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Don Dongington
Sep 27, 2005

#ideasboom
College Slice

I... what?

Based on how poorly most of the pollsters (in particular, Newspoll) forecast the most recent election (WA), do you think perhaps this totally unreasonable bounce in Liberal popularity may be a little uh...


Horseshit?

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Zenithe
Feb 25, 2013

Ask not to whom the Anidavatar belongs; it belongs to thee.
This loving country, goddamn.

norp
Jan 20, 2004

TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP

let's invade New Zealand, they have oil
Assuming it's within margin of error?
Also it'll be snowy-river-bounce. If they have another poo poo week in the media it will resume its fall.

Starshark
Dec 22, 2005
Doctor Rope

norp posted:

Assuming it's within margin of error?
Also it'll be snowy-river-bounce. If they have another poo poo week in the media it will resume its fall.

Yeah, I think it's this. Probably just hearing 'Snowy river' makes people horny. STRAYA

norp
Jan 20, 2004

TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP

let's invade New Zealand, they have oil
Just imagine how bad this week would have been for them without the snowy river announcement - wow

Don Dongington
Sep 27, 2005

#ideasboom
College Slice
Just imagine if the opposition leader wasn't a sack of White Wings low-sugar cake mix,

Tokamak
Dec 22, 2004

Reading tea leaves.

ewe2
Jul 1, 2009

Schlesische posted:

Weren't the WALibs hosed from the get go?
Wonderful combination of massive shortfalls in revenue combined with being the party that led to that despite having also presided over what should have been massive windfalls from mining should probably see you experience the landslide every time.

Yeah they're totally to blame for their own predicament. They weren't simply punished for being there when the money wagon waltzed away, they were punished for serially pretending to come up with ideas that would diversify the WA economy that were handouts to mates and were incredibly obvious about it.

But they might have maintained some power even in the upper house if they hadn't been scared of booting out the most visible symbol of their failure. They could have said mea culpa, here's something we can do, give us the chance to implement it but they just went with the flow.

TheMightyHandful posted:

Aren't you better to dump him after when you are going to lose anyway?

They could foresee big losses ahead of time, and there were people eager to take over the job and do it tough, but no, they sat there and waited for the semi to run them over. They were probably never going to win, but they had the option to save something from it, but they couldn't act. That's a party organisation failure, not just an election loss.

The Feds, when this happens, used to put in a gumby like Downer to take the pain. Now they're terrified of what that tells the electorate because they spent 30 years pretending the PM was a president instead of a representative.

This time around the WA party seems to have been more keen to let Barnett take all the blame forgetting that they too have seats to lose...oh dear.

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
Probation
Can't post for 23 hours!
Yeah the poll was taken over thursday-sunday. Perhaps turnbull timed the snowy river announcement for it?

CATTASTIC
Mar 31, 2010

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Talk about a long bow

Shunkymonky
Sep 10, 2006
'sup
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/brace-for-the-selloff-property-market-at-a-tipping-point/news-story/

quote:

Brace for the sell-off: property market at a tipping point

It has begun. The much maligned prediction of a sell-off in property prices is beginning to come true.

Of course, you wouldn’t know it looking at the headline-grabbing median prices and the ridiculous prices being paid for shoe boxes in Sydney — “Hey,” says the buyer, “what’s an extra million when the additional interest is $45,000 a year.”

And that is the point. We know the boom in property prices has little to do with anything other than historic low interest rates, which appears to have made paying an extra million at auction as insignificant as an impulse purchase of a bar of chocolate at the supermarket checkout.

I have now heard every possible explanation for surging house prices and the only one that matters is interest rates being lower than at any time since Captain Cook.

Surging house prices have nothing to do with a shortage of land. Hong Kong has less land and a much higher density of people per square kilometre and that has not prevented falling property ­prices. Moreover, surging dividend incomes, retiring baby boomers and Chinese fondness for our climate and air quality are all “weight-of-money” arguments that have never prevented falling prices.

Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane property buyers are merely pawns in a global game of Central Bank Chess whose end has ­arrived.

As central bank bond buying, also known as quantitative easing, pushed government bond yields lower, investors were forced to seek higher returns elsewhere. Corporate bonds were next to surge, then junk bonds, equity and property. And record prices for art, low digit numberplates and collectable cars came soon after.

But keep in mind, few investors have any experience navigating a sustained secular increase in ­interest rates and inflation and even less would know anything about “credit events”, which long-duration assets are always susceptible to.

Property income yields are at historic lows and yet property buyers couldn’t be more enthusiastic. Buyers who tell me that they don’t mind buying on a yield of 2.5 per cent because they will get a capital gain need to understand that the capital gain will only come when a buyer is willing to accept an even lower yield.

And yield’s cannot fall much further when your oversupplied property is vacant and your yield is zero — as many leveraged Brisbane apartment owners are about to discover.

The end of every bubble is marked by the appearance of the greater fool principle: betting a bigger fool will come along and ­accept an even worse return. It’s speculation, pure and simple.

Nobody will escape

Am I going too far? Think of this: record levels of household debt to GDP, household debt to income and record levels of credit card debt means that when bond interest rates rise — and they’ve ­already started rising — investors will be able to least afford the additional costs thanks to having previously paid and borrowed too much.

Within five kilometres of Brisbane’s CBD, 5500 apartments were completed and available to be moved into by owners or tenants in the nine months to September last year.

During the same period, vac­ancy rates rose from 2.7 per cent to 4.7 per cent — a near doubling — 5km-15km from the CBD. Landlords who purchased a flat that has no tenant need to deeply discount their rent or accept zero income. And that puts financial stress on the landlord even if they haven’t lost their job.

Most worryingly, another 13,300 new apartments will be completed within 5km of the CBD before September this year.

Meanwhile, some financial planners have reported to me being cold-called by developers with offers of 7 per cent commissions to market properties to their clients. This inducement comes on top of the free holidays, free cars and free frequent flyer points being offered as incentives to property buyers.

As supply increases, (see graph) these discounts will become more aggressive, ensuring lower prices. Reports of some apartments being revalued 30 per cent lower than 18 months ago will not help.

Financial stress occurs when AMP and CBA, Westpac and others, tighten lending restrictions on particular types of loans or blacklist your suburb, thereby pulling the rug out for any new buyer of your desperate-to-sell property.

Many believe their suburb will be immune. Many believe the falls won’t impact houses and will be quarantined to apartments. Many believe their property won’t be affected because it has some special quality. Such beliefs are nothing more than head-in-the-sand wishful thinking.

My bankers have told me all of their smartest and most successful property investors have sold up or are getting out, and they cannot lend them a cent — they won’t take it.

Drop a pebble in a pond and the ripples will eventually impact the entire pond and everything in it.

Why should Tweed Heads and Bowral prices be nine or 10 times incomes when thousands of similarly-sized towns around the world — and the same distance from capital cities — can be purchased at half the multiple? It doesn’t make sense and it isn’t sustainable. And neither are low interest rates. Hold on tight.

Roger Montgomery is founder and chief investment officer of the Montgomery Fund. https://www.montinvest.com

I don't know if I'm correct to be shocked that The Australian published a piece so gleefully declaring the bubble is real and ready to pop. But it's definitely the first I've read that seems to announce the tide has turned and itshappening.gif

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
Probation
Can't post for 23 hours!

Shunkymonky posted:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/brace-for-the-selloff-property-market-at-a-tipping-point/news-story/


I don't know if I'm correct to be shocked that The Australian published a piece so gleefully declaring the bubble is real and ready to pop. But it's definitely the first I've read that seems to announce the tide has turned and itshappening.gif

Roger your article is just plain wrong. As the owner of 3 investment properties I have seen their values steadily rise and the will continue to do so. The factors to cause a fall, principally rising unemployment, are simply NOT THERE.



