Breath Ray posted:

I think it would be difficult to accurately measure the current rate of populist thinking, whatever that is, and even harder to prove that what largely fuels it right now is the media.

Darth Walrus posted:

Labour is in a peculiar situation right now. It's rich as hell, and also broke as hell. See, it comes down to the division between national and local. The central party is in a better situation than it's been in in years, which means that it's a net benefit rather than a net drain for the local parties. The problem is that there's a lot of local parties, and local membership fees plus central party stipends only make up a small part of their finances. The rest is from fundraising campaigns, which are the fastest way to regenerate your funds after a period of heavy expenditure. Local parties have been through a period of extremely heavy expenditure. The general election, first leadership campaign, local government election campaign, and EU referendum campaign completely exhausted their coffers - for instance, it was a considerable surprise that the Labour candidate for Avon and Somerset PCC managed as close a second place as he did, because thanks to the campaigns for the referendum and the other local government posts, he ran with literally zero campaign budget. The plan was to go back into some heavy-duty fundraising once the dust settled from Brexit, and start reaching out to the new arrivals from the leadership election, getting them used to the attending meetings and learning the inner workings of the party.

Then the morons in the PLP launched their coup and - this is the important bit - shut down all CLP activity for the next three months, paralysing them as their chances to secure money and members trickled away into the ether. It was a tremendous blow, and one they're still trying to recover from. It also means that if a snap election happens, Labour will be at an enormous financial and organisational disadvantage - you need tens of thousands of pounds to run a serious general election campaign in your constituency, and our CLP's budget is barely over a thousand, and it's still only just starting to spin up its member induction campaign.

Source: a chat with the CLP treasurer at our last local meeting. Seriously, truly attending some. The local officers have had it up to here with the PLP's poo poo.

Jakabite posted:

Really? The numerous scholars on the issue don't agree with you, somethingawfulforums user Breath Ray.

https://scholar.google.co.uk/scholar?as_ylo=2016&q=rise+right+wing+populism+Europe&hl=en&as_sdt=0,5

Gonzo McFee posted:

Nick Cohen is an Islamophobic right wing poo poo.

Lunar Suite posted:

ToK lessons were awesome. We learned all about logical fallacies, getting good sources and the How and Why of knowing.
Is there any point in converting the majority of my savings into euros before next Wednesday? I've put a bit outside the country already, but it doesn't look like the exchange rate could crater any worse, so...

jabby posted:

Corbyn really needs a chance to set out a radical manifesto, and I do think it will gain more traction than the polls at the moment suggest.

Pissflaps posted:

This is the wishful thinking strategy.

Darth Walrus posted:

Quoting myself on how apocalyptic a snap GE would be for Labour:

jabby posted:

PMs spokesperson strongly ruled out early election again today.

Breath Ray posted:

Put down those goalposts! You said the rise in populist thinking, not in populism. And you said it was largely fuelled by the media. You can't prove that and you never will.

Jakabite posted:

How do you even go about changing money into euros/dollars outside of using the holiday exchange people, who are obviously not going be giving you a good price?

schadenfraud posted:

Post Office

Oberleutnant posted:

Tom Watson attacks Momentum-Unite Labour 'plot'
The unions are plotting to destroy the party of labour!

Oberleutnant posted:

Tom Watson attacks Momentum-Unite Labour 'plot'
The unions are plotting to destroy the party of labour!

Baron Corbyn posted:

Jakabite posted:

How do you even go about changing money into euros/dollars outside of using the holiday exchange people, who are obviously not going be giving you a good price?

jabby posted:

PMs spokesperson strongly ruled out early election again today.

Personally I think a snap GE would certainly change the landscape, but not as radically as some people assume/hope. Labour would likely lose a lot of seats, the Tories would have a stronger majority, and they'd have an easier time getting legislation through.

Having said that, I think Labour needs a general election to put its new policies to the public. Whether that happens in 2020 or earlier doesn't matter much, but the majority of the public still seem to feel Labour hasn't really changed apart from electing someone the press says is bad. Corbyn really needs a chance to set out a radical manifesto, and I do think it will gain more traction than the polls at the moment suggest.

Jakabite posted:

Is that really the best way? I assumed there'd be some sort of arcane online platform that was optimal for this sort of thing.

HJB posted:

Article 50 to be triggered on the 29th.

Pissflaps posted:

I can imagine it no bother.

Though what would actually happen is a 100 seat Tory majority.

spectralent posted:

The best bit is if you listen to the smoking-gun evidence, which was just on the news. Momentum... feels that some of the CLP's values aren't in line with what they believe and wants to lower the nomination threshold, and apparently said so in a public talk. So, uh, expect the NKVD at the door any day, I guess?

Lord of the Llamas posted:

How though? The biggest drop in Labour support relative to 2015 has occurred in London and that's remain voters flirting with going back to the Lib Dems. There aren't enough Labour MPs in the south or midlands where the Tories have really gained support because of Brexit to produce that kind of a swing.

Pissflaps posted:

Copeland isn't in London.

Cerv posted:

Lansman stating that Momentum will continue to ignore Momentum's own rulebook forbidding members of rival political parties to Labour from being members is pretty damning or the organisation.

you've ignored that part

quote:

Friends of Mr Watson say they believe there is an orchestrated attempt by Momentum and Unite to take control of the machinery of the Labour Party.

They claim there are plans to introduce mandatory reselection of MPs, remove critical councillors, take over regional Labpur parties, change the leadership rules, and ignore restrictions on the activities of non Labour Party members.

One said the situation was more serious than the 1980s because now Labour was facing a threat from within its own organisation rather than an external group like Militant.

It was claimed that despite denials by Unite an assurance had been given by Mr McLuskey's allies that he was willing to fund Momentum.

Lord of the Llamas posted:

And as I pointed out in my previous post the Labour seats in Cumbria went against the Labour vote trend in England in 2015 so it's an exception rather than a pattern.

Jakabite posted:

How do you even go about changing money into euros/dollars outside of using the holiday exchange people, who are obviously not going be giving you a good price?


Jesus Christ, what's the difference?

kustomkarkommando posted:

Isn't there a whole rival Grassroots Momentum thing now

Pissflaps posted:

It's not credible to suggest there could be a 4% swing from labour to the Tories on the 2015 result and somebody there isn't a Tory majority.

Pissflaps posted:

It's not credible to suggest there could be a 4% swing from labour to the Tories on the 2015 result and somebody there isn't a Tory majority.

Lord of the Llamas posted:

I see you're struggling to understand the concept of non-uniform swings.

kustomkarkommando posted:

I think its a faction within a faction, its the folks that opposed glasmans changes to the groups constitution. They had their own conference and elected their own steering committee and everything

Pissflaps posted:

Sure I understand the concept.

Doesn't mean I'm going to join you in pretending that there's any realistic chance of your scenario actually playing out.

It's not going to happen.