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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/797515793437257728 
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Nov 12, 2016 23:01
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holy poo poo, really glad i only went in on B5 No
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Nov 13, 2016 00:35
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Yay, I played it smart. Will either make $50 or $500 profit depending.
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Nov 13, 2016 00:40
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If it really does end up that there were 135 million votes cast but only ~120 million were counted by the day after election day, that's a pretty stunning indictment of our vote counting. I had been assuming total votes would be 132-133 million, 135 million like Cohn is suggesting would mean that turnout was actually significantly up as a percentage from 2012.
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Nov 13, 2016 19:30
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he responded later with this: https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/797516023087906816 Patter Song posted:If it really does end up that there were 135 million votes cast but only ~120 million were counted by the day after election day, that's a pretty stunning indictment of our vote counting. I think it's just the absentee/VBM votes? So it's a much more manual/time-consuming process
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Nov 13, 2016 19:38
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Turnout update...up to 129.1 million votes, 140k behind 2012. By end of day we should surpass 2012's toral votes cast. Current margin is Clinton up by ~725k votes, with 47.55% to Trump's 46.98%.
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Nov 14, 2016 19:11
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I think 133-134m is the most likely final range fwiw.
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Nov 14, 2016 19:31
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Patter Song posted:Turnout update...up to 129.1 million votes, 140k behind 2012. By end of day we should surpass 2012's total votes cast. And...129.4 million votes. We've surpassed 2012...only 2 million to go before we hit 2008. Clinton 47.56 to Trump 46.96, for anyone counting. Clinton is up to 61.5 million votes and should easily surpass Bush 2004's 62 million soon. Patter Song has issued a correction as of 23:25 on Nov 15, 2016 |
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Nov 15, 2016 02:33
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man, it could be tight. I regret maxing 4 too early. Made some money on 5 though. Just not as much as I'm going to lose if it goes to 3!
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Nov 15, 2016 04:30
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3000 > 100. I am slowly clawing my way back by picking the safe bets and just selling off before close. Christ this will take a while to snowball
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Nov 15, 2016 23:06
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130.2 million votes. Clinton is at 61.99 million votes, some 50k away from Bush 04. Trump is at 61.02, passing Romney 12. Clinton 47.62% Trump 46.87% Other 5.51% Patter Song has issued a correction as of 05:18 on Nov 16, 2016 |
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Nov 15, 2016 23:27
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George H.W. oval office posted:3000 > 100. I am slowly clawing my way back by picking the safe bets and just selling off before close. Christ this will take a while to snowball What is even safe anymore...
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Nov 16, 2016 00:07
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Patter Song posted:130.2 million votes. Clinton is at 61.99 million votes, some 50k away from Bush 04. Trump is at 61.02, passing Romney 12. CA just pushed out a big vote dump. Up to 130.9 million votes. Clinton at 62,413,443, Trump at 61,251,881. Clinton is now officially third-highest vote-getter ever, Trump officially fifth-highest vote-getter ever. Current results: Clinton 47.68% Trump 46.79% Other 5.53%
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Nov 16, 2016 05:18
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Dogwood Fleet posted:What is even safe anymore... Speaking of safe, why is this not priced at NO 99? Are the trumpeters so cocky that they think there is a trove of uncounted white southerners who will swing the popular vote back to them?
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Nov 16, 2016 16:45
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Zeta Taskforce posted:Speaking of safe, why is this not priced at NO 99? Are the trumpeters so cocky that they think there is a trove of uncounted white southerners who will swing the popular vote back to them? It basically worked before, so yeah probably.
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Nov 16, 2016 17:04
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Zeta Taskforce posted:Speaking of safe, why is this not priced at NO 99? Are the trumpeters so cocky that they think there is a trove of uncounted white southerners who will swing the popular vote back to them? Trump fans have been repeating the (false) idea that absentees are only counted in close races. Therefore, they think that there are millions of uncounted Trump absentees (there aren't).
