at .94-.96 Got it, thanks!
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Nov 5, 2016 18:33
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Necc0 posted:A lot of these markets aren't actually going to close and settle on Nov 9th. They're going to wait until the electoral college actually votes which won't be until two months after the election on Jan 6th. Yeah that is really interesting to think about. Good point. I agree it will likely settle around 95c and slowly crawl up as we approach January. I got into R370 no at 86c or so for $850, after that it really is hard to justify due to the fees. I'll admit I didn't realize they wouldn't close until January. That throws another wrench in it since my money is now held up 2 months instead of 1 week. But still better than the equivalent of it sitting in a bank account.
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Nov 5, 2016 18:44
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poppingseagull posted:Yeah that is really interesting to think about. Good point. I agree it will likely settle around 95c and slowly crawl up as we approach January. Well- they're deliberately being ambiguous about their closing conditions so they might actually close it on Wednesday. If your money is already in and you don't feel like waiting I'd recommend placing a sell at .98 or .99 and waiting. There's a good chance that as other people get their winnings they're going to do the same thing as me and vacuum up all the remaining 'safe' markets that are still open.
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Nov 5, 2016 18:46
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mlmp08 posted:People who are delusional and/or engaging in sunk cost fallacy are making me very happy on predictit. Yeah, I'm finally starting to see where the mindset comes from, because there's a couple markets that I messed up on and it's like, well, okay I can cash out for 25% of what I put in, (which is objectively the right answer but feels bad), or just ride it out for a vanishingly small chance at 700%. Of course I only play small ball so it's much easier to shrug off too
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Nov 5, 2016 19:20
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They are probably going to get a poo poo ton of credit card charge backs and we are all getting hosed. loving Trump supporters.
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Nov 5, 2016 19:22
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mlmp08 posted:People who are delusional and/or engaging in sunk cost fallacy are making me very happy on predictit. "Ralston wants a spot in the Clinton administration that much is obvious. It is voter intemidation plain AND simple and anybody who buys into it is a fool, end of!" This is their reaction to someone who is essentially reading numbers off the NV SOS reported early voting results
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Nov 5, 2016 19:25
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Elephanthead posted:They are probably going to get a poo poo ton of credit card charge backs and we are all getting hosed. loving Trump supporters. honestly most people should be worried more that PI crumbles/something happens to PI than trump winning, i think. (not that I think either is gonna happen, but if you have to worry about a nightmare scenario, well)
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Nov 5, 2016 19:25
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Don't make me arzy about Predictit not paying up. It's run by a university, so I can't imagine them taking the money and running. My only concern is that the huge wave of people withdrawing will slow down deposits.
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Nov 5, 2016 19:42
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Fidel Castronaut posted:Don't make me arzy about Predictit not paying up. It's run by a university, so I can't imagine them taking the money and running. My only concern is that the huge wave of people withdrawing will slow down deposits. Nope. The research is run by a university. The money & infrastructure is a subsidiary of Aristotle
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Nov 5, 2016 19:50
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Is there still an IRC or discord or some channel still running?
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Nov 5, 2016 19:51
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Necc0 posted:Nope. The research is run by a university. The money & infrastructure is a subsidiary of Aristotle Stop it! :arzy: e: leaving it because i'm too lazy to look up the smiley code.
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Nov 5, 2016 19:51
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Necc0 posted:A lot of these markets aren't actually going to close and settle on Nov 9th. They're going to wait until the electoral college actually votes which won't be until two months after the election on Jan 6th. As far as I can see every state market is popular vote, not electoral college voter votes, so those will pay out right away. And since the national ones were created at different times, they all say different things in the rules, but since some are as loose as this, I think PredictIt will rule like this for all of them: quote:The candidate named in the question will be elected president of the United States in the 2016 general election as determined by the vote of the Electoral College. This Market will close by the end date or at such time earlier when, in PredictIt's sole judgment, the result is beyond question. My guess is we'll get paid out on all almost every single market by the end of next week, but necc0 is right that they always reserve the right to do something irritating, MO-dem style
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Nov 5, 2016 20:12
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| # ? May 28, 2024 17:50 |
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Fidel Castronaut posted:Stop it! 
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Nov 5, 2016 20:33
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