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https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/803247655778328576
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Nov 28, 2016 17:30
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They rule over rubble and the dead.
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Nov 28, 2016 17:39
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Thug Lessons posted:Some FSA groups are saving themselves by retreating to Sheikh Maqsud. Good luck with that, considering the recent twist in the war.
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Nov 28, 2016 17:40
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Seems like rebel resistence just collapsed in Northern Aleppo. Regime forces must just have walked into most of those districts yesterday, there aren't even reports of particularly intense fighting. Or fighting at all for that matter. I suspect the election of Trump was a big blow to morale. Rightly or wrongly (probably wrongly) there was a definite thought that, just hold out until the 20th Jan and Hilary will be riding to the rescue. But Hilary was beaten, by a guy who is chummy with Putin. The US isn't coming to help, and the rebels outside the city have failed to break the siege. What hope is there of resistance, never mind victory? I'm still surprised though tbh, I was expecting a street by street, if not room by room slog, and given SAA skittishness I didn't expect to see any advances inside Aleppo at all for perhaps six months or a year. But well, here we are. And if East Aleppo falls, what is the point of other pockets like Eastern Ghouta continuing to try and resist? The Southern Front certainly isn't riding to the rescue. mediadave fucked around with this message at 18:13 on Nov 28, 2016 |
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Nov 28, 2016 18:04
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Rebel unity has seemingly completely dissolved. Apparently Ahrar moved its headquarters from Idlib to Jarabulus. Looks like the diehards are going to go down fighting, while the rest join up with Turkey and give up on overthrowing Assad.
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Nov 28, 2016 18:13
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Redmark posted:Rebel unity has seemingly completely dissolved. Apparently Ahrar moved its headquarters from Idlib to Jarabulus. Looks like the diehards are going to go down fighting, while the rest join up with Turkey and give up on overthrowing Assad. And the Kurds are going to throw their weight in with Assad because America doesn't want to go against NATO member Turkey to defend them.
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Nov 28, 2016 18:16
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Good. I'm glad all of this bullshit is finally coming to a head.
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Nov 28, 2016 18:21
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Redmark posted:Rebel unity has seemingly completely dissolved. Apparently Ahrar moved its headquarters from Idlib to Jarabulus. Looks like the diehards are going to go down fighting, while the rest join up with Turkey and give up on overthrowing Assad. Granted, the Ildib pocket may last a while simply because of the number of entrench fighters there. Obviously without Aleppo the battle is lost in the long term, especially since entire government detachments there are going to be sent westward fairly soon. Playing the YPG and Turkey off each other probably works for both Assad and Russia, the YPG is acting as a pretty decent buffer zone. I guess the question is what the Saudis and the Gulf states have planned because it looks like they lost big time all over the map.
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Nov 28, 2016 19:18
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Ardennes posted:I guess the question is what the Saudis and the Gulf states have planned because it looks like they lost big time all over the map. From which account to take the money that will be needed to rapidly expand the domestic security.
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Nov 28, 2016 19:45
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Ardennes posted:Granted, the Ildib pocket may last a while simply because of the number of entrench fighters there. Obviously without Aleppo the battle is lost in the long term, especially since entire government detachments there are going to be sent westward fairly soon. Idlib isn't a pocket in any sense, it still is connected to Turkey. And while it is hard to envision a scenario now where Assad gets overthrown it is still difficult to imagine a total defeat or loss for the rebels. The battle isn't lost, it just might not be winnable, if these makes sense.
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Nov 28, 2016 20:02
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My understanding is that Idlib looks big but doesn't have any large population centers on the scale of Aleppo so even if the rebels control it they are essentially a local rural insurgency instead of a broad national movement and control nothing that the country really cares about. Also with no big cities and civilians to hide in amongst you become pretty vulnerable to planes and tanks.
