|
It's fascinating how successfully the Israeli right-wing has managed to conflate opposition to its polices to opposition to Israel itself, and any opposition to Israeli policies for any reason, as anti-Semitism.
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 02:06
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 15, 2024 16:59 |
|
|
PT6A posted:It's fascinating how successfully the Israeli right-wing has managed to conflate opposition to its polices to opposition to Israel itself, and any opposition to Israeli policies for any reason, as anti-Semitism. They've had help in the US from a Republican Party that's more interested in using issues as weapons against Democrats than in governing. If/when the Democratic Party actually does turn against Israel, it'll be as much because Republicans used it as a wedge issue (obviously with help from Bibi) as because of the actual reality of the situation. Being 90% as pro-Israel as Republicans gets Democrats trashed for being enemies of Israel anyway, so they may eventually stop trying to play keep up. poo poo like this is going to keep driving a wedge between American Jews (who are obviously mostly Democrats) and Israel too: https://twitter.com/KurtSchlichter/status/814151369007374336 Getting in an argument with a Holocaust museum doesn't help either: https://twitter.com/KurtSchlichter/status/814218922438201344 Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 03:23 on Dec 29, 2016 |
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 03:19
|
|
|
The Kingfish posted:Obama is a coward. emanresu tnuocca posted:Yes. Why on earth would Obama step out and make a political move with literally zero domestic upside? It's not like there are a lot of single issue Palestinian voters he could sway to his side, or a pro-Palestinian lobby in Congress that would back his play, help him move legislation, or owe him favors. Internationally, everyone who gives a poo poo about Palestine as anything other than a cynical tool already either loves Obama more than his political rivals or has staked out a hard position in the Middle East power game. Literally all he could do would be to distract from his other priorities by throwing himself face first at a Gordian knot that has vexed all his predecessors. Dead Reckoning fucked around with this message at 03:42 on Dec 29, 2016 |
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 03:38
|
|
|
Dead Reckoning posted:Why on earth would Obama step out and make a political move with literally zero domestic upside? It's not like there are a lot of single issue Palestinian voters he could sway to his side, or a pro-Palestinian lobby in Congress that would back his play, help him move legislation, or owe him favors. Internationally, everyone who gives a poo poo about Palestine as anything other than a cynical tool already either loves Obama more than his political rivals or has staked out a hard position in the Middle East power game. Because it's the right thing to do?
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 03:43
|
|
|
Volkerball posted:Because it's the right thing to do? The public just isn't there yet. Doing the right thing is cool and all, but getting ahead of the public on that sort of thing has real consequences that can prevent you from doing other important things that aren't as deeply unpopular. Being perceived as genuinely anti-Israel would have been incredibly damaging to Obama in particular, as it would have fed all the bullshit conspiracy theories about him being a Muslim secret agent. Cynical calculations aside, I think Obama's naivete about foreign policy, especially in his first term, is pretty widely accepted even by Democrats at this point. He really seems to have thought he could save Israel from itself, but Netanyahu doubled down at every opportunity and was rewarded for it by the Israeli voters. Unfortunately it looks like the wave of populist nationalism Netanyahu's been riding was just a precursor for what other democracies pretty much everywhere would be dealing with, though I still think it's going to turn out to be a bad gamble for Israel specifically. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 03:56 on Dec 29, 2016 |
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 03:52
|
|
|
Sinteres posted:The public just isn't there yet. Doing the right thing is cool and all, but getting ahead of the public on that sort of thing has real consequences that can prevent you from doing other important things that aren't as deeply unpopular. Being perceived as genuinely anti-Israel would have been incredibly damaging to Obama in particular, as it would have fed all the bullshit conspiracy theories about him being a Muslim secret agent.  He's less than a month from the end of his presidency. I don't think he has to worry about his political capital at this point...This is also a topic that needs an influential thought leader to broach the idea that the US must place conditions on its heretofore unconditional support for Israel. Obama could do it, but I don't see him taking up the cause.
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 04:33
|
|
|
Cugel the Clever posted:
The question was about why he didn't do more earlier.
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 04:42
|
|
|
Cugel the Clever posted:
TBH, I don't honestly envision a two state solution that doesn't result in another war within a decade.
