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Can, but won't. You honestly think Republicans won't be motivated to turn out their base while Democrats (who rarely vote in anything outside Presidential elections already) won't just give up after losing once?
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Apr 19, 2017 15:03
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He will get less votes in the runoff unless Trump does something like die.
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Apr 19, 2017 15:19
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Apr 19, 2017 15:24
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Xenoveritas posted:Can, but won't. You honestly think Republicans won't be motivated to turn out their base while Democrats (who rarely vote in anything outside Presidential elections already) won't just give up after losing once? Ah yes, I too remember how the Democrats failed to turnout in 2006, the last time they were a party out of power. Elephanthead posted:He will get less votes in the runoff unless Trump does something like die. Well good news, if his opponent gets the same amount of votes she got in the primary he still wins. All he needs is a handful of GOP voters to say "gently caress it" or a few more Dems to show up.
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Apr 19, 2017 15:30
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remember that karen handel is a martha coakley level of walking failure for republicans, don't underestimate her ability to gently caress up a sure thing
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Apr 19, 2017 15:30
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Zikan posted:remember that karen handel is a martha coakley level of walking failure for republicans, don't underestimate her ability to gently caress up a sure thing this is true, also i think voting twice requires a level of enthusiasm that the gop may not be able to muster. moreover, handel has to consolidate support from a lot of candidates - including diehard trumpers that hate her for distancing herself from the donald. the blanket election was basically 50/50 between dems and gop, the run-off could go either way even if handel consolidates support perfectly.
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Apr 19, 2017 15:33
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Concerned Citizen posted:this is true, also i think voting twice requires a level of enthusiasm that the gop may not be able to muster. moreover, handel has to consolidate support from a lot of candidates - including diehard trumpers that hate her for distancing herself from the donald. the blanket election was basically 50/50 between dems and gop, the run-off could go either way even if handel consolidates support perfectly. Yeah, if anything the runoff helps Ossoff. Remember all those times you saw polls where a generic Republican beats Obama? That was the GA-06 primary, and Ossoff almost won outright. Now the GOP has an actual candidate and a real candidate always does worse than the hypothetical "generic" candidate. She has to do the following to win: 1) Perfectly, and I do mean perfectly consolidate support from all the other GOP runners. Even missing out on 1% of last night's GOP vote is enough to sink her because of how close Ossoff came 2) Encourage demoralized GOP voters to vote again. Meanwhile, Dem voters are way more enthusiastic and shouldn't have any problems coming back out to say "gently caress you" to Trump a second time 3) Pray that Ossoff doesn't manage to find more voters either by turning out more Dems/Indies or swinging former GOP primary voters. Again, even if he finds another 1000-2000 she's in deep poo poo. That is not an easy scenario for an Obama-tier candidate and fortunately for us she's a Martha Coakley-tier candidate. The race is by no means in the bag, but I feel pretty confident. Of course confident doesn't mean rest on your laurels, you still have to be involved and fight.
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Apr 19, 2017 15:38
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expecting a republican house candidate OR Lunatic President Donald John Trump to not have one or more spectacular fuckups or public meltdowns in the next two months is incredibly wishful thinking
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Apr 19, 2017 16:06
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Concerned Citizen posted:this is true, also i think voting twice requires a level of enthusiasm that the gop may not be able to muster. moreover, handel has to consolidate support from a lot of candidates - including diehard trumpers that hate her for distancing herself from the donald. the blanket election was basically 50/50 between dems and gop, the run-off could go either way even if handel consolidates support perfectly. yea this is, I think, the key factor. The democrats have to 'consolidate' a tiny amount of voters not already on Han Solo's train most all of whom agree 'well yea better than a Republican'. Handel has to unify a base that includes a lot of flavors of crazy that hate the others
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Apr 19, 2017 16:36
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Fullhouse posted:expecting a republican house candidate OR Lunatic President Donald John Trump to not have one or more spectacular fuckups or public meltdowns in the next two months is incredibly wishful thinking come on government shutdown
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Apr 19, 2017 16:40
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sexpig by night posted:yea this is, I think, the key factor. The democrats have to 'consolidate' a tiny amount of voters not already on Han Solo's train most all of whom agree 'well yea better than a Republican'. Handel has to unify a base that includes a lot of flavors of crazy that hate the others Rs always circle the wagons in the end.
