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Grouchio posted:How have Algeria and Morocco been doing since the Arab Spring? How are their economies, their living standards and their human rights? I have not heard a peep from them besides the occasional Berber Rights milestone. Algeria made some sort of concessions early on I think, trying to mimic gulf states by placating the populace with some increased spending in social services. I think. But Algeria is a place to watch. Its long-time leader very well could be dead already, and even if alive is way too old and sick to actually run the place. Instead top military and intelligence dudes run the show, with it not being clear who the the real power is. This is a tenuous situation. Once a formal transition of power takes place, there's a chance the whole creaky facade will just come down. And re: communism, the Tudeh party in Iran was a big deal before the revolution. Put down hard by the Shah, it played a big role in the revolution and contributed to making some of the islamist parties more economically socialist. But Tudeh itself, despite success against the government, got purged hard by Islamist groups in the power vacuum.
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Nov 23, 2016 18:30
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Count Roland posted:But Algeria is a place to watch. Its long-time leader very well could be dead already, and even if alive is way too old and sick to actually run the place. No, no he couldn't be. He's seen in public like once a week, including today. They're not getting blindsided by Bouteflika being old and sick. When he dies they aren't going to try to cover it up. There's succession stuff in the works, but it's still not clear as far as I know how that's going to play out. It's not a straightforward thing.
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Nov 23, 2016 18:47
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Volkerball posted:No, no he couldn't be. He's seen in public like once a week, including today. They're not getting blindsided by Bouteflika being old and sick. When he dies they aren't going to try to cover it up. There's succession stuff in the works, but it's still not clear as far as I know how that's going to play out. It's not a straightforward thing. Oops, I'm out of date. Some months ago international newspapers were speculating the guy was dead, as he hadn't been seen for a while. I guess he got better!
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Nov 23, 2016 19:04
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So I know some of the closest cooperation between the YPG and Russia/SAA came just after the Kurds and regime came into conflict in Hasakah, but it sure seems like the Kurds are going out of their way to piss everyone off at a pretty precarious time right now. https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/801498130248302601
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Nov 23, 2016 20:20
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White Helmets hosed up a photo op: https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/800836481216561152/pu/vid/1280x720/ldf6I8ZDVj9xMNq7.mp4
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Nov 23, 2016 21:07
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Kiejzar posted:White Helmets hosed up a photo op: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mannequin_Challenge hth
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Nov 23, 2016 21:22
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Cirofren posted:... Sykes-Picot borders... Why does this thing always come back up when historically it was never applied, nor even really defined? People drop the Sykes-Picot name as a lazy way to mention colonial occupation.
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Nov 23, 2016 21:52
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Cat Mattress posted:Why does this thing always come back up when historically it was never applied, nor even really defined? People drop the Sykes-Picot name as a lazy way to mention colonial occupation. Blame the Daily Show.
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Nov 23, 2016 21:57
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Kiejzar posted:White Helmets hosed up a photo op: Predictably RT is giving plenty of air time to those with the opinion this is hard evidence the White Helmets fake all their videos: https://www.rt.com/op-edge/367957-white-helmets-mannequin-challenge/ Totally PR backfire, RFS and the White Helmets put out a statement each on it http://syriacivildefense.org/event/syria-civil-defence-scd-respond-rfs-video-mannequin-challenge https://rfsmediaoffice.com/en/2016/11/23/rfs-statement-clarification/#.WDYJ_vmLRPa
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Nov 23, 2016 22:29
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Cat Mattress posted:Why does this thing always come back up when historically it was never applied, nor even really defined? People drop the Sykes-Picot name as a lazy way to mention colonial occupation. I agree that Sykes-Picot is used lazily and so on, especially in the Middle East, but to say that it wasn't applied or defined is a little OTT and also wrong.
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Nov 23, 2016 22:53
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Some kind of home made cannon firing solid shot. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzotRe0VjRU
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Nov 23, 2016 23:20
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Throatwarbler posted:Some kind of home made cannon firing solid shot. Pirates making big gains in Syria.
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Nov 24, 2016 00:02
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Fully a medieval conflict now.
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Nov 24, 2016 00:09
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The hellcannon has received some upgrades I see. Incidentally, goddamn is "hellcannon" a cool name for garage cannons. That thing looks like it came from an ottoman museum though. Like a literal cast bronze cannon, which is baffling. Where could you make such a thing in Syria nowadays? I didn't think there were any real foundries left standing.
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Nov 24, 2016 00:22
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I like how the second (Third? it looks like the video is out of order) shot hits and bounces right back the way it came.
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Nov 24, 2016 01:01
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Many things have happened: https://twitter.com/IraqiSecurity/status/801366298424987648 quote:IMPORTANT: https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/801434132756598784 quote:Manbij Military Council (SDF) have taken control of Arimah from IS after storming the town from 3 axis, Turkey-FSA continue attacks on SDF https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/801524795032608769 quote:Qabasin is still under #ISIS control. #FSA didn't recapture the town yet. Rebel sources also reporting this.  Everything is coming down to Al Bab.