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 04:43
|
|
|
AreWeDrunkYet posted:While those situations aren't great, the people in Tibet and Crimea are citizens of China and Russia. Israel doesn't have the ability to absorb the population of the West Bank, and governing millions of people while denying them citizenship is what will (hopefully) make that situation eventually untenable. That's the point of the settlements, to increase the Jewish population so eventually a unified Israel and West Bank will have a comfortable majority for the Jews. From Israel's POV the best-case scenario is more settlements until the population of Israel + the West Bank has a strong Jewish majority, followed by formal annexation of the West Bank. This would include giving all Palestinians Israeli citizenship, with the Palestinians integrating into Israeli society. The worst case scenario is more settlements, but Israel not giving Palestinians citizenship out of fear of terrorist attacks, so eventually all the Palestinians would be confined to Gaza and a Gaza-like area in the West Bank which would essentially be the world's largest prisons.
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 04:50
|
|
|
Dead Reckoning posted:People were calling him a coward for having not done it earlier. There's already a war every 3-4 years though.
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 05:13
|
|
|
qkkl posted:That's the point of the settlements, to increase the Jewish population so eventually a unified Israel and West Bank will have a comfortable majority for the Jews. Moving people into the settlements doesn't change the total population of Israel. Israel is going to avoid giving Palestinians citizenship at all costs, because there are simply too many Palestinians to ignore. The population of the Palestinian territories is about 4 million, compared to a total Israeli population of 8 million - about a quarter of which are Israeli Arabs. In other words, if all residents of the West Bank and Gaza were given citizenship right now, Jews would only make up slightly over half of Israeli citizens, and the Palestinians have higher birthrates too. That's why no one talks about a one-state solution with full citizenship for Palestinians - it's utterly unacceptable for Israel. The non-Jewish population would have far too many votes to simply marginalize and ignore, and they would become a powerful political force - to the detriment of the extremist Jewish groups who get to exercise disproportionate control over the government because everyone refuses to coalition with the Arab parties. The problem is that Israel doesn't really have a long-term plan. They expand settlements because it gets them easy votes from the right; the larger question of Palestinians is something they just hope they'll never actually have to answer. Netanyahu's preferred solution is basically bantustans, but the international community is pretty openly signalling that they won't even pretend to recognize them if the settlers take much more of the land.
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 05:41
|
|
|
qkkl posted:That's the point of the settlements, to increase the Jewish population so eventually a unified Israel and West Bank will have a comfortable majority for the Jews. As the NYT says, this is basically Kerry eulogizing the 'two-state solution', because Trump has already made it clear that he will support whatever Israel does 100% and Bibi will have the green-light to do whatever he feels like without US opposition. The rest of the world will continue to oppose settlements but once Obama leaves US policy will be hands-off.
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 05:50
|
|
|
FlamingLiberal posted:Palestinians will remain second-class citizens even as Israel gradually annexes Palestinian land until there is nothing left. That's pretty clearly where this will end. That and a lot of dead Palestinians. I think the more important factor here is Europe. Trump isn't going to be making a lot of friends and if it he antagonizes European countries too much they may might ignore US policy entirely and impose sanctions on Israel for being an apartheid state.
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 06:10
|
|
|
FlamingLiberal posted:Palestinians will remain second-class citizens even as Israel gradually annexes Palestinian land until there is nothing left. That's pretty clearly where this will end. That and a lot of dead Palestinians. Trump said one thing and then said another thing. Bibi is a fool if he isn't nervous about the incoming administration. Although Obama might have just made things more stable for Israel in the short term if Israel becomes a partisan issue.
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 06:10
|
|
|
Dead Reckoning posted:People were calling him a coward for having not done it earlier. Instead you got a one state solution that makes Israel becomes more and more like Turkey.
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 06:18
|
|
|
The Kingfish posted:Bibi is a fool if he isn't nervous about the incoming administration. i got some bad news for you bro
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 06:29
|
|
|
The two state solution is loving dead. I finally realized this after actually talking to people in Israel and the Occupied Territories and seeing it for myself. There's no going back, and that just means it's important for Israel to become more diplomatically isolated until it grants citizenship to the millions of Arabs living under occupation. It's going to take a while and there's definitely going to be intermittent violence for decades even in the most optimistic scenario, but it it'll happen. The Israeli government can't abolish the Palestinians, and the Palestinians can't get rid of the Israelis, so unless the Israelis get worked up enough to pull off a capital-G Genocide (doubtful) that outcome is basically inevitable.
