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D_Smart
May 11, 2010

by FactsAreUseless
College Slice

D_Smart posted:

1) You have to send a proposal to MS for approval. It's not a design doc, but specific info on the game. MS and Sony have a form for this, complete with guidelines

2) If it gets approved, you're in and can now say you're "approved to publisher"

From that point on, you're on your own. Most of the stuff appears on a portal; including game setup, store page etc - all of which you have to do. Just like on Steam

When you want to start "pushing" builds via that portal for "release", that's when you have to go through cert. And it too is handled via a web portal; and a massive doc with guidelines.

When you are ready to go to cert, you have to make an inspection appointment via your MS account manager. On that day, they run through the game, and the cert steps. If anything (including an incorrectly sized store page image, localization etc) breaks cert, you get a massive report telling you what, how, and why.

You have to fix all of them - as per the report - before you can make another cert appointment

Rinse. Repeat.

And this is the same for boxed retail, as well as digital only games. And patch updates. No exceptions.

Nobody wants to keep going to the cert queue because it takes time when you have to back to the back of the bus. Which is why you have to go through every check, run the game etc - before going through cert

Even on Xbox Game Preview, there are also cert-like guidelines you must follow. You can't just shove a game into the system just because it is early access and expected to not work properly

ps: LOD Tactics on Xbox failed cert twice. Hilariously, one was for store page art, the other was for localization (setup, but not used).

Xbox Game Preview

https://support.xbox.com/en-US/xbox-one/console/xbox-update-preview-faq
http://www.theverge.com/2016/8/16/12503242/microsoft-xbox-game-preview-windows-10-features
http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2015/06/xbox-game-preview-brings-early-access-to-xbox-one-adds-free-demo-options/
http://www.windowscentral.com/microsofts-xbox-game-preview-program-expands-windows-10-everspace

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TrustmeImLegit
Jan 14, 2017

by FactsAreUseless

Please don't doxx its just hateful and weird.

D_Smart
May 11, 2010

by FactsAreUseless
College Slice

Ayn Marx posted:

Imagine being the poor fucker in CIG's QA department responsible for Microsoft TCR... *shivers*

Yeah. Fun times :grin:

TrustmeImLegit
Jan 14, 2017

by FactsAreUseless

MeLKoR posted:

:siren: DON'T YOU DARE TO EVER QUOTE ME AGAIN YOU RETARDED GIMMICK OR I'LL SKULLFUCK YOU IRL :siren:


Posted from iPhone. Location: outside your bedroom window.

Prickly. Maybe don't be wrong so often then.

Chalks
Sep 30, 2009

Tijuana Bibliophile posted:

Well lower average user spending might be good for them though? I mean if the cash keeps ticking in, having the burden shared among a larger tax base should make the whole thing less vulnerable. Am I missing something?

It's basically a chart of their diminishing returns from backers. Back in Q2 2015 if they did some marketing, on average everyone would spend $67. Today, they do that same marketing and not only is their target audience smaller and harder to reach, they'll get less than a quarter of the payback and that's a long term trend.

A year from now, they'll be lucky if 5% of the people they convince to create an account on their website spend a single dollar on the game.

The well is running dry and CIG are completely dependant on the same tiny number of whale backers that they were feeding off 3 years ago - the same backers that are covered by the old TOS and are getting fed up and asking for refunds.

They desperately need to find a new market for their product which is why I find the console port theory so believable. Console ports are always a cash in and a new source of cash is the one thing they need more than anything at the moment.

Foo Diddley
Oct 29, 2011

cat

Ayn Marx posted:

CIG's QA department

Hahaha

Lladre
Jun 28, 2011


Soiled Meat
Did that Cymeliieielieon feller seriously post that MS or Sony will "100%" pay for a port of SQ42?

Guy has to be along con. No way that someone is that delusional.

