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Poll: Who Should Be Leader of HM Most Loyal Opposition? This poll is closed. |
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| Jeremy Corbyn |
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95 | 18.63% |
| Dennis Skinner |
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53 | 10.39% |
| Angus Robertson |
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20 | 3.92% |
| Tim Farron |
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9 | 1.76% |
| Paul Ukips |
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7 | 1.37% |
| Robot Lenin |
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105 | 20.59% |
| Tony Blair |
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28 | 5.49% |
| Pissflaps |
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193 | 37.84% |
| Total: | 510 votes | ||
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Darth Walrus posted:Again, understanding 'most Labour voters went remain, but most Labour constituencies voted Leave' is not all that hard if you remember that Britain uses an FPTP system, where you only need a plurality, rather than a majority, to win. Or, to put it another way, a 'safe' seat is one where you always get 40% of the vote and your closest competition can only manage 30% at best. In a yes/no referendum, though, the vote can't be split, and so a bunch of Labour MPs had to deal with the uncomfortable realisation that a majority of their constituents don't agree with their policies, and have only failed to boot them out because they can't decide whether they like UKIP, the Conservatives, or the BNP more. It's really not. In Copeland and in both Labour held seats adjacent to Copeland they lost vote share in 2015 despite Labour gaining vote share in England over all in 2015. Regional decline of the Labour vote needs to be figured out beyond the Pissflaps analysis. The vote wasn't "split" in Stoke - most of the UKIP voters would never vote Tory; and most of the Tory voters would never vote UKIP. There's no coalition there. Edit: 52. The number of weeks this year something bad will happen.
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Mar 11, 2017 02:15
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Man, I was trying to write a sarcy post but gently caress Jeremy Hunt for acting like this is just a failure of the NHS to pull it's finger out and get cracking rather than a systemic government failure to provide a level of funding of both the NHS and it's supporting services for over half a decade. If Theresa May's such an idealist where does she find the time for such an odious, obviously political shill in her cabinet?
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Mar 11, 2017 02:19
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quote:So what of the extra health investment announced in the Budget? quote:These extra investments in health will be treated as capital spending rather than revenue for running costs so the money can't be used for recruiting staff. So now hospitals get to travel to the capital and petition Emperor Hunt himself, known for his wisdom and generosity
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Mar 11, 2017 02:28
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All the buildings you want with no staff to run them
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Mar 11, 2017 02:50
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baka kaba posted:^^^ Well of course you don't. Corbyn bad What percentage of Labour voted remain is really irrelevant to this overall question. However that graph does show that if Labour matched the lib dems, remain would have won.
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Mar 11, 2017 02:56
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Fangz posted:What percentage of Labour voted remain is really irrelevant to this overall question. How do you reckon
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Mar 11, 2017 02:58
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baka kaba posted:How do you reckon Because the question is really about the counterfactual. The question of how well things would have turned out under a different leader, if the campaign was run differently, etc etc. It's fundamentally unanswerable with this sort of data. It's also pretty silly overall to imagine that each party leader is only responsible for their own voters' referendum vote. It's not like Labour voters did not see the UKIP Brexit bus. There's no way to disentangle different campaigners' influence like that. Edit: If Corbyn somehow drove Labour to vote in large numbers for Brexit while making every ukipper and Tory leaver stay home in terror he would have been a success. If Corbyn got 100% of Labour voters to go remain but galvanised every Tory and Kipper to vote leave specifically to spite him he would have been a failure. But that's invisible in this. Fangz fucked around with this message at 03:11 on Mar 11, 2017 |
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Mar 11, 2017 03:01
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Well that goes for every party, but the narrative is that 'Corbyn failed' and the only way we can really judge that (or claim it in the first place) is by looking at how each party's voters went. And that's not exactly a massive gap between Labour and the Lib Dems, whose base are much more likely to be pro-EU and less affected by the issues that were being blamed on the EU. Maybe Farron should have done better? And Cameron? It may not prove anything but that's these are the premises everyone's running under when they talk about this stuff, so it's looking at the argument on its own terms
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Mar 11, 2017 03:13
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baka kaba posted:So now hospitals get to travel to the capital and petition Emperor Hunt himself, known for his wisdom and generosity Let's not forget the other cycle that happens every time they introduce policies like this: The trusts and individual hospitals competing with each other for funding all have to increase the number of staff it employs to put together pitch packages and market their plans to the government, all of which need to be full of further research and feasibility studies which costs money regardless of whether or not they get the funding from the government. The right wing press then kicks up a fuss about the number of "bureaucratic" staff at the hospitals and hold them somehow responsible for the lack of doctors and nurses. The gov uses this as further reason to tighten the purse on hospitals.
