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fknlo
Jul 6, 2009


Fun Shoe

Fojar38 posted:

The people who put Trump in the white house are not loyal GOP voters.

They may not be loyal GOP voters but they've put Republicans completely in control of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio. I didn't even know that until I looked it up today. I definitely agree that assuming any of those was even remotely a lock was a huge fuckup.

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Mister Facetious
Apr 21, 2007

I think I died and woke up in L.A.,
I don't know how I wound up in this place...

:canada:

Oprah/Kanye '20

"Back in Black" :whatup:

Business Gorillas
Mar 11, 2009

:harambe:



Nevvy Z posted:

2. This thread isn't what racist white poeple were basing their votes on.

i'm not worried about the racist white people, i'm worried about the people that sat home. we ran the most milquetoast, establishment candidate ever this time around. i'm a lot more curious as to what kept those people home as opposed to what brought the angry whites that voted for the equivalent of an endless scream alternating between "WETBACKS" and "SAND MONKEYS"

turns out if you run around calling everyone who doesn't agree with you lockstep a racist and a bigot, they'll either stay at home or vote for actual racists and bigots

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

Sephyr posted:

They'll just make up for the crazy promises they can't deliver by making GBS threads way harder on the other side.

"Yeah, we didn't rebuild the rust belt, but look, we kicked all theses leeches off welfare! And no more silly climate change studies!"

That culture war crap will be enough to tide them over for at least one term.

I'm not so sure of that. The economy's going to suffer under Trump, to one degree or another. When he can't bring those jobs back, he's going to have a much harder time with GOTV in 2020.

XyrlocShammypants posted:

Practically no one works in coal anyway, so I don't get why these people have any power at all.

It helps, unfortunately, that places like Kentucky and West Virginia have as many Senators as California and New York, and subtantially more electoral votes per capita.

e: I did some quick math and WV has double the per capita electoral votes as CA.

e2: yaaay my math was bad, edited.

Majorian fucked around with this message at 03:30 on Nov 12, 2016

Cup Runneth Over
Aug 8, 2009

She said life's
Too short to worry
Life's too long to wait
It's too short
Not to love everybody
Life's too long to hate


Majorian posted:

I'm not so sure of that. The economy's going to suffer under Trump, to one degree or another. When he can't bring those jobs back, he's going to have a much harder time with GOTV in 2020.

Populist candidates generally fail in the long term when they don't live up to their promises and the populace moves on to the next charismatic individual. Unlike Obama, Trump never had any intention of even attempting to follow through on his. The Dems should be poised to offer their own in 2020.

Business Gorillas
Mar 11, 2009

:harambe:



pretty much all of the political knowledge we had is gone now, but reminder that hillary literally ran on being the status quo and being the lesser of two evils. she took it all the way to the super bowl and lost against an fat orange quarterback with tiny hands

chumbler
Mar 28, 2010

Business Gorillas posted:

turns out if you run around calling everyone who doesn't agree with you lockstep a racist and a bigot, they'll either stay at home or vote for actual racists and bigots

So if you call them what they are they'll prove you right?

Cup Runneth Over
Aug 8, 2009

She said life's
Too short to worry
Life's too long to wait
It's too short
Not to love everybody
Life's too long to hate


chumbler posted:

So if you call them what they are they'll prove you right?

It's somewhat disingenuous to suggest you can't create racists and bigots. It's not something you're born as.

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

Cup Runneth Over posted:

Populist candidates generally fail in the long term when they don't live up to their promises and the populace moves on to the next charismatic individual. Unlike Obama, Trump never had any intention of even attempting to follow through on his. The Dems should be poised to offer their own in 2020.

Absolutely. I know a lot of folks don't think Warren has the charisma chops to do it, but I think she's been upping her game substantially over the past few years. I'm looking forward to seeing what she becomes by then.

Business Gorillas
Mar 11, 2009

:harambe:



chumbler posted:

So if you call them what they are they'll prove you right?

either that or they'll sit at home and cause at least four years of darkness ymmv

PKJC
May 7, 2009

chumbler posted:

So if you call them what they are they'll prove you right?

