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 avalanche inbound!  Diva Cupcake posted:That's not a surprising conclusion. They have a bottom 5 schedule like every year. Not really. code: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/ Playing the AFC East makes no real difference in their W-L either. Since 2003, win % (all games): 77.6% Conference games: 77.2% Division games: 77.9% Non-conference games: 79.0% Non-division games: 77.5% https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/trend/win_trends/non_conference?range=yearly_since_2003&sc=non_division
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Apr 11, 2017 18:31
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sean10mm posted:
Ok so 5 of the last 6 years have been below average.
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Apr 11, 2017 18:35
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Diva Cupcake posted:Ok so 5 of the last 6 years have been below average. <flexes>. Though that article postulates that the NFC South will be worse then the NFC West was last year. Does that really follow? the Falcons of 2017 have some questions, but should be as good as the 2016 Seahawks, and one of the Buccaneers/Saints/Panthers should be as good as the Cardinals were last year... but who's going to be Rams or 49ers Bad? Even if the Saints totally poo poo the bed again defensively, I can't see them being Rams bad, let alone the tire fire that was the 49ers.
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Apr 11, 2017 18:43
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evilweasel posted:the rich get richer, thanks afc east "the pats might win the super bowl again" man that's some advanced stats for sure
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Apr 11, 2017 18:47
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Football Outsiders needs to implement sortable tables. I bet they do theirs in Word.
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Apr 11, 2017 18:47
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sean10mm posted:To contribute something other than a smartass remark, let's see what FO says about how injured teams were last year: Interesting to see that despite Kelly leaving, the Eagles continued to be among the top teams in terms of games lost, whereas SF saw no benefit from Kelly joining. Bad outcome for sports science, unfortunately.
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Apr 11, 2017 18:53
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Aaron Schatz doing all he can to pick the Pats winning it all without "giant loving homer" as his excuse
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Apr 11, 2017 18:54
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Eli Wiggum posted:Aaron Schatz doing all he can to pick the Pats winning it all without "giant loving homer" as his excuse Hilariously, Football Outsiders was leading the charge on TOM BRADY IS DONE in 2013, with hot takes built around how Tom Brady was letting Aaron fuckin' Dobson down. Figures they'd go 180 degrees the other way just in time for Brady to turn into a pumpkin from old age. Wasn't DVOA like hilariously overrating the Eagles for most of the season, before gradually "correcting" to have the Patriots at #1?
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Apr 11, 2017 19:10
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Strength of schedule ratings are meaningless at this point
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Apr 11, 2017 19:12
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Volkerball posted:Strength of schedule ratings are meaningless at this point  The Patriots 2016 schedule looked fairly hard going into it and turned into a cupcake. Look at what were assumed to be the hard games going into the season: Arizona: Went from playoff team in 2015 to trash in 2016 Houston: Brock is even sorrier than was assumed, absolute pushover Bengals: Went from 12-4 to 9-6-1, pushover Steelers: Big Ben out hurt when they played, tough game turns into cupcake
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Apr 11, 2017 19:20
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sean10mm posted:Wasn't DVOA like hilariously overrating the Eagles for most of the season, before gradually "correcting" to have the Patriots at #1? It's not some mystery--the Eagles had a hot start that included a blowout win over PIttsburgh, while the Patriots were missing Tom Brady for 4 games. Once the season got to the point that those games were weighted less and the Eagles had started dropping games, things shook out more like you'd expect. DVOA weighs later games more heavily, it's not a manual correction that happens.
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Apr 11, 2017 19:30
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TheChirurgeon posted:It's not some mystery--the Eagles had a hot start that included a blowout win over PIttsburgh, while the Patriots were missing Tom Brady for 4 games. Once the season got to the point that those games were weighted less and the Eagles had started dropping games, things shook out more like you'd expect. DVOA weighs later games more heavily, it's not a manual correction that happens. Yeah, the Eagles started this year killing the Browns and Bears (before any formula would call them awful), then massacred the Steelers, and until game 10, didn't lose a game by more then a score, while beating the Falcons handily and taking the Cowboys to OT. That's exactly the kind of team you'd consider to be way better then their 5-4 record, but then their lack of receivers and other depth problems killed them and that was that. In comparison, the Patriots opened up with close wins over the Cardinals and Dolphins, before clocking the Texans and then getting housed by a bad Bills team. It's no surprise it'd take a lot more data for a formula to think this team was better then the above.
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Apr 11, 2017 19:52
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Blitz7x posted:Because all non-patriot afc East teams are garbage and will be for the foreseeable future Lol Oh ok keep polishing that hypothetical trophy in Oakland. Vegas. Fantasy land.
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Apr 11, 2017 20:07
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Being that Derek Carr as a rookie nearly dunked on New England at Foxboro and the Dolphins haven't sniffed a W in Foxboro in a decade idk I don't see it
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Apr 11, 2017 20:37
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If Carr doesn't break a leg last year they lose to Falcons in the Super Bowl
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Apr 11, 2017 20:40
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Almost_Got_%27Im
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Apr 11, 2017 20:42
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When was the last time Miami won in New England? 2008?