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Nov 28, 2016 20:13
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Squalid posted:Idlib isn't a pocket in any sense, it still is connected to Turkey. And while it is hard to envision a scenario now where Assad gets overthrown it is still difficult to imagine a total defeat or loss for the rebels. The battle isn't lost, it just might not be winnable, if these makes sense. The capture of Aleppo would free up tens of thousands of SAA + aligned troops. It's hard to envision a scenario where Idlib *isn't* taken and resistance reduced to an insurgency. If the recent attempt to break the siege had been successful then we would be talking about negotiated peace as the most likely outcome, but right now it's looking more and more like the Assad regime could very well win this war
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Nov 28, 2016 20:22
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FeedingHam2Cats posted:The capture of Fallujah would free up tens of thousands of US + aligned troops. It's hard to envision a scenario where Ramadi *isn't* taken and resistance reduced to an insurgency. If the recent attempt to break the siege had been successful then we would be talking about negotiated peace as the most likely outcome, but right now it's looking more and more like the US could very well win this war Volkerball fucked around with this message at 20:34 on Nov 28, 2016 |
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Nov 28, 2016 20:31
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Squalid posted:Idlib isn't a pocket in any sense, it still is connected to Turkey. And while it is hard to envision a scenario now where Assad gets overthrown it is still difficult to imagine a total defeat or loss for the rebels. The battle isn't lost, it just might not be winnable, if these makes sense. From the past six months of activity it is very unclear if the rebels are capable of withstanding the Assadian faction's numbers, their material advantage, Russian air power and the use of elite troops. I am unaware of a single failure in the field when those four variables were joined together. Just as how the closure of dozens of pockets throughout Syria swelled the Assadian numbers to allow a breakthrough in Aleppo it is likely that the closure, or dramatic reduction, of the rebel pocket in Aleppo will trigger a similar cascade affect throughout the rest of the fronts. We are seeing the end phase of the 'Army in Every Corner' stratagem that, while unworkable without the superior foreign backing provided by Russia and Iran, has finally begun to pay massive dividends. While the North East may be temporarily lost to the Kurds that can be ironed out either through reconcilation with the Turks or the Kurds themselves. Considering the current situation, I am thinking the latter because the federalization of Kurdish Syria plays perfectly into the Putin's perspective of federalization as a valid means of expansion through foreign policy. It would prevent conflict between the two most powerful factions left standing. The Kurds also have enough goodwill in the West that Assad securing their existence against Turkey would play well and make the Assadian victory more palatable. I have to say that the TFSA getting cockblocked just outside Al-Bab is one of the more clever moments of this war. Russia and Syria 'wink wink, nod nod''d Erdogan's incursion into northern Syria and allowed them to battle ISIS (two foes bleeding each other) while those same rebels fighting in the TFSA were drawn from fighters that otherwise would have been used in either the Hama or Aleppo offensives where they might have actually hurt Assad. Now that the TFSA is being actively bombed and a hybrid Kurdish/SAA force is pushing east from Afrin the situation has gotten about as complicated as it's going to get, yet Erdogan will be the one to back down when it comes to Turkish troops fighting militias openly backed by the Syrian government.
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Nov 28, 2016 20:35
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Nobody's denying that some level of insurgency will continue. It remains to be seen if Assad has enough manpower left to keep his boot on the neck of the people once the foreign militias withdraw, but an end appears to be in sight for rebel groups openly challenging the regime on the battlefield. Brother Friendship posted:I have to say that the TFSA getting cockblocked just outside Al-Bab is one of the more clever moments of this war. Russia and Syria 'wink wink, nod nod''d Erdogan's incursion into northern Syria and allowed them to battle ISIS (two foes bleeding each other) while those same rebels fighting in the TFSA were drawn from fighters that otherwise would have been used in either the Hama or Aleppo offensives where they might have actually hurt Assad. Now that the TFSA is being actively bombed and a hybrid Kurdish/SAA force is pushing east from Afrin the situation has gotten about as complicated as it's going to get, yet Erdogan will be the one to back down when it comes to Turkish troops fighting militias openly backed by the Syrian government. I wouldn't bet on Turkey being stymied outside Al-Bab just yet, but even if they capture it, it seems hard to justify holding it forever. I have to imagine the Turkish people will get sick of enduring losses in hostile occupied territory after a while too, and wonder why that's any better than just building a wall.
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Nov 28, 2016 20:41
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Sinteres posted:Nobody's denying that some level of insurgency will continue. It remains to be seen if Assad has enough manpower left to keep his boot on the neck of the people once the foreign militias withdraw, but an end appears to be in sight for rebel groups openly challenging the regime on the battlefield. Who's withdrawing? Did insurgents in Iraq ever have an issue with manpower? It's not a "remains to be seen" situation. There's well over 100,000 rebels in Syria armed to the teeth with substantial backing from multiple foreign actors, and they will have overwhelming public support in the areas where the bulk of the fighting will be, since, as the insurgency and not the occupier, the fighting will be done on their terms. That it took longer than a few months for the regime to force the uprising to fight unconventionally, a task they still haven't achieved, makes it extremely clear that the regime doesn't have a shot in hell at establishing security in Syria. It's an insurgency that makes the one in Iraq look like a daycare, and the SAA is a massively incompetent force from top to bottom. The death tolls, the fighting, the displacement of civilians, none of that poo poo is going to change. The battle lines will just become more fluid. But the rebels will always control a significant part of Syria, and time is on their side. Every day the fighting goes on is a win for them, as each day requires the regime sacrifice centralization in favor of battlefield effectiveness. The disparity between what Syria was before the war and what it is now gets that much greater. The regimes allies get one day closer to having to downsize their efforts. The Syrian state collapses just that much more. And the rebels have nothing but time. This war is not going to end as long as Assad is in power.
