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themrguy posted:There are a lot of Trumpers making really bad bets right now. Uh I'm scared to get back in though. What kinds of bets?
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Jan 2, 2017 04:27
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Covok posted:What kinds of bets? Obama will preemptively pardon Clinton of undetermined wrongdoing.
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Jan 2, 2017 08:47
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Vox Nihili posted:Obama will preemptively pardon Clinton of undetermined wrongdoing. Simply wow. People really can't get over this, can they?
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Jan 2, 2017 09:09
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2016 on PI  Election day bad, everything else good
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Jan 2, 2017 15:08
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its crazy that Le Pen is going to be in the 2nd round... and sure she *might* have a chance, but 67 for NO is crazy cheap..... right? right? Probably shouldn't bet on poo poo that I don't really have a good feel for the climate on, but this definitely feels like trump money sloshing into the market. edit: mmm the british betting markets have her chances of winning at even better right now (38.5 cents if i did the conversion right, shes at 8/5), so maybe not! Although the difference is the vig I think. Baddog has issued a correction as of 20:28 on Jan 2, 2017 |
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Jan 2, 2017 20:14
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Baddog posted:its crazy that Le Pen is going to be in the 2nd round... and sure she *might* have a chance, but 67 for NO is crazy cheap..... right? right? i think it is a decent price but the yes price will likely go up before it goes down because there is a trump contingent that seemingly bets on whoever the most comparable candidate is everywhere, and if she makes the 2nd round i'd guess she spikes some.
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Jan 2, 2017 21:34
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Watch the Dutch elections in March — if Geert's PVV wins the most seats, I imagine Le Pen's price will spike disclaimer: I know very little about Euro politics
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Jan 2, 2017 23:54
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Anybody shorting any presumptive cabinet appointees? Senate Democrats have promised to fight 8 of Trump's appointments, as far as that goes. I bought some NOs for Price as HHS Secretary. Between his hard on for ACA and his potential insider trading, he seems the most likely to be forced to withdraw. Although with the GOP going after the Ethics panel I'm less confident.
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Jan 3, 2017 17:38
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I have been buying Exxon Mobil SOS nos at 19 cents and selling them at 24 a couple times now. Not sure that will last as we get closer to the date. Nos should increase in value though if the process gets delayed it ends Jan 31.
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Jan 3, 2017 20:41
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Raivin posted:Anybody shorting any presumptive cabinet appointees? Senate Democrats have promised to fight 8 of Trump's appointments, as far as that goes. My Pruitt short never filled, but I'm short DeVos and Price both under 10c a share. DeVos is interesting because she has to be confirmed by Feb 28, and she's on the list Dems pledged to fight. Price is good for the reasons you listed...although in my heart of hearts I think they both get approved. I went long on McMahon in SBA after some chucklefucks crashed the market saying she couldn't be confirmed in time. She can.
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Jan 4, 2017 00:52
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Got a pretty good response out of a Trumpling in the comments the other day:Trumpian posted:"Trumplodyte"... I wish I had thought of that... Compared to what people have evolved into over the last 30 years, I'm proud the be of the species that came prior...
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Jan 6, 2017 08:07
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This market is taking off: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/4393/Will-Obama-pardon-Hillary-Clinton Lots of pressure pushing down the cost of No. I'm maxed, but folks might be able to get in for 80 cents or below. Plenty of right-wing media hype about ~possible pardons~ fueling this madness.
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Jan 10, 2017 22:53
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Vox Nihili posted:This market is taking off: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/4393/Will-Obama-pardon-Hillary-Clinton maxed at 80 
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Jan 10, 2017 23:44
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Vox Nihili posted:This market is taking off: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/4393/Will-Obama-pardon-Hillary-Clinton ive been drinking and im feelign the call of the void again...
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Jan 11, 2017 00:18
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jarofpiss posted:ive been drinking and im feelign the call of the void again... extremely relevant username
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Jan 11, 2017 01:51
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ok ok, come on obama, its "affordable care act" in your last speech not "obamacare". right?
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Jan 11, 2017 02:49
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jarofpiss posted:ive been drinking and im feelign the call of the void again... I've got a TImber Beast Rye IPA, not as hoppy as I'd expect but good edit: wait this isn't the thread about crippling alcoholism Squalid has issued a correction as of 03:49 on Jan 11, 2017 |
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Jan 11, 2017 03:38
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Squalid posted:I've got a TImber Beast Rye IPA, not as hoppy as I'd expect but good We don't talk about it much, but we all have it after this election.
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Jan 11, 2017 06:22
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Mother fer my Blago pardon yes from 3 week ago never filled at 4 cents and now it is 12 cents. Why am I so cheap. I knew the Trumpers would be all over this.
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Jan 11, 2017 18:07
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Elephanthead posted:Mother fer my Blago pardon yes from 3 week ago never filled at 4 cents and now it is 12 cents. Why am I so cheap. I knew the Trumpers would be all over this. I feel like Obama pardons no one anyone has ever heard of. Just seems like he is so sensitive to anything that will play poorly in his legacy.
