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Which Thread Title shall we name this new thread?
This poll is closed.
Independence Day 2: Resturgeonce 44 21.36%
ScotPol - Unclustering this gently caress 19 9.22%
Trainspotting 2: Independence is my heroin 9 4.37%
Indyref II: Boris hosed a Dead Country 14 6.80%
ScotPol: Wings over Bullshit 8 3.88%
Independence 2: Cameron Lied, UK Died 24 11.65%
Scotpol IV: I Vow To Flee My Country 14 6.80%
ScotPol - A twice in a generation thread 17 8.25%
ScotPol - Where Everything's hosed Up and the Referendums Don't Matter 15 7.28%
ScotPol Thread: Dependence Referendum Incoming 2 0.97%
Indyref II: The Scottish Insturgeoncy 10 4.85%
ScotPol Thread: Act of European Union 5 2.43%
ScotPol - Like Game of Thrones only we wish we would all die 25 12.14%
Total: 206 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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jBrereton
May 30, 2013
Grimey Drawer

jre posted:

Does anyone think May will agree to another referendum ? I don't
I think she probably will, because we don't want a minor land war while the Brexit negotiations are underway, but definitely not until Brexit is done.

Either good or bad she can point to the UK still being a viable nation that tries its best to work in their interests, or that Scotland is in for a similar shitstorm leaving the UK followed by the ECB telling them they have to cut the budget 20% to get in, if the Spanish will even let them.

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forkboy84
Jun 13, 2012

Corgis love bread. And Puro


jre posted:

Does anyone think May will agree to another referendum ? I don't

I imagine she will in the end. Unless Brexit is so bad as to mean we might actually win independence this time.

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

CommieGIR posted:

:ironicat: Why do you think Scotland doesn't want to leave the EU?

Because leaving your most important economic trading block is a bad idea.

Why do you think its a bad idea for the UK, but a good idea for Scotland?

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

Leggsy posted:

I don't think anyone here wants Brexit to fail, doesn't mean it's not going to.

Not sure about 'here' as in this thread but I can imagine this attitude

Leggsy posted:

It would just give more time for the disaster to set in and make a Yes vote more likely.

to be common.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Pissflaps posted:

Because leaving your most important economic trading block is a bad idea.

Why do you think its a bad idea for the UK, but a good idea for Scotland?

Because Scotland is trying to stick with a larger trading group versus a small, distinct trading partner like the UK.

During the last referendum, studies showed that cutting ties with the UK would lead to a 5% reduction. That, versus the massive reduction that leaving the EU will cause.

JFairfax
Oct 23, 2008

by FactsAreUseless
and england + wales gonna be broke as gently caress when they leave the EU lol

Leggsy
Apr 30, 2008

We'll take our chances...

Pissflaps posted:

Not sure about 'here' as in this thread but I can imagine this attitude


to be common.

I don't see anything in my post suggesting that I want Brexit to fail. Just that allowing it's failure to manifest will make a Yes vote more likely.

jBrereton
May 30, 2013
Grimey Drawer

Leggsy posted:

I don't think anyone here wants Brexit to fail, doesn't mean it's not going to.

Scotland has the pick of two very uncertain futures. Either it can continue to attach itself to a UK that seems hell bent on self-destruction and is assured a Tory government until halfway through the next decade. Or it can try and remould itself as a part of the EU community. Neither choice is one that I (or Sturgeon for that matter) would have opted for but Brexit has really forced the issue.
The SNP doesn't want to remould Scotland, it wants things to continue as they are, where they are more or less the only party, and they are given shitloads of money by someone else. Doesn't matter if it's the UK government and EU, or just the EU.

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

CommieGIR posted:

Because Scotland is trying to stick with a larger trading group versus a small, distinct trading partner like the UK.

The UK is far more important market for Scotland than the EU is.




CommieGIR posted:

During the last referendum, studies showed that cutting ties with the UK would lead to a 5% reduction. That, versus the massive reduction that leaving the EU will cause.

Why will leaving the EU cause a 'massive reduction' but leaving the UK is so minimal? Does this make sense to you?

Pissflaps fucked around with this message at 14:29 on Mar 13, 2017

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

Leggsy posted:

I don't see anything in my post suggesting that I want Brexit to fail. Just that allowing it's failure to manifest will make a Yes vote more likely.

I meant specifically the attitude that the worse Brexit is, the more likely people are to vote Yes.

big scary monsters
Sep 2, 2011

-~Skullwave~-
Brexit should be delayed until after the Scottish independence question is settled. After all what's more important: the fundamental makeup of our great Union, or a bunch of vague promises we made to the frogs and krauts that we don't really intend to keep to anyway?

jre
Sep 2, 2011

To the cloud ?



jBrereton posted:

I think she probably will, because we don't want a minor land war


what

jBrereton
May 30, 2013
Grimey Drawer
Not like nationalism/unionism couldn't turn very nasty very quickly in Scotland if the SNP was just told directly to gently caress off by the UK government.