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 06:47
|
|
|
FlamingLiberal posted:Palestinians will remain second-class citizens even as Israel gradually annexes Palestinian land until there is nothing left. That's pretty clearly where this will end. That and a lot of dead Palestinians. If Israel can handle giving full citizenship to its Arab population I think it's at least a possibility that they could grant West Bank Palestinians citizenship sometime in the future if the Jews far outnumber the Palestinians. The two-state solution stopped being an option after the Six Day war. Prior to that a Palestinian state could have been created if Jordan gave away the West Bank. With Israel controlling the West Bank and no one having the power and desire to retake the West Bank there is simply no place for a Palestinian state. If this were the 1500s the Palestinians would immigrate to some newly discovered, relatively uninhabited land to create their state.
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 06:51
|
|
|
qkkl posted:If Israel can handle giving full citizenship to its Arab population I think it's at least a possibility that they could grant West Bank Palestinians citizenship sometime in the future if the Jews far outnumber the Palestinians.
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 07:13
|
|
|
From an objective perspective, a one state solution seems like the obvious and correct answer. But practically speaking, both Israeli Jews and Palestinians would see it as essentially genocidal to their causes. Who in the area actually thinks a one state solution with full citizenship is a good idea? Maybe some particularly naive leftist Jews and Israeli Arabs. No one I met there, in any case. Not particularly powerful groups.
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 07:23
|
|
|
oath2order posted:From an objective perspective, a one state solution seems like the obvious and correct answer. But practically speaking, both Israeli Jews and Palestinians would see it as essentially genocidal to their causes. Who in the area actually thinks a one state solution with full citizenship is a good idea? Maybe some particularly naive leftist Jews and Israeli Arabs. No one I met there, in any case. Not particularly powerful groups. It means there will be a lot of bloodshed, but there's already a lot of bloodshed. I'm an Israeli jew and I think a one state solution is the only way forward. Hopefully with an actual constitution that says something about separation of church and state.
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 08:12
|
|
|
All paths lead to a one state solution. The only variable is the amount of violence it will take to get there.
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 08:58
|
|
|
emanresu tnuocca posted:All paths lead to a one state solution. The only variable is the amount of violence it will take to get there. I'm quite concerned about the violence once it happens as well. We'll have roaming gangs of Jewish supremacists and Arab retribution gangs. I don't trust the police in Israel to navigate that minefield successfully. Hell I don't trust them not to be the Jewish supremacists.
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 09:13
|
|
|
Sinteres posted:They've had help in the US from a Republican Party that's more interested in using issues as weapons against Democrats than in governing. If/when the Democratic Party actually does turn against Israel, it'll be as much because Republicans used it as a wedge issue (obviously with help from Bibi) as because of the actual reality of the situation. Being 90% as pro-Israel as Republicans gets Democrats trashed for being enemies of Israel anyway, so they may eventually stop trying to play keep up. I love that. Being called out by a representative of the Holocaust museum and doubling down instead of realizing "Oh, uh, this might have been a bad tweet."
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 12:10
|
|
|
I'm hearing that a criminal investigation has been opened against Bibi in Israel? Is this still about the German U boats?
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 13:15
|
|
|
evilmiera posted:I love that. Being called out by a representative of the Holocaust museum and doubling down instead of realizing "Oh, uh, this might have been a bad tweet." If you say 'respectful' enough, it must mean you're really respecting them!
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 13:28
|
|
|
botany posted:I'm hearing that a criminal investigation has been opened against Bibi in Israel? Is this still about the German U boats? There is a gag warrant so there's no concrete information but according to the channel 10 news the investigation is not about any of the recent alleged scandals that made the headlines.
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 13:40
|
|
|
oath2order posted:From an objective perspective, a one state solution seems like the obvious and correct answer. But practically speaking, both Israeli Jews and Palestinians would see it as essentially genocidal to their causes. Who in the area actually thinks a one state solution with full citizenship is a good idea? Maybe some particularly naive leftist Jews and Israeli Arabs. No one I met there, in any case. Not particularly powerful groups. http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Palestinians-increasingly-back-1-state About a third of Palestinians and 20% of Israelis. 50 more years of this and I'd imagine reality will set in on more people.