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Jan 11, 2017 18:30
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Baddog posted:I feel like Obama pardons no one anyone has ever heard of. Just seems like he is so sensitive to anything that will play poorly in his legacy. Of course now he is gonna rip that mask off and go all chicago-pol on his last day, get out of jail free cards for everyone!
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Jan 11, 2017 18:33
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No I was playing the bump and sell the reality before we got to close to the deadline. I went to sell today but atlas it was not filled.
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Jan 11, 2017 19:42
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Our fellow traders on Predictit really think Chelsea Manning has a good shot at a pardon/commutation. Price sitting at 50/50 on the strength of this article: http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/army-leaker-chelsea-manning-obama-s-short-list-commutation-n705441 https://www.predictit.org/Contract/4940/Will-Obama-pardon-Chelsea-Manning-or-commute-her-sentence#data
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Jan 12, 2017 20:03
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Vox Nihili posted:Our fellow traders on Predictit really think Chelsea Manning has a good shot at a pardon/commutation. Price sitting at 50/50 on the strength of this article: http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/army-leaker-chelsea-manning-obama-s-short-list-commutation-n705441 Man this is super tempting to jump back in on. No way in hell does Obama pardon her
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Jan 12, 2017 20:35
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What makes you think that NBC piece is not credible? Is the DoJ just floating this to placate people for a week? What's the point of publicly saying that Manning is "on the short list" this late in the game if there isn't a reasonable chance she gets a commutation? 50% seems like an appropriate price now.
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Jan 12, 2017 20:43
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bawfuls posted:What makes you think that NBC piece is not credible? Is the DoJ just floating this to placate people for a week? What's the point of publicly saying that Manning is "on the short list" this late in the game if there isn't a reasonable chance she gets a commutation? 50% seems like an appropriate price now. I think a commutation is probably being considered, based on the news. But I don't think it's the type of case that Obama would actually act on. We will see.
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Jan 12, 2017 21:18
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Vox Nihili posted:I think a commutation is probably being considered, based on the news. But I don't think it's the type of case that Obama would actually act on. We will see. Yeah I'm less certain about that. I'm short pardon Lois Lerner and Hillary - but commuting Manning's sentence seems possible. Not pardon, but commutation.
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Jan 12, 2017 23:47
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Vox Nihili posted:I think a commutation is probably being considered, based on the news. But I don't think it's the type of case that Obama would actually act on. We will see. I mean, it's definitely reasonable for the market to be up - it was in low single digits before then. I managed to snag up all the shares from 12-18 on the news, flipped for about $150 or so in the 40s.
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Jan 13, 2017 01:12
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The tweet markets have been amazing, making bank
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Jan 17, 2017 01:28
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Vox Nihili posted:I think a commutation is probably being considered, based on the news. But I don't think it's the type of case that Obama would actually act on. We will see. Hope no one listened to my input on this. I didn't have any shares myself.
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Jan 17, 2017 22:33
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Obama not pardoning Clinton is still sitting at 87 cents if anyone wants a quick flip.
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Jan 17, 2017 23:00
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This is a five star thread. Would read again.
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Jan 18, 2017 04:28
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Predictit has taught me that when there is an instance where one of two things will happen, the worse of those two things is what will happen 100% of the time.
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Jan 18, 2017 04:34
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Vox Nihili posted:Hope no one listened to my input on this. I didn't have any shares myself. I found your original argument compelling enough to buy 33 shares that she wouldn't be pardoned. That said, I cannot comprehend the suffering that Chelsea Manning has suffered over the last decade and I applaud Obama for showing mercy and compassion. I hope this is the beginning of a path towards peace and healing for her. I am happy happy to have lost this $20 and the only thing that makes this bittersweet is this is the 10000th reminder that we are trading in a leader of integrity and vision, a protector of the environment and of the weak and powerless, a man of honor and morality who was a public servant in the best way imaginable for one that promises darkness, division, and corruption.
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Jan 18, 2017 22:12
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I found your original argument compelling enough to buy 33 shares that she wouldn't be pardoned. That said, I cannot comprehend the suffering that Chelsea Manning has suffered over the last decade and I applaud Obama for showing mercy and compassion. I hope this is the beginning of a path towards peace and healing for her. I am happy happy to have lost this $20 and the only thing that makes this bittersweet is this is the 10000th reminder that we are trading in a leader of integrity and vision, a protector of the environment and of the weak and powerless, a man of honor and morality who was a public servant in the best way imaginable for one that promises darkness, division, and corruption. Hahahahahahahahah
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Jan 19, 2017 00:32
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I would rather Manning die in prison the lose the five bucks I did.
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Jan 19, 2017 00:47
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Elephanthead posted:I would rather Manning die in prison the lose the five bucks I did. That certainly is one viewpoint. I didn't look at the market myself but I guess they are counting a commutation as a pardon?
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Jan 19, 2017 00:58
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tangy yet delightful posted:I didn't look at the market myself but I guess they are counting a commutation as a pardon?
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Jan 19, 2017 01:16
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AceRimmer posted:The rules included both as YES options afaik Rules used the word "clemency" specifically, I believe.
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Jan 19, 2017 06:08
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Jan 19, 2017 12:59
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