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Apr 19, 2017 17:26
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Agean90 posted:alternately he only needs that many repubs to not turn out. The election can go either way. thats how many votes need to be (D)lost/(R)found by election officials.
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Apr 19, 2017 17:44
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new phone who dis posted:Rs always circle the wagons in the end. You'd think if the election of Trump should have taught people anything it would be this. Rs will always hold their nose in the end to ensure that a Republican is elected. Ds - not so much.
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Apr 19, 2017 17:46
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Just because this isn't a win doesn't mean this isn't a warning bell for less red districts. It's looking like the D base is electrified to say gently caress you to everyone.
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Apr 19, 2017 18:10
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Ossoff sitting at 40c on PI, which equates to a 40% chance of winning the run-off.
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Apr 19, 2017 18:42
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new phone who dis posted:Rs always circle the wagons in the end. then we might as well just give up and kill ourselves because nothing will ever go our way again gently caress off with this poo poo, if we lose we should at least go down fighting
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Apr 19, 2017 18:58
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:gently caress off with this poo poo, if we lose we should at least go down fighting this but literally
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Apr 19, 2017 19:01
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Fullhouse posted:expecting a republican house candidate OR Lunatic President Donald John Trump to not have one or more spectacular fuckups or public meltdowns in the next two months is incredibly wishful thinking Note that during the counting Trump officially backed down from Iran. Yeah, it's going to be a hard two months if the GOP thinks that Trump won't play against them by basically being his usually uncontrollable self. cheese eats mouse posted:Just because this isn't a win doesn't mean this isn't a warning bell for less red districts. It's looking like the D base is electrified to say gently caress you to everyone. And the independents are not liking Trump at all. Trump is pissing off everybody to the point where the GOP is giving up and everybody else wants him gone. Vincent Van Goatse posted:then we might as well just give up and kill ourselves because nothing will ever go our way again Exactly.
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Apr 19, 2017 19:13
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:then we might as well just give up and kill ourselves because nothing will ever go our way again you have me Vincent Van Goatse posted:gently caress off with this poo poo, if we lose we should at least go down fighting you lost me
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Apr 19, 2017 19:17
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:then we might as well just give up and kill ourselves because nothing will ever go our way again
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Apr 19, 2017 19:21
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zegermans posted:you have me
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Apr 19, 2017 20:32
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Agean90 posted:the fact that the democrats are putting ANY effort into a southern state should be endlessly praised so they keep loving doing it. You think the turnout last night was a good showing? Now imagine how it would have been if the democrats had been pushing in that region over the course of the last decade.
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Apr 20, 2017 00:09
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zegermans posted:you have me
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Apr 20, 2017 00:10
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also please dont attribute a democratic shift to anything clinton did. that is much more attributable to significant demographic shifts due to more tech jobs in the area
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Apr 20, 2017 00:11
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comedyblissoption posted:also please dont attribute a democratic shift to anything clinton did. that is much more attributable to significant demographic shifts due to more tech jobs in the area clinton absolutely exploited those shifts faster than we expected especially in georgia of all places. the problem was she did it while ignoring the goddamn rust belt but hey
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Apr 20, 2017 00:14
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comedyblissoption posted:ah yes let me thank the heavens for these neoliberal turds falling from the sky at least its not a neoliberal i shout as creationism becomes mandatory in schools. Dont get me wrong, i wish he wasnt a boring centrist too, but gently caress unless you wanna run what else can you do v  v
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Apr 20, 2017 00:19
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Agean90 posted:at least its not a neoliberal i shout as creationism becomes mandatory in schools.