Tensions are high!

crispix
Mar 28, 2015

Grand-Maman m'a raconté
(Les éditions des amitiés franco-québécoises)

Hello, dear
This will be a big factor in the Sinners' timing of a border poll for Northern Ireland.


hi

Leggsy
Apr 30, 2008

We'll take our chances...

jBrereton posted:

The SNP doesn't want to remould Scotland, it wants things to continue as they are, where they are more or less the only party, and they are given shitloads of money by someone else. Doesn't matter if it's the UK government and EU, or just the EU.

I don't think the SNP believe that things can continue as they are anymore. Might have been the case in 2014 but Brexit has re-contextualised everything.

Pissflaps posted:

I meant specifically the attitude that the worse Brexit is, the more likely people are to vote Yes.

Considering that the blame for a Brexit failure will likely fall entirely upon the UK government. I don't see why that's an unreasonable assertion to make.

big scary monsters
Sep 2, 2011

-~Skullwave~-

jBrereton posted:

Not like nationalism/unionism couldn't turn very nasty very quickly in Scotland if the SNP was just told directly to gently caress off by the UK government.

Tensions are high!

No true Scotsman would stoop to violence over matters of petty tribalism.

jBrereton
May 30, 2013
Grimey Drawer

big scary monsters posted:

No true Scotsman would stoop to violence over matters of petty tribalism.
So you're saying the violence will happen in Edinburgh... interesting...

Leggsy posted:

I don't think the SNP believe that things can continue as they are anymore. Might have been the case in 2014 but Brexit has re-contextualised everything.
I think their hope is that it can, and that they become effectively like the ANC and are gold-plated electorally for a generation or two regardless of what they end up having to do to leave the UK and then join in the EU.

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames
https://twitter.com/Aidan___Kerr/status/841274889948545024

forkboy84
Jun 13, 2012

Corgis love bread. And Puro


Leggsy posted:

I don't think the SNP believe that things can continue as they are anymore. Might have been the case in 2014 but Brexit has re-contextualised everything.

I hope you are right but I've seen very little evidence of the SNP being particularly interested in progressive change. Especially now they are getting comfortable as the establishment party in Scotland, a position they've had for a decade now & which doesn't look like changing any time soon.

jBrereton posted:

So you're saying the violence will happen in Edinburgh... interesting...

Best post in the thread imo. Any insult towards Edinburgh is a good post.

jre
Sep 2, 2011

To the cloud ?



jBrereton posted:

Not like nationalism/unionism couldn't turn very nasty very quickly in Scotland if the SNP was just told directly to gently caress off by the UK government.
gently caress all would happen other than I'd have another two years of reading whining posts from people with 45 in their profile picture on Facebook.

quote:

Tensions are high!
Yes, as we've clearly seen from all the post referendum result violence . idiot.

Leggsy
Apr 30, 2008

We'll take our chances...

Was this being disputed?

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

Leggsy posted:

Was this being disputed?

Did I say it was?

Your defensiveness is telling.

forkboy84
Jun 13, 2012

Corgis love bread. And Puro


jre posted:

gently caress all would happen other than I'd have another two years of reading whining posts from people with 45 in their profile picture on Facebook.

I can't see a civil war happening, that's just video game fantasy nonsense, but refusing to allow another referendum would have consequences. Even if it's just strengthen the desire for independence in the long run.

Leggsy
Apr 30, 2008

We'll take our chances...
Just found it weird that you posted a tweet on something that no one was disputing with no context. I also find it weird that you find people engaging with a post as "defensive". Would you prefer if I said nothing?

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Leggsy posted:

Just found it weird that you posted a tweet on something that no one was disputing with no context. I also find it weird that you find people engaging with a post as "defensive". Would you prefer if I said nothing?

He loves strawmanning only slightly more than he hates Corbyn.

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

Leggsy posted:

Just found it weird that you posted a tweet on something that no one was disputing with no context. I also find it weird that you find people engaging with a post as "defensive". Would you prefer if I said nothing?

I like your posts so I'd rather you said something.

It's hardly out of context though: the case for another independence referendum hinges upon Scotland's EU membership and whether it can be 'forced out' by the rest of the uk. Either way, Scotland would have to apply so Scotland is leaving the eu.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Pissflaps posted:

It's hardly out of context though: the case for another independence referendum hinges upon Scotland's EU membership and whether it can be 'forced out' by the rest of the uk. Either way, Scotland would have to apply so Scotland is leaving the eu.

They were never under the impression that they wouldn't have to apply for EU membership, though.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

Venomous posted:

France, Holland etc. are going to elect strongly Eurosceptic governments in the next few months.
The balance of probability is that both countries will be electing pro-european centrists - Macron is in a pretty comfortable position in France, and Rutte's party is leading in the Netherlands.

