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Dusty Baker 2
Jul 8, 2011

Keyboard Inghimasi
They also got a Netflix movie.

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Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Jazerus posted:

so why are folks suddenly talking endlessly about these white helmet dudes?

i've been following this conflict since assad was shooting folks at protests and i'd never heard of them before like a month or two ago

It's a humanitarian organization who got a bit of positive international media attention and some foreign aid. As a result of having this positive image and providing aid to the local to-be-liquidated population they, along with the less crazy rebels (and the hospitals), have been singled out for special attention/bombing along with a media blitz to portray them all as horrible terrorist collaborators.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002


It's also worth noting about this attack that the Russian MoD also used wrongly dated aerial imagery to claim the location hadn't been attacked, not realising you could see structures destroyed in the video still standing in the aerial imagery they said was from after the attack:
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2015/11/04/fact-checking-russias-claim-that-it-didnt-bomb-a-hospital-in-syria/

Atrocious Joe
Sep 2, 2011

Jazerus posted:

so why are folks suddenly talking endlessly about these white helmet dudes?

i've been following this conflict since assad was shooting folks at protests and i'd never heard of them before like a month or two ago

They are also called Civil Defense groups, although since the movie I haven't heard that much in English.

Throatwarbler
Nov 17, 2008

by vyelkin
Looks like Palmyra is going to be recaptured by IS. Maybe Assad and Putin will have to divert forces and allow the hospitals of Aleppo to live to fight another day?

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

I was wondering when the first hot take about the newest advance by the Islamic State being a good thing would show up.

Generation Internet
Jan 18, 2009

Where angels and generals fear to tread.
Didn't Russia fly an orchestra or w/e out there when they took it as a big publicity stunt

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Sinteres posted:

I was wondering when the first hot take about the newest advance by the Islamic State being a good thing would show up.

Assad doing more than paying lip service to fighting ISIS would be a good thing.

Edit: It'd probably even avoid his skeletonized defensive lines with ISIS from being periodically overrun.

Warbadger fucked around with this message at 19:35 on Dec 10, 2016

Redmark
Dec 11, 2012

This one's for you, Morph.
-Evo 2013
It's not like they don't care about Palmyra, given how much they spent to take it back and hold DEZ. This is just how the regime forces work, the capable units get moved around to fight every fire and every other front is weak. The Hama offensive didn't happen because Assad was paying lip service about fighting Jund-al-Aqsa, they just lost.

Though I don't understand why, assuming this was an opportunistic attack, IS didn't do this before the Aleppo rebels collapsed.

Redmark fucked around with this message at 20:12 on Dec 10, 2016

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

Redmark posted:

Though I don't understand why, assuming this was an opportunistic attack, IS didn't do this before the Aleppo rebels collapsed.

At least some of these ISIS fighters supposedly came from Iraq, so maybe the Russian and Shia militia anger at the idea of letting them escape Mosul wasn't entirely misplaced, even if the continued poo poo show that is Mosul demonstrates that forcing those remaining to stay has costs as well.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

taksim blowin' up, gunfire for at least an hour

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/807669872343810048

(pics in tweet)

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Larger blast reported outside of the Vodafone Arena as well

edit: there where intitial reports of an explosion at Macka park followed by a larger explosion outside the Vodafone Arena where Besiktas play.

https://twitter.com/forever1903bjk1/status/807676192643944448

kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 21:10 on Dec 10, 2016

fspades
Jun 3, 2013

by R. Guyovich

kustomkarkommando posted:

Larger blast reported outside of the Vodafone Arena as well

It was an attack on the riot cops exiting the Vodafone Arena after a football match. 20 injured confirmed so far.

The explosions were heard across the whole city. That's HUGE.

Throatwarbler
Nov 17, 2008

by vyelkin
The Russians need to show Assad some of their PowerPoints on blocking detachments

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Redmark posted:

It's not like they don't care about Palmyra, given how much they spent to take it back and hold DEZ. This is just how the regime forces work, the capable units get moved around to fight every fire and every other front is weak. The Hama offensive didn't happen because Assad was paying lip service about fighting Jund-al-Aqsa, they just lost.

