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This is from Pew and I kind of feel their moderately reliable 
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Nov 6, 2016 20:15
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BetterToRuleInHell posted:Hahaha, people said the same poo poo for this election and Obama's re-election. But I bet you're right this time! ...They were right? The electorate IS less white. It will continue to get less white.
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Nov 6, 2016 20:15
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The thought that even one state will go for a horror like Trump let alone many states is depressing.
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Nov 6, 2016 20:16
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Dick Trauma posted:The thought that even one state will go for a horror like Trump let alone many states is depressing. I live in SC, which will landslide for Trump. It is more depressing than you can imagine.
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Nov 6, 2016 20:17
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Dick Trauma posted:The thought that even one state will go for a horror like Trump let alone many states is depressing. This whole election is depressing And lol did someone on the other page seriously suggest Democrats would vote for Bloomberg if he ran?
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Nov 6, 2016 20:19
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RVProfootballer posted:*he says, as record Latino turnout crushes Trump to dust* And Obama got 96% of the black vote in 2008, and 93% in 2012. Did I miss where the GOP fell apart? Because I'm pretty sure they have their own person running for president and he's getting a percentage of the vote.
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Nov 6, 2016 20:19
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Dead Cosmonaut posted:This whole election is depressing No I suggested that I and other Democrats who think like me that Bernie is a moron would.
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Nov 6, 2016 20:20
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I like Pew Research center . http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/01/27/the-demographic-trends-shaping-american-politics-in-2016-and-beyond/ 
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Nov 6, 2016 20:21
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5436 posted:I meant Hillary wins Ohio less than likely. But I agree I think it'll be close and trump winning. He's been strong there and Iowa for a while. Yeah, Harry Enten remarked on his twitter that Iowa isn't really a swing state anymore, and I agree. Pretty Republican by this point.
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Nov 6, 2016 20:20
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So is it NBC specifically that's sitting on the apprentice tapes or is all the like production crew? I know there were NDAs with a ridiculously high financial penalty, but is there any argument to be made that there is a compelling public interest that supersedes that?
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Nov 6, 2016 20:23
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BetterToRuleInHell posted:And Obama got 96% of the black vote in 2008, and 93% in 2012. Did I miss where the GOP fell apart? Because I'm pretty sure they have their own person running for president and he's getting a percentage of the vote. I don't think the people saying "the GOP needs to change or die" are saying that the GOP will cease to exist in the near future if they don't change, just that their national profile is going to be severely diminished as long as their base steadfastly refuses to expand their coalition to one that is capable of winning the White House.
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Nov 6, 2016 20:23
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ImpAtom posted:...They were right? The electorate IS less white. It will continue to get less white. No, I get that. it's the hyperbole that comes with it that is annoying. The GOP is not dead. After this election they will have the chance to take back congressional seats, and they will have the chance to take the presidency next election, which will probably happen because unless the economy returns to Clinton-era prosperity, people are going to be tired of 12 years under a democrat.
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Nov 6, 2016 20:23
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BetterToRuleInHell posted:And Obama got 96% of the black vote in 2008, and 93% in 2012. Did I miss where the GOP fell apart? Because I'm pretty sure they have their own person running for president and he's getting a percentage of the vote. White people didn't suddenly vanish into a hole overnight. That doesn't mean the GOP isn't losing heavy group with every other demographic and we're seeing in 2016 that [i]at minimum,[/i the white vote alone will not carry you. BetterToRuleInHell posted:people are going to be tired of 12 years under a democrat. If the GOP continues Trump-era (or worse) dialogue then people aren't going to be tired enough to suddenly vote for the GOP. To get the 'tired' vote they have to become something people want to embrace. I mean even as it stands now the GOP depends heavily on voter suppression and gerrymandering to maintain the advantages they have. That is not a good thing. ImpAtom fucked around with this message at 20:26 on Nov 6, 2016 |
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Nov 6, 2016 20:23
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axeil posted:No I suggested that I and other Democrats who think like me that Bernie is a moron would. lol forget clinton for a moment Bloomberg is about as close to Wall St. as you can get I don't think I've ever met anyone from Manhattan who wasn't a rich rear end in a top hat ever say anything nice about him.
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Nov 6, 2016 20:24
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BetterToRuleInHell posted:And Obama got 96% of the black vote in 2008, and 93% in 2012. Did I miss where the GOP fell apart? Because I'm pretty sure they have their own person running for president and he's getting a percentage of the vote. Oh, you took "they'd die" literally? Yeah, they can keep losing national elections indefinitely. The house becomes incredibly unfavorable to them if anything comes of Obama's anti-gerrymandering thing or the 2020 census, too. BetterToRuleInHell posted:No, I get that. it's the hyperbole that comes with it that is annoying. Yeah, fair enough.