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

CommieGIR posted:

They were never under the impression that they wouldn't have to apply for EU membership, though.

How about we finish up taking about trade before applying your insight to EU membership.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Pissflaps posted:

How about we finish up taking about trade before applying your insight to EU membership.

Sure: Trade with the UK is no reason for Scotland not to pursue EU membership. It may be a smaller amount than their overall trade with Britain, but the EU will access a wider market.

Regardless, I don't think your in any position to say that Brexit Good but Scotxit Bad.

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

CommieGIR posted:

Regardless, I don't think your in any position to say that Brexit Good but Scotxit Bad.

Good job that's not my position then. My position is that Brexit is a bad idea, and Scottish independence is also a bad idea. Voting Yes in response to Leave is compounding one error with another.

Anybody arguing that leaving a union with your largest trading partner is a disaster for the UK, but good for Scotland, is a liar.


The case for Scottish independence is not an economic one.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Pissflaps posted:

Good job that's not my position then. My position is that Brexit is a bad idea, and Scottish independence is also a bad idea. Voting Yes in response to Leave is compounding one error with another.

Anybody arguing that leaving a union with your largest trading partner is a disaster for the UK, but good for Scotland, is a liar.


The case for Scottish independence is not an economic one.

Well then maybe pushing for Scottish Independance may help scare Brexiters straight. Honestly, considering how 'Well' Brexit is going for them, something has to.

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

CommieGIR posted:

Well then maybe pushing for Scottish Independance may help scare Brexiters straight. Honestly, considering how 'Well' Brexit is going for them, something has to.

I suspect most Leavers are, at best, utterly indifferent to Scottish independence, and would consider the fiscal transfer to Scotland to be as unwelcome as the EU membership fees.

Natural 20
Sep 17, 2007

Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.
Okay, so we can admit that Scotland trades with the rest of the UK more than Europe.

But that does not mean that Scotland won't lose more trade through leaving the European union than leaving the UK.

This is because the trade barriers the EU overcomes aren't primarily tariff based, but are based around business practice and standardisation.

When the UK falls outside the EU we cease these processes and business becomes more difficult with the remainder of the EU since you have to deal with a clusterfuck of regulation to trade.

Crucially however, it is significantly easier to overcome these on a business to business basis when your primary trading partners outside the EU share legal and cultural traditions as well as general business practice.

Specifically when Slovenia joined the EU it didn't significantly lose trade with its neighbours in the Balkans, despite gaining extra trade with the EU.

It's much much more difficulty to overcome these barriers when you're operating with people who live halfway across the world and don't speak the same language.

The long and short of this is that Scotland stands to lose a much larger percentage of its trade with the EU should it leave Europe than it would lose trade with the rest of the UK if it became independent.

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

Yorkshire Tea posted:

The long and short of this is that Scotland stands to lose a much larger percentage of its trade with the EU should it leave Europe than it would lose trade with the rest of the UK if it became independent.

This doesn't add up.

If Scotland gains independence and joins the EU then it will be on the other side of this trade/customs trading barrier to the rest of the UK - which you've said will cause this 'much larger loss' in trade.

Speaking the same language won't make any difference.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

Pissflaps posted:

I suspect most Leavers are, at best, utterly indifferent to Scottish independence

Like gently caress they are. The Murdoch and Murdoch-lite press in England treat it like the nationalist bait it is. They might be indifferent to the actual idea of Scottish independence in the abstract, but the particular strain that involves the SNP is absolutely verboten.

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

CoolCab posted:

Like gently caress they are. The Murdoch and Murdoch-lite press in England treat it like the nationalist bait it is. They might be indifferent to the actual idea of Scottish independence in the abstract, but the particular strain that involves the SNP is absolutely verboten.

My experience is that ardent Brexiters are narrow minded little Englanders who want 'the jocks' to gently caress off.

Just the other side of the nationalist coin.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

Pissflaps posted:

My experience is that ardent Brexiters are narrow minded little Englanders who want 'the jocks' to gently caress off.

Just the other side of the nationalist coin.

I mean I don't disagree but to put it another way: they would love to kick Scotland out but despise the idea of Scotland leaving. In large part because the SNP stick has been used to bash Labour for so long.

Lord of the Llamas
Jul 9, 2002

EULER'VE TO SEE IT VENN SOMEONE CALLS IT THE WRONG THING AND PROVOKES MY WRATH
In my experience most Brexiters haven't given Scotland 2 seconds of thought.

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jBrereton
May 30, 2013
Grimey Drawer

CoolCab posted:

I mean I don't disagree but to put it another way: they would love to kick Scotland out but despise the idea of Scotland leaving. In large part because the SNP stick has been used to bash Labour for so long.
They would love to kick Scotland out but despise the idea of Scotland leaving because it would be a Scottish choice and not an English one. The SNP/Labour is an irrelevance in that equation.

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