D_Smart
May 11, 2010

by FactsAreUseless
College Slice

Chalks posted:

It's basically a chart of their diminishing returns from backers. Back in Q2 2015 if they did some marketing, on average everyone would spend $67. Today, they do that same marketing and not only is their target audience smaller and harder to reach, they'll get less than a quarter of the payback and that's a long term trend.

A year from now, they'll be lucky if 5% of the people they convince to create an account on their website spend a single dollar on the game.

The well is running dry and CIG are completely dependant on the same tiny number of whale backers that they were feeding off 3 years ago - the same backers that are covered by the old TOS and are getting fed up and asking for refunds.

They desperately need to find a new market for their product which is why I find the console port theory so believable. Console ports are always a cash in and a new source of cash is the one thing they need more than anything at the moment.

They know this. Which is precisely why we saw all those creative ways they came up with in 2016 to raise new money.

Now comes the talk of consoles.

The Titanic
Sep 15, 2016

Unsinkable

JugbandDude posted:

I can't wait to play this life simulator in space: pander to people feelings in space, wash all my private parts in space, remember my wife's birthday in space, pay my taxes in space... the possibilities are endless.

I hope CR fleshes out traffic control soon. The possibility of being stuck in space traffic jam for hours is very exciting.

I plan to be space police, responding to fender benders for hours as thousands of NPCs and players queue up to land on a space stations 8 docking bays. My npc boss will be so lifelike he'll be all "Just don't go be a loose cannon out there!" And I'll wave my hands and say, "I won't sir! All my cannons have been tied down securely!" And then we'll have an npc/player laugh because he's so real and I really have cannons strapped down in my fidelity cruiser that he doesn't know about. They're to protect me from the possible Metal Gear situation that may result in the unfortunate consequences of piracy.

Chalks
Sep 30, 2009

D_Smart posted:

They know this. Which is precisely why we saw all those creative ways they came up with in 2016 to raise new money.

Now comes the talk of consoles.

I wonder what the backer reaction will be when the saviour of pc gaming confirms that they're spending backer funds on a console port? Obviously they'll lie about it not compromising the fidelity of the game and say that it won't delay anything but what percentage of the backers will buy that and for how many will it be the final straw?

It's going to be a big revelation when they finally admit to it.

TrustmeImLegit
Jan 14, 2017

by FactsAreUseless

Chalks posted:

It's basically a chart of their diminishing returns from backers. Back in Q2 2015 if they did some marketing, on average everyone would spend $67. Today, they do that same marketing and not only is their target audience smaller and harder to reach, they'll get less than a quarter of the payback and that's a long term trend.

A year from now, they'll be lucky if 5% of the people they convince to create an account on their website spend a single dollar on the game.

The well is running dry and CIG are completely dependant on the same tiny number of whale backers that they were feeding off 3 years ago - the same backers that are covered by the old TOS and are getting fed up and asking for refunds.

They desperately need to find a new market for their product which is why I find the console port theory so believable. Console ports are always a cash in and a new source of cash is the one thing they need more than anything at the moment.

Do you have any idea how high 5% capture is?

Slow_Moe
Feb 18, 2013

Chalks posted:

I wonder what the backer reaction will be when the saviour of pc gaming confirms that they're spending backer funds on a console port? Obviously they'll lie about it not compromising the fidelity of the game and say that it won't delay anything but what percentage of the backers will buy that and for how many will it be the final straw?

It's going to be a big revelation when they finally admit to it.

They're going to be very salty. SC being PC exclusive puts them in an elevated position where they can lord over all the console peasants and filthy casuals. With a console release, or at least announcement, that unique privilege is taken away.

D_Smart
May 11, 2010

by FactsAreUseless
College Slice

Chalks posted:

I wonder what the backer reaction will be when the saviour of pc gaming confirms that they're spending backer funds on a console port? Obviously they'll lie about it not compromising the fidelity of the game and say that it won't delay anything but what percentage of the backers will buy that and for how many will it be the final straw?

It's going to be a big revelation when they finally admit to it.