Though I don't understand why, assuming this was an opportunistic attack, IS didn't do this before the Aleppo rebels collapsed.

Point being if Assad had been conducting offensive operations on the ISIS fronts (as everyone else has been) some of those units would had been around and ISIS would be busy clinging to their territory rather than building up opportunistic attacks on the weakest link.

Redmark
Dec 11, 2012

This one's for you, Morph.
-Evo 2013
I'm not any kind of military expert, but I don't see any great options for the SAA against IS currently. They can go for al-Bab, but that would be a struggle against the rebels also. Or they can try to relieve Deir ez-zor, which... seems difficult. Last time they tried a desert offensive they got flanked and lost a lot of men.

edit: looks like a heavy Russian intervention has cleared IS from Palmyra city for now, but judging by past events IS is going to come back in a few hours and kill everyone

Redmark fucked around with this message at 21:37 on Dec 10, 2016

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

Nenonen posted:

'suicide drone', or in plain speak guided missile, unless the operator shoots himself in the head after he's done

I didn't realize the US had been suicide bombing Pakistan all along.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

https://twitter.com/TurkeyUntold/status/807687599091568640
https://twitter.com/TurkeyUntold/status/807688810750496768

Throatwarbler
Nov 17, 2008

by vyelkin
https://twitter.com/Syria_Rebel_Obs/status/807650689988132865

Looks like half of Ahrar have just split off to join Nusra.

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

Warbadger posted:

It's a humanitarian organization who got a bit of positive international media attention and some foreign aid. As a result of having this positive image and providing aid to the local to-be-liquidated population they, along with the less crazy rebels (and the hospitals), have been singled out for special attention/bombing along with a media blitz to portray them all as horrible terrorist collaborators.

Well they're singled out because they're partisan. Unlike say the Red Cross or Medicines sans Frontiers, who don't take sides, the White Helmets most certainly do take sides. They're funded by the US government, and campaign for Western military intervention. So, yeah they get criticized, of course they do, but its not because they save lives.

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Count Roland posted:

Well they're singled out because they're partisan. Unlike say the Red Cross or Medicines sans Frontiers, who don't take sides, the White Helmets most certainly do take sides. They're funded by the US government, and campaign for Western military intervention. So, yeah they get criticized, of course they do, but its not because they save lives.

They receive their funding from a large number of governments and individual donors, USAID being the largest out of the government donors with the UK sitting in second and Germany contributing a pretty fair chunk. That is not "funded by the US government". Where exactly do you think the Red Cross and MSF get funding if not various governments and individual donors?

The "campaign for Western military intervention" part is also debatable and mostly a position pushed by Assad, Russia, and outlets like the Ron Paul Institute. Given the nature of the Russian and SAA campaigns in Syria which necessitate the organization existing (see: targeting of civilian infrastructure, hospitals, marketplaces, along with large scale bombing of urban areas) I don't find it surprising they (or the other Syrians subjected to it) would advocate for intervention. But you know, I'm sure Russia (a foreign government militarily intervening in Syria) and Assad (whose faction is a recipient of massive, direct foreign military aid to drive its war effort) truly believe foreign intervention in Syria is unconscionable and have a solid position from which to level criticism (and a shitload of bombs) against any group wanting it.

Edit: Even then most of the claims about them being partisan boil down to "A BLOO BLOO BLOO THEY'RE TRYING TO MAKE ASSAD/RUSSIA LOOK BAD BY TALKING ABOUT DIGGING PEOPLE OUT OF THE BOMBED OUT RUINS OF THE CITIES ASSAD/RUSSIA ARE BOMBING".