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Nov 6, 2016 20:25
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stone cold posted:So is it NBC specifically that's sitting on the apprentice tapes or is all the like production crew? I know there were NDAs with a ridiculously high financial penalty, but is there any argument to be made that there is a compelling public interest that supersedes that?
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Nov 6, 2016 20:25
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What's the latest the election will be called?
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Nov 6, 2016 20:25
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TheGreatGnocchi posted:I find it absolutely adorable how all the media outlets are pushing the "tightening, down to the wire" narrative. This loving race hasn't changed even before Comey. They do this every goddamn election so they can keep viewership and ratings. They simply refuse to explain the state of the race as it is, they HAVE to be sure to keep saying Trump is narrowing the margin. They said the same in 2008 about McCain and for Romney in 2012. I seriously can't wait for the downfall of cable news. Facebook keeps pushing me posts I've made from exactly four years ago which are variations of "Romney is not going to win PA or MI guys, no matter how many journalists pretend they're toss-up" and "this election is not actually close."
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Nov 6, 2016 20:25
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BetterToRuleInHell posted:And Obama got 96% of the black vote in 2008, and 93% in 2012. Did I miss where the GOP fell apart? Because I'm pretty sure they have their own person running for president and he's getting a percentage of the vote. The GOP is currently falling apart. It is significantly more fallen-apart than it was in 2008. This is what a falling-apart national party looks like. They don't just declare "I am vanquished!" and disappear.
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Nov 6, 2016 20:25
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Pakled posted:I don't think the people saying "the GOP needs to change or die" are saying that the GOP will cease to exist in the near future if they don't change, just that their national profile is going to be severely diminished as long as their base steadfastly refuses to expand their coalition to one that is capable of winning the White House. It is literally what I quoted in my original post: Shimrra Jamaane posted:The electorate will be far less white in 8 years. The GOP will either have to change or die going forward. Which means they are going to die. If I had a nickel for a every time I saw this posted in USPol I'd have killed myself because who needs that many loving nickels? I mean, seriously.
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Nov 6, 2016 20:26
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Dead Cosmonaut posted:lol You understand that Bernie's election would have potential massive significant negative real life impact for me right? Bloomberg might be an rear end in a top hat but at least he knows how things work. All he'd have to do is pull 5 percent of the vote and Bernie loses in a landslide. It's why I'm glad Bernie lost as we'd almost certainly have president Trump
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Nov 6, 2016 20:26
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Antti posted:Facebook keeps pushing me posts I've made from exactly four years ago which are variations of "Romney is not going to win PA or MI guys, no matter how many journalists pretend they're toss-up" and "this election is not actually close." Nate Silver was the one running around arguing that though Now he's melting down on Twitter at people who put Clinton at good odds against Trump
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Nov 6, 2016 20:26
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Yaws posted:What's the latest the election will be called? Michigan? It'll probably get called when Hillary wins FL and NC though. Also yes it is easy to call Nate's model bad, when you compare 538 in 2012 vs today. The polls were closer, but Nate had Obama at 91%.
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Nov 6, 2016 20:27
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BetterToRuleInHell posted:And Obama got 96% of the black vote in 2008, and 93% in 2012. Did I miss where the GOP fell apart? Because I'm pretty sure they have their own person running for president and he's getting a percentage of the vote. "Record Latino turnout crushing Trump to dust" is very premature and anyone who thinks the GOP is going to just disband or something in one or two election cycles is a fool. The GOP does have a very serious demographics problems going forward past the short term though and the electorate is indeed getting less and less white.
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Nov 6, 2016 20:27
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Yaws posted:What's the latest the election will be called? January 6 of next year. Realistically? Several days if it turns out to hinge on a tight race in Florida.
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Nov 6, 2016 20:27
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I don't actually think the GOP will be able to take back the Presidency in 2020 because of the changing Demographics. I think we'll see a strong Republican led House and Senate for the next 8 years then as a party they'll have to change. They won't though. Also, in regards to the election. Evangelicals are absolutely bleeding influence because more and more young people do not identify as Fundamentalist Christian. This has more to do though with the rise of individualism as a philosophy.
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Nov 6, 2016 20:27
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BetterToRuleInHell posted:If I had a nickel for a every time I saw this posted in USPol I'd have killed myself because who needs that many loving nickels? I mean, seriously. And again, what is wrong with that? Do you think the GOP will somehow regain a bunch of the vote in 2020 without changing how they approach things?