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 14:00
|
|
|
qkkl posted:If Israel can handle giving full citizenship to its Arab population I think it's at least a possibility that they could grant West Bank Palestinians citizenship sometime in the future if the Jews far outnumber the Palestinians. Jews don't far outnumber the Palestinians, though, and the only realistic way for that to happen anywhere in the foreseeable future is ethnic cleansing on a significant scale. And if Israel expels or kills a million-plus Palestinians, it's probably fair to say they won't grant citizenship to the rest.
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 14:45
|
|
|
DarkCrawler posted:http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Palestinians-increasingly-back-1-state This is kind of the critical extract though: quote:
From the Palestinian perspective, this idea is basically a negotiating tactic or a threat rather than something they actually really believe in. Ultimately, I think Palestinianso has less to lose by accepting the legitimacy of the state of Israel than Jews do by accepting Palestinians as fully empowered citizens, and more and more Palestinians are coming to accept that. The Palestinians will basically need to convince the world and themselves thst they want to be Israeli citizens, and that denying them rights has turndown Israel into an apartheid state in truth, rather than de facto. It is, at present, a hard sell. if the trends hold for another decade or 2 though, maybe reevaluate. That assumes wrote get through the Trump years without the region falling into nuclear hellfire, of course.
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 16:14
|
|
|
oath2order posted:From the Palestinian perspective, this idea is basically a negotiating tactic or a threat rather than something they actually really believe in. This is silly. Its a random sample of people, not a conspiracy to mislead an opinion poll and spook some Israelis
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 16:23
|
|
|
A two state solution isn't dead any more than Kerry's belief about a peace deal magically solving the entire Middle East's woes was true. It becomes a lot harder, but all you need is an Ariel Sharon to withdraw. I think politically the status quo is sustainable for a very long time, and Israel ultimately won't create literal bantustans. They'll withdraw to something like the current parameters that were being negotiated between Olmert and Abbas, unilaterally annex those areas with US support, and it'll become de facto official like Russia's various annexations. There's absolutely no chance of a one state solution ever happening.PT6A posted:It's fascinating how successfully the Israeli right-wing has managed to conflate opposition to its polices to opposition to Israel itself, and any opposition to Israeli policies for any reason, as anti-Semitism. There's a wide anti-Zionist movement that is indeed advocating against Israel period instead of the current government. BDS, for instance, has a central tenet of relitigating 1948.
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 17:48
|
|
|
Kim Jong Il posted:BDS, for instance, has a central tenet of relitigating 1948. I don't see that on their website. Link?
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 18:02
|
|
|
botany posted:I don't see that on their website. Link? It's hard to hyperlink to the voices in his head
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 18:08
|
|
|
Kim Jong Il posted:A two state solution isn't dead any more than Kerry's belief about a peace deal magically solving the entire Middle East's woes was true. It becomes a lot harder, but all you need is an Ariel Sharon to withdraw. I think politically the status quo is sustainable for a very long time, and Israel ultimately won't create literal bantustans. They'll withdraw to something like the current parameters that were being negotiated between Olmert and Abbas, unilaterally annex those areas with US support, and it'll become de facto official like Russia's various annexations. There's absolutely no chance of a one state solution ever happening. "Wide" lol. BDS couldn't hold AIPAC's jockstrap.
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 18:55
|
|
|
 
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 20:51
|
|
|
Scroll up if you want to see him double down in response.
|
|
#
?
Dec 29, 2016 22:52
|
|
|
botany posted:I don't see that on their website. Link? It's in their initial declaration of principles. quote:Respecting, protecting and promoting the rights of Palestinian refugees to return to their homes and properties as stipulated in UN resolution 194. Volkerball posted:"Wide" lol. BDS couldn't hold AIPAC's jockstrap. I wasn't talking about their political power in Washington. AIPAC has been shown to be pretty toothless though. Both with lobbying for action on Syria and in trying to stop the Iran deal. I read content from all sides of the spectrum. The opposition to Netanyahu doesn't solely consist of Beinart and Ben Ami. BDS and related groups aren't saying resume the peace process and let's have two states. Quite the contrary. Just like Naftali Bennett, they're celebrating the end of the peace process and loath every single aspect of it.
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2016 00:58
|
|
|
Kim Jong Il posted:It's in their initial declaration of principles.
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2016 01:10
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 15, 2024 16:59 |
|
|
Kim Jong Il posted:It's in their initial declaration of principles. Yes, this will be the time your attempts to use doublespeak and other basic propaganda techniques will win you rhetorical points.
|
|
#
?
Dec 31, 2016 03:22
|
|