Warbadger fucked around with this message at 23:22 on Dec 10, 2016

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
Very few in Syrian civil society in general actively pursue western intervention anymore. Mouaz Mustafa is the head of the Syrian Emergency Task Force, which is a smuggling ring that tries to get aid into places like Aleppo at great personal risk, and I think he put it best. He was at the house of commons having a discussion with an MP, and he explained that he wasn't advocating for a no fly zone. The MP pointed out that this was a departure from Mustafas previous position, and Mouaz said that he still wanted a no fly zone, but there was no reason to advocate for one anymore. It was never going to happen, so it was just a waste of time when they could be trying to secure more humanitarian aid and things like that which might at least alleviate the suffering a bit. After 5 years of this, nobody is clinging to the hope that the world will come save them anymore. The only people who showed up for the fight were the jihadists. The US isn't really on their radar.

Jippa
Feb 13, 2009
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/10/bomb-outside-istanbul-football-stadium-causes-multiple-casualties

The outlawed Kurdistan Workers party (PKK) may be behind the attack that killed 29 people and wounded 166 outside a football stadium in Istanbul, according to Turkey’s deputy prime minister, Numan Kurtulmuş. A car bomb was followed by a suicide bombing less than a minute later.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

The Turkish government isn't very reliable, but Kurdish groups tend to target police unlike ISIS.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Pro-gov Twitter is saying after Russian airstrikes pushed ISIS out of their positions in Palmyra an ISIS counterattack has resulted on most the city being captured.

pantslesswithwolves
Oct 28, 2008

A bomb went off in St. Mark's Cathedral, a Coptic church in Cairo, reportedly killing 10 people. This follows on another bombing in the Haram district of Giza that killed six cops a few days ago.

Ikasuhito
Sep 29, 2013

Haram as Fuck.

IS now claiming to have taken all of Palmyra.

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

suboptimal posted:

A bomb went off in St. Mark's Cathedral, a Coptic church in Cairo, reportedly killing 10 people. This follows on another bombing in the Haram district of Giza that killed six cops a few days ago.

Heh... haram district.

Is the government still bulldozing churches or did that end with Morsi?

Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!

Friendly Humour posted:

Heh... haram district.

Is the government still bulldozing churches or did that end with Morsi?

When did Morsi's government bulldoze churches? To answer your question, no the government doesn't bulldoze churches. The current administration is actually extremely chummy with the coptic church leadership (biggest church in Egypt by denomination), to the point that the church mobilizes coptic Egyptian protests backing Sisi whenever he visits a western nation. They are seen to completely support Sisi's policies and autocracy.

Also, the H in haram can be pronounced differently in Arabic (a guttural sound), so that Haram with an English H actually means "Pyramid", while the guttural Haram has the religious meaning.

Cat Mattress
Jul 14, 2012

by Cyrano4747
The UAE is getting to join the club of countries that crash on their neighbors' SOFA:
https://www.stratfor.com/sample/analysis/uae-joins-exclusive-club

The article is about how they're developing a base around the Eritrean port city of Assab. This position at the south of the Red Sea gives them a good point from which to conduct air operations against Yemen, which is in large part why they're here to begin with.

Saladin Rising
Nov 12, 2016

When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Jippa posted:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/10/bomb-outside-istanbul-football-stadium-causes-multiple-casualties

The outlawed Kurdistan Workers party (PKK) may be behind the attack that killed 29 people and wounded 166 outside a football stadium in Istanbul, according to Turkey’s deputy prime minister, Numan Kurtulmuş. A car bomb was followed by a suicide bombing less than a minute later.
Close, TAK claimed responsibility:
https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/807959614511726593?s=09

quote:

Kurdish militant group TAK takes responsibility for Beşiktaş bombing in Istanbul yesterday which left 38 dead mostly police + civilians
But I know Turkey doesn't differentiate between TAK and PKK.

