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I wonder how many people wanted to vote No, but thought the HFC would sink things on their own and give them cover, and now realize they might need to step up and publicly oppose Trump.
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Mar 24, 2017 14:56
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https://twitter.com/scottwongDC/status/845274958146228224 I think it's fair to say that anyone saying they are "undecided" today means they're a "no" if the bill is going to fail but they'll be a "yes" if their vote is needed. edit: or they get a sufficient bribe evilweasel fucked around with this message at 15:15 on Mar 24, 2017 |
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Mar 24, 2017 15:06
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I think this is a result of constituent pressure. He's been asking for feedback on his facebook page and the comments are like 100 to none against the bill.
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Mar 24, 2017 15:21
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:I think this is a result of constituent pressure. He's been asking for feedback on his facebook page and the comments are like 100 to none against the bill. I'm genuinely wondering if there's a district out there where this isn't the case. It's polling at 17% overall and every report I see about constituent call tallies have absurd ratios against this thing. This piece of poo poo bill has absolutely no grassroots support. This vote wouldn't be remotely close if we weren't living in an effective oligarchy.
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Mar 24, 2017 15:44
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The schedule: https://twitter.com/davecatanese/status/845266698806661121
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Mar 24, 2017 15:44
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Rhesus Pieces posted:I'm genuinely wondering if there's a district out there where this isn't the case. It's polling at 17% overall and every report I see about constituent call tallies have absurd ratios against this thing. It's not an oligarchy thing. It's more a FPTP thing where everything in politics is a zero-sum game since there's only two parties, and the Republicans have trapped themselves with seven years of baldfaced lies, and a gerrymandering thing where many representatives do not face competitive general elections. Passing this bill is a terrible idea. Admitting they were lying for seven years about being able to "replace" is also a terrible idea. Passing a good bill can't be done with their ideologies and majorities. There are simply no good options for Republicans at this point.
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Mar 24, 2017 15:46
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volts5000 posted:So my mom thinks this is some wonderful selling point, but she can do this already?! literally part of Obamacare
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Mar 24, 2017 15:51
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I feel relatively confident Meadows is folding, along with part of the HFC: https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/845286536270827520 I am not sure, however, if that gets them there given the moderate defections and that I think a minimum of 8-10 HFC members are hard nos, no matter what.
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Mar 24, 2017 15:52
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Doesn't help that 75% of GOP reps have never been in the driver's seat before (house majority, GOP president) and many of them were elected running on a campaign platform of "I am the most intransigent person you will ever meet, vote for me!" And then they decide to re-learn how to actually do politics on the most divisive issue they could have chosen with a bill that has 17% support. And getting it through the House was supposed to be the easy part. The Senate had doubts about the initial version of the bill, much less the one being voted on today.
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Mar 24, 2017 15:52
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evilweasel posted:I feel relatively confident Meadows is folding, along with part of the HFC: Interesting. I wonder if the meeting last night they had was about divvying up who they thought they could afford to lose.
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Mar 24, 2017 15:56
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New moderate "No" https://twitter.com/mikedebonis/status/845288021314453504
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Mar 24, 2017 15:56
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The Phlegmatist posted:Doesn't help that 75% of GOP reps have never been in the driver's seat before (house majority, GOP president) and many of them were elected running on a campaign platform of "I am the most intransigent person you will ever meet, vote for me!" The Senate will almost certainly gut the current bill and replace it with their own preferred version. The question is, what do the HFC folks do when that version gets bounced back to them for another vote.
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Mar 24, 2017 15:58
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So this is some fun data  https://twitter.com/AJentleson/status/845281073395388417 No wonder everyone's jumping ship on this thing.
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Mar 24, 2017 15:59
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Stop cross posting between here and the trump thread no one wants to read your dumb posts twice.
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Mar 24, 2017 16:00
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SHOP marketplace is not the same, it does the same thing but is on an individual employer basis. Multiple employer plans (which when several employers band together to provide a single plan) for health and retirement have been around like forever.
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Mar 24, 2017 16:02
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Here's a sobering take on how we might not be out of the woods yet: https://twitter.com/benwikler/status/845103339482370048 This all depends on the bill somehow making it out of the house though and that isn't looking good.
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Mar 24, 2017 16:03
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Kinda weakens the likely threats about shakeups in appointments and committee seats if the dang appropriations chair is ready to go against.
eviltastic fucked around with this message at 16:24 on Mar 24, 2017 |
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Mar 24, 2017 16:03
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So my wife is between jobs and I work from home which means we have no insurance. Because this vote is stressing me out my acid reflux is acting up and has gotten into my trachea which is incredibly painful and now I sound like the godfather. I couldn't figure out what was stressing me out so much until I realized that if they pass this bill in it's current form and it goes into law there's a good chance my family will go bankrupt paying for my brothers seizure medications because he can only find part time work and he's 27 years old. Either that or he just dies. I also obviously cannot afford to go to my gastro doctor until we're on my wife's new insurance plan, so that's fun. Dave Brat is my congressman so calling him is pointless.