You are just unhappy because you have missed out on the greatest boom of the century whilst I an some other astute investors have cleaned up.

Solemn Sloth
Jul 11, 2015

Baby you can shout at me,
But you can't need my eyes.

I would blow Dane Cook posted:

Roger your article is just plain wrong. As the owner of 3 investment properties I have seen their values steadily rise and the will continue to do so. The factors to cause a fall, principally rising unemployment, are simply NOT THERE.



You are just unhappy because you have missed out on the greatest boom of the century whilst I an some other astute investors have cleaned up.

I want to frame that comment, it's perfect.

Meat Miracle
Oct 24, 2010
All markets are governed by growthand the Howard/Costello government was pure economic growth; during the Howard/Costello government an amount of that infinite pure growth was turned into every investment in the ratio of it's place on the ASX index - for every dollar of iron ore created twice as much coal was created and so on. Most all this was squandered by layba waste; but because housing is safe and unreactive you can trace this down to housing that exists now and will always exist. Most of the housing in the universe is from other generations and was created in an exploding star; there's housing that exists that came fromt he first generation of stars and you can trace the degree of all these back to the Howard/Costello government. This isn't contraversial; once you accept the Howard/Costello government happened this is one thing that follows from it the same way as the need to secure the existence of our people and a future for white children follows from it.

ewe2
Jul 1, 2009

I like the part about how the banks forced investors to stop buying old cars and buy properties, they were PAWNS. This sounds like a tryout for when politicians get burnt by the correction. Gosh wouldn't an inquiry into banks be a good idea then?

edit: Richard Di Natale drops into Australian Politics Live podcast, and is remarkably frank about the state of politics including Greens factionalism. He doesn't have all the answers so don't expect them.

ewe2 fucked around with this message at 17:44 on Mar 19, 2017

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
Probation
Can't post for 23 hours!
https://twitter.com/LucyXIV/status/841750535107616768

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

That Australian article is a dead link for me...

I think it's very telling that while "housing is unaffordable for many Australians" has become an accepted part of the mainstream discourse (it wasn't just a few short years ago) and so has "we need to do something about that," politicians can't quite bring themselves to voice the squealing outrage that would come from the logical next step: "house prices need to come down."

edit - reading that article more closely; are low interest rates really the cause of the bubble? Like, this in particular:

quote:

We know the boom in property prices has little to do with anything other than historic low interest rates, which appears to have made paying an extra million at auction as insignificant as an impulse purchase of a bar of chocolate at the supermarket checkout.

Like, who the gently caress only cares about interest? I'm no economist but surely it has far more to do with the obstinate cultural mindset that house prices always go up and are always a safe investment, which can only be a self-fulfilling prophecy for so long.

This was interesting too:

http://www.3aw.com.au/news/confidence-in-housing-market-hits-a-new-low-20170316-gv028h.html

quote:

Confidence in the housing market is now at its lowest level on record.

The number of Australians who believe property investment is the safest place to put their money has fallen to a 40 year low of 11.6 per cent.

The Age newspaper reports the figure, which comes from a consumer confidence survey that's been running since the 1970s, has fallen from 28 per cent in 2015.

freebooter fucked around with this message at 22:46 on Mar 19, 2017

Anidav
Feb 25, 2010

ahhh fuck its the rats again

This Newspoll might have a bunch of questions about energy security in it. Which really would give the Liberals the edge because most people are still in the "Solar isn't there yet" mentality.

Other
Jul 10, 2007

Post it easy!

freebooter posted:

That Australian article is a dead link for me...