Which is why they've kept it quiet. Now that I've spilled the beans - and for which there's probably a witch hunt going on right now at CIG/RSI - we have to wait and see what they do.

Not to forget the fact that for them to even do a console port of anything, they would need to remain in business as a going concern because it's not going to fund itself to get on the console. They still need the money from backers.

Zzr
Oct 6, 2016

Chalks posted:

It's basically a chart of their diminishing returns from backers. Back in Q2 2015 if they did some marketing, on average everyone would spend $67. Today, they do that same marketing and not only is their target audience smaller and harder to reach, they'll get less than a quarter of the payback and that's a long term trend.

A year from now, they'll be lucky if 5% of the people they convince to create an account on their website spend a single dollar on the game.

The well is running dry and CIG are completely dependant on the same tiny number of whale backers that they were feeding off 3 years ago - the same backers that are covered by the old TOS and are getting fed up and asking for refunds.

They desperately need to find a new market for their product which is why I find the console port theory so believable. Console ports are always a cash in and a new source of cash is the one thing they need more than anything at the moment.

But what do they port ? There is no game. Is the early acces of consoles paying too, so they can again scam some guys ?

ComfyPants
Mar 20, 2002

Since the vast majority of the SQ42 PC audience has already pledged for the game and no new money will come through that pipeline, I'm looking forward to CIG announcing that it will come out on consoles first so that hopefully they can entice people who've already paid for it to buy it again and piss off more of their backers.

Zzr
Oct 6, 2016

TrustmeImLegit posted:

Do you have any idea how high 5% capture is?

It's the other way around. 5% of users of a game that post in its official forum is a high %.

Ayn Marx
Dec 21, 2012

^ I was about to ask that. Why even discuss about whether or not this garbage will get a console port? There's nothing that can be ported to anything :v

ManofManyAliases
Mar 21, 2016
ToastOfManySmarts


Can't post for 3 hours!

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

Chris Roberts
King King
Match Day
Wizadore
Stryker's Run
Ultima V: Warriors of Destiny
Times of Lore
Bad Blood
Wing Commander
Wing Commander: The Secret Missions
Wing Commander: The Secret Missions 2: Crusade
Wing Commander II: Vengeance of the Kilrathi
Wing Commander II: Vengeance of the Kilrathi: Special Operations 1
Wing Commander II: Vengeance of the Kilrathi: Special Operations 2
Strike Commander
Strike Commander: Tactical Operations
Wing Commander: Privateer
Wing Commander: Armada
Wing Commander III: Heart of the Tiger
Wing Commander IV: The Price of Freedom
Starlancer
Conquest: Frontier Wars
Freelancer
Star Citizen

Derek Smart
Battlecruiser 3000AD
Battlecruiser 3000AD (v 2.0)
Battlecruiser Millennium
Battlecruiser Millenium: Gold Edition
Universal Combat
Universal Combat Gold
Universal Combat A World Apart
Universal Combat SE
Universal Combat CE
Universal Combat CE 2.0
Galactic Command Echo Squad
Galactic Command Echo Squad SE
Angle of Attack
All Aspect Warfare
Line of Defense Tactics
Line of Defense

I guess it's a fair criticism about Derek, but can't the same be said of Chris?

You know what, yeah - kind of. Microshit bought out Freelancer so that could be released, but at least kept him on to consult. Take Two couldn't wait to rid themselves of the title.

ManofManyAliases
Mar 21, 2016
ToastOfManySmarts


Can't post for 3 hours!

Sunswipe posted:

Again, the same is true of Chris.

... Chris and Derek are made for each other. They'll finally meet in person to settle this in mortal combat and end up loving.

I would pledge exorbitant amounts of money to see this.

Hav
Dec 11, 2009

Fun Shoe

Slow_Moe posted:

They're going to be very salty. SC being PC exclusive puts them in an elevated position where they can lord over all the console peasants and filthy casuals. With a console release, or at least announcement, that unique privilege is taken away.

