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Poll: Who Should Be Leader of HM Most Loyal Opposition?
This poll is closed.
Jeremy Corbyn 95 18.63%
Dennis Skinner 53 10.39%
Angus Robertson 20 3.92%
Tim Farron 9 1.76%
Paul Ukips 7 1.37%
Robot Lenin 105 20.59%
Tony Blair 28 5.49%
Pissflaps 193 37.84%
Total: 510 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
  • Locked thread
Lord of the Llamas
Jul 9, 2002

EULER'VE TO SEE IT VENN SOMEONE CALLS IT THE WRONG THING AND PROVOKES MY WRATH

jBrereton posted:

SP is a party of the left.

So one left wing party lost one seat? Well ok then.

Pissflaps posted:

Based on those defensive reactions I don't think I need to look up what all those initials stand for to work out the majority of those centre left seats didn't go to the far left.

They all went to parties that are to the left of the Dutch Labour Party. Which clearly wasn't even centre left anymore.

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Jrbg
May 20, 2014

I am so glad we could have the UKMT's resident correspondents from the gut commenting on international politics

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe

LemonDrizzle posted:

That's a really weird reading of a result that saw the overall left vote fall and is likely to produce a bland centre-right/liberal government with a VVD-CDA-D66 (read: traditional right, soft right/christian democrat, centrist liberal) core.

I mean, you're saying that the centre-left collapsed but it's cool because one fragmentary left party went from around 3% to around 11%.

Neoliberal Third Way parties aren't actually on the left and are also the poster children for a failed ideology, hth.

OwlFancier
Aug 22, 2013

He looks like an egg that got a job as a used car salesman.

Clive Lewis on the other hand is handsome.

Lord of the Llamas
Jul 9, 2002

EULER'VE TO SEE IT VENN SOMEONE CALLS IT THE WRONG THING AND PROVOKES MY WRATH

Cerebral Bore posted:

Neoliberal Third Way parties aren't actually on the left and are also the poster children for a failed ideology, hth.

Exactly; centre-right but slower isn't centre-left in my book :shrug:

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

Lord of the Llamas posted:

They all went to parties that are to the left of the Dutch Labour Party. Which clearly wasn't even centre left anymore.

Can an expert in Dutch politics fact check this for me please I don't trust this guy.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

LemonDrizzle posted:

That's a really weird reading of a result that saw the overall left vote fall and is likely to produce a bland centre-right/liberal government with a VVD-CDA-D66 (read: traditional right, soft right/christian democrat, centrist liberal) core.

I mean, you're saying that the centre-left collapsed but it's cool because one fragmentary left party went from around 3% to around 11%.

No one is saying that on the whole it's a great result for the left. We're saying it's an especially terrible result for the bland centre-left.

I mean a left-wing environmentalist party is set to be the biggest winner of the night, with the centre-left party the biggest loser. Anyone who actually wants left wing policies looking at that result probably shouldn't extrapolate that the answer is to move towards the centre. Unless of course you're advocating not stopping until you become the far-right.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

maybe the lesson is you don't go into a coalition cabinet with the centre-right

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

see also: the collapse of Irish labour

jBrereton
May 30, 2013
Grimey Drawer

Pissflaps posted:

Can an expert in Dutch politics fact check this for me please I don't trust this guy.
I've run the numbers and SP, PvdD and Groenlinks did not win an extra 29 seats, the amount PdvA lost. In fact SP lost one.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

Cerebral Bore posted:

Neoliberal Third Way parties aren't actually on the left and are also the poster children for a failed ideology, hth.
It's not about the parties, it's about the voters. If you want your preferred ~~true left alternative~~ to exercise power, you've kind of got to persuade most of the people who vote(d) for those dastardly third way parties to come over. It appears that instead of migrating to the left, something like half of the former PvdA voters went to the right or liberal centre instead.

