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Poll: Who Should Be Leader of HM Most Loyal Opposition?
This poll is closed.
Jeremy Corbyn 95 18.63%
Dennis Skinner 53 10.39%
Angus Robertson 20 3.92%
Tim Farron 9 1.76%
Paul Ukips 7 1.37%
Robot Lenin 105 20.59%
Tony Blair 28 5.49%
Pissflaps 193 37.84%
Total: 510 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
  • Locked thread
Wheat Loaf
Feb 13, 2012

by FactsAreUseless
Can't be denied that we had a pretty sweet deal in the EU and the French and the Germans at least seemed keen enough on us staying in that I reckon we could've gotten even more out of them. It's foolish to walk away from a bargain like that.

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Bobstar
Feb 8, 2006

KartooshFace, you are not responding efficiently!

Wheat Loaf posted:

The thing is that going into the referendum, the overwhelming majority of voters on both sides had already made up their minds anyway. I think that if you had held the vote on day one, it would have been more or less the same as it was on 23 June. I imagine that the number of people whose minds were changed by the campaign was negligible.


See, this is interesting, because I had idly considered this and come to the opposite conclusion - based on nothing more than unfounded speculation of course. If Cameron had said "we're having the referendum, and it's tomorrow, GO!", I felt like more people would have gone "aaah what already right ok what's the deal" and ended up voting Remain just because it's the status quo - no time for anyone to make any kind of reassuring noises about Leaving being ok. Or for the idea to develop that this might actually be happening.

But your version is interesting, and I wonder if the effect would have been more like "don't like the EU, vote leave", no time to worry it'll actually happen.

Seaside Loafer
Feb 7, 2012

Waiting for a train, I needed a shit. You won't bee-lieve what happened next

HJB posted:

Oh if only those seventeen million racist bigoted clueless morons would admit they were racist bigoted clueless morons, we wouldn't be in this mess right now.
Agreed.

jBrereton
May 30, 2013
Grimey Drawer

Wheat Loaf posted:

The thing is that going into the referendum, the overwhelming majority of voters on both sides had already made up their minds anyway. I think that if you had held the vote on day one, it would have been more or less the same as it was on 23 June. I imagine that the number of people whose minds were changed by the campaign was negligible.
I dunno, I think the cackhanded remain campaign probably forced us out.

Breath Ray
Nov 19, 2010
If you read the Dominic Cummings thing you will see that the leave campaign picked up support along the way to emerge triumphant and I expect the polls duriny the course of the campaigns reflected that.

Wheat Loaf
Feb 13, 2012

by FactsAreUseless
Maybe. Maybe I'm completely wrong. That's my impression of it but I could well be in a bubble.

Perhaps it's like general elections: oppositions never win elections; governments lose them.

I think the only big exception is 1945 but that was a unique case (it's really interesting to read some contemporary accounts of people saying, "I voted Labour, but I want Churchill as prime minister.")

jBrereton
May 30, 2013
Grimey Drawer
Imagine having the open goal of Michael Gove as your official opposition and somehow loving it up with mixed messages about immigration that pleased nobody, a through-government propaganda campaign with the same ugliness as the Iraq War days, and threatening to attack the poor for voting wrong unless they somehow get rid of you.

loving shameful.

jBrereton
May 30, 2013
Grimey Drawer

Wheat Loaf posted:

I think the only big exception is 1945 but that was a unique case (it's really interesting to read some contemporary accounts of people saying, "I voted Labour, but I want Churchill as prime minister.")
I dunno, the '51 election was also pretty special, with a Labour majority of the public vote but a Tory victory due to FPTP.

Breath Ray
Nov 19, 2010

Wheat Loaf posted:

Maybe. Maybe I'm completely wrong. That's my impression of it but I could well be in a bubble.

Perhaps it's like general elections: oppositions never win elections; governments lose them.

I think the only big exception is 1945 but that was a unique case (it's really interesting to read some contemporary accounts of people saying, "I voted Labour, but I want Churchill as prime minister.")

I think leave timed it just right in terms of the crescendo but there were a few evemts or announcements that made remain wobble. I think the most shocking thing about remain campaign was the team was so bad. I think it was seen as a lock so frighteningly junior nobody ppl like serial failure will straw could cut their teeth. They should have just put ken Clarke front and centre. The guy had a book to sell after all.

Wheat Loaf
Feb 13, 2012

by FactsAreUseless

jBrereton posted:

I dunno, the '51 election was also pretty special, with a Labour majority of the public vote but a Tory victory due to FPTP.

