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Professor Skittles posted:Nate silver kept me from going all in. Now I'm reading his model benefits trump way too much How does it benefit Trump? I'm curious.
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Nov 7, 2016 08:39
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| # ? May 23, 2024 21:24 |
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there is still a seven cent gap between DEM.YES and GOP.NO on PREZPARTY16 and its blowing my mind
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Nov 7, 2016 09:40
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Professor Skittles posted:Nate silver kept me from going all in. Now I'm reading his model benefits trump way too much  The shookness is coming from inside the thread.
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Nov 7, 2016 12:48
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Zeta Taskforce posted:What they have is extremely rudimentary. When the Billy Bush video came out I tried to write "Grab her by the pussy" in a comment and it got rejected. 99% sure it's some /pol/ shitlord who's melting down now that the writing is on the wall.
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Nov 7, 2016 13:10
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Nirvikalpa posted:How does it benefit Trump? I'm curious. 538 assumes a much higher degree of uncertainty than pretty much every other prediction model out there, which tends to benefit whoever is losing. Also, as election day gets closer, 538 weights recent polls more and more heavily, so big fluctuations in polling (which likely represent changes in propensity to respond to polls much more than they represent actual changes in voter intent) cause big fluctuations in 538's models. Most other prediction models recognize that the vast majority of the electorate doesn't actually change their mind that quickly and thus their predictions are much more stable over time. So when you've had a bad news week for Clinton that ultimately ends up being nothing (e.g. the comey bullshit), 538 artificially inflates Trump's chances at winning. dik-dik has issued a correction as of 15:09 on Nov 7, 2016 |
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Nov 7, 2016 15:03
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Nirvikalpa posted:How does it benefit Trump? I'm curious. Sam Wang is careful with his words, but he argues that Silver's model is inherently biased against whoever the frontrunner is. http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/06/is-99-a-reasonable-probability/ quote:Their roots are in detail-oriented activities such as fantasy baseball. They score individual pollsters, and they want to predict things like individual-state vote shares. Achieving these goals requires building a model with lots of parameters, and running regressions and other statistical procedures to estimate those parameters. However, every parameter has an uncertainty attached to it. When all those parameters get put together to estimate the overall outcome, the resulting total is highly uncertain.
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Nov 7, 2016 15:16
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IM DAY DAY IRL posted:there is still a seven cent gap between DEM.YES and GOP.NO on PREZPARTY16 and its blowing my mind I don't quite get things like this. Why are these even separate bets? I guess GOP no doesn't necessarily mean DEM yes because of third parties but lol come on. Also, I think I'm going to dump like $500 into Kaine VP since it's one of the few things you can still put money into.
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Nov 7, 2016 15:48
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They are separate bets to help get around the CFTC no action letter limits.
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Nov 7, 2016 16:28
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If I may attempt a brief summary of last minute opportunities; There's a bunch of 'safe' stuff in the 80s: -PA -VA -NV -CO -the nationals (Kaine VP, etc) Riskier stuff, but much better returns if you're banking on Hdawg overperforming: -FL (63) -NH (74) -NC (53) -ME-2 (41) -AZ (28) Then you've got spreads of popular/EC margin, like -4-10% win (55 combined) -320-379 EC (64) -340-379 EC (30) This is obviously not comprehensive, but am I missing anything particularly interesting? Out of the above, FL looks like the best value, the 4-10% group, with AZ if I want a flier.
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Nov 7, 2016 16:35
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Careful with NC. Looks like GOP's voter suppression laws are working and NC is going to be closer than it should. African American vote is down from this time in 2012 (vs. up in FL, GA, LA): https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/795378059570544645
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Nov 7, 2016 17:00
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Also, for another 'safe' market, the 'Will GOP control presidency and both houses of congress' market (https://predictit.com/Contract/481/Will-Republicans-control-both-Congress-and-the-White-House-after-2016#data) is still trading at $.16. I think this may be safer than any individual state market at similar prices (the 'NO' side of it, obviously), but it is almost equivalent to the top-level presidential markets (if Trump wins the white house, Republicans will almost certainly control congress as well).
Discospawn has issued a correction as of 17:07 on Nov 7, 2016 |
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Nov 7, 2016 17:02
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Now I'm curious what the biggest spread between identical markets have been. Six cents between VP picks is pretty impressive but there must have been bigger ones.
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Nov 7, 2016 21:28
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I have been selling off some of my more expensive yes dem and buying the cheaper no republican shares today. Kinda a pain to do have to check shares available and judge risk. You can also dump more expensive shares and get more share as your at risk drops. NC I am looking at you bastards state
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Nov 7, 2016 21:30
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DMCrimson posted:Now I'm curious what the biggest spread between identical markets have been. Six cents between VP picks is pretty impressive but there must have been bigger ones. When Florida was being crazy last week I regularly saw spreads of 8-10c.