Private Speech
Mar 30, 2011

I HAVE EVEN MORE WORTHLESS BEANIE BABIES IN MY COLLECTION THAN I HAVE WORTHLESS POSTS IN THE BEANIE BABY THREAD YET I STILL HAVE THE TEMERITY TO CRITICIZE OTHERS' COLLECTIONS

IF YOU SEE ME TALKING ABOUT BEANIE BABIES, PLEASE TELL ME TO

EAT. SHIT.


kustomkarkommando posted:

maybe the lesson is you don't go into a coalition cabinet with the centre-right

It looks like another center-right coalition though, except maybe with different parties this time.

Or perhaps the exciting possiblity of an entirely right-wing one! As if the EU needed another one.

Coohoolin
Aug 5, 2012

Oor Coohoolie.
VVD made the biggest gains had the best result, I think, what's their story?

jBrereton
May 30, 2013
Grimey Drawer

Coohoolin posted:

VVD made the biggest gains, I think, what's their story?
VVD lost a quarter of their seats, they're the dutch Cameron-era Tories.

Private Speech
Mar 30, 2011

I HAVE EVEN MORE WORTHLESS BEANIE BABIES IN MY COLLECTION THAN I HAVE WORTHLESS POSTS IN THE BEANIE BABY THREAD YET I STILL HAVE THE TEMERITY TO CRITICIZE OTHERS' COLLECTIONS

IF YOU SEE ME TALKING ABOUT BEANIE BABIES, PLEASE TELL ME TO

EAT. SHIT.


Coohoolin posted:

VVD made the biggest gains, I think, what's their story?

You're reading the chart backwards.

Also they're the conservative party.

Lord of the Llamas
Jul 9, 2002

EULER'VE TO SEE IT VENN SOMEONE CALLS IT THE WRONG THING AND PROVOKES MY WRATH

Pissflaps posted:

Can an expert in Dutch politics fact check this for me please I don't trust this guy.

Welp according to the IPSOS exit poll..

Right wing nutters:
PVV (nobody will govern with them) +4 seats


Parties to the right:
VDD: -10 seats
CA: +6 seats
CU: +1 seat.
SGP: No change

Net: -3 seats

Parties in the "centre":
PvdA: -29 seats
D66: +7

Net: -22 Seats

Parties to the left:
SP: -1 Seat
GL: +12 seats
PvdD: +3 seats

Net: +15 Seats

I don't know what the gently caress:
50+ (pensioners party): +2 seats
Others: +5 seats



Clearly a great victory for the right and centre there.

Lord of the Llamas fucked around with this message at 23:24 on Mar 15, 2017

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

LemonDrizzle posted:

It's not about the parties, it's about the voters. If you want your preferred ~~true left alternative~~ to exercise power, you've kind of got to persuade most of the people who vote(d) for those dastardly third way parties to come over. It appears that instead of migrating to the left, something like half of the former PvdA voters went to the right or liberal centre instead.

And if you want your preferred centrist party to exercise power, you've got to stop voters abandoning them in droves for either the left or right. What's your point? That is isn't the party, it's the fact that voters don't like them?

Private Speech
Mar 30, 2011

I HAVE EVEN MORE WORTHLESS BEANIE BABIES IN MY COLLECTION THAN I HAVE WORTHLESS POSTS IN THE BEANIE BABY THREAD YET I STILL HAVE THE TEMERITY TO CRITICIZE OTHERS' COLLECTIONS

IF YOU SEE ME TALKING ABOUT BEANIE BABIES, PLEASE TELL ME TO

EAT. SHIT.


Lord of the Llamas posted:

Welp according to the IPSOS exit poll..