I think it's very telling that while "housing is unaffordable for many Australians" has become an accepted part of the mainstream discourse (it wasn't just a few short years ago) and so has "we need to do something about that," politicians can't quite bring themselves to voice the squealing outrage that would come from the logical next step: "house prices need to come down."

edit - reading that article more closely; are low interest rates really the cause of the bubble? Like, this in particular:


Like, who the gently caress only cares about interest? I'm no economist but surely it has far more to do with the obstinate cultural mindset that house prices always go up and are always a safe investment, which can only be a self-fulfilling prophecy for so long.

This was interesting too:

http://www.3aw.com.au/news/confidence-in-housing-market-hits-a-new-low-20170316-gv028h.html
Yeah Interest isn't the main driver of recent price increases, remember only a few years ago our then higher interest rates made investing in the AUD much more attractive lifting the exchange to the point that it was at parity or even valued over the USD and yet house prices were still high and growing by the week. I can certainly accept the now lower rates as an intensifier that's accelerated house price growth and only made the market more absurd but as the sole cause it's a load of bull.

JBP
Feb 16, 2017

You've got to know, to understand,
Baby, take me by my hand,
I'll lead you to the promised land.
I only hope that the new Snowy project will mean a resurgence in dinky di Australian cinema.

BBJoey
Oct 31, 2012

after three years brandis released his diaries

you'll be shocked to discover he was lying about consulting with indigenous legal aid groups before cutting their funding

aejix
Sep 18, 2007

It's about finding that next group of core players we can win with in the next 6, 8, 10 years. Let's face it, it's hard for 20-, 21-, 22-year-olds to lead an NHL team. Look at the playoffs.

That quote is from fucking 2018. Fuck you Jim
Pillbug
I am shocked, shocked I tell you, that George's parliamentary [redacted] proves that he is a [redacted] piece of [redacted] who probably has commissioned multiple portraits of himself [redacted]ing [redacted] in the [redacted] while giving [redacted] a proper [redacted] with a [redacted] in his [redacted].

Ten Becquerels
Apr 17, 2012

My Little Tony: Leadership is Magic
“Processing Mr Dreyfus’s request was a long and exhaustive task and had to be done on top of the attorney’s ministerial and other responsibilities,” so of course it took 3 years! Think of all that exhausting work George had to do to fulfill his responsibilities as a minister!

The department line seems to be that no record of any meetings doesn't mean that the meetings didn't happen, because if the meetings were spontaneous they wouldn't be entered in the diary. This sounds like a very reasonable reasonable explanation that I definitely believe. It also still admits that he had no plans to meet with legal aid groups, and if he ever did it was probably a result of them chasing him down.

JBP
Feb 16, 2017

You've got to know, to understand,
Baby, take me by my hand,
I'll lead you to the promised land.
Is there any rational reason the LNP got a bump in polls outside of Snowy river? I've felt like they were losing momentum and looking awful lately. What have I missed if anything?

open24hours
Jan 7, 2001

Ten Becquerels posted:

“Processing Mr Dreyfus’s request was a long and exhaustive task and had to be done on top of the attorney’s ministerial and other responsibilities,” so of course it took 3 years! Think of all that exhausting work George had to do to fulfill his responsibilities as a minister!

The department line seems to be that no record of any meetings doesn't mean that the meetings didn't happen, because if the meetings were spontaneous they wouldn't be entered in the diary. This sounds like a very reasonable reasonable explanation that I definitely believe. It also still admits that he had no plans to meet with legal aid groups, and if he ever did it was probably a result of them chasing him down.

This seems like a really dumb thing to say, as it compels the reader to ask why a minister should be allowed to have an undocumented meeting to discuss government business?

Solemn Sloth
Jul 11, 2015

Baby you can shout at me,
But you can't need my eyes.

open24hours posted:

This seems like a really dumb thing to say, as it compels the reader to ask why a minister should be allowed to have an undocumented meeting to discuss government business?

Yeah, I would have thought it would be a legal requirement to keep track of all
meetings conducted as a minister, and if they don't qualify as a meeting conducted in his guise as minister they sure as gently caress don't count for consulting with community groups.