Yes, I suppose that sometimes happens. I think that's a shortcoming of the system. For instance, I think it's a bit silly that UKIP had four million votes at the last election and came out of it with one seat, while the SNP got 56 on a quarter of that. I think that seems unfair regardless of who's benefiting or losing out from it.

If we had had a proportional system last time around, the government now would probably be Conservatives/UKIP/DUP coalition instead of just the Conservatives, which would have been more reflective of the votes cast.

Wheat Loaf
Feb 13, 2012

by FactsAreUseless

Breath Ray posted:

I think leave timed it just right in terms of the crescendo but there were a few evemts or announcements that made remain wobble. I think the most shocking thing about remain campaign was the team was so bad. I think it was seen as a lock so frighteningly junior nobody ppl like serial failure will straw could cut their teeth. They should have just put ken Clarke front and centre. The guy had a book to sell after all.

What If: Cameron had managed to get Jeremy Clarkson as a leading Remain spokesman? :v:

jBrereton
May 30, 2013
Grimey Drawer

Wheat Loaf posted:

Yes, I suppose that sometimes happens.
Pretty sure it's the 1 time the largest party by vote didn't win the GE but I might be wrong.

goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you
Fun Shoe

Wheat Loaf posted:

What If: Cameron had managed to get Jeremy Clarkson as a leading Remain spokesman? :v:

You know what? Based on viewership and likelihood to influence, I'm willing to bet Clarkson's pro-EU columns in the Sun and the Times threw way more people to Remain than Corbyn's appearance on a Channel 4 comedy show.

Wheat Loaf
Feb 13, 2012

by FactsAreUseless

goddamnedtwisto posted:

You know what? Based on viewership and likelihood to influence, I'm willing to bet Clarkson's pro-EU columns in the Sun and the Times threw way more people to Remain than Corbyn's appearance on a Channel 4 comedy show.

It's more conjecture on my part and I don't think the idea would actually work because:

a) Clarkson is an rear end in a top hat and I don't think even people who say "The PC police want to shut him up because he's just saying what everyone's thinking!" take him too seriously as a commentator and they'd probably turn on him pretty sharpish if ended up a pro-Remain spokesman;

b) Clarkson is probably too pro-EU for even the majority of people who voted Remain based on his advocacy for the EU becoming a federal super-state with a single EU army; and

c) There would probably be enough people who'd think, "I don't want to be on the same side as a RACIST," and abstain to cancel out the negligible number of people Clarkson would win for Remain.

Remember when Prince William made that speech where he implied (about as openly as it's politically possible for a member of the royal family to manage) that leaving the EU would be a mistake? Go back and look at the front pages of the Daily Express in the fortnight after that; all kinds of stuff about how he's going bald and generally trying to make him look ignorant. I reckon it would be the same with Clarkson.

Wheat Loaf fucked around with this message at 14:15 on Mar 11, 2017

Paxman
Feb 7, 2010

I saw a Daily Mail today and its page after page about how poo poo the Government is. Apparently the Tories have introduced some sort of death tax, Justine Greening is bad for cutting school fundng and big businesses are being allowed to get away with not paying their taxes. Plus, a big Peter Oborne column on how Theresa May must disown George Osborne for being agreedy bastard.

goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you
Fun Shoe

Paxman posted:

I saw a Daily Mail today and its page after page about how poo poo the Government is. Apparently the Tories have introduced some sort of death tax, Justine Greening is bad for cutting school fundng and big businesses are being allowed to get away with not paying their taxes. Plus, a big Peter Oborne column on how Theresa May must disown George Osborne for being agreedy bastard.

The Mail hated Thatcher too, and pretty much every woman in a position of power or fame that isn't one of their columnists.

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer

jBrereton posted:

Imagine having the open goal of Michael Gove as your official opposition and somehow loving it up with mixed messages about immigration that pleased nobody, a through-government propaganda campaign with the same ugliness as the Iraq War days, and threatening to attack the poor for voting wrong unless they somehow get rid of you.

loving shameful.

should have just lied non-stop imo

jBrereton
May 30, 2013
Grimey Drawer

Paxman posted:

I saw a Daily Mail today and its page after page about how poo poo the Government is. Apparently the Tories have introduced some sort of death tax, Justine Greening is bad for cutting school fundng and big businesses are being allowed to get away with not paying their taxes. Plus, a big Peter Oborne column on how Theresa May must disown George Osborne for being agreedy bastard.

jBrereton
May 30, 2013
Grimey Drawer

Jose posted:

should have just lied non-stop imo
One way or the other imo the halfway house approach was a disaster.

spectralent
Oct 1, 2014

Me and the boys poppin' down to the shops

Seaside Loafer posted:

Did something or some somethings really bad happen in the area around 2015/16? Big factory close or hospital blow up or something?