Right wing nutters:
PVV (nobody will govern with them) +4 seats


Parties to the right:
VDD: -10 seats
CA: +6 seats
CU: +1 seat.
SGP: No change

Net: -3 seats

Parties in the "centre":
PvdA: -29 seats
D66: +7

Net: -22 Seats

Parties to the left:
SP: -1 Seat
GL: +12 seats
PvdD: +3 seats

Net: +15 Seats

I don't know what the gently caress:
50+ (pensioners party): +2 seats
Others: +5 seats

That's one way to look at it, but then take this crosspost from the nederelection thread, from an actual dutch SP (lefties) voter:

quote:

The left-leaning parties, PvdA-GL-SP, lose 18 seats. As expected, the biggest winner is the Labour Party (PvdA), losing 29 seats, while GroenLinks gained 12 seats to their original four.

e: Also 50+ and FvD (one of your others) are borderline hard-right, so that's 4 more seats somewhere between PVV and the rest of the right-wing pack. This is just from reading the dutch election/politics thread mind you, but it seems about as full of left-wing people as here.

Private Speech fucked around with this message at 23:33 on Mar 15, 2017

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Lord of the Llamas posted:

Welp according to the IPSOS exit poll..

Right wing nutters:
PVV (nobody will govern with them) +4 seats


Parties to the right:
VDD: -10 seats
CA: +6 seats
CU: +1 seat.
SGP: No change

Net: -3 seats

Parties in the "centre":
PvdA: -29 seats
D66: +7

Net: -22 Seats

Parties to the left:
SP: -1 Seat
GL: +12 seats
PvdD: +3 seats

Net: +15 Seats

I don't know what the gently caress:
50+ (pensioners party): +2 seats
Others: +5 seats



Clearly a great victory for the right and centre there.

This is a bit of a stretch. PVV should be under right wing parties, and if you're going to call VDD 'right' you should probably call PvdA 'left'.

That would give you:

Right +1
Centre/Liberal +7
Left -15
Other +7

Of course if you break it down a bit further...

Far Right +4
Centre Right -3

Liberal +7

Centre Left -29
Far Left +14

So on the whole a bad result for the left, but the far left is doing better than before while the centre-left is doing much worse.

Lord of the Llamas
Jul 9, 2002

EULER'VE TO SEE IT VENN SOMEONE CALLS IT THE WRONG THING AND PROVOKES MY WRATH

Private Speech posted:

That's one way to look at it, but then take this crosspost from the nederelection thread, from an actual dutch SP (lefties) voter:

e: Also 50+ and FvD (one of your others) are borderline hard-right, so that's 4 more seats somewhere between PVV and the rest of the right-wing pack.

Even accepting that 50+ and some others are right wing that's somewhat cancelled out in his numbers by PvdD which are left wing.

You can hardly seriously call the PvdA losses 'left losses' when they've just spent 5 years in coalition with the Conservative party though. At best such a coalition is an appeal to centrism which is why I lumped them in with D66, who appear to be the Dutch Lib Dems.

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames
Looks like I was right not to trust that guy.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Lord of the Llamas posted:

You can hardly seriously call the PvdA losses 'left losses' when they've just spent 5 years in coalition with the Conservative party though. At best such a coalition is an appeal to centrism which is why I lumped them in with D66, who appear to be the Dutch Lib Dems.

You can certainly do that, but then you should stick VVD with centrists too. It still demonstrates the same thing - a bad night for centrism (although worse for left-centrism) but a good night for the fringes (better for the further-left).

Private Speech
Mar 30, 2011

I HAVE EVEN MORE WORTHLESS BEANIE BABIES IN MY COLLECTION THAN I HAVE WORTHLESS POSTS IN THE BEANIE BABY THREAD YET I STILL HAVE THE TEMERITY TO CRITICIZE OTHERS' COLLECTIONS

IF YOU SEE ME TALKING ABOUT BEANIE BABIES, PLEASE TELL ME TO

EAT. SHIT.


Lord of the Llamas posted:

Even accepting that 50+ and some others are right wing that's somewhat cancelled out in his numbers by PvdD which are left wing.

You can hardly seriously call the PvdA losses 'left losses' when they've just spent 5 years in coalition with the Conservative party though. At best such a coalition is an appeal to centrism which is why I lumped them in with D66, who appear to be the Dutch Lib Dems.

It makes it considerably more likely for the resulting government to be right-wing, though. There's even enough votes to shut out the left completely, albeit it would be a stretch without PVV.

