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Realtalk: Chuck, you have the patience of a loving saint.
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Dec 6, 2016 07:02
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Peel posted:Yeah a census should collect data on racial distribution, otherwise you can't investigate and address racism effectively. That's normal in censuses. It just so happens to be completely ineffective to do that in a country that, as was previously understood, is overwhelmingly of mixed race, as it just so happens to be, it's always been that way. Racial controversy in Venezuela is manufactured by American tankies and amplified by Chavez, because he really needed to label the opposition as the fat, white, rich bourgeoisie, because it's just ridiculous to think somebody could be rationally against a kleptocratic, nepotistic, inefficient, corrupt and cruel government. The reason why Borneo Jimmy drives that point forward though, is that he's too much of a pussy to flat out admit he supports a government that has caused many of those in this thread to be forcibly removed from their home country, that has cause immense hardship and pain to our families. He'll run away whenever any of his poo poo is called into scrutiny. fnox fucked around with this message at 13:56 on Dec 6, 2016 |
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Dec 6, 2016 13:54
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Why are you guys still acknowledging the bridge troll? Jimmy has absolutely no loving clue about Venezuela and only wants to push his own ideals and feel smug about "owning some right wing shills". Ignore the guy. On other news, my package arrived safely home, in what, under two weeks? I'm happy for that even if it was pretty expensive (210€ for 9kg). Apparently they are sending medicine for free, as well. I'm going to confirm that and get back to you venegoons.
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Dec 6, 2016 14:25
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It's the cycle of life. Jimmy goes away, Jimmy comes back and we all give him too much attention. While I understand that it sucks that someone new might come into the thread, read his craziness and think he's making a point, I also think no one sane would pay attention to his ramblings. I mean, the guy can barely put together a sentence without using the words bourgeoise, death-squad, and racial epithets. If someone reads that stuff and goes "Huh, this guy makes a lot of sense", they probably wouldn't have contributed anything worthwhile to the conversation either way. On other news, merchants are really beginning to adjust their prices rather quickly. It used to be normal for prices to straggle a bit behind sudden devaluations, but everyone seems to be on top of this one. Most prices online have doubled or more within the past couple of weeks and brick and mortar store's aren't too far behind. I know it's to be expected, but it's still jarring.
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Dec 6, 2016 14:55
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Labradoodle posted:On other news, merchants are really beginning to adjust their prices rather quickly. It used to be normal for prices to straggle a bit behind sudden devaluations, but everyone seems to be on top of this one. Most prices online have doubled or more within the past couple of weeks and brick and mortar store's aren't too far behind. I know it's to be expected, but it's still jarring. How does buying stuff online work? Do you have to still go for an in-store pickup, or is it only international mail that has a huge probability of being stolen by postal workers and customs officials?
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Dec 6, 2016 15:19
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Saladman posted:How does buying stuff online work? Do you have to still go for an in-store pickup, or is it only international mail that has a huge probability of being stolen by postal workers and customs officials? We mostly use MercadoLibre for in-country purchases, which I believe is owned by eBay. It's a regular online purchasing process, except that you have to arrange shipping on your own with the sellers since the national post is such a mess. Most of the time I just default to buying whatever I need from someone in Caracas so I can go pick it up myself and avoid the hassle of dealing with private shipping companies, which are also annoying as hell. International purchases aren't that complicated either, there are dozens of mail-forwarding companies based in Miami that will get your packages from Amazon and the likes here with minimal hassle. They usually have deals with customs, or so I assume because packages don't get 'lost' often. It's a painless process, on a couple of occasions I've received packages within the same week I ordered them from Amazon. Shipments from the rest of the world are more complicated, I assume, considering how much Hugoon had to pay for his (a few posts above this).
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Dec 6, 2016 15:36
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Labradoodle posted:We mostly use MercadoLibre for in-country purchases, which I believe is owned by eBay. It's a regular online purchasing process, except that you have to arrange shipping on your own with the sellers since the national post is such a mess. Most of the time I just default to buying whatever I need from someone in Caracas so I can go pick it up myself and avoid the hassle of dealing with private shipping companies, which are also annoying as hell. Huh, that's a lot better than I would have guessed. That's better than, say, Panama's mail system which doesn't even have the excuse of a society in the midst of collapse. Does mail come to your home, or do you have to pick it up at some office somewhere? (If the former, man I'd be scared shitless to be a delivery man.)