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Nov 16, 2016 20:12
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When should I pull out?
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Nov 16, 2016 23:18
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It's unlikely that turnout hits 135 million, but unlikely is not impossible. I'm expecting votes to end up around 134 million.
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Nov 16, 2016 23:30
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Good buys Joe. I read that the big CA counties only update their "uncounted" numbers on Tuesday and Friday late afternoon and it seems to be true (so far!). So I feel like B3 is going to inch up a bit more (and B4 probably fall) as the "total votes counted" keeps going up on various sites, but the sos report here of uncounted ( http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2016-general/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf ) doesn't move much until late friday. Especially if (uselectionatlas total + sos ca uncounted total) goes higher than 135 (its at 134.6x now). I'm not personally feeling like taking on much more of a risk in this market, or selling at a loss now to re-allocate and maybe get caught holding the wrong side when I still think B4.YES will win.
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Nov 17, 2016 01:03
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Baddog posted:Good buys Joe. Thanks. Yeah I'm with ya on thinking B4 will win so I'm basically trying to figure out the sweet spot to pull everything out. Looking like tomorrow evening would be best then. Got up to +$112 earlier this afternoon.
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Nov 17, 2016 01:26
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Dogwood Fleet posted:What is even safe anymore... Janet Yellen said earlier today that she would not step down until her term is up, so this seems like a good place to park some money if you're looking for a long-term gain.
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Nov 17, 2016 22:18
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Patter Song posted:CA just pushed out a big vote dump. Up to 130.9 million votes. Clinton at 62,413,443, Trump at 61,251,881. Clinton is now officially third-highest vote-getter ever, Trump officially fifth-highest vote-getter ever. Up to 132.9 million votes. Clinton 63,551,937, Trump 61,898,577. Trump is about to overtake Bush 04 for most votes of a Republican candidate. The total number of votes will almost definitely end up narrowly over 135 million. Clinton 47.82% Trump 46.58% Other 5.60%
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Nov 19, 2016 20:14
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Patter Song posted:Up to 132.9 million votes. Clinton 63,551,937, Trump 61,898,577. Trump is about to overtake Bush 04 for most votes of a Republican candidate.
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Nov 19, 2016 22:03
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Also, turnout is now at 58.3%, and likely to raise to around 59.0% by the time counting ends. 2012 was 58.6% turnout, so even as a percentage turnout will be up from 2012 (still nowhere close to 2008 as a percentage). Is 59% turnout low? Depends on what you compare it to. 1996 had 51.7% turnout, and that was the lowest turnout since 1924 so it's the floor. 2008 had 62.2% turnout, highest since 1968. Turnout in the last 50 years has been a relatively narrow band with 52% as the minimum and 62% as the maximum.
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Nov 19, 2016 22:25
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Hmm clarify something for me... predictit says total *presidential* vote. Electproject does have the total ballots estimate over 135M now, but looking back at prior presidential election years, the presidential (highest office) final tally is always more than 1m less. I think people on predictit are perhaps just going off the top line number to flip this market? Am I missing something? Why are you positive this is going to end up more than 135 now? http://www.electproject.org/2016g http://www.electproject.org/2012g http://www.electproject.org/2008g http://www.electproject.org/2004g
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Nov 19, 2016 23:32
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The biggest, but not only, chunk of uncounted voters left is in CA. http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2016-general/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf 1.48 million mail ballots + 1.24 million provisional ballots. Let's say that 2/3rds of the provisional ballots are accepted (a usual number): we're up to about 2.3 million more votes from CA alone. We're 2.1 million away from 135 million. Add to that another ~300k in OH, another ~200k in WA, another ~200k in IL, and some odds and ends in other states...and even with some people not voting for President, we should end up with between 135 and 136 million votes.