Ikasuhito posted:

IS now claiming to have taken all of Palmyra.
https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/5hpj5b/palmyra_has_fallen_is_officially_stating_the/
Borrowing a quote from reddit, because it's just insult to injury at this point:

ProBot420 posted:

The embarrassing part is that this was literally the same tactic that IS used successfully the previous time. Overrun the countryside rapidly, launch a probing attack on the city, give some ground back, and then storm the entire city and it falls within a few hours. Literally the same strategy. I had a bad hunch that the real battle wasn't the first one in Tadmur, but the second one.
This wasn't even a new tactic or anything, ISIL literally used the exact same loving tactics as the last time they took Palmyra, and it worked again. I still don't get how the SAA and company could sweep across Aleppo so quickly and yet be completely blindsided in Palmyra.


Meanwhile, the SDF is renewing the Raqqa push. They have some help:
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/a75094b9b0ac42b5879bb510c32d0c3c/us-sending-200-more-troops-syria-battle

quote:

Drawing the U.S. deeper into the Syria conflict, Defense Secretary Ash Carter announced Saturday he is sending 200 more troops to accelerate the push on the Islamic State's self-declared capital of Raqqa.

The 200, to include special operations troops, are in addition to 300 already authorized for the effort to recruit, organize, train and advise local Syrian Arab and Kurdish forces to fight IS. Carter said the expanded U.S. involvement was approved by President Barack Obama last week.

On his final tour of the Mideast as Pentagon chief, Carter cast the new troop commitment as evidence that the U.S. backs its anti-IS words with military muscle. He offered an extensive defense of the Obama administration's efforts to defeat the extremists, and he aimed sharp jabs at the region's Arab powers, saying they need to stop complaining of U.S. shortcomings and do more to protect their own neighborhoods.
So that's ~500 total troops/advisers/SOF/etc. Huh, hard numbers are easier to come by that you'd expect.

Continuing on the Raqqa push, I found tweet chain that's a goldmine of good info:
https://twitter.com/agirecudi/status/807555953491144709

quote:

Syrian Democratic Forces (YPG/J+local Arab tribes+ former FSA groups) launch 2nd stage of #WrathOfEuphrates op to liberate Raqqa from ISIS.
SDF: "During 1st stage, we liberated 700 km2 from ISIS, broke ISIS defense lines N of Raqqa & w/ safe corridors rescued 1000s of civilians"
SDF "With the second stage of the #WrathOfEuphrates operation we will liberate all the villages falling west of Raqqa from ISIS"
SDF "Deir al Zor Military Council, Nakhba Forces, Liwa Thuwwar Raqqa & 500 youth from Raqqa trained by @coalition join us in this operation"
SDF "We are in actively coordinating the operation with the Global @coalition and will coordinate even stronger during 2nd stage of op"

SDF "Liberation of Raqqa city itself falls on the shoulder of its youth who joined us. After that, city will be governed w/ a civil council"
SDF "We call on people around Raqqa to follow our security warnings & act accordingly. We thank the people for cooperation during 1st stage"

I believe there will be a 3rd stage and that one will be for the city itself. 2nd stage is still to secure surrounding & "isolate" Raqqa.
What I also believe, based on no official/inside info that the aim will be to liberate whole area east of Euphrates before moving on city.
2 ISIS lifelines have been resource reach Euphrates and Tigris basins. They nearly lost Tigris in Iraq. Now aim is to kick 'em frm Euphrates
Once done, "effective" Islamic "State" governance will end. Less population under control & main area they have will be Syrian desert.
Oh hey, it's Liwa Thuwwar Raqqa! Looks like that special advisers training got them 500 new trained "youth" fighters. Now who's this "Deir al Zor Military Council"?

https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/5hljjr/syrian_democratic_forces_we_will_liberate_deir/
Syrian Democratic Forces: We will liberate Deir ez-Zor in the next phase of the Wrath of Euphrates campaign.

YPG-Got-Aleppo posted:

SDF's spokesman says that they received some modern weapons from the International Coalition. Including anti-tank weapons.

He also said that when this phase of the Wrath of Euphrates campaign is finished, the next move will be on Deir ez-Zor city.