If you light a candle at midnight and call someone a racist three times they will wake up with 14/88 tattooed on their chest.

Business Gorillas
Mar 11, 2009

:harambe:



"what could have possibly caused all of these liberal people to stay at home? i bet it was me not telling them they were racist enough" - the charred remains of the D&D hivemind

Ever Disappointing
May 4, 2004

Majorian posted:

Absolutely. I know a lot of folks don't think Warren has the charisma chops to do it, but I think she's been upping her game substantially over the past few years. I'm looking forward to seeing what she becomes by then.

Exactly, and even though she might not cut it in 2020, this is the time for rising stars in the Democratic Party to start, well, rising. The bench was depleted, and we are now living the nightmare. We need to keep an eye on the democrats who do the best job resisting and sticking to their values.

PKJC
May 7, 2009

Majorian posted:

Absolutely. I know a lot of folks don't think Warren has the charisma chops to do it, but I think she's been upping her game substantially over the past few years. I'm looking forward to seeing what she becomes by then.

gently caress it, I need something to lift my mood

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8HfGAx8coE

If people aren't bullshitting about hating the establishment, and being angry at the big banks and Wall Street, and wanting someone willing to hold them accountable, yes she would absolutely have the chops by then if that's the direction she chooses to go. She actually feels like the type who is a serious firebrand when it comes to the things she advocates for and cares about.

Evil Fluffy
Jul 13, 2009

Scholars are some of the most pompous and pedantic people I've ever had the joy of meeting.

Spaced God posted:

https://twitter.com/virgiltexas/status/797221054372528128

DNC interm is hanging out with Milo.
Because gently caress the world

This kind of person is getting purged from the party if/when Ellison and others take over, right?

Winkie01 posted:

https://twitter.com/JillDLawrence/status/797189675538595841


hahahahahahahahahahah GOP wrote a lot of checks they know they can't cash.

I'd be tempted to collect this and other articles for a giant "I TOLD YOU THIS WOULD HAPPEN" post to Trumpists I know but they wont give a gently caress even if they'd read the articles instead of dismiss them outright. At this point I'm just going to keep a few of them as friends on facebook to see if/when they realize they got played like suckers.

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

Business Gorillas posted:

"what could have possibly caused all of these liberal people to stay at home? i bet it was me not telling them they were racist enough" - the charred remains of the D&D hivemind

Yes, I'm sure that what people said that hurt your fee-fees on an online message board swayed hundreds of thousands of votes in key states.

Tir McDohl posted:

Exactly, and even though she might not cut it in 2020, this is the time for rising stars in the Democratic Party to start, well, rising. The bench was depleted, and we are now living the nightmare. We need to keep an eye on the democrats who do the best job resisting and sticking to their values.

I keep saying it - Sanders is going to be a kingmaker this cycle. I'm looking forward to seeing who runs in 2020.

ErIog
Jul 11, 2001

:nsacloud:

Majorian posted:

I keep saying it...

Yeah, we all heard you the first time.

Who the gently caress knows what's going to happen with the primaries in 2018/2019. I'm feeling Bookermentum.

disjoe
Feb 18, 2011


Spaced God posted:

https://twitter.com/virgiltexas/status/797221054372528128

DNC interm is hanging out with Milo.
Because gently caress the world

Does she have explosives strapped to her chest?

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

ErIog posted:

Yeah, we all heard you the first time.

:flipoff: Sue me, I want to be optimistic in the face of this lovely, lovely week.

Evil Fluffy posted:

This kind of person is getting purged from the party if/when Ellison and others take over, right?

I'm kind of flummoxed that she didn't get the boot after she bungled Gore's 2000 campaign.

Sharkopath
May 27, 2009

Majorian posted:

Yes, I'm sure that what people said that hurt your fee-fees on an online message board swayed hundreds of thousands of votes in key states.

I know it's not universal because this is also just a collection of random people on the internet but if you actually abandon identity politics at a time when minorities are the most uncertain of the future and distrustful of the entire political system why would they vote for your populist economics only candidate, distrust of will and intentions cost bernie the minority vote.

