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BiohazrD posted:Pence no is still under 80. I put a few more bucks in.  bring me the dough and tears of Trumpheads!
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Nov 8, 2016 07:02
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weekly font posted:So what should us new guys (and potentially low buy-in traders) be looking to do to maximize on election night? See my summary post a bit above yours for some simple plays, depending on your risk tolerance. For the advanced stuff, I'm curious as well if Necc0 or someone else could expand with examples of what to look for while today goes on. Early reports being out of line with the final probable outcome, I'm guessing, but no idea where/when that's likely to happen.
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Nov 8, 2016 12:57
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Nosre posted:See my summary post a bit above yours for some simple plays, depending on your risk tolerance. The corncob list will be a good starting place or any other right-wing thought leaders. You'll need to mash refresh on both the market and these threads where we watch them but they will likely latch on to ~anything~ that they can interpret as good news. They won't be able to swing the massive markets more than a few points but smaller state markets may become very volatile as they manage to purchase through the 'walls' To identify a 'thin' market that's probably going to swing like crazy keep an eye on the open orders. You'll notice a 'clumping' around wherever the price currently is that buyers have to chew through in order to get any significant motion. Things get interesting when the walls in BOTH directions manage to fall. The small amount of outstanding shares allows the rush of new purchases to cause massive swings in price. That's how you can identify them at least. I'm generally an extremely conservative better so I almost never play with hot markets. Someone like Vox can hopefully chime in on how to best exploit them.
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Nov 8, 2016 13:27
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sold off my maxed out REP 370 NO shares at 94c in the night and just maxed out DEM YES and a few parallel markets that i wasn't already maxed in. really hoping she doesn't gently caress this whole plan up while im at work today. i think im gonna buy a sweet motorcycle with my winnings
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Nov 8, 2016 14:32
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I've got 50 on 400+ EV One last lotto ticket 
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Nov 8, 2016 14:45
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dangling pointer posted:I've got 50 on 400+ EV Alright you guys are getting sort of silly Or maybe I'm gonna be sticking my foot in my mouth on this later tonight
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Nov 8, 2016 15:04
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NC is the only state that has me feeling shook on any of my bets, aside outside chance low-$ bets that I've already counted as larks. That African American turnout....
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Nov 8, 2016 15:06
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I put like $30 total between Ohio and NC. So it's whatever if I lose them, but I really really want Hdawg to take both to dunk on the cheeto man
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Nov 8, 2016 15:35
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Necc0 posted:Alright you guys are getting sort of silly To be clear I don't see it happening, and don't expect it to. Just wanted a fun lotto ticket so I used part of the money I won from betting no handshake in the third debate (lol). Besides that my riskiest market if FL, which I'm tempted to get out of now. I'm maxed at ~46 Rep NO, I'm on the fence about riding out FL.
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Nov 8, 2016 15:40
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My lotto ticket is 50 shares of Democrats winning Alaska. It's less than the cost of a movie ticket and if it happens, I get to brag to all my friends about calling it. For anyone looking for interesting bets, check out the House race for MN-2. Sabato has it lean Democrat but it's a tossup on PredictIt. Caveat that it's CPVI is R+2, but the Republican incumbent retired and the Dems put a lot of money in trying to flip it. Looks like one of the better bargains left to me.
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Nov 8, 2016 16:57
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To the people who have stupid amounts of money tied up in this, are you mostly using house money at this point or are you dumping huge amounts of your own cash into Predictit?
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Nov 8, 2016 17:12
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Dogwood Fleet posted:To the people who have stupid amounts of money tied up in this, are you mostly using house money at this point or are you dumping huge amounts of your own cash into Predictit? I am dumping my own money into Predictit.
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Nov 8, 2016 17:22
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predictit does not consider the presidential election important enough to make the "featured markets" page vp, fine vote margin, fine who wins? gently caress that, who would be interested in that
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Nov 8, 2016 17:24
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That might be due to the trader limit being reached for Pres markets. People would leave with blue balls if they click through and discover they can't bet on Clinton/Trump.
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Nov 8, 2016 17:27
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evilweasel posted:predictit does not consider the presidential election important enough to make the "featured markets" page Probably because it is full up and they'd rather direct newcomers to markets they can actually participate in.
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Nov 8, 2016 17:27
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Vox Nihili posted:Probably because it is full up and they'd rather direct newcomers to markets they can actually participate in. Yup it's this. Dogwood Fleet posted:To the people who have stupid amounts of money tied up in this, are you mostly using house money at this point or are you dumping huge amounts of your own cash into Predictit? I'll have enough money in it that vacuuming determined but unsettled markets will be profitable enough to be worthwhile. Gonna let it grow for a bit before cashing out
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Nov 8, 2016 17:49
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DMCrimson posted:That might be due to the trader limit being reached for Pres markets. People would leave with blue balls if they click through and discover they can't bet on Clinton/Trump. Got in on this market but can't buy the cheaper no trump!
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Nov 8, 2016 18:01
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Where do I get all this house money to gamble?
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Nov 8, 2016 18:07
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Trump just filed a lawsuit against clark county get on "NOCONCEDE" while you can
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Nov 8, 2016 19:17
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Necc0 posted:The corncob file lol this is the handle for my fake trump twitter
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Nov 8, 2016 19:21
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BiohazrD posted:Trump just filed a lawsuit against clark county Doubling my shares. Thanks, fam.