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Nov 7, 2016 22:33
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Kaine for VP is down a couple of cents right now. I'm gonna dump another $100 in Edit: aaaand its back up
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Nov 7, 2016 23:46
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Can't believe PenceNo is still sub-80c at this point. Real tempted to dump more into it right now. This is undisciplined but it's not money that I couldn't afford to lose.
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Nov 7, 2016 23:56
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I redeployed my GOP LANDSLIDE NO money to PA, FL, and a bit of NC.
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Nov 8, 2016 00:20
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Join me in Ohio for the fat gains, friends. Throw caution to the wind!
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Nov 8, 2016 00:42
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I did the safe hillary bets and threw some extra at florida my body is ready. please i want free money
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Nov 8, 2016 00:55
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Zeta Taskforce posted:What they have is extremely rudimentary. When the Billy Bush video came out I tried to write "Grab her by the pussy" in a comment and it got rejected. "If I post this, the site might get shut down! I won't lose all my money and will never be able to pay off the crippling debt I took on to put it all on TRUMP.370EV"
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Nov 8, 2016 01:20
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Pence no is still under 80. I put a few more bucks in. I guess republicans believe in redistribution of wealth after all
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Nov 8, 2016 03:03
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BiohazrD posted:Pence no is still under 80. I put a few more bucks in. I'm maxxed out and can't bet more on it 
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Nov 8, 2016 03:04
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Where should I put my last $10?
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Nov 8, 2016 03:19
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Nirvikalpa posted:Where should I put my last $10? blue texas
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Nov 8, 2016 03:22
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H.P. Hovercraft posted:blue texas Go big or go home.
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Nov 8, 2016 03:27
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H.P. Hovercraft posted:blue texas c'mon, you have to keep it realistic blue alaska
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Nov 8, 2016 03:47
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Nirvikalpa posted:Where should I put my last $10? Rep NO in Utah imo
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Nov 8, 2016 04:02
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So what should us new guys (and potentially low buy-in traders) be looking to do to maximize on election night?
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Nov 8, 2016 04:08
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 This is pennies compared to a lot of people, but good luck to me! I bet on Presidential race in Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Utah, Virginia, Wisconsin Vice President / Female president Wisconsin senate race Republican senate majority Democrat landslide vote Now to put in my sell orders
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Nov 8, 2016 04:09
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weekly font posted:So what should us new guys (and potentially low buy-in traders) be looking to do to maximize on election night? Wait for the FUD to hit during the day / as the results come in and keep a cool head & quick finger. Be careful to only play the sides of swings that you wouldn't mind being stuck holding in case the site crashes
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Nov 8, 2016 04:13
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Trucked in from the Trump thread. Just bought some Blue TX. Looking forward to reading all these posts.
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Nov 8, 2016 04:15
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weekly font posted:So what should us new guys (and potentially low buy-in traders) be looking to do to maximize on election night? This is just my manner of trading anything, really, but I would just have everything locked in and ready to go by tomorrow morning and then don't even log in until Wednesday morning. When it comes to button mashing, you're not going to beat the professional button mashers who have technical setups we don't. But that's just me--it might be possible to sling around shares profitably as the results trickle in. I wish you luck!
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Nov 8, 2016 04:17
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Turmpers are dumping yuuuge amounts of money into Pence yes right now. Get in while the getting is good
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Nov 8, 2016 04:18
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in on tx, nc, oh, and ga for hillary she better not gently caress this up because my future as a politics gambler is at stake
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Nov 8, 2016 04:43
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BiohazrD posted:Turmpers are dumping yuuuge amounts of money into Pence yes right now. Get in while the getting is good  I'm getting in on yes garland as well.
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Nov 8, 2016 04:56
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this is a memorial to those who lost their money in the final t v c polling market pi reminded you of one crucial rule: never bet on polls RIP (edit: srsly tho that was a bullshit flip, RIP)
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Nov 8, 2016 05:06
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should probably go to bed but i'm too enthralled watching my g/l fluctuate +/- $250 in seconds
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Nov 8, 2016 05:38
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jarofpiss posted:in on tx, nc, oh, and ga for hillary she better not gently caress this up because my future as a politics gambler is at stake We'll be rich soon, friend. Soon. (I went with Arizona instead of Texas myself.)
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Nov 8, 2016 05:45
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Social Studies 3rd Period posted:this is a memorial to those who lost their money in the final t v c polling market Was losing bigly til that final pre-Reuters spasm where several flips put me just barely into the black. I'm going to miss that market.
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Nov 8, 2016 05:57
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Signed up an account just to put money on Blue Texas because i love America. this is pretty neat.
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Nov 8, 2016 06:22
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