5 years of austerity?

jabby posted:

He's already been blamed for the rise in NIC, when are you going to agree with that?

Wait, how?

Wheat Loaf posted:

The thing is that going into the referendum, the overwhelming majority of voters on both sides had already made up their minds anyway. I think that if you had held the vote on day one, it would have been more or less the same as it was on 23 June. I imagine that the number of people whose minds were changed by the campaign was negligible.

If Cameron had been prepared to negotiate us down to a kind of associate partnership rather than full membership (which is what Merkel and Hollande allegedly offered early on), that might have been a different result. I think he could have sold that to more Conservative voters. But the fact is that the Conservative voters were out of step with most Conservative MPs on the matter and the renegotiation was never going to convince them because it didn't look like it would meaningfully change anything at all.

I really don't think most people made up their mind, or if they had made up their mind they were flexible. From personal experience I'd say about half of friends and family, once the campaigning was underway, were open to suggestions made by things like the boris bus. The bizarre thing is that economics has stopped mattering to all these people now they've won, because I remember the economic pros-and-cons were a huge part of discussing it with people I'd assumed were going to vote status-quo on inertia.

Foxtrot_13
Oct 31, 2013
Ask me about my love of genocide denial!

Wheat Loaf posted:

Can't be denied that we had a pretty sweet deal in the EU and the French and the Germans at least seemed keen enough on us staying in that I reckon we could've gotten even more out of them. It's foolish to walk away from a bargain like that.

Britain doesn't have a sweet deal with the EU, we are the 2nd biggest net contributor to the EU after the Germans. Not that that is a bad thing as the only odd countries on the list of net receivers are Belgium and Luxembourg, the rest are mainly ex-Warsaw pact countries that need the sort of boost that Ireland needed to become a net contributor.

Comrade Cheggorsky
Aug 20, 2011


Cameron should have refused to accept the result of the referendum like some African dictator imo

spectralent
Oct 1, 2014

Me and the boys poppin' down to the shops

Foxtrot_13 posted:

Britain doesn't have a sweet deal with the EU, we are the 2nd biggest net contributor to the EU after the Germans. Not that that is a bad thing as the only odd countries on the list of net receivers are Belgium and Luxembourg, the rest are mainly ex-Warsaw pact countries that need the sort of boost that Ireland needed to become a net contributor.

Nah, we were an incredibly special snowflake. Contributions don't detract from all the special concessions we got out of the EU.

Which comes back to "the right wing is never happy", because those weren't good enough so long as we had to tolerate the existence of foreigners on our sceptered isle.

spectralent fucked around with this message at 14:42 on Mar 11, 2017

jBrereton
May 30, 2013
Grimey Drawer
Alternatively he shouldn't have held one because do you really need to sort out internal party discipline when you don't end up with the hung parliament most people predicted? No.

jBrereton
May 30, 2013
Grimey Drawer

spectralent posted:

Nah, we were an incredibly special snowflake. Contributions don't detract from all the special concessions we got out of the EU.
You say "we" but it was mainly concessions for the ~ruling classes~ like the complete breakdown in working times (which the EU apparently no longer gives a poo poo about anywhere, given recent history) which do not in any sense benefit the general public.

spectralent
Oct 1, 2014

Me and the boys poppin' down to the shops
I'm somewhat hopeful the insane expectations for brexit are going to backfire horribly and discredit the reactionary right to the extent the financial crash discredited neoliberalism, but on the other hand that thing about the right never being happy.

jBrereton posted:

Alternatively he shouldn't have held one because do you really need to sort out internal party discipline when you don't end up with the hung parliament most people predicted? No.

I'm still pissed he just swanned off after.

jBrereton posted:

You say "we" but it was mainly concessions for the ~ruling classes~ like the complete breakdown in working times (which the EU apparently no longer gives a poo poo about anywhere, given recent history) which do not in any sense benefit the general public.

Yeah, but when the press complained about stuff they sure as hell weren't complaining about a lack of support for marginalised communities. The joke of anti-EU coverage is that 90% of it was fake stuff or even stuff we already had.

Wheat Loaf
Feb 13, 2012

by FactsAreUseless
At the same time, I think the UK leaving will potentially be good for the EU on the whole. You can't reasonably have an organisation with 27 members and make so many special provisions for one of them (see also: the response to the issues in Greece et al.).