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Nov 8, 2016 19:29
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when should we start seeing these markets go off the rails? i need to be sober enough to handle money but also drunk enough to survive this night. this is quite the tightrope i'm walking
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Nov 8, 2016 21:31
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BiohazrD posted:Trump just filed a lawsuit against clark county Apparently that suit has already been dismissed. Must be a record for the Clark County legal system.
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Nov 8, 2016 21:39
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I know the answer but just in case, it's a 25% federal income tax on all of these, right? THIS WOULDN'T HAVE HAPPENED UNDER A TRUMP PRESIDENCY (in the sense that I wouldn't have had any winnings to tax).
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Nov 8, 2016 21:42
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:I know the answer but just in case, it's a 25% federal income tax on all of these, right? On winning bets here? It'd be ordinary income, I believe (can't imagine it'd count as a capital gain). So whatever your marginal rate is. Also see an accountant if the number is big enough.
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Nov 8, 2016 21:45
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i know some of you may be disappointed that in short time there won't be wild markets to take money out of people's pockets but take solace in the fact that (if things go according to plan) there is about to be a week of the most fulfilling comments on predictit that you may ever see also i wouldn't be surprised if there is a fare share of trump supports looking to 'break even' after their loss so keep an eye on any tangentially related markets to swing heavy
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Nov 8, 2016 21:46
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jarofpiss posted:when should we start seeing these markets go off the rails? i need to be sober enough to handle money but also drunk enough to survive this night. this is quite the tightrope i'm walking They might not. The markets will only go nuts when there's a ton of uncertainty. If everything winds up being a clean cut tonight then it'll be boring. Keep an eye on results that stay near 50/50 as the tallies come in and also watch the 'biggest movers' page.
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Nov 8, 2016 21:51
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Agronox posted:On winning bets here? It'd be ordinary income, I believe (can't imagine it'd count as a capital gain). Correct, it's considered miscellaneous income. If you make enough they will automatically issue you a Form 1099-MISC.
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Nov 8, 2016 21:56
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So for example apparently the WV gubernatorial is going bonkers : https://www.predictit.org/Browse/BiggestMovers
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Nov 8, 2016 21:58
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Thought on Blutah? At 6c with Hillary up on the early vote seems safer than Texas for lotto tickets.
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Nov 8, 2016 22:01
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deathbysnusnu posted:Thought on Blutah? At 6c with Hillary up on the early vote seems safer than Texas for lotto tickets. Haven't seen mcmuffin numbers yet, so I'd lean GOP.NO
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Nov 8, 2016 22:01
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deathbysnusnu posted:Thought on Blutah? At 6c with Hillary up on the early vote seems safer than Texas for lotto tickets. Hillary is extremely unlikely to win Utah. I'd put it about on par with Texas. Her ceiling is so low that even a perfect split only nets her a tie, and recent polls have shown Trump reclaiming votes from McMuffin.
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Nov 8, 2016 22:16
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Necc0 posted:So for example apparently the WV gubernatorial is going bonkers : https://www.predictit.org/Browse/BiggestMovers Low volume markets are always going to be more volatile, regardless of it being election day. The first bit of craziness should come when the exit poll results start coming out (starting at 5:00 EST I believe). Immediately after the polls close and states start releasing vote totals is when you'll see strong movement from the heavily traded markets. Common sense should tell you to look at where votes have yet to come in from before panic selling (if Trump is barely ahead in a state with 80% of the vote in, but the remaining votes a all from densely populated urban areas, don't sell your DEM.YES shares at a loss yet).
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Nov 8, 2016 22:50
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IM DAY DAY IRL posted:but take solace in the fact that (if things go according to plan) there is about to be a week of the most fulfilling comments on predictit that you may ever see Everyone, please be on the lookout for the best PI-related meltdowns. Emotions combined with losing money is the perfect combination for schadenfreude, even better than the saltmine Twitter lists.
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Nov 8, 2016 23:05
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"Per CBS News, the exits have Trump only +1 in GA. Not good for him."
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Nov 9, 2016 01:12
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Ended up deciding to toss $75 on Florida going Dem. If I'm wrong I'll still be up from the overall Dem win. Wish I'd had that line of thought last night when I could have doubled my FL money 
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Nov 9, 2016 01:17
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Currently up 600 and drunk as hel lol
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Nov 9, 2016 02:04
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jarofpiss posted:Currently up 600 and drunk as hel lol Same. Drinking tequila in honor of our Latinos who will save America from Trump. Salud!
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Nov 9, 2016 02:06
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tangy yet delightful posted:Ended up deciding to toss $75 on Florida going Dem. If I'm wrong I'll still be up from the overall Dem win. Wish I'd had that line of thought last night when I could have doubled my FL money Got out of this with a $13 loss. The uncalled counties went heavy Trump in 2012. I think he takes FL. edit: Got into Ohio with RepNO for 65c. edit2: For anyone curious I'm using politico's election map data from 2012 to determine how many net votes each county that hasn't turned in results yet will get each candidate. My sample size is all of FL and OH so far, but I think with some minor refinement this could be a useful strategy for playing day of results with money you can afford to lose. tangy yet delightful has issued a correction as of 02:33 on Nov 9, 2016 |
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Nov 9, 2016 02:21
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florida tanked heavy, currently in mid 40s, not looking great. has anyone besides tangy cut bait?
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Nov 9, 2016 02:34
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