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Nov 24, 2016 01:52
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Saladin Rising posted:Everything is coming down to Al Bab. It's still confusing to me why the Manbij forces decided to brave Turkey's artillery and air force without seeming to have any protection of their own. We have admittedly seen multiple victories against forces with air superiority in this conflict, but it's hard to see how any short-term victory could be sustained this close to the Turkish border without outside assistance that doesn't seem to be forthcoming. I hope they know what they're doing and have some strategy here beyond hoping they can spook the US into muzzling Erdogan, because it's going to be pretty sad if they end up losing Manbij after a quixotic attempt to link the cantons. The Efrin Kurds have been awfully quiet while this has been going on awfully close to them, which makes me wonder if Russia's instructed them to stay in place if they want continued protection from Turkish airstrikes throughout their territory. Russia's said they see the Kurds as a key component of the political endgame for Syria, so it seems they aren't quite ready to cede the entire north of the country to Turkey just yet.
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Nov 24, 2016 02:20
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Is there any reason for the SDF to believe that the SDF capturing Al-Bab won't result in Erdogan sending an armour division at it? Is Turkey's army so badly purged that the current Euphrates Shield deployment is all they can send? It seems unlikely.
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Nov 24, 2016 03:08
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Asehujiko posted:Is there any reason for the SDF to believe that the SDF capturing Al-Bab won't result in Erdogan sending an armour division at it? Is Turkey's army so badly purged that the current Euphrates Shield deployment is all they can send? It seems unlikely. Turkey has more than enough strength to conquer the entire Kurdish regions of both Syria and Iraq if it came down to it, but mounting a full invasion of a neighboring country tends to be frowned upon these days,, so international norms and US/Russian pressure have kept Turkey in an at least an ostensible support role instead. Erdogan's staked a lot of credibility on Al-Bab being a key target of the Euphrates Shield operation though, and is still riding a wave of anti-Kurdish nationalism to maintain his power at home as he purges the opposition, so it's hard to see him backing down from it.
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Nov 24, 2016 05:03
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NikkolasKing posted:Dunno if this is really a good place to ask but why not. America's War for the Greater Middle East: A Military History was published this year and is the prestige entry in the genre, released this year. Focused on military events specifically but still good https://www.amazon.com/Americas-War-Greater-Middle-East-ebook/dp/B0174PRIY4
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Nov 24, 2016 05:26
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Sinteres posted:It's still confusing to me why the Manbij forces decided to brave Turkey's artillery and air force without seeming to have any protection of their own. We have admittedly seen multiple victories against forces with air superiority in this conflict, but it's hard to see how any short-term victory could be sustained this close to the Turkish border without outside assistance that doesn't seem to be forthcoming. I hope they know what they're doing and have some strategy here beyond hoping they can spook the US into muzzling Erdogan, because it's going to be pretty sad if they end up losing Manbij after a quixotic attempt to link the cantons. Even if they somehow managed to link the cantons it would be a Pyrrhic victory at this point. The link would be a very long and narrow salient with hostile FSA/Turkish forces to the North and unpredictable SAA/Russia to the south. It'll be a crazy long front-line in open flat desert with nowhere to fall back to - not really a defensible position in the long run.
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Nov 24, 2016 09:03
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Sinteres posted:Turkey has more than enough strength to conquer the entire Kurdish regions of both Syria and Iraq if it came down to it, but mounting a full invasion of a neighboring country tends to be frowned upon these days,, so international norms and US/Russian pressure have kept Turkey in an at least an ostensible support role instead. Erdogan's staked a lot of credibility on Al-Bab being a key target of the Euphrates Shield operation though, and is still riding a wave of anti-Kurdish nationalism to maintain his power at home as he purges the opposition, so it's hard to see him backing down from it. Turkey will probably just wait until SDF is engaged in al Bab and then just club them down when their strength is sapped from the fight. If your goal is to destroy the territorial ambitions of Syrian kurds then you can more effectively do that when they have stretched themselves thin and exhausted their strength fighting a faction you care little about.
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Nov 24, 2016 09:03
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Big news for fans of irony https://twitter.com/RamiAlLoIah/status/801603661839351808
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Nov 24, 2016 10:25
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Brown Moses posted:Big news for fans of irony Was it hacked?
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Nov 24, 2016 11:12
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green on blue (?) in Syria, sounds like a clusterfuck over there with how many factions? Turkish soldiers killed by Syrian air strikes: Military
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Nov 24, 2016 11:17
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Bates posted:Even if they somehow managed to link the cantons it would be a Pyrrhic victory at this point. The link would be a very long and narrow salient with hostile FSA/Turkish forces to the North and unpredictable SAA/Russia to the south. It'll be a crazy long front-line in open flat desert with nowhere to fall back to - not really a defensible position in the long run. Simple solution: give that strip of desert in the middle to the US for a megabase.