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal

jBrereton posted:

Alternatively he shouldn't have held one because do you really need to sort out internal party discipline when you don't end up with the hung parliament most people predicted? No.
Got him an extra 14 months of power, half of which was clouded by allegations of piggery, tho. Worth it.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010


Prominent Telegraph piece saying Corbyn's terrible opposition is the only reason the Tories decided they could raise taxes, so it's all his fault. Pretty sure I've seen something similar in the Guardian too.

Wheat Loaf
Feb 13, 2012

by FactsAreUseless
By the same token, I think it would be a bad idea to leave the ECHR because, if you look back particularly over a lot of the cases that arose from the Troubles, it's clear that the European Court of Human Rights has traditionally (not always, but nine times out of ten) been very generous to us.

Bobstar
Feb 8, 2006

KartooshFace, you are not responding efficiently!

spectralent posted:

Yeah, but when the press complained about stuff they sure as hell weren't complaining about a lack of support for marginalised communities. The joke of anti-EU coverage is that 90% of it was fake stuff or even stuff we already had.

I still love that there's a page dedicated to refuting the myths about the EU printed in British tabloids, and that while some of them are misrepresentation of actual things, a lot of them are just refuted with "this was never anything, we don't know what they're talking about".

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012

Bobstar posted:

I still love that there's a page dedicated to refuting the myths about the EU printed in British tabloids, and that while some of them are misrepresentation of actual things, a lot of them are just refuted with "this was never anything, we don't know what they're talking about".

Link?

Bobstar
Feb 8, 2006

KartooshFace, you are not responding efficiently!

http://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/euromyths-a-z-index/

See the one about Darts for an example of the answer being "er...no"

Edit: there are also amusingly many about cheese.

Bobstar fucked around with this message at 15:05 on Mar 11, 2017

jBrereton
May 30, 2013
Grimey Drawer

Wheat Loaf posted:

At the same time, I think the UK leaving will potentially be good for the EU on the whole. You can't reasonably have an organisation with 27 members and make so many special provisions for one of them (see also: the response to the issues in Greece et al.).
Every EU state has a unique thing going on. The UK used to be the one that dodged labour laws, now the French and some others are in on the act too. Environmental regs have clearly not been followed by the Germans and others. Eastern Europe can apparently do whatever the gently caress it wants wrt social policy because the EU doesn't care anymore. There is a lot of tax dodging of various kinds going on, some with the EU's blessing, like in Greece if you're rich, some without, like in Greece if you're poor. State Aid law is also apparently randomly enforced.

This myth of the UK as a special case, for both leavers and remainers, was stupid.

jBrereton
May 30, 2013
Grimey Drawer

Bobstar posted:

http://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/euromyths-a-z-index/

See the one about Darts for an example of the answer being "er...no"

Edit: there are also amusingly many about cheese.
It was an act of brazen cowardice by the EU that the Channel/La Manche was not renamed the Anglo-French Eurotrench after said reports.

Breath Ray
Nov 19, 2010

Wheat Loaf posted:

At the same time, I think the UK leaving will potentially be good for the EU on the whole. You can't reasonably have an organisation with 27 members and make so many special provisions for one of them (see also: the response to the issues in Greece et al.).

I think we've blazed a trail and the eu in its current form will be a distant memory in 10 years' Time

Wheat Loaf
Feb 13, 2012

by FactsAreUseless

Breath Ray posted:

I think we've blazed a trail and the eu in its current form will be a distant memory in 10 years' Time

I'm not sure about the first part but the second part is probably true.

spectralent
Oct 1, 2014

Me and the boys poppin' down to the shops

jBrereton posted:

Every EU state has a unique thing going on. The UK used to be the one that dodged labour laws, now the French and some others are in on the act too. Environmental regs have clearly not been followed by the Germans and others. Eastern Europe can apparently do whatever the gently caress it wants wrt social policy because the EU doesn't care anymore. There is a lot of tax dodging of various kinds going on, some with the EU's blessing, like in Greece if you're rich, some without, like in Greece if you're poor. State Aid law is also apparently randomly enforced.

This myth of the UK as a special case, for both leavers and remainers, was stupid.

The UK had an opt-out on schengen, monetary union, the charter of fundamental rights, and AFSJ. Yes, three other states were with us on some of those, but the only other state with four was Denmark. We were pretty snowflakey.

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012

Wheat Loaf posted:

I'm not sure about the first part but the second part is probably true.

We're going in an unexpected direction while on fire. It fits.

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kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

I think the rebate was pretty unique

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