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Mar 11, 2017 03:19
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spectralent posted:Man, I was trying to write a sarcy post but gently caress Jeremy Hunt for acting like this is just a failure of the NHS to pull it's finger out and get cracking rather than a systemic government failure to provide a level of funding of both the NHS and it's supporting services for over half a decade. Rumour has the person May wanted as health secretary turned it down at the last minute, which is why Hunt arrived at Downing Street to be sacked but was sent away again with his job intact. Turning down a cabinet post is widely regarded as career suicide, so the fact that it's even rumoured to have happened shows what a poisoned chalice Health is. Hunt has already come out and said it's his last job in politics, and he's right whether he wants it that way or not. He's kept in place because he doesn't fear the personal consequences of being the man who destroyed the NHS, and that's useful to the Tories.
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Mar 11, 2017 03:20
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Hunt is very good at his job, which is being the NHS Terminator. He just keeps going Why would he want a politics job after this anyway? He's going to be showered with gold by the private sector for services rendered Skinty McEdger posted:Let's not forget the other cycle that happens every time they introduce policies like this: The trusts and individual hospitals competing with each other for funding all have to increase the number of staff it employs to put together pitch packages and market their plans to the government, all of which need to be full of further research and feasibility studies which costs money regardless of whether or not they get the funding from the government. The right wing press then kicks up a fuss about the number of "bureaucratic" staff at the hospitals and hold them somehow responsible for the lack of doctors and nurses. The gov uses this as further reason to tighten the purse on hospitals. I think the markets can provide a service solution for this conundrum, friend. Step forward, Atos! G4S! Capita! And whatever the 4th horseman is these days
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Mar 11, 2017 03:27
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baka kaba posted:He's going to be showered with gold by the private sector for services rendered baka kaba posted:I think the markets can provide a service solution for this conundrum, friend. Step forward, Atos! G4S! Capita! And whatever the 4th horseman is these days
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Mar 11, 2017 03:46
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quote:An atmosphere of cynicism about politics and politicians…suits the agenda of those wishing to rein back the active state, as in the form of the welfare state and Keynesian state, precisely in order to liberate and deregulate…private power.
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Mar 11, 2017 06:48
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I mean, that article states that if hospitals can't hit 95% by this time next year, the buck will have stopped with Hunt. Whereas, in Toryland, the hospitals will have failed despite extra funding being available and therefore should be taken over by administrators* immediately. * - I was going to go with 'privatised', but after the failure of Hinchingbrooke/Circle, I'm not sure the queue would be a long one.
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Mar 11, 2017 09:29
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baka kaba posted:Hunt is very good at his job, which is being the NHS Terminator. He just keeps going He's really excellent at appearing gently bemused by interviewers who maintain that he should bear at least SOME responsibility for the current state of the NHS.
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Mar 11, 2017 09:45
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Lord of the Llamas posted:It's really not. Over it ScotPol I did some basic wiki sourced number crunching for Stoke and Copeland since 1983, and the resulting trends are really worrying for anyone who isn't right wing. It's very basic and simplistic, and obviously not at all rigorous, since I just divided votes into "poo poo" (Tory, any flavour of right wing nationalism, Leave), "not poo poo" (Labour, Libs/SDP, various small left wing parties, Remain) and independents (who I know nothing about). Given UKMT's leanings i imagine the inclusion of libs/sdp amongst the not shits might set some teeth gnashing, but we're talking relative terms here, so hopefully the broader point is clear enough. As simplistic as it is,I found that it gave a pretty good overview of voting patterns, and suggests to me that the problem is far deeper than Corbyn or Brexit or even the Labour party as a whole (which is not to say these things aren't problematic), and potentially leads to some rather troubling conclusions about the voting trends of much of the Labour heartlands. You can see the clear effects of a Blair bounce from 1992 to 1997, but it's notable that by Blair's last election in 2005 the "not poo poo" vote share (which, remember, includes the Lib Dems) is back to the same levels as 1983. The most striking and alarming thing, at least to me, is the way the "not poo poo" vote plummets between 2005 and 2015, dropping below 50% and far below anything seen in the pre-blair 80s. There's obviously a myriad of causes, but the poo poo general election vote rising by near 20% in Copeland and 30% (!) in stoke is drat near horrifying to me Copeland: (note, occasionally these don't add up to 100% due to, I assume, the source figures all being rounded to one decimal place) Date: 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015, EUref, 2017 poo poo: 39.9%, 43%, 43.4%, 32.6%, 37.5%, 35.9%, 42.8%, 51.3%, 62%, 50.8% Not poo poo: 60.1%, 57%, 56.6%, 67.2%, 62.5%, 62%, 57.1%, 48.8%, 38%, 46.2% Independents 2.2% (2005) 3% (2017) Stoke Central: Date: 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015, EUref, 2017 poo poo: 29.4%, 31%, 27.9%, 20.9%, 18.8%, 28.4%, 33%, 45.2%, 69.4%, 50.1% Not poo poo: 70.7%, 68.9% 72%, 79%, 75.4%, 71.7%, 60.9%, 47.9%, 30.6%, 48.9% Independents: 5.9% (2001), 6% (2010), 6.9% (2015), 0.9% (2017)
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Mar 11, 2017 10:02
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Niric posted:Over it ScotPol I did some basic wiki sourced number crunching for Stoke and Copeland since 1983, and the resulting trends are really worrying for anyone who isn't right wing.