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Apr 11, 2017 20:43
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After Brady permanently loses his vision by laser pointer in the Mexico City game the Raiders are the new power in the AFC
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Apr 11, 2017 20:44
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I think it was.
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Apr 11, 2017 20:45
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Eli Wiggum posted:When was the last time Miami won in New England? 2008? ... yep, 2008. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/game_query.cgi?tm1=nwe&tm2=mia&yr=all huh, Miami still has a winning record against the Patriots overall They were 43-28 pre-Brady and 10-22 since. That's actually a little less bad then I thought it'd be.
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Apr 11, 2017 20:49
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let me tell you about the 5-0 super bowl lock vikings
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Apr 11, 2017 20:49
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Dubious posted:let me tell you about the 5-0 super bowl lock vikings With NFL MVP Sam Bradford at the helm?
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Apr 11, 2017 20:52
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I'm here to talk about the ELO rating of the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3
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Apr 11, 2017 20:52
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Blitz7x posted:After Brady permanently loses his vision by laser pointer in the Mexico City game the Raiders are the new power in the AFC See, everyone, this is what happens when the Raiders are decent again. Their fans do this. This is what you all wanted
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Apr 11, 2017 20:53
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You'll see You'll all see
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Apr 11, 2017 20:53
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The Raiders are good.
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Apr 11, 2017 20:56
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Patriots football, also referred to as edging, peaking, or surfing,[1] is a sports technique which may be practiced either inside the conference or with the entire NFL and involves the maintenance of a high level of play for an extended period of time without winning championships. When practiced by teams other than the Patriots, Patriots football allows the team to enjoy regular season and even playoff wins without waiting through the regression to the mean common after success. When the decision is made to allow success, the physical sensations may be much greater and more pleasurable than if the success were experienced conventionally. Patriots football is referenced as "doing your job" in Bill Belichick's The New Joy of Football (1993)[2] and "extended Lombardi trophies" in McDaniels and Steve Brady's 2000 book of the same name,[1] and is similar to the Steel Curtain technique used in the volume The Six Rings (1988) by Dick Vermeil. Since Patriots football prolongs the experience of powerful anticipatory sensations occurring during the final build-up to the Super Bowl, the physical demands of being kept or keeping ones team in this highly excited state for an extended time can induce a pleasurable, almost euphoric state, and at times creates changes within an fandom's perceived consciousness.[citation needed] Patriots football can involve either offense or defense being in control of the team's victory, or a team delaying their own victory during passing times of trouble (for instance, injury). To experience Patriots football, it's best to move to New England, as work by independent scientists reports the "bandwagon" approach is less effective [citation needed].
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Apr 11, 2017 20:57
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Uterine Lineup posted:The Raiders Yeah but gently caress them
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Apr 11, 2017 20:59
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a neat cape posted:See, everyone, this is what happens when the Raiders are decent again. Their fans do this. my favorite was all the TFF raiders posters stating that the cold weather at Arrowhead was to blame for the Raiders 2nd KC loss last year, and how it just wasn't fair that they had to play outside when Carr had a hurt pinkie
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Apr 11, 2017 21:00
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We lost to the Chiefs because they were better than us, but the clock is ticking and our time is nigh
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Apr 11, 2017 21:02
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Nobody defends the AFC East like Patriot fans. Like a bully protecting his nerd from other bullies. Kalli posted:... yep, 2008. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/game_query.cgi?tm1=nwe&tm2=mia&yr=all I think that was the game where the Dolphins unveiled the wildcat and Ronnie Brown clowned New England the whole day.
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Apr 11, 2017 21:02
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Yes, but unironically it's trueVolkerball posted:We lost to the Chiefs because they were better than us, but the clock is ticking and our time is nigh Get back in line soldier
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Apr 11, 2017 21:02
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I'm going to the kc game this year. If you want to knife fight hmu
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Apr 11, 2017 21:03
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Oh hey remember that spring football league that may or may not actually play games? They apparently released their rosters. I guess they only have two teams?/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/8312973/11.jpg) /cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/8312975/22.jpg) Which one of Mason Hutson, McLeod Bethel-Thompson, David Ash Bitch or Ricky Stanzi will be murdered on the field by Greg Hardy? Kellen Winslow Jr. is the only other biggish name as far as I can tell.
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Apr 11, 2017 21:23
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Oh man Noel Devine I thought that dude was going to destroy the NFL but be never got bigger after high school
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Apr 11, 2017 21:24
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I completely forgot about Ahmad Bradshaw and confused him with Brandon Jacobs
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Apr 11, 2017 21:27
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Last year before the season I adopted Carolina This year Oakland So I mean enjoy 9-7 because my luck after I cheer for your team sucks.
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Apr 11, 2017 21:29
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I just remembered that David Ash quit Texas football because he couldn't get over concussions. Now I'm kind of for real worried about some nobody OL guy trying to block Greg Hardy.
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Apr 11, 2017 21:38
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The New England Patriots have a huge SoS advantage over the rest of the NFL because they never have to play against the New England Patriots even one time each year, let alone twice.
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Apr 11, 2017 21:50
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Most teams utilize free agency and the draft to get better and half the afc east doesn't usually bother
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Apr 11, 2017 21:52
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