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Atrocious Joe posted:It's sort of insane how cosmopolitan and non-white are getting associated as synonyms in some post-election takes Agreed.
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Nov 11, 2016 04:41
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:Join any kind of socialist party that provides direct assistance services to the people in your community. The PSL is a good one if they're in your area. A lot of people should go back and read up on the Black Panthers' Free Breakfast Program to get a good idea of exactly the kind of work that we're going to need in the near future. um i think you'll find the black panthers were terrorists? i heard they even openly carried assault rifles
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Nov 11, 2016 04:41
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HannibalBarca posted:https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/796914768854519808 Hahaha remember when we all pointed and laughed at Trumps obviously bullshit voter psychology modelling firm?
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Nov 11, 2016 04:42
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Man Musk posted:that the mobilisation (or not) of this or that demographic was decisive;
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Nov 11, 2016 04:41
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Typo posted:he genuinely believes what he says on trade and immigration (and absolutely nothing else) hasn't he massively benefited from free trade? is he really that loving stupid?
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Nov 11, 2016 04:41
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in the meantime, I am looking for ways to volunteer with the PSL while getting my rear end handed to me in DC:SS my magic rogue starved to death in a labyrinth 
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Nov 11, 2016 04:42
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Princess Di posted:They seem like a great start to me too. I'm sure this is a delicate topic for you, and it's one of the places where these things get tricky and where words like privilege start to matter, because I've never been scared to talk to the most rural of the rural cause I'm a white dude with a big beard and a nice car, but I don't think that everyone out in the sticks hates you personally. I talked with a Trump voter today about this, in our local community college there's actually a lot of women in hijabs and abayas. I expressed my worry that Trump's election could signal to them that they're not wanted here, that they aren't really a part of America. She was horrified at the prospect that her vote signaled that, she never wanted to send that signal and wouldn't have ever wanted to indicate that she didn't think those people, some of whom she's classmates with, belong here. How did she not think Trump's election wouldn't signal this? I donno, but I think it's for the same reason a lot of us were blindsided by how seriously people took the populist part of Trump's campaign. We weren't listening for it. Deporting all muslims? She didn't take that seriously, and didn't think that anyone else did. Just like we didn't think anyone took Trump's pledge to bring back manufacturing seriously. I honestly don't believe that everyone out in the boonies is as hateful as we fear. I honestly don't think the world is as hateful as we fear it is. Rural people are people just like everyone else. They laugh and love and make mistakes and make wrong assumptions. They get caught up in fear and hate and disappointment just like everyone does. They're lonely and ashamed and angry and just want the world to be a place they're happy with. Again, I've never had to be afraid. So I know this sounds like I'm talking out my rear end at you. But I genuinely believe that rural whites even in the middle of goddamn nowhere don't actually hate you as much as you might think. They, after all, are just people. No one is a monster. We're just all human beings.
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Nov 11, 2016 04:41
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Man Musk posted:that the mobilisation (or not) of this or that demographic was decisive; Yeah. I see that. I see it.
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Nov 11, 2016 04:41
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HannibalBarca posted:https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/796914768854519808 machine learning! big data! microtargeting! algorithms!
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Nov 11, 2016 04:43
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Lastgirl posted:
Thank you, Lastgirl. 
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Nov 11, 2016 04:43
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I'll look into it when things calm down. Thank you for reminding me, namaste.
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Pomp posted:um i think you'll find the black panthers were terrorists? in all seriousness do not go on cop killing sprees and do not embezzle $$$ from your free breakfast programs to fund your crack cocaine addiction like a certain revolutionary did
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Nov 11, 2016 04:43
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mrmcd posted:Hahaha remember when we all pointed and laughed at Trumps obviously bullshit voter psychology modelling firm? Right? 
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Nov 11, 2016 04:43
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Larry Parrish posted:Abandon the festering corpse of neoliberalism and support the PSL folks pumpkin spice latte?
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Nov 11, 2016 04:43
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Venom Snake posted:I had a conference call that talked about this today! I hope mook is sent out to sea on a raft! thanks for this post it made me laugh a lot
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Nov 11, 2016 04:43
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KiteAuraan posted:hasn't he massively benefited from free trade? is he really that loving stupid? yes
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Nov 11, 2016 04:44
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LinYutang posted:machine learning! big data! microtargeting! algorithms! Glad to see that the AI rebellion has been postponed.