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Mar 11, 2017 10:13
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Guavanaut posted:I hope someone pisses on him. Unless he enjoys it. I hope someone sets him on fire personally, you have to dream big
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Mar 11, 2017 10:17
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Niric posted:Over it ScotPol I did some basic wiki sourced number crunching for Stoke and Copeland since 1983, and the resulting trends are really worrying for anyone who isn't right wing.
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Mar 11, 2017 11:22
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As an outsider I have a question - are there any "sane Tories", or like the sane Republicans in America, were they chased out of politics/into Labour?
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Mar 11, 2017 11:24
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Lightning Lord posted:As an outsider I have a question - are there any "sane Tories", or like the sane Republicans in America, were they chased out of politics/into Labour? Most Tories aren't as ridiculously socially conservative as the kind of chucklefucks you have in the Republican Party. They do have a socially liberal wing that would probably fit in with the more fiscally conservative Democrats. More relevant right now would be the more anti Brexit Tories like Ken Clarke and Anna Spivey. And as far as I'm aware, only Shaun Woodward made the jump to Labour and that was way back when the Tories were still opposed to the repeal of section 28. Bercow was rumoured to before being elected speaker though. GEORGE W BUSHI fucked around with this message at 11:37 on Mar 11, 2017 |
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Mar 11, 2017 11:33
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Lightning Lord posted:As an outsider I have a question - are there any "sane Tories", or like the sane Republicans in America, were they chased out of politics/into Labour? A lot of people are true believers in the free market and think Labour voters are naive for thinking there are alternatives, even if they are 'socially liberal'.
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Mar 11, 2017 11:34
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Lightning Lord posted:As an outsider I have a question - are there any "sane Tories", or like the sane Republicans in America, were they chased out of politics/into Labour? There are certainly Tories who are pro-EU/migrants/whatever but they have either been forced into hiding because May is by all accounts a complete dictator, plus the fact that the current path seems to be be, you know, winning.
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Mar 11, 2017 11:40
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Lord of the Llamas posted:This is as valid as saying politician X alienated swing voters by saying they were 10/10 for the EU because it showed they obviously didn't take their concerns about the EU seriously. No, making up foolish arguments nobody has actually said doesn't somehow invalidate an argument that's actually been made. Corbyn was not asked whether the EU was perfect, he was asked how much he wanted to remain in it. 7.5/10 is not a good answer to that. A good answer would be "the EU has many faults and I take people's concerns seriously but i believe the best result for the UK in this referendum would be to stay in". Not "7.5 out of 10" for staying in. Look at it this way. I think just about everyone in this thread now has some.doubts about Mr Corbyn. Supposing during a general election campaign Chukka Umunna knocked on your door and you said "how enthusiastic are you about getting a Labour government" and he said "7.5 out of ten", would it cross your mind to think that was a good bit of campaigning? You can admit something isn't perfect when still making a case that it's definitely the best of the options on the ballot paper.
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Mar 11, 2017 11:46
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Pretty sure the question was something about how committed he was to the EU, not to a remain vote.
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Mar 11, 2017 12:00
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Paracaidas posted:Since when has New Labour been allowed to post ITT? What do you mean? 
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Mar 11, 2017 12:02
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Paxman posted:A good answer would be "the EU has many faults and I take people's concerns seriously but i believe the best result for the UK in this referendum would be to stay in". Not "7.5 out of 10" for staying in. Supposed "straight talking" politician unable to answer direct question. Is Corbyn number literate? Watch as he is unable to give an answer to this interviewers question. Barmy Corbyn can't even interview well on left wing comedy show.