There's some interesting tapdancing to do vis a vis the sale of ingame items for real money. Sony at least likes to push stuff through their own store.

Ayn Marx posted:

^ I was about to ask that. Why even discuss about whether or not this garbage will get a console port? There's nothing that can be ported to anything :v

Lack of anything else, and terrible low effort trolls?

Chalks
Sep 30, 2009

TrustmeImLegit posted:

Do you have any idea how high 5% capture is?

lol, read it again. I'm not saying they'll get a 5% capture rate. I'm saying 5% of their capture rate will spend any money at all. It used to be 100% - in fact, on average, it used to be over 100% since so many people would spend more than the base $50.

Their capture rate will be super low simply because the market is so tapped, but no matter how much of that market they manage to reach and how much money they throw at the problem, their cash flow is on a downward spiral kept afloat entirely on the backs of extremely over invested whales.

Zzr posted:

But what do they port ? There is no game. Is the early acces of consoles paying too, so they can again scam some guys ?

Delay SQ42 until the end of 2017 and cut back on everything they can afford to in order to get it to run on a console. They'll probably fail to achieve that, but I'm looking forward to seeing them try.

Chalks fucked around with this message at 20:22 on Jan 16, 2017

ManofManyAliases
Mar 21, 2016
ToastOfManySmarts


Can't post for 3 hours!

Colostomy Bag posted:

How many life rafts would Lesnick consume? Not just body mass, but all WC paraphernalia.

To be fair, there was still room for Jack - and that was only a door.

ManofManyAliases
Mar 21, 2016
ToastOfManySmarts


Can't post for 3 hours!

D_Smart posted:

Nice try, clueless Sally. You guys have mastered revisionist history.

Fact. I never released BC3K. The publisher did.

Fact: As I never released BC3K - nor gave the publisher permission to do so, since my contract prevented it; gave me a massive amount of seed money - because 'Derek Smart was right'

Fact: All games are derivatives. Making different games in the same IP, is how you make money. In most forms of media; be it books, movies or games. But you would know that if 1) you were a gamer 2) not making a pointless jab

Fact: I have made more games than Chris Roberts; and I didn't scam - nor beg anyone - for money to make them.

Your turn.

More titles =/= more games. And as for scam ... reinstate my key that I paid for. No?

Tag: you're it.

ManofManyAliases
Mar 21, 2016
ToastOfManySmarts


Can't post for 3 hours!

D_Smart posted:

So Chris did an eye opening interview with a German magazine which I am having translated for a new blog I am going to be working on.

The shocking key takeaway is that

1) he has finally admitted that they don't have enough money to finish the game.

This after raising $140 million.

2) as my sources indicated and which I reported back in Oct, 3.0 didn't exist at the time when he was claiming it was coming before Dec 19th, 2016.

https://www.reddit.com/r/starcitizen/comments/5nzm2j/some_insight_on_financials_from_gamestar_interview/

So, I was right again, huh?

Sources. Ok let's play this game: Don't specifically name your source. Just tell me what your source does for a living. If you don't reply with something specific within 5 minutes, you're making poo poo up again.

ManofManyAliases
Mar 21, 2016
ToastOfManySmarts


Can't post for 3 hours!

DigitalMocking posted:

Dear Moma:

Derek Smart doesn't need to make good games (he doesn't) to point out what a complete loving scam Star Citizen is. I feel a little bad for you, either you're aware of the bullshit because you're a paid shill or you honestly believe the poo poo CIG puts out. Either way, I just feel pity for you.

I don't get paid by CIG.

D_Smart
May 11, 2010

by FactsAreUseless
College Slice

ManofManyAliases posted:

You know what, yeah - kind of. Microshit bought out Freelancer so that could be released, but at least kept him on to consult. Take Two couldn't wait to rid themselves of the title.

Pucker up and brace for impact. This is going to hurt lots....