Freudian Slip
Mar 10, 2007

"I'm an archivist. I'm archiving."

JBP posted:

Is there any rational reason the LNP got a bump in polls outside of Snowy river? I've felt like they were losing momentum and looking awful lately. What have I missed if anything?

Was the poll taken after the thrashing in WA? That may have cathartic enough for some people to come back. Also some people want the opposite of what they have at state level.

Just spit balling here

adamantium|wang
Sep 14, 2003

Missing you
https://twitter.com/SenatorMRoberts/status/843607859602444288

:psyboom:

open24hours
Jan 7, 2001

About time someone prosecuted them.

Anidav
Feb 25, 2010

ahhh fuck its the rats again

JBP posted:

Is there any rational reason the LNP got a bump in polls outside of Snowy river? I've felt like they were losing momentum and looking awful lately. What have I missed if anything?

Union Lady saying breaking the law is okay has flipped alot of older people back to the LNP.

You know the complicated SWING BOOMERS

Cartoon
Jun 20, 2008

poop

freebooter posted:

Like, who the gently caress only cares about interest? I'm no economist but surely it has far more to do with the obstinate cultural mindset that house prices always go up and are always a safe investment, which can only be a self-fulfilling prophecy for so long.
It would be naive to suggest low interest rates were the only reason for the protracted expansion of the bubble. However the fact that lower interest rates means more money is available to the borrower also means there is pressure on prices to rise. One of the main objections to home owner grants is that final purchase price just goes up by that amount because what can be afforded is the ultimate measure of price.

JBP posted:

Is there any rational reason the LNP got a bump in polls outside of Snowy river? I've felt like they were losing momentum and looking awful lately. What have I missed if anything?

TheMightyHandful posted:

Aren't you better to dump him after when you are going to lose anyway?
This is a long bow indeed but perhaps the fourth estate have also concluded that this government is doomed. Strapping their hated kick toy Trampsballs to the plummeting biplane would be an appropriate act of spite.

I have been hoping NTATA would actually snatch the glittering prize he has white anted so long for (ala K. Rudd) but it seems the fates won't grant me that simple pleasure.

Anidav
Feb 25, 2010

ahhh fuck its the rats again
Doug Stubbs and his wife Sue, who live at Collingwood Park in southwest Brisbane, are doing it hard, because Centrelink has refused to grant them disability and the carers allowance.

An internal review stuck with the original decision and now the case is going before the Administrative Appeals Tribunal. But it is dragging out and the bills, including medical expenses, still must be paid.

Supporters are raising money to help them get by. The 55-year old former transport contractor has undergone a series of surgical and other procedures that have made him unable to work and he needs care at home. His disability is the result of a horrific motorcycle accident that resulted in multiple fractures, an acquired brain injury and a right arm amputation.

Despite this, he did not generate enough points on the Centrelink test to qualify for payment.

A Centrelink Officer wrote, “While I accept that your right, dominant hand is non-functional as a result of the amputation, there is no objective medical evidence to indicate that there is a severe functional impact on activities like turning the pages of a book, using a pen or pencil or using a keyboard or carrying most objects with your functional arm.’’

According to the rules, he can work 15 hours a week. Regardless of what might be suggested by a piece of paper, rea;life reality is that Doug cannot work. Being able-bodied would be a challenge enough at his age. With disabilities like his and younger, fit alternatives, employers are not going to take him on.

Doug’s case is important, because it will be a test for many others finding themselves in the same boat. The message that needs to get through to Centrelink and the department heads is that people are have real life challenges, including problems overlooked, by an arbitrary and restrictive test that at best, only provides a rudimentary assessment. A thorough medical assessment, supported by competent medical evidence is needed. This is not what happens today. Those making the decisions must be reminded that they dealing with human beings, not case numbers.



FIT TO WORK!

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
Probation
Can't post for 23 hours!

http://archive.sclqld.org.au/qjudgment/2017/QDC17-017.pdf

Apparently the Council told the annoying street preachers in the Queen st Mall to piss of.