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Dec 6, 2016 15:40
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I'm scared that if his comments don't go unchallenged, lurkers will get the impression that there might be some truth to them. I don't mind being the designated "Borneo Jimmier" or whatever you call a person who responds to another person. The big news of the today so far is that the MUD will not be attending the talks with the PSUV that were scheduled for today. The head of the MUD (Jesus Torrealba) said that the reason for the no-show is that the government has not shown any inclination whatsoever to sticking to the agreements the two sides came to last month. Torrealba also said that the MUD was still committed to a dialogue process, but that from now on it would go back to talking to the PSUV through mediators like the Vatican and a handful of former presidents who have become involved in the process. Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 16:26 on Dec 6, 2016 |
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Dec 6, 2016 15:47
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Chuck Boone posted:I'm scared that if his comments don't go unchallenged, lurkers will get the impression that there might be some truth to them. I don't mind being the designated "Borneo Jimmier" or whatever you call a person who responds to another person. Surprising exactly loving no one. I'd love to know what the plan is right now for the MUD, assuming they aren't just on PSUV's pocket. Stall things until somehow a new election can be called, then run for it? Meanwhile they present a token opposition that crumbles as soon as the government asks them to?
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Dec 7, 2016 08:27
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M. Discordia posted:Current scoreboard: Did you just link a blog post from a user as an example? And one of these is a year old. Saladman posted:While what you have today and in the last couple years is not socialism, the strong majority of Chavez's period in power was certainly socialism. Trying to call chavismo not a socialist policy (in theory and in action) is historical revisionism. Just because there was a lot of corruption doesn't make it "not really socialism" unless you're whatever the tankie equivalent of chavismo is. I agree, but to be fair, I think what he was trying to say was "the PSUV didn't try to build a country with an effective socialist system, but rather a country with whatever system helps them steal as much as possible." Chuck Boone posted:I am far from wealthy. My family is not wealthy, either. I'm telling you this not because I feel the need to defend myself, but only to demonstrate to you that you're coming into this conversation (and into the topic of Venezuela in general) with a mind full of assumptions that are simply not grounded in reality. I am enjoying the benefits of a robust welfare state (although I wouldn't call Canada "a robust welfare state" - still, I take your point), and I want nothing more than to extend those same benefits - and other, better ones - to the people of Venezuela. But you're deluding yourself if the PSUV is going to do that. Is the PSUV still all up with austerity? punk rebel ecks fucked around with this message at 09:12 on Dec 7, 2016 |
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Dec 7, 2016 08:47
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Here's an example of a Jacobin magazine article fairly critical of PSUVquote:Venezuela’s December elections placed the Chavista reforms of the last sixteen years in peril. The Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) took 112 of the Assembly’s 167 seats, mirroring other right-wing resurgences in Argentina and Brazil. You know, it is actually possible to include both criticism and support for a thing in the same publication.
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Dec 7, 2016 09:31
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What do you guys think 2017 is gonna be like in Venezuela?
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Dec 7, 2016 12:30
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Friendly Humour posted:Here's an example of a Jacobin magazine article fairly critical of PSUV Jacobin is actually very good. Unfortunately they do have very embarrassing articles by some contributors. Venezuela is by far the biggest offender. But over the past year or so they have taken a 180.
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Dec 7, 2016 16:34
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Here's what the new bolivares are going to look like. Here's what bolivares used to look like  They changed the denominations and the colors, yet kept the exact same designs. Perhaps the scariest thing to consider is how these bills are 250 times larger than the previous ones, that's the extent of the bolivar's devaluation. Also to note is how the highest denomination bill is still merely 5 bucks.
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Dec 7, 2016 16:55
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I'm the pissed-off dude on the 10/2000 notes.