My bank account, and their SEC financials* - which included my game that helped them go public - state otherwise.

quote:

* To date, a substantial portion of the Company's revenues has been derived
from a limited number of products. For the year ended October 31, 1996, Advanced
Dungeons and Dragons: Iron & Blood and Ripper each sold more than 150,000 copies
and, with Battlecruiser 3000 A.D., accounted for 32.0%, 28.7.% and 14.2%,
respectively, of the Company's revenues.

D_Smart fucked around with this message at 20:25 on Jan 16, 2017

Kosumo
Apr 9, 2016

TrustmeImLegit posted:

I'm just a fan honestly. Plus I plan on being a big time pirate and this is an infamously pvp friendly forum/org. Its not just goons who think B'tak is ridiculous.

Nonconsentual is the best form of pvp.

pvp = penis, vigina play?

boviscopophobic
Feb 5, 2016

Chalks posted:

It's basically a chart of their diminishing returns from backers. Back in Q2 2015 if they did some marketing, on average everyone would spend $67. Today, they do that same marketing and not only is their target audience smaller and harder to reach, they'll get less than a quarter of the payback and that's a long term trend.

A year from now, they'll be lucky if 5% of the people they convince to create an account on their website spend a single dollar on the game.

The well is running dry and CIG are completely dependant on the same tiny number of whale backers that they were feeding off 3 years ago - the same backers that are covered by the old TOS and are getting fed up and asking for refunds.

They desperately need to find a new market for their product which is why I find the console port theory so believable. Console ports are always a cash in and a new source of cash is the one thing they need more than anything at the moment.

The longitudinal comparison showed an increment in average spending for accounts of all ages, so I now think the correct interpretation of that graph is a combination of a large initial outlay from the earliest purchasers (2013 and prior), combined with a steady increase in spending for accounts of all ages as more time/sales go by. So newer accounts have lower values mostly because they haven't had as much time to spend money.

As for new whales, the "UNBORN" line in a contingency table provides an imperfect estimate of new backer dollars:



So for instance, out of 103,589 accounts established between June 2016 and January 2017, 4 of them are now Wing Commanders, 19 are Space Marshals, etc. This works out to something like $1-5 million worth of funding from new accounts, depending on your assumptions. The new accounts are about 90% Civilians whereas the overall population is about 75% Civilians, so that may indicate something about the number of free accounts.

The question of how many whales there actually are, and just how much they are in for, is still not satisfactorily answered, but it was my main motivation for starting to look at this stuff in the first place.

MeLKoR
Dec 23, 2004

by FactsAreUseless

That will do whale, that will do.

The Rabbi T. White
Jul 17, 2008





ManofManyAliases posted:

Sources. Ok let's play this game: Don't specifically name your source. Just tell me what your source does for a living. If you don't reply with something specific within 5 minutes, you're making poo poo up again.

You don't think that would narrow things right down for the witch hunt?

Zzr
Oct 6, 2016

ManofManyAliases posted:

I don't get paid by CIG.

You mean they don't pay their moderators on their own forum ? That's cheap ; you should have chosen to stream the tech demo, at least you'd get a salary.

BadOptics
Sep 11, 2012

ManofManyAliases posted:

Sources. Ok let's play this game: Don't specifically name your source. Just tell me what your source does for a living. If you don't reply with something specific within 5 minutes, you're making poo poo up again.

Lol. Nobody (except you) is getting paid to monitor this thread in real time.

boviscopophobic
Feb 5, 2016

Chalks posted:

This is really interesting, thanks for posting it. Average spend per user is particularly interesting, although I guess the statistics are very diluted by free fly events.

Here's a question: when free fly events are over, do you reduce the number of active CIG accounts based on the fact that those users can no longer access their accounts (unless they later chose to buy?) It would be interesting to see how many conversions they get from these events or if they majority of activity are from people who decide that the game is trash.