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Nov 28, 2016 21:01
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https://twitter.com/DrPartizan_/status/803274414271827968quote:YPG find a hell cannon left behind by Jihadists in Bustan Pasha neighbourhood. Shelling on Şêx Meqsud killed more than a hundred civilians.
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Nov 28, 2016 21:04
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Brother Friendship posted:From the past six months of activity it is very unclear if the rebels are capable of withstanding the Assadian faction's numbers, their material advantage, Russian air power and the use of elite troops. I am unaware of a single failure in the field when those four variables were joined together. Just as how the closure of dozens of pockets throughout Syria swelled the Assadian numbers to allow a breakthrough in Aleppo it is likely that the closure, or dramatic reduction, of the rebel pocket in Aleppo will trigger a similar cascade affect throughout the rest of the fronts. We are seeing the end phase of the 'Army in Every Corner' stratagem that, while unworkable without the superior foreign backing provided by Russia and Iran, has finally begun to pay massive dividends. Sorry, Ildib is not a pocket, it is a salient. Aleppo was sucking up a ton of resources for Assad and if anything the SAA was weak on so many fronts because since Aleppo was a manpower sink. If those troops are redirected to other fronts, it is hard not to see advances happen especially since they will be likely still be backed by Russian air support. In addition, it is doubtful ISIS will be much of a distraction any longer, they may last just long enough for Trump to claim credit. Furthermore, the Kurds are now pretty much the perfect buffer/distraction that is drawing away further attention and manpower from other fronts. It make take some time, but it is hard not to see the rebels on a permanent back foot at this point. If anything the relative weakness of the latest breakout attempt was a clear sign that the rebels have had the wind knocked out of them. It is still very possible an insurgency could hold out in the mountains along the Turkish border but it would be a pretty compact area.
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Nov 28, 2016 21:21
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I would be rather surprised if Erdogan let Assad drive all the way to his border without doing anything about it. Would the Russians really have the balls to start bombing Turkish tanks if those start rolling over the border in numbers? Without Russian air support and Iranian militias, Assad doesn't imo have much chance of really rolling the FSA much further up north without the danger of a massive escalation.
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Nov 28, 2016 21:28
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Friendly Humour posted:I would be rather surprised if Erdogan let Assad drive all the way to his border without doing anything about it. Would the Russians really have the balls to start bombing Turkish tanks if those start rolling over the border in numbers? Without Russian air support and Iranian militias, Assad doesn't imo have much chance of really rolling the FSA much further up north without the danger of a massive escalation. I think the plan at the moment is to allow the YPG to "contain" Turkish backed forces in the north, Assad may allow Turkey to effectively occupy that area for years to come. In all honesty its only strategic value is to drive a wedge between the YPG cantons. I don't know if Erdogan would work actively to stop a march on Ildib at this point especially since Russian air power is going to be involved and Assad will freed up elite forces. Turkey could go in, but it doesn't gain them much at considerable cost. At this point Turkey has more or less silently admitted Assad is saying around, but they are never going to let up on the Kurds.
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Nov 28, 2016 21:37
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Really if Aleppo falls, the people worst affected by it will be the civilians in the city who will have to face the regimes reprisals, not the rebels. It's likely that it would come down to another coordinated surrender where the rebels are allowed to leave with their weapons so that Assad can have the PR victory, which doesn't provide a military advantage, and puts more territory into their hands that they have to keep secure.
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Nov 28, 2016 21:39
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https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2016/02/05/yemens-bombed-water-infrastructure/ Have we found out who did this yet? Seems like one of the great mysteries of the conflict, but bellingcat hasn't had a conclusive update since February that I could find, unless someone has a link.
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Nov 28, 2016 22:39
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Volkerball posted:
If this was late 2015 this would be an accurate statement
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Nov 28, 2016 22:54
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FeedingHam2Cats posted:If this was late 2015 this would be an accurate statement Feel free to join the masses who have predicted that the end of this thing was just around the corner since 2011. Not one has been right yet.
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Nov 28, 2016 23:02
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Friendly Humour posted:I would be rather surprised if Erdogan let Assad drive all the way to his border without doing anything about it. Would the Russians really have the balls to start bombing Turkish tanks if those start rolling over the border in numbers? Without Russian air support and Iranian militias, Assad doesn't imo have much chance of really rolling the FSA much further up north without the danger of a massive escalation. Well, article 5 doesn't apply if your forces are in someone else's country. Given how chummy Erdogan and Putin have been lately, it looks like there's a ton of diplomatic carrots and sticks that we can't see from here. We'd see relations break down before tanks move in or aircraft bomb them, I think.