Also understand cause this is a circular conversation that keeps happening if you're talking about having both as part of the platform this statement doesn't apply to you, but people keep wandering in making the same point that calling people racist or caring about minority issues is the ultimate evil for some drat reason.

Taerkar
Dec 7, 2002

kind of into it, really

Cup Runneth Over posted:

It's somewhat disingenuous to suggest you can't create racists and bigots. It's not something you're born as.

You also don't turn someone into a racist or bigot by calling them one when they're not.

Business Gorillas
Mar 11, 2009

:harambe:



Sharkopath posted:

I know it's not universal because this is also just a collection of random people on the internet but if you actually abandon identity politics at a time when minorities are the most uncertain of the future and distrustful of the entire political system why would they vote for your populist economics only candidate, distrust of will and intentions cost bernie the minority vote.

Also understand cause this is a circular conversation that keeps happening if you're talking about having both as part of the platform this statement doesn't apply to you, but people keep wandering in making the same point that calling people racist or caring about minority issues is the ultimate evil for some drat reason.

Both should absolutely be part of the platform, but that's a two-way street. Trump won on economics, not on racist whites. There was a very deliberate attempt by some people to try and make the election just about identity politics by painting economic progressivism as somehow racist. Trump's message, while insane and impossible, was better than the Establishment Liberal, which ranged anywhere from an indifferent shrug of "well those jobs aren't coming back anyways" to seething contempt.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

Spaced God posted:

https://twitter.com/virgiltexas/status/797221054372528128

DNC interm is hanging out with Milo.
Because gently caress the world

Talk about deplorables.

Mnoba
Jun 24, 2010
Imagine if Milo gets some sort of post lmao

Mister Facetious
Apr 21, 2007

I think I died and woke up in L.A.,
I don't know how I wound up in this place...

:canada:

Taerkar posted:

You also don't turn someone into a racist or bigot by calling them one when they're not.

"You're either with us, or against us."
- Dubya

Funny how Dems are using that now against their own...

Krabboss
Nov 11, 2016

MY HUSBAND'S PARSE IS BETTER THAN YOURS

Business Gorillas posted:

Both should absolutely be part of the platform, but that's a two-way street. Trump won on economics, not on racist whites. There was a very deliberate attempt by some people to try and make the election just about identity politics by painting economic progressivism as somehow racist. Trump's message, while insane and impossible, was better than the Establishment Liberal, which ranged anywhere from an indifferent shrug of "well those jobs aren't coming back anyways" to seething contempt.

I mean, the answer really is that those jobs aren't coming back, though. And there was policies proposed to try and help these communities, but you're not going to come out at a rally and say "Hey sorry, your jobs are gone forever and we need to transition your community into doing something else." So it gave the impression those communities were being totally ignored, but the Democratic party had a better idea of what to do with them.

That doesn't mean Hillary would have done nearly enough to support these communities though, it's just that Trump's economic plans can really only serve to make everybody poorer.

Benny the Snake
Apr 11, 2012

GUM CHEWING INTENSIFIES

Business Gorillas posted:

pretty much all of the political knowledge we had is gone now, but reminder that hillary literally ran on being the status quo and being the lesser of two evils. she took it all the way to the super bowl and lost against an fat orange quarterback with tiny hands

My first impulse was to compare the Democrats to the 07 Patriots to go along with your metaphor but they're worse than that-they're the LA Rams right now. Just like how HC Jeff Fischer continues to start inept QB Case Keenum while sitting on the phenom Jared Goff to the frustration of Rams everywhere, the DNC started flawed candidate HRC while brushing aside the much more magnetic Bernie Sanders to the enormous protest of democrat voters everywhere. The Rams will go 7-9 this season and while I might celebrate that as a Seahawks fan, the Dems lost to the single worst possible candidate and now I'm terrified :stonk:

Benny the Snake fucked around with this message at 03:09 on Nov 12, 2016

Shammypants
May 25, 2004

Let me tell you about true luxury.

Mister Macys posted:

"You're either with us, or against us."
- Dubya

Funny how Dems are using that now against their own...