Centrist coalition might be kind-of bad, right-wing government is even worse. Even the ineffectual libdems, whose senior coalition partner - unlike VDD - had nothing to fear from new elections, managed to extract some concessions.

winegums
Dec 21, 2012


jabby posted:


Of course if you break it down a bit further...

Far Right +4
Centre Right -3

Liberal +7

Centre Left -29
Far Left +14

So on the whole a bad result for the left, but the far left is doing better than before while the centre-left is doing much worse.


Why is the sum of these numbers not 0?

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

jabby posted:

What's your point?
Simple: a left-wing party or coalition that cannot command the loyalty of those voters will never govern.

winegums posted:

Why is the sum of these numbers not 0?
Minor parties such as DENK (aka the "Erdogan did nothing wrong" party) picked up a few seats.

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal

OwlFancier posted:

He looks like an egg that got a job as a used car salesman.
I thought that was Sajid Javid?

OwlFancier posted:

Don't forget owning his own cognac locker in a millionaire's club.
He did the Meow Meow too. And not in the way that Gorgeous George did.

It was legal when he did it, but it's still somehow terrible.

OwlFancier
Aug 22, 2013

winegums posted:

Why is the sum of these numbers not 0?

Indy candidates.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

winegums posted:

Why is the sum of these numbers not 0?

I left out the 'others' due to not knowing where to put them. If the 50+ are to the right, add two to the right.

Private Speech posted:

Centrist coalition might be kind-of bad, right-wing government is even worse. Even the ineffectual libdems, whose senior coalition partner - unlike VDD - had nothing to fear from new elections, managed to extract some concessions.

The problem is centre-left voters seem to abandon their parties when they are seen to co-operate with the right. See: the Lib Dems at the last election, Labour in Scotland post-indyref, and now this. Centrist coalitions might be less bad than right-wing governments, but they directly lead to right-wing governments.

Lord of the Llamas
Jul 9, 2002

EULER'VE TO SEE IT VENN SOMEONE CALLS IT THE WRONG THING AND PROVOKES MY WRATH

jabby posted:

You can certainly do that, but then you should stick VVD with centrists too. It still demonstrates the same thing - a bad night for centrism (although worse for left-centrism) but a good night for the fringes (better for the further-left).

The main lesson of the last 30 years is that "left centrism" isn't a thing because it accepts the basic tenets of neoliberalism and completely fails to deliver anything but superficial changes. Hence why "left centrism" has alienated its voters so much.

I'm happy to lump the VVD in the centre - the original point I was answering was if the parties were to the left or right of the PvdA. The question is why do you think these parties are "fringe"? Or is third way centrism or near-centrism the only acceptable politics as defined by Bill Clinton and Tony Blair?

Private Speech posted:

It makes it considerably more likely for the resulting government to be right-wing, though. There's even enough votes to shut out the left completely, albeit it would be a stretch without PVV.

Centrist coalition might be kind-of bad, right-wing government is even worse. Even the ineffectual libdems, whose senior coalition partner, unlike VDD, had nothing to fear from new elections, managed to extract some concessions.

The Lib Dem/Conservative coalition is a textbook example of how not to do a coalition. I fail to remember even one real concession the Lib Dems got from the Tories during the coalition?



jabby posted:

The problem is centre-left voters seem to abandon their parties when they are seen to co-operate with the right. See: the Lib Dems at the last election, Labour in Scotland post-indyref, and now this. Centrist coalitions might be less bad than right-wing governments, but they directly lead to right-wing governments.

That and "centrist" governments don't appear to be a balance; just right-wing but slower and more polite.

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal

Lord of the Llamas posted:

The Lib Dem/Conservative coalition is a textbook example of how not to do a coalition. I fail to remember even one real concession the Lib Dems got from the Tories during the coalition?
AV referendum :laugh:

Private Speech
Mar 30, 2011

I HAVE EVEN MORE WORTHLESS BEANIE BABIES IN MY COLLECTION THAN I HAVE WORTHLESS POSTS IN THE BEANIE BABY THREAD YET I STILL HAVE THE TEMERITY TO CRITICIZE OTHERS' COLLECTIONS

IF YOU SEE ME TALKING ABOUT BEANIE BABIES, PLEASE TELL ME TO

EAT. SHIT.