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Mar 11, 2017 12:02
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There's more sane conservatives in the UK than there are sane socialists. Pretty much all Tory voters are sane. They just at their heart only truly care about themselves.
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Mar 11, 2017 12:05
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I was thinking more about the question I was asked yesterday evening, "What position do you fall into?" and on further reflection I imagine most people would probably take a look at me and say generic social liberal. You know, like Clement Attlee.
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Mar 11, 2017 12:11
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mehall posted:Supposed "straight talking" politician unable to answer direct question. Was he asked to give a score out of ten for staying in the EU during the original interview?
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Mar 11, 2017 12:16
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Pissflaps posted:Was he asked to give a score out of ten for staying in the EU during the original interview? From what I recall when watching it, yes, I'm reasonably confident. I could be wrong, we're relying on my memory of a comedy show from 9 months ago or so.
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Mar 11, 2017 12:20
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Pissflaps posted:Was he asked to give a score out of ten for staying in the EU during the original interview? From memory it went almost exactly like this Breakfast news interviwer: "How much on a 1 to 10 scale would you like the UK to stay in the EU?" Corbyn "About seven and a half"
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Mar 11, 2017 12:26
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Paxman posted:No, making up foolish arguments nobody has actually said doesn't somehow invalidate an argument that's actually been made. You're putting a huge amount of emphasis on one person's answer to one question on one TV show for the loss of the whole referendum. Sure it wasn't the best answer, but how likely was it to change the minds of tens of thousands of people? You've basically fallen into the right wing media pattern of thinking, where every bad policy or horrible decision made by the Tories is somehow Corbyns fault. He's already been blamed for the rise in NIC, when are you going to agree with that? If Cameron had got his voters to listen to him then we'd still be in the EU.
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Mar 11, 2017 12:28
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I was late the last time we discussed this, but I thought some of the analysis of the media during the referendum was interesting and worth a look at; https://blog.lboro.ac.uk/crcc/eu-referendum/uk-news-coverage-2016-eu-referendum-report-5-6-may-22-june-2016/ The entire set of reports are worth reading IMO (there's ones discussing not just Labour but all parties visibility and the dominance of Conservative talking heads) although I wasn't able to find a quick list of them for easy access; https://blog.lboro.ac.uk/crcc/eu-referendum/ As well as the related published analysis after the referendum which is available to read online (broken into subject articles and giving reference) here; EU Referendum Analysis 2016:Media, Voters and the Campaign
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Mar 11, 2017 12:32
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The thing is that going into the referendum, the overwhelming majority of voters on both sides had already made up their minds anyway. I think that if you had held the vote on day one, it would have been more or less the same as it was on 23 June. I imagine that the number of people whose minds were changed by the campaign was negligible. If Cameron had been prepared to negotiate us down to a kind of associate partnership rather than full membership (which is what Merkel and Hollande allegedly offered early on), that might have been a different result. I think he could have sold that to more Conservative voters. But the fact is that the Conservative voters were out of step with most Conservative MPs on the matter and the renegotiation was never going to convince them because it didn't look like it would meaningfully change anything at all.
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Mar 11, 2017 12:37
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To me the overwhelming fact of the referendum is that was mostly geared around racism pure and simple and no bugger who voted leave will admit it.
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Mar 11, 2017 12:43
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Racism and a misguided sense of rebellion that only served to hurt themselves and made the elite do a sensible chuckle. Remember when the Welsh valleys said "enough!" And voted to end all the money given to Wales by the EU? Righteous.
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Mar 11, 2017 12:53
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Here's the Corbyn Last Leg quote exactly: Presenter: So let me put it this way, okay, on a scale of one to ten, where one is "couldn't really care less about the EU", and ten is "I'm jumping on the couch like Tom Cruise on Oprah", how passionate are you about staying in the EU? Corbyn: Oh, I'd put myself in the upper half of the five to ten, so we're looking at seven, seven and a half... maybe seven, seven and a half"
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Mar 11, 2017 12:56
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I can't get enough of are Dan
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Seaside Loafer posted:To me the overwhelming fact of the referendum is that was mostly geared around racism pure and simple and no bugger who voted leave will admit it. Oh if only those seventeen million racist bigoted clueless morons would admit they were racist bigoted clueless morons, we wouldn't be in this mess right now.
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Mar 11, 2017 12:58
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I voted remain because I hate the EU and all its inhabitants and thought Britain could do a better job of bringing it down from the inside.
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Mar 11, 2017 13:08
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