So woke, very woke, drat

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!
gently caress Joe Mancin btw.

cheese
Jan 7, 2004

Shop around for doctors! Always fucking shop for doctors. Doctors are stupid assholes. And they get by because people are cowed by their mystical bullshit quality of being able to maintain a 3.0 GPA at some Guatemalan medical college for 3 semesters. Find one that makes sense.

Majorian posted:

It helps, unfortunately, that places like Kentucky and West Virginia have as many Senators as California and New York, and subtantially more electoral votes per capita.

e: I did some quick math and WV has something like 20 times the per capita electoral votes as CA, which is...pretty loving galling.
What the sweet gently caress are you talking about? West Virginia has 1.85m people and 5 electoral votes, or one for every 370k votes. California has 38.8m people and 55 electoral votes, or one for every 705k people. They have almost double CA's per capita electoral votes (not 20 times), but then again, Texas has basically the same ratio with one electoral vote for every 709k people (and it is a red state).

The smallest states, because they receive 3 electoral votes (one of each of their senators and one for their house member) have the highest ratio, which levels off towards the 1 to 700k ratio as states get bigger.

PKJC
May 7, 2009

Mister Macys posted:

"You're either with us, or against us."
- Dubya

Funny how Dems are using that now against their own...

Hi, you're a racist!

Now, did the previous sentence cause you to think more negatively about any ethnic minorities?

Kilroy
Oct 1, 2000
So, while we're discussing whether and how the Democratic party will be pushed to the left over the next two years, I'm looking at past historical elections and right now I'm looking really closely at 1980. Populist Presidential candidate humiliates the Democrats and enacts a series of sweeping reforms the fallout of which we continue to deal with today. In 1984 the Democrats run Walter Mondale who is reasonably to the left, also they run the first female VP on the ticket. They get their asses absolutely handed to them and the lovely polities enacted by Reagan are cemented into the fabric or our government, into how a lot of people think about how the world works at a basic level, and Reagan becomes a Christ figure for the Right.

Oh and Reagan is involved in a shitload of serious, even treasonous, scandals and no one gives a poo poo.

Thoughts:

  • I don't really know Mondale's politics that well. I know that by 1984 neoliberalism was already a driving force in the party, but I think it was in about the same place progressivism is now - the center of gravity was shifting in that direction but people still remembered the New Deal coalition and the Democratic party was still seen as the party of the working class. To what degree was Mondale any different from Carter?
  • Reagan actually won the popular vote in 1980. His victory was clear and while the Left seemed to see what was coming and already hated his guts, he had mandate and the basic support of the people who were ready for something different. People weren't protesting across the country on the scale they are right now, when he was elected.
  • Reagan took office during an serious economic recession and right after the humiliation of America in Iran. The recovery which has been steadily improving things during the Obama administration hasn't been good enough (clearly) but the numbers are up. On the other hand many people perceive the economy to be in the shitter, and that's more important than the numbers. Still, I don't think Trump is going to be able to take credit for a favorable business cycle or anything like Reagan could. In foreign affairs though, Obama has done reasonably well combating ISIS, but not enough to tie it off. They are probably going to be defeated early in Trump's first term and Trump is going to take credit for that 100%.
  • On that note, Reagan's administration is when income inequality really took off and has never looked back. It wasn't, compared to what we have now, that serious an issue then, and was not on the mind of most voters. It kinda is now and I don't think it will improve under Trump - it will almost certainly accelerate.

I'm convinced that progressivism is the way forward and the more recent examples of the 2006 and the 2008 elections bear that out. Still, are there parallels here? Are we at risk of a 1980-1984/type situation and if so, what can we do to avoid it?

Dancer
May 23, 2011

Business Gorillas posted:

Both should absolutely be part of the platform, but that's a two-way street. Trump won on economics, not on racist whites. There was a very deliberate attempt by some people to try and make the election just about identity politics by painting economic progressivism as somehow racist. Trump's message, while insane and impossible, was better than the Establishment Liberal, which ranged anywhere from an indifferent shrug of "well those jobs aren't coming back anyways" to seething contempt.

You're setting up a massive strawman. Hillary campaign on min wage, on affordable healthcare, on paid family leave, etc. Economic policy was just as much a part of her platform as women's rights and civil rights.