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Dec 7, 2016 16:57
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Hugoon Chavez posted:Surprising exactly loving no one. punk rebel ecks posted:Is the PSUV still all up with austerity? The people who have had the Kool-Aid will tell you all sorts of wonderful things about how expansive the public healthcare system is in the country, but the reality is that it - along with virtually every other social welfare program in the country - exists only on paper now. The devastation that the PSUV has wrought is difficult to put into words. fnox posted:What do you guys think 2017 is gonna be like in Venezuela? punk rebel ecks posted:Jacobin is actually very good. Unfortunately they do have very embarrassing articles by some contributors. Venezuela is by far the biggest offender. But over the past year or so they have taken a 180. fnox posted:They changed the denominations and the colors, yet kept the exact same designs. Perhaps the scariest thing to consider is how these bills are 250 times larger than the previous ones, that's the extent of the bolivar's devaluation. Also to note is how the highest denomination bill is still merely 5 bucks. I guess it's an attempt to minimize the novelty of having a whole net set of bills roll out? The government was loathe to get these new bills out because it was seen as a tacit admission that the inflation rate was killing the currency.
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Dec 7, 2016 17:05
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Chuck Boone posted:I guess it's an attempt to minimize the novelty of having a whole net set of bills roll out? The government was loathe to get these new bills out because it was seen as a tacit admission that the inflation rate was killing the currency.
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Dec 7, 2016 17:19
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fnox posted:What do you guys think 2017 is gonna be like in Venezuela? Everything doubled in price the last few weeks, banks have no money and points of sale systems don't work. Can't see things getting better with over 2000% inflation next year and the PSUV refusing to implement any measures to fix this poo poo.
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Dec 7, 2016 17:28
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Chuck Boone posted:Worse: the PSUV has destroyed the Venezuelan economy. What's more austere than bankrupting a nation? If you name me a PSUV social welfare program you'll be naming a program that has failed due to corruption and mismanagement. Just today, the Venezuelan Medical Association said that the public healthcare system is "bankrupt", and that patients have to bring their own medical supplies to public healthcare centres because medical supplies/medicine are experiencing scarcity rates of 97%. Chuck Boone posted:The thing that irks me about Jacobin is that the stuff that I've looked at reads like French Revolution fan fiction. I just can't read past the flowery, loaded language I've seen in their articles. Admittedly, all of the stuff I've read from them is on Venezuela, which you say might not be particularly good, so maybe that's it. There previous coverage on Venezuela is terrible. But they seem to have turned a new leaf with the country and their excerpts elsewhere are really good. Especially the United States.
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Dec 7, 2016 20:24
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punk rebel ecks posted:a nation can't go bankrupt due to public debt. The PSUV could just enact a huge stimulus to jump start the Venezuelan economy If the debt is denominated in Bolivars, sure they can just wait for inflation to diminish it to nothing, or just get more bolivars from the central bank. If the debt is denominated in foreign currency, they can absolutely come in a situation where they cannot pay and will enter default. If all the resources and goods that were needed could be sourced within Venezuela, sure stimulus might help. Unfortunately in most cases you would need foreign resources, machinery and goods, and for that you need foreign currency. catfry fucked around with this message at 00:20 on Dec 8, 2016 |
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Dec 7, 2016 21:23
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fnox posted:What do you guys think 2017 is gonna be like in Venezuela? Come get the new 10 million bolivar note. Yours for only $50 dollars US, or 15 cents US on the black market.
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Dec 7, 2016 22:00
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Homeroom Fingering posted:Come get the new 10 million bolivar note. Yours for only $50 dollars US, or 15 cents US on the black market. The new 20000 note is effectively a 20 million Bolivares note, remember Chavez came up with the whole Bolivar Fuerte idea back in 2008 and took three zeros from the old bills.
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Dec 7, 2016 23:16
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punk rebel ecks posted:Going bankrupt is basically austerity. Especially since a nation can't go bankrupt due to public debt. The PSUV could just enact a huge stimulus to jump start the Venezuelan economy A lot of people like you seem to forget that the us is rather unique in it's ability to use stimulus to pump the economy because even in the worst of times it can borrow money for next to nothing or even negative interest rates. A nation that does not have their debt in their own currency (most countries besides the richest) can absolutely default, so I'm not sure what you are talking about there. It seems most people who rant about austerity really have no clue whatsoever what they are talking about. For many countries the alternative to austerity is becoming the next Weimar republic because there's simply no money, or a functioning economy for that matter. You don't become prosperous simply by wishing on a loving star, and stimulus really doesn't work how you think it does- it's a tool that works well for specific situations, and doesn't do jack poo poo when the countries' in the situation that Venezuela is in (because the problem is much more fundamental than a temporary demand shock).