About the current phase of the campaign he said: With this phase the liberation of Raqqa City is not our goal. The isolation of Raqqa and further liberation of its countryside is our goal.
Oh I get it, we're fully in the twilight zone: the zone where the SAA lost Palmyra again, and the siege of Deir ez-Zor will end up being relieved by the loving SDF, complete with coalition support in doing so.

Oddness aside, it's a fairly realistic scenario; the SDF just has to push down to As-Suwar, and from there it's a straight shot to Deir Ez-Zor city.

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 18:12 on Dec 11, 2016

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos
TAK: aka' woops our attack killed too many civilians this wasnt the pkk it was "tak"'

Bates
Jun 15, 2006

Brown Moses posted:

Pro-gov Twitter is saying after Russian airstrikes pushed ISIS out of their positions in Palmyra an ISIS counterattack has resulted on most the city being captured.

Looks like the SAA ran and left everything behind in Palmyra - a bunch of tanks captured, God knows what else.
https://twitter.com/RamiAILoIah/status/808030554822217729

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

Bates posted:

Looks like the SAA ran and left everything behind in Palmyra - a bunch of tanks captured, God knows what else.
https://twitter.com/RamiAILoIah/status/808030554822217729

How can they be so useless after all this time, jesus, its amazing.

I feel like the Iraqi army is basically the same here. That if really pressured they'll up and run all over again. If you assemble an armed force so ineptly, I fail to believe that a couple years later they'll have learned their lessons and turned everything around. If they were able to learn lessons these mistakes wouldn't have happened in the first place.

Ikasuhito
Sep 29, 2013

Haram as Fuck.

Saladin Rising posted:


https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/5hpj5b/palmyra_has_fallen_is_officially_stating_the/
Borrowing a quote from reddit, because it's just insult to injury at this point:

This wasn't even a new tactic or anything, ISIL literally used the exact same loving tactics as the last time they took Palmyra, and it worked again. I still don't get how the SAA and company could sweep across Aleppo so quickly and yet be completely blindsided in Palmyra.


Maybe you have a short memory?:shrug: What passes for the Syrian Army has shown itself to be capable when it's well supported and singularly focused like the pushes in and around Aleppo, but has equally been shown to be prone to falling flat on it's face when forced to have to stretch that attention to any real degree.

Plus this whole depacle was in the making the moment they decided to not capitalize on their success following Palmyra recapture earlier this year (another problem they they tend to have).

https://twitter.com/JACM212/status/808023645843050496

Ikasuhito fucked around with this message at 21:16 on Dec 11, 2016

Jazerus
May 24, 2011


oh boy now the mostly unexplored best preserved roman ruins on earth can be half-demolished again :hist101:

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos

Jazerus posted:

oh boy now the mostly unexplored best preserved roman ruins on earth can be half-demolished again :hist101:

I think they got most of the icons the first time, I think that the rest of the ruins will be ok unless they decide to mount an archeological dig.

I hope at least

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

The problem is away from the main fronts the Syrian army is reliant on the same local militias as the rebels for security. When recruited from Alawite and Christian populations local auxiliaries should be well motivated to defend their towns from Isis and the rebels, but that's not going to be the case in places like Palmyra and it's not surprising these guys folded immediately when put under any pressure.

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.
Oh a military force designed to massacre civilians with support of foreign areal bombardment sucks at fighting against other people with guns and training? word?

Either ways ISIS is on it's way out and is about to be destroyed, might as well kill a whole bunch of Bashars animals on their way into the ground. let the two fascist snakes eat each other.

Man, gently caress ISIS, seriously these groups of mass murdering criminals were a giant propaganda godsend to the dictatorships of the middle east and to racists around the world, thanks to what they did the Syrian Revolutionaries had the entire narrative and political reality of the conflict swept from underneath them and right into the hands of Bashar, Russia can now slap the label of ISIS onto children as they throw chlorine gas on them, and when the families escape Syria with their lives they are met with abuse from right wing racists at the places they're seeking safety in. What a giant waste of life this group of savages were.

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ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos
Russian losses

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/808024941497090049

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