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Mar 24, 2017 16:05
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esquilax posted:SHOP marketplace is not the same, it does the same thing but is on an individual employer basis. Multiple employer plans (which when several employers band together to provide a single plan) for health and retirement have been around like forever. I guess that goes with the public's fundamental misunderstanding of insurance. The SHOP marketplace would be a larger group than any collection of small businesses so should be cheaper.
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Mar 24, 2017 16:06
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On Terra Firma posted:So my wife is between jobs and I work from home which means we have no insurance. Because this vote is stressing me out my acid reflux is acting up and has gotten into my trachea which is incredibly painful and now I sound like the godfather. I couldn't figure out what was stressing me out so much until I realized that if they pass this bill in it's current form and it goes into law there's a good chance my family will go bankrupt paying for my brothers seizure medications because he can only find part time work and he's 27 years old. Either that or he just dies. Virginia is for Lovers of death
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Mar 24, 2017 16:08
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Rhesus Pieces posted:Here's a sobering take on how we might not be out of the woods yet: I get that argument and it is worrying, but once again, what kind of bill can the Senate GOP craft that doesn't have the same kind of political toxicity that the House bills have? Is reconciliation fast enough that the Senate can propose and vote on bill before CBO gets a chance to score it? On Terra Firma posted:Dave Brat is my congressman so calling him is pointless. You could pretend to hate any bill from the right and demand he sabotage.
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Mar 24, 2017 16:09
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axeil posted:So this is some fun data I'm sure all their voters will have forgotten it in 4 years time when the Republican party propaganda machine has again made them really angry about how immigrants are taking their jobs and blowing things up.
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Mar 24, 2017 16:09
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On Terra Firma posted:Dave Brat is my congressman so calling him is pointless. Call him and tell the bill doesn't go far enough and he should vote for nothing less than full repeal.
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Mar 24, 2017 16:13
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hobbesmaster posted:I guess that goes with the public's fundamental misunderstanding of insurance. The SHOP marketplace would be a larger group than any collection of small businesses so should be cheaper. Not necessarily, since each individual purchaser is still relatively small. I don't see any major reason why premiums would be lower than in the individual market, and a few reasons that they might be higher due to better benefits.
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Mar 24, 2017 16:15
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On Terra Firma posted:Dave Brat is my congressman so calling him is pointless. He's a Freedom Caucus no vote. That's the group where everyone is speculating about people folding. Calling him is totally not pointless. I mean, yeah, he's a markets-fix-everything guy who is not going to actually care about your situation, but talking about costs and huge deductibles and how this bill does nothing to fix them is what he's been basing his opposition on. edit: Brat is also one of the set that's been feeling a lot of heat at town hall meetings. eviltastic fucked around with this message at 16:20 on Mar 24, 2017 |
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Mar 24, 2017 16:15
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esquilax posted:Not necessarily, since each individual purchaser is still relatively small. I don't see any major reason why premiums would be lower than in the individual market, and a few reasons that they might be higher due to better benefits. I thought it operated the same way as the normal individual marketplace and prices were the same for everyone?
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Mar 24, 2017 16:17
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HappyHippo posted:Call him and tell the bill doesn't go far enough and he should vote for nothing less than full repeal. This sounds like a good plan, roughly comparable to "Democrats should register as Republicans in the primary and vote for Donald Trump as candidate, hur, hur."
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Mar 24, 2017 16:18
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eviltastic posted:Kinda weakens the likely threats about shakeups in appointments and committee seats with the dang appropriations chair is ready to go against. Yeah, I'm not sure what to make of it, but its an incredibly big deal. He's a major leadership ally. I think at a very bare minimum, it means he does not believe his vote is needed: either it is going to pass with him voting no, or it is going to fail even if he votes yes. However, I think it's more likely he has concluded its going to fail because it makes it much harder for the bill to pass. Moderates are likely to be needed, and its very hard to corral enough moderates when such a high-profile leadership ally won't walk the plank with them. The only alternative is that he believes the entire HFC is on board and they can tolerate a number of moderate defections and he's worked out who they will be and wants in. But I cannot imagine they're actually confident enough about that to issue the press release saying "no" now.
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Mar 24, 2017 16:18
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eviltastic posted:He's a Freedom Caucus no vote. That's the group where everyone is speculating about people folding. Calling him is totally not pointless. Seriously call this dude up and tell him to not give into the establishment and Paul Ryan's Obummercare 2.0. Firm up that no vote.