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Dec 7, 2016 23:50
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Venezuela is almost surely going to default next year. Half the country is basically mortgaged at this point and there's not enough money coming in by any metric. The only reason we haven't done so yet is because the PSUV doesn't care much about giving away half the country to the Chinese and Russian. Our international reserves have been close to depleting for years now and all that's kept us out of the doghouse is the government's willingness to give major mining and drilling rights away. By the time it's all said and done, Chavismo will have given away more of the country than any government previously has. So much noise and they've bent over further than any other government has when it comes to privatization. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 00:47 on Dec 8, 2016 |
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Dec 8, 2016 00:44
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punk rebel ecks posted:Going bankrupt is basically austerity. Especially since a nation can't go bankrupt due to public debt. The PSUV could just enact a huge stimulus to jump start the Venezuelan economy, unfortunately there still is the problem with mass mismanagement. Stimulus only works if you have a lot of foreign reserve currency, have good public debt credit rating, or have an economy that can produce everything you need. You can either use foreign currency to buy the stuff you need(raw materials, food and medicine) from other countries or have your economy produce everything you need. Its like the scene from Dumb and Dumber where they wind up with a suitcase full of IOU's after they spent all the real money. They have no credible way to pay that money back or have the means to produce what they spent. Venezuela is technically at the end of a long 15 year stimulus where their credit and currency reserves are shot and the local economy has been priced out of existence through price controls and subsidies provided by high oil prices.
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Dec 8, 2016 01:03
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Chuck Boone posted:It's really hard to see Maduro lasting to the end of 2017. I think that there will be pressure for him to resign so that someone else can take the helm and try to salvage the PSUV's popularity before the next presidential elections. Elections?
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Dec 8, 2016 02:50
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The only way there'd be elections in this country is if oil shoots up back to over $100 per barrel and then Maduro himself comes up with the cure for cancer.
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Dec 8, 2016 03:27
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catfry posted:If the debt is denominated in Bolivars, sure they can just wait for inflation to diminish it to nothing, or just get more bolivars from the central bank. If the debt is denominated in foreign currency, they can absolutely come in a situation where they cannot pay and will enter default. Yes, that's what I meant by private debt. As in not held in Venezuelan currency and/or produced by the Venezuelan government. owDAWG posted:Stimulus only works if you have a lot of foreign reserve currency, have good public debt credit rating, or have an economy that can produce everything you need. EDIT - Just looked it up and it is as I suspected, Venezuela's debt is primarily foreign. punk rebel ecks fucked around with this message at 03:48 on Dec 8, 2016 |
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Dec 8, 2016 03:29
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The guy who runs https://zimbabwedollars.net/ is a goon, maybe you folks can see if he wants to get in early on another possibly soon to be wallpaper currency  ? Some of the bills he has up for sale go for US$70 each & he's been doing this since 2011.
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Dec 8, 2016 06:14
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MREBoy posted:The guy who runs https://zimbabwedollars.net/ is a goon, maybe you folks can see if he wants to get in early on another possibly soon to be wallpaper currency Jesus, those prices are ridiculous. You can get the same stuff, at least for Zimbabwe dollars, for < 20% the price on eBay. Also it looks like he'll be waiting until the BsF gets into the range of hundreds of millions (so mid-2018 if they don't lop off zeroes again?).
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Dec 8, 2016 11:00
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punk rebel ecks posted:Yes, that's what I meant by private debt. As in not held in Venezuelan currency and/or produced by the Venezuelan government. Private and public debt refers to the debtor. The entity that owes money. It does not indicate who the money is owed to. Private debt refers to all debt owed by non-government entities. Both can be owed in any currency, or even in raw materials. I think Venezuela has entered agreements with China for certain amounts of oil, as an example. catfry fucked around with this message at 11:19 on Dec 8, 2016 |
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Dec 8, 2016 11:15
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Venezuela: The Somalia of South America
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Dec 8, 2016 22:40
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Sucre really is the Somalia of South America, the entire state is run by criminal gangs and it's a huge shame because it's a beautiful state. Well tbh the entire country is being run by a criminal gang...