Even if a free fly user bothered to click on the forums to create an account (which doesn't happen all that often, hence the spikes in UEE/forums account ratios) I wouldn't tell be able to tell if that account was a freeloader -- all I'd be able to see is that they have the default title of Civilian, and an enlist date that occurs in a free fly period. So no, I don't do any adjustment for that. Since the data set isn't ideal by any stretch of the imagination, I prefer to report the numbers as they are, keep the assumptions of the analysis relatively simple, and let people figure their own adjustments to the estimates if they disagree with particular assumptions.

AP
Jul 12, 2004

One Ring to fool them all
One Ring to find them
One Ring to milk them all
and pockets fully line them
Grimey Drawer

ManofManyAliases posted:

I would pledge exorbitant amounts of money to see this.

Given your history that's a very low bar.

Galarox
Sep 23, 2015

Fun Shoe

ManofManyAliases posted:

Sources. Ok let's play this game: Don't specifically name your source. Just tell me what your source does for a living. If you don't reply with something specific within 5 minutes, you're making poo poo up again.

Dereks source works at CIG Heavy Industries on the jpeg machines.

ManofManyAliases
Mar 21, 2016
ToastOfManySmarts


Can't post for 3 hours!

D_Smart posted:

Pucker up and brace for impact. This is going to hurt lots....

My bank account, and their SEC financials* - which included my game that helped them go public - state otherwise.

Funny, in your own words your company was bleeding money (both yours and others that were given to you), enhancing just how desperate you were to sell off the rights to BC3000 and 2 other games. No wonder why - Take Two bled money and needed to recoup what they could. 618k is not chump change after all.

"My company, 3000AD, has been operating at a loss since it's inception in 1992. All my money, that of my mother's and indeed development funding and expenses from three publishers were sunk into this game....
To this day, I have people working for me part-time without ever having received more than expense payments and knowing fully well that we were probably investing in wasted time...."


Sigh. Who cares if Take Two made 15% of it's profits from your title in one year. They still bled capital for each year you didn't release it.

But, how does this relate to SC? I just don't understand how - coming from where you did - you have any authority to say what CIG does with their crowd-funded money (hint: you don't).

ManofManyAliases fucked around with this message at 20:43 on Jan 16, 2017

boviscopophobic
Feb 5, 2016

Contingency posted:

How feasible would it be to use the "last active" forum field as a proxy for refund date? People not logging on before requesting a refund through Zendesk would skew the refund date more to the past, but it'd serve as a rough guideline. Would be interesting to see a quarterly breakdown that can be tied to events (Star Marine cancellation, DS ELE prediction posts, post-sale remorse, etc.).

Using that field is a possibility, though it has some problems of its own -- for instance, it turns out that there are certain anomalous accounts where just looking at them causes their last active date to be updated. If you filter those oddballs out, then yes, you could look at that field and it might provide some insight into when account closures occurred, if they occurred prior to all of the forum snapshots I have available for analysis. (If the account closures occurred between a pair of snapshots, then we already know roughly when they happened). Looking at account closures vs account age would also be interesting.

D_Smart
May 11, 2010

by FactsAreUseless
College Slice

Galarox posted:

Dereks source works at CIG Heavy Industries on the jpeg machines.

aleksendr
May 14, 2014

Hav posted:

The Expanse is close, but there's a resurgence in science fiction, so I wouldn't be surprised. Space above and Beyond was killed before it's time, IMO.

The Expanse is good (i loved the first books better then the last ones) but its 0.22 Nielsen rating (0.7 M viewer) is nothing, not even a glimpse, compared to Game of Thrones 4.3 with
7.8 M views. There might be a resurgence of Sci-Fi among our circles of spergs, but its not a widespread tendency in entertainment.

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MeLKoR
Dec 23, 2004

by FactsAreUseless

Chalks posted:

It shows that new backers are spending substantially less than their predecessors did.

It shows the average backer spending $17 when the cheapest ship costs 3 times that. I don't know what it's showing but that can't be right.

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