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Mar 24, 2017 16:19
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BarbarianElephant posted:This sounds like a good plan, roughly comparable to "Democrats should register as Republicans in the primary and vote for Donald Trump as candidate, hur, hur." Heh, I think this is playing with fire a little less than that
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Mar 24, 2017 16:21
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https://twitter.com/mepfuller/status/845291289058787330
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Mar 24, 2017 16:22
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^^^ Jeb lost, no need for Terry Schiavo jokes BarbarianElephant posted:This sounds like a good plan, roughly comparable to "Democrats should register as Republicans in the primary and vote for Donald Trump as candidate, hur, hur." All you have to do is phone the office and say you're against the bill and it'll go down as a tally mark in the "no calls" column. No need to say why. Now, if you're speaking against saying "no" as a general principle then that's different... As a Twin Cities resident I should call my house rep and see if needs some popcorn or something
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Mar 24, 2017 16:24
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On Terra Firma posted:if they pass this bill in it's current form and it goes into law there's a good chance my family will go bankrupt paying for my brothers seizure medications because he can only find part time work and he's 27 years old. Either that or he just dies. If I survive the heart-attack gauntlet of my 50s, I'll be in the same boat: Spend Everything or Die Quickly. I don't even want to know this nonsense is doing to intergenerational wealth accumulation for the middle/working class.
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Mar 24, 2017 16:27
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hobbesmaster posted:All you have to do is phone the office and say you're against the bill and it'll go down as a tally mark in the "no calls" column. No need to say why. Now, if you're speaking against saying "no" as a general principle then that's different... I suspect that "No, because it kicks too many people off healthcare" and "No, because it isn't a full repeal" get noted down differently in most offices. This is not going to be the final word, even if this plan fails. There will be a new one next month or next year. If Brat thinks his voters are all with him on "Full repeal" then he will act less cautiously than if he gets the impression there's a lot of people who are going to be rioting outside his office if it gets completely repealed.
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Mar 24, 2017 16:27
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hobbesmaster posted:I thought it operated the same way as the normal individual marketplace and prices were the same for everyone? Employers in the SHOP market can (must?) curate the plans and offer only a few of them, which means that they are a target of anger and employee noise if they only offer ones with extremely narrow networks or scant benefits. Which likely means the plans chosen will have higher premiums, even if the apples-to-apples price for a comparable plan in the individual market is the same. Not sure if this is actually was has happened though. A benefit of the SHOP marketplace is that it allows the employer to circumvent age discrimination rules and allow younger people to have lower premiums, which I suppose could actually result in more people enrolled and lower premiums than a normal group plan, but would not be different than the individual market.
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Mar 24, 2017 16:28
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On Terra Firma posted:Dave Brat is my congressman so calling him is pointless. Hey there friend central Virginian.   If it's any consolation, Brat is facing rising discontent in his district, and a primary challenge is likely given that he campaigned on being more accessible to his district and has spent the last few months hiding from it. (He will face a general challenge too obviously but God knows if even 2018 can provide enough of a wave to smash his incredibly punchable face.)Hopefully the picture of Brat getting Cantored is a balm to your soul.
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Mar 24, 2017 16:30
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BarbarianElephant posted:I suspect that "No, because it kicks too many people off healthcare" and "No, because it isn't a full repeal" get noted down differently in most offices. This is not going to be the final word, even if this plan fails. There will be a new one next month or next year. If Brat thinks his voters are all with him on "Full repeal" then he will act less cautiously than if he gets the impression there's a lot of people who are going to be rioting outside his office if it gets completely repealed. There aren't the votes for full repeal without replace. We know that because that was the original plan and they were forced to abandon it. This monstrosity is what they cobbled together when it was clear repeal and don't replace had nowhere near the votes needed.
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Mar 24, 2017 16:31
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evilweasel posted:There aren't the votes for full repeal without replace. We know that because that was the original plan and they were forced to abandon it. This monstrosity is what they cobbled together when it was clear repeal and don't replace had nowhere near the votes needed. Plan B may well be repeal without replace, hammered through somehow, if it seems popular.
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Mar 24, 2017 16:32
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https://twitter.com/kelsey_snell/status/845296017625010176 https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/845294621135683585 I wonder if anyone is tracking no statements made today in some clear list.
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Mar 24, 2017 16:33
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BarbarianElephant posted:If Brat thinks his voters are all with him on "Full repeal" then he will act less cautiously than if he gets the impression there's a lot of people who are going to be rioting outside his office if it gets completely repealed. He probably already has that impression, fwiw.
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Mar 24, 2017 16:34
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