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Nov 20, 2016 01:26
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Patter Song posted:The biggest, but not only, chunk of uncounted voters left is in CA. mmm the counties provide vote updates more frequently than uncounted status updates (kinda weird, you'd think it would be the same status update). Compare the dates on this page http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/status/ to the unprocessed page http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2016-general/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf See the monster, LA county, updated vote count last night, but the last time they updated unprocessed was Tuesday. Supposedly. I haven't been tracking closely enough to see if the LA numbers have moved over the past 4 days and they just missed updating the date. edit: its definitely gonna be close, I'm sweating it! I just don't see enough info to firesale my B4 position given that everything I'm seeing is still pointing to B4. Baddog has issued a correction as of 02:16 on Nov 20, 2016 |
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Nov 20, 2016 02:08
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Patter Song posted:1.48 million mail ballots + 1.24 million provisional ballots. Let's say that 2/3rds of the provisional ballots are accepted (a usual number): we're up to about 2.3 million more votes from CA alone. We're 2.1 million away from 135 million. Do you have a cite for so many of the provisional ballots being counted? I thought it was more like 10%.
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Nov 20, 2016 06:27
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Some states are stricter than others. CA will count the most common type of provisional ballot: people voting in the wrong place. Other states throw those out.
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Nov 20, 2016 19:15
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Patter Song posted:Up to 132.9 million votes. Clinton 63,551,937, Trump 61,898,577. Trump is about to overtake Bush 04 for most votes of a Republican candidate. Up to 134.4 million votes cast. Just the last few trickling in now: Elect Project, who has been pretty good, thinks that it'll end up being ~135.2 million cast. Per uselectionatlas.org, which is a fantastic resource that has been doing this since the late 1990s, Trump is at 62,327,523 votes to Clinton's 64,424,986 million. Clinton will definitely not touch Obama 2012's 65.9 million votes, but she'll come very close. Clinton 47.94% Trump 46.38% Other 5.68%
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Nov 24, 2016 20:56
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Hey there's room to buy into the Clinton US President market again. Oh and there's going to be a recount (or filing) happening soon. The market is already reacting. Probably should get in early if you're getting in at all (for the love of god don't hold onto them though): https://www.predictit.org/Contract/444/Will-Hillary-Clinton-win-the-2016-US-presidential-election EDIT: http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/26/politics/clinton-campaign-recount/ EDIT X2: Whoever PredictIt put in charge of moderating that page is continually deleting new comments from everyone... EDIT X3: Put in a sell order before I went into the shower. Came back to $250 profit. Jill Stein just made me $250. The Joe Man has issued a correction as of 06:03 on Nov 27, 2016 |
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Nov 27, 2016 02:25
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I know it's not happening but I swear to god if she ends up flipping this election I'll poo poo a brick.
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Nov 27, 2016 05:08
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 We're up to 135,034,226 votes cast. Not many votes left...we passed 135 million but we probably won't pass 136 million.
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Nov 29, 2016 04:31
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Patter Song posted:
Really regret selling my 135-140m shares for a quick gain at 20c now, lmao.
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Nov 29, 2016 04:35
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Patter Song posted:
per?
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Nov 29, 2016 06:04
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Abel Wingnut posted:per? uselectionatlas.org, which is a fantastic resource for this sort of thing.
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Nov 29, 2016 06:26
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Patter Song posted:uselectionatlas.org, which is a fantastic resource for this sort of thing. yah its looking pretty grim. I didn't think so many of the provisionals would be counted in CA. uselectionatlas.org numbers do seem to revise downward occasionally, as the states sometimes dont count all the county votes (write ins or 3rd parties?). This guy just uses the state level numbers, https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68EZx4SfCnP4IGQf8/htmlview?sle=true#gid=19 But its getting close there as well.
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Nov 29, 2016 06:42
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You guys know the election is over and Trump won, right?
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Nov 29, 2016 16:14
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Great post, Covok. Thanks for stopping by.
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Nov 29, 2016 16:34
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Covok posted:You guys know the election is over and Trump won, right? OH poo poo SELL SELL SELL
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Nov 29, 2016 18:16
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