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Apr 20, 2017 01:43
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y'know I'm a Bernie Bro socialist of long standing but I'll take a milquetoast smoothbrain centrist Dem who's susceptible to browbeating from the left over a jackass Republican who isn't win first, purge afterwards
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Apr 20, 2017 01:44
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:then we might as well just give up and kill ourselves because nothing will ever go our way again Hoping you win because your enemy infights isn't going down fighting. It's going down with your fingers crossed.
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Apr 20, 2017 02:14
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new phone who dis posted:Rs always circle the wagons in the end. Trump won by 2 and the congressional won by like 20 points so this seems obviously false
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Apr 20, 2017 02:46
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:y'know I'm a Bernie Bro socialist of long standing but I'll take a milquetoast smoothbrain centrist Dem who's susceptible to browbeating from the left over a jackass Republican who isn't I'd rather have someone there that I agree with 80% of the time and who is able to be badgered on the 20% than a guy I have to badger to literally do anything I agree with. But I guess I should not vote and just hold out hope that the anime communists go all Enders Game and figure out how to tweet with such marvelous insight that they change the entire country to wanting FULL COMMUNISM NOW.
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Apr 20, 2017 03:09
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This isn't your little slice of D&D you fuckers
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Apr 20, 2017 05:02
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Azathoth posted:But I guess I should not vote and just hold out hope that the anime communists go all Enders Game and figure out how to tweet with such marvelous insight that they change the entire country to wanting FULL COMMUNISM NOW. I don't really know what half of this means but it sounds like it would be pretty badass
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Apr 20, 2017 05:13
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new phone who dis posted:Rs always circle the wagons in the end. They always circle the wagon but they don't always circle the wagon perfectly, which is what they might very well need here.
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Apr 20, 2017 07:18
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:y'know I'm a Bernie Bro socialist of long standing but I'll take a milquetoast smoothbrain centrist Dem who's susceptible to browbeating from the left over a jackass Republican who isn't too bad the only ones being given support to win are the smoothbrain centrists. anyone who hasn't spent years in the D.C. machine can't get $20k out of the party while the centrists gets millions upon millions
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Apr 20, 2017 09:36
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Concerned Citizen posted:Trump won by 2 and the congressional won by like 20 points so this seems obviously false I'm just saying that it's poor strategy to sit around and hope for your opponent to fail. I get the sentiment and I hope the D wins, but it's not really "fighting the good fight" to speculate about whether your opponent may or may not fracture in your favor, especially when they have a long historical record of not doing so.
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Apr 20, 2017 20:16
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I don't think anyone's saying that the Democrats shouldn't try and win these seats, I just find the whole "we beat the spread, we beat the spread!!!" cheerleading to be hilarious. OK, sure, you beat the spread. You still lost, but you didn't lose as badly as you could have. Maybe some day you'll manage to win a seat somewhere.
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Apr 20, 2017 20:44
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ossoff doesn't strike me as a smoothbrain neolib, or at least not as extreme of one as some of the complete fuckers that they've thrown to the fire. he's no james thompson though
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Apr 20, 2017 20:59
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Xenoveritas posted:I don't think anyone's saying that the Democrats shouldn't try and win these seats, I just find the whole "we beat the spread, we beat the spread!!!" cheerleading to be hilarious. OK, sure, you beat the spread. You still lost, but you didn't lose as badly as you could have. Maybe some day you'll manage to win a seat somewhere. Thing is, he didn't lose. K2SO4 candidate lost, but Ossoff is headed to the runoff. If he loses that, then its an apt comparison
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Apr 20, 2017 21:18
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Your only hope for him to lose is that Republicans, some of the most reliable voters, stay at home, while Democrats, who rarely if at all ever vote in anything that isn't a Presidential election, show up again. Sure, he might not lose. I wouldn't put money on it though.
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Apr 20, 2017 21:45
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