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Nov 24, 2016 11:58
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Svartvit posted:I agree that Sykes-Picot is used lazily and so on, especially in the Middle East, but to say that it wasn't applied or defined is a little OTT and also wrong. This article has been shared a few times in this thread already: quote:As historical explanation, the Sykes-Picot map does have some flaws. There are numerous versions of it, some considerably more misleading than others, especially with their creative use of colors and patterns to make the thing look as much as possible like the current map of the region. Nevertheless, the original 1916 version, signed by Mark Sykes and François Georges-Picot, is commonly used today (see the above image). The red-shaded area in the lower right of the map was to be under direct British rule. I will call this red area “Iraq,” since that is what it was called at the time, by Arabic and Turkish speakers as well as by some European officials and geographers. It included most of the Ottoman provinces of Basra and Baghdad but not the Ottoman province of Mosul or the desert region now called Anbar in western Iraq. In Sykes-Picot, it also included a significant area not in present-day Iraq, a long slice of the eastern Arabian Peninsula encompassing present-day Kuwait and the coast of present-day Saudi Arabia down to Qatar (not fully displayed on the 1916 map). Sykes-Picot was never applied, nor even really defined. Brown Moses posted:Big news for fans of irony Turkey suspends Twitter; Twitter suspends Turkey.
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Nov 24, 2016 13:08
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speaking of turkey http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/turkey-eu-membership-suspended-negotiations-erdogan-vote-a7436256.html quote:The European Parliament has voted to freeze long-term plans for Turkey to join the EU in what is widely seen as a response to Ankara’s crackdown on political opposition and independent media since July’s failed coup.
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Nov 24, 2016 13:54
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Looks like the Efrin Kurds may have woken up after all. The Livemap has them and the SAA moving east toward Al Bab, and regime planes bombing a building that had Turkish troops in it.
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Nov 24, 2016 15:15
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I hope Turkey and SAA get into a slapfight. 
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Nov 24, 2016 15:18
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Turkey's expressing outrage that anyone would want to stop them from fighting ISIS, and promises to respond to the attack.
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Nov 24, 2016 15:29
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https://twitter.com/metesohtaoglu/status/801783960200040448 When you thought there couldn't be more people involved in the country. Egypt chimes in.
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Nov 24, 2016 15:54
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Cat Mattress posted:This article has been shared a few times in this thread already: I skimmed through both of the articles in the series and from what I understand the author does not once even question that Sykes-Picot was applied or that it was defined. Rather, she argues that the contemporary border of Iraq not a direct result of the Sykes-Picot agreement, as do the bolded parts of your quote.
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Nov 24, 2016 16:18
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Kiejzar posted:White Helmets hosed up a photo op: MEMEing in a warzone.  Not sure if it helps or hurts them in the long run.
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Nov 24, 2016 16:41
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cochise posted:MEMEing in a warzone. The Assadists are claiming this is proof, if proof was needed, that everything the White Helmets has every done is fake. RT is making sure it gets plenty of coverage, pretty much anyone else doesn't really care.
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Nov 24, 2016 17:03
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Brown Moses posted:Predictably RT is giving plenty of air time to those with the opinion this is hard evidence the White Helmets fake all their videos: Wouldn't using real victims in this social media bandwagon be considered cheating?
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Nov 24, 2016 17:14
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Brown Moses posted:The Assadists are claiming this is proof, if proof was needed, that everything the White Helmets has every done is fake. RT is making sure it gets plenty of coverage, pretty much anyone else doesn't really care. How dare those guys make propaganda.
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Nov 24, 2016 17:28
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Svartvit posted:I skimmed through both of the articles in the series and from what I understand the author does not once even question that Sykes-Picot was applied or that it was defined. Rather, she argues that the contemporary border of Iraq not a direct result of the Sykes-Picot agreement, as do the bolded parts of your quote. And since the SPA was about defining the contemporary borders of Iraq, Syria, and neighboring countries, the fact that these SPA borders have never come close to being made official, and all the official border-fixing that happened was completely disconnected from the SPA, it doesn't mean to you that SPA was never applied? As for defined, see again all the stuff about nobody having any idea what the "A" and "B" areas were supposed to be. A single independent country? Two separate, independent countries in a confederation? Who cares anyway, that never happened actually, since, again, Sykes-Picot was never applied.
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Nov 24, 2016 18:49
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So Assad forces are cooperating with Kurds and bombing the Turkish Army, and Sisi in Egypt is turning pro-Assad. How long before Egyptian F16s and AH64s join the fight on Assad's side?
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Nov 24, 2016 19:02
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Throatwarbler posted:Some kind of home made cannon firing solid shot. What a time to be alive. A weapon to surpass Metal Gear.
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