Anidav
Feb 25, 2010

ahhh fuck its the rats again

I would blow Dane Cook posted:

http://archive.sclqld.org.au/qjudgment/2017/QDC17-017.pdf

Apparently the Council told the annoying street preachers in the Queen st Mall to piss of.

They should tell the Mormons and the Jehovah s Witnesses to gently caress off too.

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
Probation
Can't post for 23 hours!

Anidav posted:

They should tell the Mormons and the Jehovah s Witnesses to gently caress off too.

The Jehovah's Witnesses just stand there behind their little cart, and the Mormons only bother Chinese people.

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
Probation
Can't post for 23 hours!

Anidav posted:

Doug Stubbs and his wife Sue, who live at Collingwood Park in southwest Brisbane, are doing it hard, because Centrelink has refused to grant them disability and the carers allowance.

An internal review stuck with the original decision and now the case is going before the Administrative Appeals Tribunal. But it is dragging out and the bills, including medical expenses, still must be paid.

Supporters are raising money to help them get by. The 55-year old former transport contractor has undergone a series of surgical and other procedures that have made him unable to work and he needs care at home. His disability is the result of a horrific motorcycle accident that resulted in multiple fractures, an acquired brain injury and a right arm amputation.

Despite this, he did not generate enough points on the Centrelink test to qualify for payment.

A Centrelink Officer wrote, “While I accept that your right, dominant hand is non-functional as a result of the amputation, there is no objective medical evidence to indicate that there is a severe functional impact on activities like turning the pages of a book, using a pen or pencil or using a keyboard or carrying most objects with your functional arm.’’

According to the rules, he can work 15 hours a week. Regardless of what might be suggested by a piece of paper, rea;life reality is that Doug cannot work. Being able-bodied would be a challenge enough at his age. With disabilities like his and younger, fit alternatives, employers are not going to take him on.

Doug’s case is important, because it will be a test for many others finding themselves in the same boat. The message that needs to get through to Centrelink and the department heads is that people are have real life challenges, including problems overlooked, by an arbitrary and restrictive test that at best, only provides a rudimentary assessment. A thorough medical assessment, supported by competent medical evidence is needed. This is not what happens today. Those making the decisions must be reminded that they dealing with human beings, not case numbers.



FIT TO WORK!

He has a bright future as an Evil Genius.

cohsae
Jun 19, 2015

Dammit I would blow Dane Cook you stole my joke.

I mean poo poo the claw arm already has a skull on it.

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
Probation
Can't post for 23 hours!
Maybe we can make a gofundme to build a Volcano Lair for him.

Lid
Feb 18, 2005

And the mercy seat is awaiting,
And I think my head is burning,
And in a way I'm yearning,
To be done with all this measuring of proof.
An eye for an eye
And a tooth for a tooth,
And anyway I told the truth,
And I'm not afraid to die.

quote:

A Supreme Court judge has blasted former NSW Labor MP Eddie Obeid and his sons for bringing an "unreasonable" and "irresponsible" lawsuit against the corruption watchdog and ordered the family to pay a multimillion-dollar legal bill.

In a scathing judgment delivered on Monday, Justice David Hammerschlag said there was "every reason why" Obeid and his sons Moses, Paul and Eddie jnr should pay the costs of every person sued in the case.

These included the costs of former Independent Commission Against Corruption chief David Ipp, QC, against whom the Obeids had made baseless allegations of misconduct that Justice Hammerschlag described as "of the gravest kind".

Legal sources said the legal bill would easily exceed $2 million, on top of the Obeids' own costs.

Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy.

Hammerschlag's nickname in lawyer circles is The Hammer. He does not gently caress around.

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JBP
Feb 16, 2017

You've got to know, to understand,
Baby, take me by my hand,
I'll lead you to the promised land.

Throw the book at them, Mal.

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