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Nov 6, 2016 20:28
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Axetrain posted:"Record Latino turnout crushing Trump to dust" is very premature and anyone who thinks the GOP is going to just disband or something in one or two election cycles is a fool. The GOP does have a very serious demographics problems going forward past the short term though and the electorate is indeed getting less and less white. The GOP controls close to two thirds of stare government. They are far from dead and I wish people would stop falling for it.
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Nov 6, 2016 20:28
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Hollismason posted:I don't actually think the GOP will be able to take back the Presidency in 2020 because of the changing Demographics. I think we'll see a strong Republican led House and Senate for the next 8 years then as a party they'll have to change. They won't though. There's a lot of time between then and now and people are stupid, it's basically guaranteed to be a close race and Hill is going to be 4 years older. Someone like Tom Cotton could very well get the nomination and that dude is likeable enough to get all the Trump vote plus the normal white vote.
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Nov 6, 2016 20:29
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ComradeCosmobot posted:January 6 of next year. I can't imagine this coming down to Florida.
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Nov 6, 2016 20:30
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The GOP won't go away completely but as a younger more liberal generation of GOPers starts I think we'll see a shift to fiscal conservative and social liberalism.Boon posted:There's a lot of time between then and now and people are stupid, it's basically guaranteed to be a close race and Hill is going to be 4 years older. Someone like Tom Cotton could very well get the nomination and that dude is likeable enough to get all the Trump vote plus the normal white vote. The problem with this though is the white vote isn't enough anymore. Demographically once Millenials start aging as a population when they get to around their Mid 40s they start to vote more. We're also as a nation becoming more accepting in regards to LGBT rights etc Hollismason fucked around with this message at 20:33 on Nov 6, 2016 |
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Nov 6, 2016 20:29
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Boon posted:There's a lot of time between then and now and people are stupid, it's basically guaranteed to be a close race and Hill is going to be 4 years older. Someone like Tom Cotton could very well get the nomination and that dude is likeable enough to get all the Trump vote plus the normal white vote. Also had the GOP nominated Kasich Hillary would have been toast. All the GOP needs is for the moderate wing to not block each other in 2020 and they'll be fine.
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Nov 6, 2016 20:30
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Dead Cosmonaut posted:lol Axeil is a banker so his gently caress you got mine approach makes sense.
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Nov 6, 2016 20:31
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ImpAtom posted:And again, what is wrong with that? Do you think the GOP will somehow regain a bunch of the vote in 2020 without changing how they approach things? Absolutely I can see the GOP getting a win in 2020. I can see a scenario where if the economy feels exactly as it does now, the GOP controls the House and Senate in the 2018 midterms, and by 2020, people being tired of 12 years of the same thing, and then rebuking the offer of four more years it.
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Nov 6, 2016 20:35
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I just don't see the Republicans pulling off a win in 2020 because of the changing demographics. Also, if Donald Trump is around he most certainly will run for President in 2020.
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Nov 6, 2016 20:36
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Hollismason posted:The GOP won't go away completely but as a younger more liberal generation of GOPers starts I think we'll see a shift to fiscal conservative and social liberalism. This is what they "should" do but I can't see mechanically how they can, when GOP politicians try this they typically get howled at by their rear end in a top hat base and then primaried if they stick to it. After this election the GOP may be in for some big internal shakeups since the GOP doesn't really seem to know what it wants to actually be, although I thought that in 2012 too. Axetrain fucked around with this message at 20:47 on Nov 6, 2016 |
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Nov 6, 2016 20:36
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Next to Michael Bloomberg, Clinton is a loving socialist You can't just tally liberals by looking at their views on sin taxes and gun control anymore. The Democrats' party platform reflects that.
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Nov 6, 2016 20:37
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axeil posted:Also had the GOP nominated Kasich Hillary would have been toast. All the GOP needs is for the moderate wing to not block each other in 2020 and they'll be fine. Republican primary voters are not interested in that.
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Nov 6, 2016 20:37
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Well I 100% believe Trump will run again in 2020 and spend the next 4 years attacking , holding rallies, and because of the Republican primary system he may win. However, the Republicans are going to do everything in their power to stop him so I'm sure we'll see some rules changes. Like Hillary Clinton is not going to just win and then Trump disappears in a puff of smoke. He's going to stick around and try milking this for as much money as he can. Hollismason fucked around with this message at 20:40 on Nov 6, 2016 |
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Nov 6, 2016 20:38
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I drove down to my hometown (FL) to vote and when I stopped by my parents' my mom gave me a MAGA hat. It felt great to wear it after voting straight D down the ballot 
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Nov 6, 2016 20:40
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