Also I'm pretty sure I followed the same campaign you did, and I am genuinely at a loss as to what you might mean with the "very deliberate attempt". The closest thing I can think of is when a bunch of people said that berniebros may have been racist or sexist. I legit cannot think of a single moment right now where someone said or implied that minimum wage is racist, or cheaper student loans is racist or something like that.

Mister Facetious
Apr 21, 2007

I think I died and woke up in L.A.,
I don't know how I wound up in this place...

:canada:

PKJC posted:

Hi, you're a racist!

Now, did the previous sentence cause you to think more negatively about any ethnic minorities?

It caused me to think negatively of the clueless white tower gently caress who's completely out of touch with my economic, medical, social, and education worries, and has spent the last forty years deregulating, or refusing to deal with them.

MY income demographic as a majority voted Hillary. Where was yours, upper class man?

Mister Facetious fucked around with this message at 03:13 on Nov 12, 2016

Dancer
May 23, 2011

Taerkar posted:

You also don't turn someone into a racist or bigot by calling them one when they're not.

No, but accusations of racism that are unfounded, or perceived as such may very well predispose people to failing to recognize actual racism ("oh he's just imagining things/playing the race card")

speng31b
May 8, 2010

Dancer posted:

No, but accusations of racism that are unfounded, or perceived as such may very well predispose people to failing to recognize actual racism ("oh he's just imagining things/playing the race card")

This is going to happen whether the accusations are legitimate or not and this kind of hand wringing is pretty loving silly.

Boot and Rally
Apr 21, 2006

8===D
Nap Ghost
This whole episode reminds me of the late 90s when conservatives were in a tizzy because of Bill Clinton's penis related activities but the general population just could not give a gently caress because the economy was good. Fifteen or so years later it seems like Democrats made the exact same mistake in expecting people to care about anything more than the economy.

Panzeh
Nov 27, 2006

"..The high ground"

Dancer posted:

You're setting up a massive strawman. Hillary campaign on min wage, on affordable healthcare, on paid family leave, etc. Economic policy was just as much a part of her platform as women's rights and civil rights.

Also I'm pretty sure I followed the same campaign you did, and I am genuinely at a loss as to what you might mean with the "very deliberate attempt". The closest thing I can think of is when a bunch of people said that berniebros may have been racist or sexist. I legit cannot think of a single moment right now where someone said or implied that minimum wage is racist, or cheaper student loans is racist or something like that.

Hillary ran on an economic platform that was very acceptable to Goldman Sachs and was very very careful not to expound on any position other than that because she believes finance is and should continue to be the supreme force in american politics.

speng31b
May 8, 2010

Boot and Rally posted:

This whole episode reminds me of the late 90s when conservatives were in a tizzy because of Bill Clinton's penis related activities but the general population just could not give a gently caress because the economy was good. Fifteen or so years later it seems like Democrats made the exact same mistake in expecting people to care about anything more than the economy.

Actually a really good comparison. Doesn't overstate support for Trump - the key here being "could not give a gently caress" which seems to have been true for most voters. Trump's economic message wasn't particularly effective and neither was Clinton's, and with low turnout the GOP wins.

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Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

Sharkopath posted:

I know it's not universal because this is also just a collection of random people on the internet but if you actually abandon identity politics at a time when minorities are the most uncertain of the future and distrustful of the entire political system why would they vote for your populist economics only candidate, distrust of will and intentions cost bernie the minority vote.

:agreed: Plus, as I mentioned in the election thread, broad social welfare programs aimed at all low-income people haven't always done the best job of addressing the unique obstacles that different minority groups face.

cheese posted:

What the sweet gently caress are you talking about? West Virginia has 1.85m people and 5 electoral votes, or one for every 370k votes. California has 38.8m people and 55 electoral votes, or one for every 705k people. They have almost double CA's per capita electoral votes (not 20 times), but then again, Texas has basically the same ratio with one electoral vote for every 709k people (and it is a red state).

Oops, you're right, my math was bad. Still, my point is, that differential is by design. Big states get dinged, small states get major advantages in electing presidents.

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