Guavanaut posted:

AV referendum :laugh:

EU Referendum? Don't think it would have happened if Tories were in coalition again.

Plus some of the immigration and refugee stuff I guess. Grammar schools too. I don't know, where's tintower when you need her.

e: I mean yeah all this got reversed. I'm not saying the lib dems were good, but they were in a really tough spot after their support collapsed. Still probably better than a Tory majority, though obviously we will never know.

Private Speech fucked around with this message at 23:58 on Mar 15, 2017

TinTower
Apr 21, 2010

You don't have to 8e a good person to 8e a hero.
Same-sex marriage.

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal
They did preventdelay some of the worst excesses of the Tories during the coalition, but I don't think they got anything that they wanted that the Tories didn't other than the AV referendum and the Royal commission on drugs that was flatly ignored.

Lord of the Llamas
Jul 9, 2002

EULER'VE TO SEE IT VENN SOMEONE CALLS IT THE WRONG THING AND PROVOKES MY WRATH
What was the manifesto agreement the Tories broke in the same magnitude as the tuition fees, for example?????

Private Speech
Mar 30, 2011

I HAVE EVEN MORE WORTHLESS BEANIE BABIES IN MY COLLECTION THAN I HAVE WORTHLESS POSTS IN THE BEANIE BABY THREAD YET I STILL HAVE THE TEMERITY TO CRITICIZE OTHERS' COLLECTIONS

IF YOU SEE ME TALKING ABOUT BEANIE BABIES, PLEASE TELL ME TO

EAT. SHIT.


Lord of the Llamas posted:

What was the manifesto agreement the Tories broke in the same magnitude as the tuition fees, for example?????

Yeah but that was done willingly, according to what people said afterwards.

I'm not saying it wasn't loving stupid, but they (the LD leadership around Clegg) probably didn't think it was a huge commitment. And either way they were the junior partner and later on pretty much on life support, of course the Tories would get more.

OwlFancier
Aug 22, 2013

Lord of the Llamas posted:

What was the manifesto agreement the Tories broke in the same magnitude as the tuition fees, for example?????

Wasn't that voluntary on Clegg's part?

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Aaaand Trump's new travel ban has been blocked nationwide by a judge in Hawaii, hours before it was due to take effect.

I think I can feel the rage from here.

Lord of the Llamas
Jul 9, 2002

EULER'VE TO SEE IT VENN SOMEONE CALLS IT THE WRONG THING AND PROVOKES MY WRATH
So can anyone give me a single loving example where a "centre" or "centre-left" party being in coalition with a right of centre party hasn't ended in loving disaster?

OwlFancier posted:

Wasn't that voluntary on Clegg's part?


So what? He was Mr. Centrism in action.

Private Speech
Mar 30, 2011

I HAVE EVEN MORE WORTHLESS BEANIE BABIES IN MY COLLECTION THAN I HAVE WORTHLESS POSTS IN THE BEANIE BABY THREAD YET I STILL HAVE THE TEMERITY TO CRITICIZE OTHERS' COLLECTIONS

IF YOU SEE ME TALKING ABOUT BEANIE BABIES, PLEASE TELL ME TO

EAT. SHIT.


jabby posted:

Aaaand Trump's new travel ban has been blocked nationwide by a judge in Hawaii, hours before it was due to take effect.

I think I can feel the rage from here.

Thank god for parliamentary sovereignty that we don't have to deal with such undemocratic barbarism in the UK.

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jBrereton
May 30, 2013
Grimey Drawer

Lord of the Llamas posted:

So can anyone give me a single loving example where a "centre" or "centre-left" party being in coalition with a right of centre party hasn't ended in loving disaster?
Does the last ten years in Germany count

  • Locked thread