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Nov 11, 2016 04:43
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just a reminder that in 2008 obama and the democrats owned congress and had a mandate for change they proceeded to spend the next 2 years licking the boots of wall street and having the corporations write the healthcare reform law blame the democrats for a trump presidency and congress
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Nov 11, 2016 04:44
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KIND OF A KIM DEAL posted:If you are actually truly that serious about American politics then maybe instead of balloon-pulling other good people having harmless fun and de- compressing during off-hours while don't you get off your computer and go accomplish something real and positive instead of just sitting on your rear end and D&D posting faux-intellectual garbage on a comedy web subforum? im your biggest fan kim deal
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Nov 11, 2016 04:44
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HannibalBarca posted:https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/796914768854519808 eh, i think this sort of thing is inevitable. youre never going to have perfect information
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Nov 11, 2016 04:44
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DaveWoo posted:https://twitter.com/CASOSvote/status/796885789502124032 Trump's % of the vote could easily drop to 46%. Remember all those people saying "Trump can't possibly break past his ceiling of 43-45% of the vote?" If Trump ends up winning on 46%, maybe those people weren't so wrong, they just forgot that you can win with a vote total that small.
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Nov 11, 2016 04:45
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LinYutang posted:machine learning! big data! microtargeting! algorithms! i feel it would be poetic of the silicon valley bubble burst right about now
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Nov 11, 2016 04:45
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Atrocious Joe posted:Bobby Mook is the name of a Star Wars character that fucks up planning a rebel assualt lmbo
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Nov 11, 2016 04:48
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Grondoth posted:How did she not think Trump's election wouldn't signal this? I donno, but I think it's for the same reason a lot of us were blindsided by how seriously people took the populist part of Trump's campaign. We weren't listening for it. Deporting all muslims? She didn't take that seriously, and didn't think that anyone else did. Just like we didn't think anyone took Trump's pledge to bring back manufacturing seriously. The woman you spoke with is subconsciously racist. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 11, 2016 04:49
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Typo posted:lol You might post that but you are clearly quite sad on the inside and fairly insecure about it. It's pretty obvious cause I've been around the block a few times.  ...and I say that with  because I've been there and it was one of the best things I've ever done.Good luck!  Al! posted:im your biggest fan kim deal Thank you so much!! New record coming next year - Last Splash line-up, almost wrapped up with the final, final touches...which reminds me gotta run. KIND OF A KIM DEAL has issued a correction as of 04:54 on Nov 11, 2016 |
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Nov 11, 2016 04:50
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Oh Snapple! posted:i feel it would be poetic of the silicon valley bubble burst right about now If Trump restructures H1Bs then SV is in trouble. I think Apple, MS, and Google are the only big tech companies with actual cash reserves and all three would be hosed with corporate tax reform. Also if there is other investment opportunities made available besides being a VC then a lot of the money wells dry up.
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Nov 11, 2016 04:50
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Venom Snake posted:I had a conference call that talked about this today! I hope mook is sent out to sea on a raft! how likely is keith for dnc chair. i'm writing out a spreadsheet of all the dnc committee members i can find contact info for so people can e-mail/call/write for keith should i keep going
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Nov 11, 2016 04:51
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Locker Room Zubaz posted:If Trump restructures H1Bs then SV is in trouble. I think Apple, MS, and Google are the only big tech companies with actual cash reserves and all three would be hosed with corporate tax reform. Also if there is other investment opportunities made available besides being a VC then a lot of the money wells dry up. Do I sell my stock now or a little later
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Nov 11, 2016 04:52
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Vox Nihili posted:eh, i think this sort of thing is inevitable. youre never going to have perfect information Which is exactly why the data should be a supplementary tool and not the foundation of your campaign.
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Nov 11, 2016 04:52
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Typo posted:in all seriousness do not go on cop killing sprees and do not embezzle $$$ from your free breakfast programs to fund your crack cocaine addiction like a certain revolutionary did GOD I said I'm sorry, jeez.
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Nov 11, 2016 04:51
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KIND OF A KIM DEAL posted:You might post that but you are clearly quite sad on the inside and fairly insecure about it. It's pretty obvious cause I've been around the block a few times. I'm not American nor have I lived/worked in the US since 2 years ago 
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Nov 11, 2016 04:52
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i think it a bad idea to hire someone with a last name that remind me of a insult from the 1920's. you mook!
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Nov 11, 2016 04:52
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Vox Nihili posted:eh, i think this sort of thing is inevitable. youre never going to have perfect information It totally is. Like, even assuming 30% of the voters they targeted were Trump voters, and the encouragement for Clinton and Trump voters was about equal, that still puts Clinton up +40. We're getting out the circular firing squad already and blaming everything but the fundamentals lmao Like Mook hosed up but it wasn't because they used big data it was because they didn't sanity check and go "wait, our algorithms are saying we can just abandon our traditional base who are dying from literal toxic water. Is this true?" Their actual fuckup was not going "okay, we run the worst case scenario. Assume Donald Trump is actually winning. This is what we need to do to make him lose." and then doing that. Forcing Trump to play defense in AZ was not a dumb thing, but they should have also played defense in the rust belt, if nothing else because just in case. Like, even a 1% turnout swing there would have made her President. You make sure your safe states are safe assuming the other guy is likely to win, and then you crush them. I guess the problem is that Obama throughly out-dataed Romney in 2012 and laughed all the way to the bank with that information advantage, but I suspect his operation also didn't assume Romney was going to poo poo the bed, it always assumed Romney was gonna be running a super-competitive campaign. The tools are powerful, but they aren't infallible.