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Dec 8, 2016 22:45
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yes, one of the most beautiful countries in the world is a hellhole now, unlike Somalia which isn't that pretty
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Dec 9, 2016 05:29
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Puntland and Somaliland have functioning governments though, so parts of Somalia have current Venezuela beat
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Dec 9, 2016 06:02
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tsa posted:A lot of people like you seem to forget that the us is rather unique in it's ability to use stimulus to pump the economy because even in the worst of times it can borrow money for next to nothing or even negative interest rates. On a tangential note, hyperinflation in Weimar republic was intentional government policy, not an accident. It was used to dick the French over war reparation payments (as well as government creditors), nothing to do with economic hardship or the great depression. And you know how it was solved? The government printed new money. And then inflation stopped, because Germany was exporting again. They defaulted on their foreign debts through inflation, and then everything was fine. Well, relatively speaking  You can absolutely solve hyperinflation by printing a new currency, so long as your balance of payments (exports over imports) remains positive. That's the real issue for Venezuelan economy imho, your base economic structure is hosed. The inflation is a problem, but it's only a compounding issue.
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Dec 9, 2016 07:58
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Celexi posted:yes, one of the most beautiful countries in the world is a hellhole now, unlike Somalia which isn't that pretty I didn't mean that as a dig against Somalia, sand dunes can be pretty too.
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Dec 9, 2016 11:53
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Friendly Humour posted:And you know how it was solved? The government printed new money. And then inflation stopped, because Germany was exporting again. They defaulted on their foreign debts through inflation, and then everything was fine. Well, relatively speaking Inflation is a general behaviour of a economy and many processes can be the cause. To control inflation it is necessary to solve all the causes. One of the problems with inflation is that it can become cronic and self-reinforcing. If the majority of buyers believe that the currency will lose value fast they adjust their behaviour accordingly and try, on one hand to exchange it for tangibles, and on the other push harder to increase their own income. the shopkeeper need to adjust prices upwards in order to be able to afford wholesale goods. the producer know they need to increase prices to be able to pay the inevitable demands for increased wages that come because shop prices are known to increase month on month, and the cycle simply continues. Changing the currency name and face value is mostly just window-dressing, but it can be useful from a psycological standpoint because it communicates to the general public that the country is turning a new leaf, and hopefully stopping the cycle. As part of policies that attack inflation it can help, but only if all underlying sources of inflation are being attacked as well. In Venezuela the core source of inflation is a severe shortage, coupled with an increased money supply. More currency is chasing less goods, because the state is trying to limit imports at the same time as local production is mistrusted. People got lots of money, relatively speaking, but little to spend it on. This quite classically leads to inflation, and will not go away unless the money supply is restricted.
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Dec 9, 2016 14:40
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El Hefe posted:I didn't mean that as a dig against Somalia, sand dunes can be pretty too. Me neither, i just meant that it can happen in any country if the wrong people get in power regardless of the country beauty
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Dec 10, 2016 01:44
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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-38274267quote:Venezuelan authorities have arrested two toy company executives and seized almost four million toys, which they say they will distribute to the poor. What the hell... How does the government think this is going to work out is honestly beyond me. You can't fight inflation by forcing companies to make losses. Is this just spite, or is someone actually advising Maduro that this is an economically feasible thing to do? catfry posted:
"Restricting the money supply" is just a monetarist myth, it doesn't ever work in practice. The causes of runaway inflation are many, and it doesn't have a solution that targets some specific thing like the money supply or whatever. Restricting central bank loans through interest rate hikes just creates yet another shock to an already damaged economy, and creates yet more inflation as investors flee the country and sell their national currency denominated assets, as we all saw in Britain during the Thatcher era. It has absolutely zero positive effects, and it solves absolutely nothing. Although it does make it easier for locust hedge funds to purchase and liquidate what little physical assets still remain, so it is a rather attractive policy for those who stand to benefit among the global super rich who can play that game. Wanna fix the economy? Stop looking for panacea and focus on things that will encourage foreign investments over decadal timescales. That of course would require a stable political situation, not being headed by an insane populist locked in a death struggle with half of society. Venezuela will start recovering precicely when you end your political civil war. Whether that happens through military coup and the following massacres, or some kind of political settlement that includes the people who keep voting for PSUV is still an open question.
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Dec 10, 2016 15:34
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