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Nov 28, 2016 23:17
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Volkerball posted:Feel free to join the masses who have predicted that the end of this thing was just around the corner since 2011. Not one has been right yet. It's fine to say that the future for Assadists isn't going to be sunshine and rainbows just because they win in Aleppo, but pretending that losing the city isn't a major setback for rebels that fought two costly land battles trying to relieve it is absurd.
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Nov 28, 2016 23:38
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Aleppo megathread on r Syrian Civil War, lots of good info in there (most of this post is pulled from the megathread): https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/5f7rg2/aleppo_compilation_thread/ Thug Lessons posted:Some FSA groups are saving themselves by retreating to Sheikh Maqsud. https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/status/803110756841558016 quote:#Syria #Aleppo Some #FSA group stationed in #Hullok from Northern Democratic Battalion pledged to #SDF https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/803166739781468163 quote:A number of militants have surrendered to Syrian Army & are aiding their advance into east Aleppo, others have defected to SDF like in Halek https://twitter.com/Syria_Rebel_Obs/status/802960522824089600 quote:#SRO - According to local contact, two small autonomous #FSA battalions arrived in #Aleppo #SDF territory. Weapons taken by #SDF On that note of families fleeing from the areas mentioned above: https://twitter.com/DrPartizan_/status/803187007040135168 quote:YPG Aleppo General Command: Our forces freed 6000 civilians by opening up a humanitarian corridor in Bustan Pasha and Hallok neighbourhoods. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_4YCAmiGKY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LgDkb9Q2u8 Map of the area: https://twitter.com/Souria4Syrians/status/803255563383541760 quote:1. Kurdish source: there is large YPG presence in Bustan Al Basha. And Minimal presence in Halek and Ayn Tal districts Can I just say, GODDAMN that's a huge collapse by the rebels! 
Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 23:50 on Nov 28, 2016 |
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Nov 28, 2016 23:40
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I never thought it was odd. Smaller FSA groups have switched sides to SDF under pressure before. It happened a lot back when SDF took Tel Rifaat.
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Nov 29, 2016 00:05
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https://twitter.com/jimmurphySF/status/803313844768673792
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Nov 29, 2016 00:28
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The thing to keep in mind is that a lot of these armed groups are local defense militia. They aren't necessarily interested in overthrowing Assad, reinstating regime control, establishing a communist utopia, or bringing about the Caliphate 2.0; they're just interested in making sure the people who are interested in these various ideologies will not murder them and their neighbors. Switching sides is merely a result of adapting to changing circumstances.
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Nov 29, 2016 00:29
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Cat Mattress posted:The thing to keep in mind is that a lot of these armed groups are local defense militia. They aren't necessarily interested in overthrowing Assad, reinstating regime control, establishing a communist utopia, or bringing about the Caliphate 2.0; they're just interested in making sure the people who are interested in these various ideologies will not murder them and their neighbors. Switching sides is merely a result of adapting to changing circumstances. All sides are bad - People being bombed and sniped by the regime daily for 5 years. No, they have been defending people from Assad, and now that they're failing, people are running for their lives. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/28/world/middleeast/aleppo-syria.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share https://twitter.com/kshaheen/status/802982654908002304 https://twitter.com/JettGoldsmith/status/803322493973004289
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Nov 29, 2016 00:38
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I have to imagine at least some of the non-jihadist groups and civilians would have preferred to surrender some time ago if they'd had the choice. I'm not saying people won't suffer, and haven't already suffered, at the hands of the regime, but being forced by the jihadists to remain in a city that became a battlefield didn't help either.
Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 00:48 on Nov 29, 2016 |
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Nov 29, 2016 00:38
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Who gives a gently caress. United States does this all the time.
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Nov 29, 2016 00:39
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Nov 29, 2016 00:40
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Sinteres posted:I have to imagine Seems to be the basis for a lot of your perspectives.
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Nov 29, 2016 00:48
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Volkerball posted:Seems to be the basis for a lot of your perspectives. Says the guy who thinks the plucky moderate rebels are coasting from strength to strength as Aleppo falls.
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Nov 29, 2016 00:49
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Volkerball posted:Seems to be the basis for a lot of your perspectives. Your imagination has led you to believe that al-Qaeda controlling Syria would not actually result in al-Qaeda controlling Syria because the people would spontaneously rise up to overthrow them. You are not in a position to criticize anyone for living in a fantasy world.
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Nov 29, 2016 00:52
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That's no bullshit and to the point. America writes a liability notice on those leaflets and calls it a day.
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Nov 29, 2016 01:03
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Sinteres posted:Says the guy who thinks the plucky moderate rebels are coasting from strength to strength as Aleppo falls. It'll definitely be the extremists who benefit. The situation regarding them is about to get much worse.
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Nov 29, 2016 01:17
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Volkerball posted:It'll definitely be the extremists who benefit. The situation regarding them is about to get much worse. If you'd said this when the war started you would be a prophet.
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Nov 29, 2016 01:34
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