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Nov 11, 2016 04:53
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sportsgenius86 posted:Which is exactly why the data should be a supplementary tool and not the foundation of your campaign. can we rule out the possibility that Robby Mook's computer model may have been designed so incompetently that they inserted some reverse-Bill Mitchell protocol into the algorithm that fudged basic numbers and assumptions on the basis of the idea that Clinton's victory was inevitable like can we actually rule that out, in light of everything we've seen and heard? HannibalBarca has issued a correction as of 04:57 on Nov 11, 2016 |
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Nov 11, 2016 04:54
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sportsgenius86 posted:Which is exactly why the data should be a supplementary tool and not the foundation of your campaign. Whaaaaaa?! You mean using algorithms and data to optimize and predict all forms of human behavior is somehow a lovely premise upon which to make all our social decisions?
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Nov 11, 2016 04:55
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Oh Snapple! posted:i feel it would be poetic of the silicon valley bubble burst right about now They are going to get sued for trying to pressure trump supporters and get owned big league. Then Peter Thiel is going to snap everything up and become the vampire lord of America.
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Nov 11, 2016 04:54
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Lastgirl posted:Ok, thank you. ya, i think i will ignore politics for a week and focus on self health and family, but this thread have been fantastic, it kind of serve as a sort of a calming tool that is not going panic mode. i wouldn't mind a politic forum where it more like a cobeart report and not a last week at john oliver of D&D.
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Nov 11, 2016 04:58
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Do check back when this subforum gets formalized, it will be a lot more calmer if you want to participate in the discussions. There will probably be more generalized topics that isn't about elections.
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Locker Room Zubaz posted:If Trump restructures H1Bs then SV is in trouble. I think Apple, MS, and Google are the only big tech companies with actual cash reserves and all three would be hosed with corporate tax reform. Also if there is other investment opportunities made available besides being a VC then a lot of the money wells dry up. H1Bs do not have significantly lower avg salary and do not make up that big part of the workforce even in SV
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Nov 11, 2016 04:59
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Locker Room Zubaz posted:If Trump restructures H1Bs then SV is in trouble. I think Apple, MS, and Google are the only big tech companies with actual cash reserves and all three would be hosed with corporate tax reform. Also if there is other investment opportunities made available besides being a VC then a lot of the money wells dry up. If their business plan requires exploiting foreign workers to artificially depress wages of citizens and permanent residents then it is probably a lovely business plan and deserves to die to be honest.
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Nov 11, 2016 05:03
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HannibalBarca posted:can we rule out the possibility that Robby Mook's computer model may have been designed so incompetently that they inserted some reverse-Bill Mitchell protocol into the algorithm that fudged basic numbers and assumptions on the basis of the idea that Clinton's victory was inevitable If you're serious rather than just ragging on Clinton's op, yes. First off, these algorithms and assumptions are often created by computers, rather than by human assumptions. Second, Clinton's assumptions were the same as Trump's and the RNC's. The Obama coalition existed and was engaged, and they'd tend to stay engaged. The suburbanite swing voter was important, while the white working class would turn out at relatively low rates which makes up for how a lot of them vote R. These assumptions aren't unreasonable. The RNC's might actually have been more favorable to Clinton-there were rumors that they were freaking out because Trump had put the House in play. What none of them predicted was that all the former-union guys who voted D would stay home and all the swing voters in that class would be super mad enough to vote R. Computers are better 99% of the time than gut instinct, but they tend to fail pretty bad when they run into black swan events. This was a black swan. It's also why my concern isn't that the Ds are gonna not learn the right lessons and lose in 2020, my concern is that the Ds are not going to learn the right lessons and cruise on the fact that Trump is almost certainly going to be a huge fuckup and win. That's even worse because we wasted a good learning experience and 4 years for nothing. Neeksy posted:Whaaaaaa?! You mean using algorithms and data to optimize and predict all forms of human behavior is somehow a lovely premise upon which to make all our social decisions? In a lot of these modeling and predictive fields-the machine gets you much more accurate information than people. They just failed to catch the black swan. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 11, 2016 05:02
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Zikan posted:how likely is keith for dnc chair. God bless you.
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Nov 11, 2016 05:04
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